XAU/USD - Channel Breakout (26.06.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3385
2nd Resistance – 3410
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DJ FXCM Index
Gold Holds Above $3340 as Dollar Drops and Fed Uncertainty Rises GOLD OVERVIEW
Gold Holds Gains as Dollar Weakens and Fed Uncertainty Grows
Gold climbed above $3,340 per ounce on Thursday, supported by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar amid growing dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
Adding to market speculation, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted he may announce a new Fed Chair as early as September or October, potentially reducing Jerome Powell’s influence before his term ends in June and boosting expectations for a more accommodative policy stance.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – XAU/USD
Gold shows bearish potential if the price can stabilize below the pivot level at 3,341.
However, while trading above 3,341, a short-term correction toward 3,364–3,365 is likely before any renewed selling pressure.
Today’s U.S. GDP release may add further volatility and direction to the market.
Key Levels
Pivot Line: 3,341
Resistance: 3,364 → 3,373
Support: 3,320 → 3,302
previous idea:
DXY Short-term rebound quite likely.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within almost a 3-year Channel Down, which has assisted us in choosing the right levels to sell high and buy low.
Despite being now on its 2nd major Bearish Leg, we see a short-term bounce possibly up to August quite likely based on the previous major Bearish Leg. As you see, the current setup resembles the April 13 023 Low after which the price rebounded short-term just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level, only to get rejected later and complete the bottom on the 1.1 Fib extension.
Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical. Therefore, before diving below 96.000, we believe a 100.000 test is quite likely.
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DXY CRACK! BAD JUJU!After Trump unilaterally imposed Tariffs (Taxes) on its citizens to buy imported goods from the rest of the world, promising 90 deals in 90 days, "in two weeks", the demand for the dollar payment system has collapsed by -12% reducing purchasing power for all $ holders'.
Imports of goods mean exporting $s to the rest of the world. As a world reserve currency (WRC), the US gets the benefit of seeing those $s invested back into the US. That creates demand for the $ payment system, and raises $ holders' purchasing power, reducing inflation.
What else happens? A bit complicated but I will try to explain. High demand for $ means the US indirectly exports inflation. Meaning, more $ for the same amount of goods and services. However, as a WRC, the US is not really exporting inflation. That is a bit inaccurate bc the US payment system as a WRC is actually includes a lot more goods and services from the entire planet. This makes sense if you think about it. However only going one way, meaning as long as the demand from the world for our payment system, more $ required by the world reflect more goods and services. As such not inflationary.
Now let's reverse it so you can see why it is not entirely accurate. Should the Global Economy (which is worth today about $100 trillion,) demand ever drop off. The $ value will collapse as people sell their $ holdings in exchange for other currencies. What you are seeing right now in this chart with a CRACK in it.
The US GDP is currently about $30 trillion. There is no way! A $ payment system designed for a $100T economy can suddenly absorb all those $ in a $30T economy. Inflation would skyrocket as more and more $ chase the same amount of goods and services ($30T). This is not rocket science. This is basic 3rd-grade arithmetic!
This CRACK! could be very bad JUJU!
CAUTION is in order. Don't let normality bias fool you. No matter how you feel about Trump. It is irrelevant to basic arithmetic.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Critical Moment
With an unprecedented pace of weakness of US Dollar,
DXY Index is now testing a historic weekly support cluster.
If the market breaks it today and closes below that, it will
open a potential for much more depreciation.
Next historic support will be 95.5 and a downtrend will continue.
Today's US fundamentals can be a trigger.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!
Euro's Surge on USD Weakness – Is 1.20 the Next Stop?EURUSD: Euro's Surge on USD Weakness – Is 1.20 the Next Stop?
Hello TradingView Community!
The EURUSD pair is currently commanding significant attention with its strong upward momentum.
🌍 Fundamental Highlights: Euro's Tailwinds & USD's Headwinds
The Euro has demonstrated notable strength, recently breaching the 1.17 mark to hit its highest level in over 3.5 years. According to ING, if this momentum holds, the next target could be 1.20, contingent on continued USD weakness.
The US Dollar faces considerable pressure following news that President Trump intends to name a successor to Fed Chair Powell soon, sparking concerns about the Fed's independence. Such speculation often leads to expectations of a more 'dovish' monetary policy, weakening the USD.
Adding to the Euro's support are the NATO agreement to increase defense spending targets to 5% and President Trump's seemingly "less aggressive" stance towards the EU.
In summary: Should USD depreciation persist, not only the Euro but other asset classes might also attract capital inflows, particularly given the ongoing uncertainties surrounding inflation risks and monetary policy.
📊 EURUSD Technical Outlook (H4/M30 Chart):
Our technical analysis of the EURUSD chart (image_b73298.png) confirms a clear and robust uptrend, characterized by successive higher highs and higher lows. The EMAs are in a bullish alignment, reinforcing this upward trajectory.
Upside Targets (Potential BUY Zones):
1.17807: The initial potential target if the bullish momentum continues.
