USDNOK
USD/NOK Dominant resistance is testedAlthough many resistance levels were passed on other US Dollar's pairs during the fundamental surge of the Buck generated testimony of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell., the USD/NOK pair’s resistance has held its ground.
Namely, the resistance of the large scale pattern, which represents the pair’s decline since late 2017, has held its ground. Its upper trend line had enough power to hold. However, it was strengthened by the weekly R1 at the 7.9194 level.
Meanwhile, during the recent trading sessions a new long term pattern was spotted, which is a result of the pair bouncing off the lower trend line of a multi year pattern. To keep it short, the mentioned patterns are set to face one another in the upcoming trading sessions and a triangle pattern is likely to form and result in a break out.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rate trades in channel downThe US Dollar has been trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone since mid-November. As apparent on the chart, the Greenback has moved in neat channels within the bounds of this pattern.
After reversing from the senior channel and the 50.00% Fibo retracement at 8.0271 on February 9, the pair has since formed a new short-term channel down.
Taking all this into account, it is expected that the Greenback might continue depreciating against its Norwegian counterpart within the following trading sessions. This movement could be confined within the drawn junior channel.
A possible downside target for the following week could be the 2016/2018 high of 7.6353. The US Dollar did already reverse from this level on two separate occasions during 2018; thus, a subsequent surge is the most likely scenario.
USDNOK levelsWeak Norwegian growth data pushing the usdnok higher towards key levels.
First level circled is .5 fib retrace 21/12 -> 1/2, and the 161.8% extension off the inverse H&S. R3 also in area
Second and stronger level is the mid pitchfork line, the .618 retrace 21/12 -> 1/2, the 200DMA & the 200% extension off the inverse H&S. R4 also in area
Looking to short these rallies.
A look at the pitchfork:
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair respects senior channelThe US Dollar has made a sharp recovery against the Norwegian Krone during the past trading sessions. This strong upward movement comes after the pair bounced off the bottom boundary of a long-term descending channel circa 7.63. Given that this line was respected, the pair is likely to advance even further within the following week or two, setting the 8.05 area as a possible target.
In the short term, however, traders might see a brief correction south down to the combined support of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP located at 7.71. In case this area does not hold, the US Dollar should be stopped by the channel line near 7.63.
Subsequently, the rate should accelerate and move higher, as already described previously.
usdnok inverted h&sinverted H&S was shown in the 1hr timeframe of the pair so looking to buy above neckline
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair consolidates near four-month lowThe US Dollar has been trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone since mid-October. The bottom boundary of this pattern was tested last Wednesday when the pair hit a four-month low of 7.82.
It has remained relatively stable during the past week. The Greenback re-tested the aforementioned low a few sessions later but nevertheless failed to form a distinct wave either up or down.
It is expected that the pair continues to approach the upper boundary of both channels near the 7.88 mark. The steepness of the longer-term channel demonstrate that this pattern could be breached in the nearest time. However, the Greenback should still overcome a significant resistance cluster set by the 100– and 55-hour SMAs, the weekly PP and the monthly S3 circa 7.87; the 200-hour SMA is likewise located nearby at 7.92.
A successful breakout of these levels might suggest that the upside momentum towards the 8.01 area is to persist for several sessions.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Breached long-term channelThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone in a channel up since late August.
During this period of appreciation, the pair managed to reach its six-month high of 8.4161 on December 21. After that, the bearish sentiment took over and thus allowed for a breakout of the aforementioned long-term channel earlier this week.
It is expected that the Greenback could be tended north during the following sessions; however, this upward movement might not be very significant. A possible target in this case might be the 8.2690 area, as the monthly and weekly PPs and the 200-hour SMA are located nearby.
By and large, the bearish sentiment should eventually prevail and thus push the rate lower.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Greenback re-tests channelThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone in a channel up for the last four months. The trading range within this pattern, however, shifted upwards when the rate failed to reach the bottom channel boundary three weeks ago. The same situation occurred last week.
As apparent on the chart, the Greenback was trading between 8.2523 and 8.3509 since late November. A massive surge last week breached this range and allowed for a re-test of the upper channel boundary circa 8.39.
Technical indicators suggest that the rate is likely to either move lower or remain near 8.38 during the following day. The nearest resistance is the monthly R1 and weekly R2 circa 8.41, while significant support is set by the 100– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 8.31.
It is likely that the US Dollar starts weakening during the second half of this week, thus approaching the monthly PP at 8.2551.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rate stranded in wedgeAfter reaching the 2016/2017 low of 7.7018 on September 8, USD/NOK started a period of recovery in an ascending channel.
If looking at the current situation, the pair’s latest wave down began two weeks ago and it is gradually leading the US Dollar towards the bottom boundary of the previously-mentioned channel. This movement has been stranded in a falling wedge.
From a theoretical point of view, all indications point to a soon breakout north. Given that the pair retraced from the 50.0% Fibo, the Greenback might still push slightly lower down to the 8.09 area where the 38.2% Fibo and the weekly S1 are located. However, the rate’s subsequent movement should be to the upside.
Meanwhile, the steepness of the channel up is unlikely to hold for long now, and thus the pair could eventually break the bottom boundary of this pattern—most probably during next week. A medium-term upside target is expected to be the monthly R1 at 8.3142.
USDNOK long for month of NovemberUSDNOK broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with October's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin.
My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0.
Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target.
These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure.
* End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDNOK UpdateUSDNOK is trading in a bullish impulse, with corrective wave iv in progress. We expect to see a three-wave pullback within wave iv, before a new rally higher into final wave five of 3 comes in play. Support for wave iv can be seen around the upper channel line.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
#USDSEK trade to holdI posted couple of weeks back on the bullish view on this pair and we also got the anticipated shallow pullback since. Entering the trade now is still not late. Good if you stay in the trade for a month or two with tiny lots and wait for the price to play out to the TP.
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Author of 3 trading books
Creator of 10/20/30 Rule for trade strategy validation/development
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDNOK UpdateUSDNOK is unfolding a nice bearish leg, which we see it as blue wave one and now wave two in the making. We can see first wave one fully unfolded, so upcoming reaction higher can be the following wave two that may later search for resistance near the Fibonacci ratio of 50.0 or 61.8 and make a new drop lower.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
USD/NOK tests channelThe US Dollar has strengthened against the Norwegian Krone since mid-August, thus forming a channel up.
If looking at the pair’s movement during the past two weeks, a junior ascending channel could also be distinguished. The Greenback is trading near the lower boundary of this short-term pattern, suggesting that a reversal might be in sight. This assumption is likewise supported by technical oscillators that are located near the oversold territory.
A possible point of reversal might be the weekly S1 circa 7.9344. The subsequent movement is expected to be north, as no indication points to a possible breakout of the junior formation. The nearest upside target is the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 7.9850.
However, the rate might push even higher towards the weekly R1 at 8.0404. In the medium term, it should move towards the bottom boundary of the senior pattern in the 7.90/94 territory.
long channelElimizde ne var ;
-emalarda olusan golden cross
-saglam bir yükselis trendi
-güclenen dolar endeksi ve 10 yilliklar
- petroldeki muazzam düsüs
usdnok 4 saatlikte güzel bir trend olusturdu ve buy on the dips stop seviiyemiz 7.69900
USDNOK Long- Expecting Higher Highs to Be FormedPotential Long oppurtunity from 61.8% fib level. Price is currently Sitting on a Key Area Of Daily Support.
