USD/NOK approaches medium-term channelThe US Dollar has appreciated against the Norwegian Krone during the past four weeks. As a result, the pair has formed two patterns, namely, a channel up and a descending wedge.
It seems that the junior formation has already reached maturity; thus, a breakout, most probably to the upside, is likely to occur already in this session. Technical oscillators are close to being in the oversold area. Thus, the base scenario favours the US Dollar falling down to the bottom channel boundary circa 7.78 and subsequently reversing to the upside.
Nevertheless, the Greenback faces a significant resistance set by the 200-, 55– and 100-hour SMA and the weekly and monthly PPs in the 7.8200/7.8600 area. If this territory is breached, it is likely that the rate tries to approach the upper channel boundary during September.
USDNOK
USDNOK Short-31.08.2017probability of a disappointing NFP is now high after several technical setups. In-fact most USD pairs are pointing to USD weakness. Fundamentally, earnings and jobs for August 2017 is expected to slowdown after that strong July 2017 growth. So, keeping up with the trend means liquidating USD and buying other currency pairs like Yen, Euro and NOK.
NOK and CAD have a positive correlation and right now, it is lagging the Lonnie
Trading will be executed as follows
Sell: 7.776
stop Loss: 7.855
Take Profit: 1:3 risk reward ratio
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownUSD/NOK is currently trading in a short-term channel down. The given patter was formed when the US Dollar lost value against the Norwegian Krone within the last week, thus resulting in a breakout of a more senior channel.
The rate halted at a two-month low of 7.7276 and has since recovered minor loses. Even though daily technical indicators flash bearish signals, the rate is expected to appreciate until the upper channel boundary near the 7.80 mark prior to resuming its downward momentum.
The upper channel line roughly matches the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 7.81—a level that could eventually reverse the US Dollar to the downside. The fall may be limited by the weekly and monthly S1s in the 7.67/68 area.
DXY- possible dead cat bounceDXY retraced 61,8% from recent highs and touched the lower end of the ''trading-channel'' since the top, which favours a possible bounce from recent levels. In that matter, we have seen some traction on USD pairs, such as USDNOK and USDCAD reacting upwards today.
In that matter, this setup offers a long setup with a fair risk/reward ration. Long from current levels, stop loss if we close below recent lows and target up against 100 area.
Play safe!
RSI Quick Scan - Forex (aka Fiat)Here is my quick scan of the market.
Of course please don't just buy in Long/Short just because strength shows overbought/oversold.
There is always more room to 0 or 100.
1Day:
AUDCHF - 26 RSI
USDCHF - 29 RSI
USDSGD - 28 RSI
USDDKK - 26RSI
Honorable mentions:
USDPLN - 30 RSI Rising ATR
NZDCHF - 30 RSI
USDNOK - 31 RSI High ATR
EURNZD - 75 RSI
EURSEK - 72 RSI
EURTRY - 67 RSI (Bull Div)
A little extra work defining key candle swings/fib support levels with price alerts tends to pan out on at least one.
I tend to look for:
key candle momentum swings
day close fractals
dbl bottom/top
USDNOK - Search, ask and you will find...I had not clue about this chart.
So, I was laying back, squeezed my eyes and let it shine on me (...nope, not smoked anything hehe...).
Then it comes together, peace by peace.
Here's how I approach any new analysis.
- Swings & Pivots
- Identify the trend and the flow
- some support & resistance
- action/reaction & forks
- patterns...as far as I can see them (...because I'm a really bad pattern trader)
- fractals
- anything else (...letting creativity flow)
During this process, I delete the whole paintings a couple times.
So this is like Zen to me and hell, I really love what I do §8-)
Let's see if YOU can make something out of this.
Please do me this little favor and let me know if you go long or short.
P!
USDNOK is facing a crossroadAs mentioned last week, we did not have any clear direction and the pair reflects high volatility for time being. However, we have due to French election touched the upper trendline since the highs in 2016 and now reacted down.
From a weekly timeframe, a weekly close below 8,60-8,58 would suggest some kind of retracement, where support is found at 8,40 and lows 8,30's. Several other indicators are also now slowly turing down, which could support a lower move.
In that matter, a short-setup could offer a fair risk-reward.
Trade setup:
Short entry from 8,58-8,60. Stop loss if we close above 8,65 on a daily timeframe.
Target 1 is 8,40 and target 2 is 8,30.
Play it safe and goodluck!
Important level coming up in USDNOKSince the lows in february this year, the trend has been upwards with higher highs and higher lows. But recent top above 8,65 came with a negativ divergence and now we might face a possible trend-change. However, the level around 8,52-8,50 should be key for the next big move in USDNOK. Failure to hold this level, we will confirm a new counter trend with lower highs and lower lows.
The levels to watch for, as in bull/bear line is 8,52-8,50. On the upside we have great resistance just above 8,65, and while on the downside we should find great support 8,41-8,43.
Play it safe untill we see a better trade-setup, offering a better risk/reward.