1.18458: A higher target representing the next potential resistance zone.
Key Support Levels (Potential BUY Zones for pullbacks):
1.16070: A strong support level where demand could emerge after a correction.
An implied intermediate support around 1.166xx (visually suggested by price action between current levels and 1.16070) could also offer buying opportunities after minor pullbacks.
🎯 EURUSD Trading Plan:
BUY Zone 1 (Intermediate Pullback):
Entry: 1.16600 - 1.16700
SL: 1.16450
TP: 1.16800 - 1.17000 - 1.17200 - 1.17500 - 1.17807 - 1.18000 - 1.18300 - 1.18458
BUY Zone 2 (Strong Support):
Entry: 1.16070
SL: 1.15900
TP: 1.16200 - 1.16400 - 1.16600 - 1.16800 - 1.17000 - 1.17300 - 1.17600 - 1.17807 - 1.18458
SELL Zone (Consider only at upside targets with clear reversal signals):
Entry: 1.18458 (This is an upside target, but also a potential resistance for selling if strong reversal signals appear).
SL: 1.18600
TP: 1.18300 - 1.18000 - 1.17807 - 1.17500 - 1.17200 - 1.17000 - 1.16800
⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor:
Fed Leadership News: Any official announcements regarding the Fed Chair succession will trigger significant USD volatility.
Eurozone Economic Data: Upcoming inflation, GDP, and employment reports.
ECB Statements: The European Central Bank's stance on monetary policy.
Geopolitical Developments: Major tensions or agreements can influence market sentiment.
Trade smart and always manage your risk effectively! Wishing everyone a profitable trading day!
Potential bulllish reveresal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot, which aligns with the Fibonacci confluence and could reverse to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.08
1st Support: 96.44
1st Resistance: 98.10
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
USDCAD Strongest long-term Sell in the market right now.At the beginning of the year (January 15, see chart below), we made an unpopular bearish call at the time, hinting that the USDCAD pair was approaching its Resistance Zone, hence a multi-year Top was in order:
As you can see, the moment the price hit that Resistance Zone, it got instantly rejected and a new Bearish Leg started, which has extended up to this day. This time we view this on the 1M time-frame where the Support levels are more clearly illustrated.
More particularly, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) poses as the first one, in fact it has been holding since September 2022. Our Target is still located at 1.26000, which is marginally above the 0236 Fibonacci level, which has been the 1st Target during both previous Bearish Legs. Also it is where the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) is headed to, and there are high chances of a long-term bounce there.
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WHAT IS THE EXPECTED RETURN and DURATION of this GOLD Bull Run?Well, when measured against the DXY index, a clear trend becomes apparent.
A Golden Bull typically lasts about 40 quarters, which is essentially 1 decade (give or take a quarter).
Similar to #Bitcoin and its cyclical bull markets within a larger secular bull, the returns tend to decrease over time.
However, it seems that a triple-digit Gold price relative to the DXY is on the horizon at the very least.
What would that look like if the DXY were to hit a new low around 69? This would suggest a Gold price of $6900 at a ratio of 100:1.
A Gold price of $12K with a DXY of 80 only requires a ratio of 150...
Thus, a five-digit Gold price is certainly within the realm of possibility.
I have forecasts that extend as high as $12K.
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Testing Long-Term Channel SupportBy MJTrading:
Chart Overview:
The US Dollar Index has now approached a major technical confluence zone that could define the next directional move. Price is pressing into the Danger Zone near the lower boundary of a multi-year descending channel, with an Ultimate Oversell Target sitting just below.
🔹 Key Technical Highlights:
Long-Term Down Channel (Daily & Weekly):
The DXY has respected this structure for several years.
Price is currently challenging the lower boundary, a zone where reactions often occur.
Danger Zone (~95–96):
A historically reactive area.
Prior demand and channel floor converge here.
Ultimate Oversell Target (~89–90):
Marked as a deeper potential exhaustion area if the channel fails.
Moving Averages:
15 EMA ~97.8
60 EMA ~99.3
Price remains below both EMAs, confirming persistent bearish momentum.
🔹 Potential Scenarios:
Scenario A (Green Path):
A bounce off current support could trigger a relief rally back toward 98–100, targeting the mid-channel and EMAs.
Scenario B (Red Path):
A breakdown below ~95 could accelerate selling pressure, aiming for the Ultimate Oversell Target (~89).
🔹 How I See It:
This is a high-risk inflection zone. Any bullish setups here remain counter-trend and require confirmation via strong reversal signals. Conversely, a decisive breakdown could have significant implications for USD pairs and commodities.
💡 Notes:
This chart includes the weekly inset view for broader context.
Keep risk management tight in this volatile area.
🔹 Reminder:
This idea is for educational purposes only—not financial advice.
💬 How are you positioning around the USD? Share your thoughts and charts below!
