Get started

USDNOK

USD/NOK viewI suggest that traders short the Norwegian Krone against the USD for the following reasons: /dx has broken out of its ~2yr consolidation pattern amid Trump's fiscal stimulus promises and subsequent repricing of the Fed's hiking cycle in anticipation of higher US growth and inflation. NOK remains highly vulnerable to /cl as >50% of Norway's exports are energy-related (34% = crude petroleum and 25% = petroleum gases). Potential OPEC-inspired oil volatility and vulnerability (if a strong cut, or any cut at all, fails to materalise, which is my personal base case given recent rhetoric from Saudi Arabia; namely words to the effect of, "balancing can occur without cuts") will weigh heavily on NOK, sending this pair much higher. On a more long-term level, oil and gas companies in Norway have drastically cut spending forecasts for 2017, deepening what was already a record reduction in offshore investment. Main risk to the trade is OPEC cutting production significantly (or at least creating that perception to markets). In this case, I would use the opportunity to buy USDNOK at lower levels as any material increase in oil prices (to around $55-$60 on a 'strong cut') will enable US shale producers to "come online" (with lag, of course), aiding supply and sending /cl to near current levels again. It is very difficult to envisage a world in which oil comfortably sustains above $60 under current conditions. A token OPEC cut will not change this, I do not believe. $DB is gunning for 9.05000 by Q2 '17; $GS and $MS also want around 9.00000 with time. I personally look to buy this pair on dips.
Long
by jamiegleave
NOK has potential for long term downtrend thx to Brent oil slumpOANDA:BCOUSD has decided to consolidate sideways regardless of typical US holiday rallies, along with the huge oil deposit finding in Texas + overall shale/natural gas boom in the Dakotas/Canada, the overall supply of oil is vastly increased yet the demand from traditional sources is in decline, thus this will create a downward trend for oil prices in the coming months unless international and government sources manufacture artificial scarcity. Because oil is down, NOK will follow it's pattern downwards instead of breaking the green line. Expect a good long term shorting position to open in the first weeks of Dec. as oil prices hit the 8.6ish barrier. Should oil prices rally through the green resistance line, expect a historic rally on the USDNOK which will push prices past their 10 year high.
Short
by PepeInvestmentGroup
USDNOK - Possible short-setup USDNOK has now tested trendline established since early 2016, where the last touch point was due Brexit. The recent move upward has been on declining volume and created a negative divergence which supports a possible failure of breaking resistance @ 8,50. In that matter, this pair should offer a nice risk/reward for a short play. Trade-idea: Short entry between 8,45-8,50 Stop-loss if we close above 8,52 on a daily timeframe Target 1: 8,30 Target 2: 8,20 (if Target 1 is reached, move stop down to 8,40 on a daily timeframe. Play safe!
Short
by ACROFX