#Hashtags:
#MJTrading #DXY #USDollarIndex #Dollar #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #ChartAnalysis #PriceAction #FX #USD #Majors #DollarWeakness #DollarStrength #SupportAndResistance #TrendAnalysis #MarketOutlook
PCEs & attacks on PowellWe are carefully monitoring the PCEs today, to see, "wins" this small battle in the rate-lowering war. Let's dig in.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Overlap resistance ahead?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot, which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 98.50
1st Support: 97.21
1st Resistance: 99.30
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAU/USD (Gold) - H1 - Wedge Breakout (21.06.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3425
2nd Resistance – 3451
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Bullish momentum to rise?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6457
1st Support: 0.6388
1st Resistance: 0.6546
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.59
1st Support: 97.69
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD Channel Up formed bottom. Heavily bullish.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the May 12 Low. Today it hit its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since May 12 and having just broken also above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it confirmed that the pattern has already priced its bottom.
This is initiating the new Bullish Leg and based on the previous two, it should grow by at least +3.21%. We have a modest short-term Target at 1.1800.
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GBPUSD: The Big Short Opportunity?(Breakout Confirmation Needed)🚨 GBP/USD BANK HEIST ALERT: The Bearish Robbery Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🚨
🔥 Steal Pips Like a Pro – Thief Trading Strategy Inside! 🔥
🌟 GREETINGS, MARKET PIRATES! 🌟
🤑 To all the Money Makers, Risk Takers & Midnight Breakers!
Based on our 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (a deadly mix of technical + fundamental + intermarket analysis), we’re plotting a massive bearish heist on GBP/USD ("The Cable").
This is not financial advice—just a strategic robbery plan for those who dare to trade smart.
📉 THE HEIST STRATEGY (SHORT ENTRY FOCUS)
🎯 Target Zone: 1.32300 (or escape earlier if the market turns)
⚡ High-Risk, High-Reward Play: Oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal setup.
💣 Trap Level: Where bullish traders get wrecked.
🔑 ENTRY RULES:
"The Heist is ON!" – Wait for breakout confirmation at 1.33800 before striking.
Sell Stop Orders below breakout MA OR Sell Limit Orders (15-30 min timeframe).
Retest Entry? Ideal if price retraces to recent low/high before dropping.
📌 ALERT SETUP: Don’t miss the breakout—set a chart alert!
🛑 STOP LOSS (Risk Management):
Thief SL at 1.34800 (Swing/Day Trade basis – 3H period).
🚨 Pro Tip: "Yo, rebels! You can place SL wherever you want… but if you ignore this level, don’t cry later. Your risk, your rules."
🎯 PROFIT TARGET:
First Take-Profit: 1.32300 (or bail earlier if momentum fades).
Scalpers: Ride the short side only. Use trailing SL to lock profits.
📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (Why This Heist Works)
Before executing, check:
✅ COT Report (Are big players dumping GBP?)
✅ Macro News (UK vs. USD economic strength)
✅ Intermarket Analysis (DXY, Bonds, Equities correlation)
✅ Sentiment & Seasonality (Is the crowd too bullish?)
⚠️ WARNING: NEWS & VOLATILITY ALERTS
Avoid new trades during high-impact news (unless you love gambling).
Use trailing stops to protect profits if the market flips.
💥 BOOST THIS HEIST! 💥
🚀 Like & Share to strengthen our Thief Trading Squad!
💸 More heists = More profits. Stay tuned for the next robbery plan!
🤑 See you on the profitable side, bandits! 🏴☠️
🔴 DISCLAIMER: This is entertainment, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
#Forex #GBPUSD #TradingStrategy #ThiefTrading #BankHeist #SwingTrading #DayTrading
💬 COMMENT BELOW: Are you joining the heist or waiting for a better setup? 🚨👇
US Missiles Flyin'! Buy USD vs EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPY!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 22-28th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
The USD is the world's reserve currency. When there are geo-political hot spots in the world, the USD sees inflows from investors. In light of US strikes against Iranians nuke sites last night, buying the USD versus other currencies is prudent and wise.
The USD should see more gains as long as the current tensions are high. If Iran comes back to the negotiations table, then the environment switches back to a risk on scenario, where the outflows from the USD go back into riskier assets like the stock market.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
USDJPY: Ready for Wave 5?USDJPY is showing a strong bullish wave structure, with a clear path toward higher levels based on Elliott Wave Theory. After a successful breakout from a multi-year consolidation, price action appears to be completing a Wave (4) correction thereby setting the stage for a Wave (5) rally.
Based on the bullish structure and projected continuation:
1st Target = 157.78
2nd Target = 177.41
Final Target = 209.16 Full wave extension, top of macro channel
With support holding above ¥140.00 and a bullish bounce forming, this could mark the Wave C bottom of (4), setting the stage for the next major leg up.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets are dynamic and unpredictable.
EUR/USD - H4 - Triangle Formation (31.05.2025)The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern.
1. Wait for Breakout with Good Volume
2. Conformation in short Timeframe Must
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Fundamental Updates :
Dollar mixed on tariff uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump to battle a U.S. trade court ruling that blocked most of his proposed tariffs.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING
Thank you.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.