USDSGD Time to sell this rally.The USDSGD pair has been rebounding non-stop since the September 27 bottom and yesterday broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 3 months (since July 04). This confirmed that the correction since July is over but with the 1D RSI above 60.00 and heading towards the overbought barrier (70.00), we expect a rejection there.
In fact, there was a similar fractal that was rejected on March 10 2023, on the correction's 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level a little after the 1D RSI turned overbought. This resulted into a test of the 0.618 Fib of the rebound Leg.
As a result, we are expecting a rejection on the 0.382 Fib or when the 1D RSI gets overbought above 70.00 and our Target is the 0.618 Fib at 1.29150.
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DJ FXCM Index
NZDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6080
Stop Loss: 0.6140 (60 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.5980 (100 pips below entry, offering a 1.67:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
The New Zealand dollar is displaying signs of weakness, and with global risk-off sentiment prevailing, NZD/USD may continue to fall towards 0.5980. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.
GBPUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 1.3091
Stop Loss: 1.3170 (80 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 1.2970 (120 pips below entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
GBP/USD faces increasing downward pressure as the U.K. economy remains fragile, while the U.S. dollar benefits from its relative strength. This trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in light of these macroeconomic factors.
EURUSD longAs my anylisis is very top down this time on EURUSD and i am expecting The pair to fly to its global resistance as on Monthly Time frame i have seen observed a Trenline breakout and Restest over it on weekly Time frame i have observed flat resistance rising price pattern also on H4 i am expecting price reversal on H1 i have seen a falling wedge so am buy
Baised on The pair
Market Fundamental Analysis for 10 October 2024 EURUSDAn event to look out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Consumer Price Index
EURUSD:
EUR/USD fluctuated in a narrow range below 1.0950 during the Asian session on Thursday and consolidated recent strong losses to a near two-month low reached the previous day.
The US dollar (USD) is near its highest level since 16 August as traders assessed the possibility of another 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Moreover, current market pricing indicates a more than 20 per cent probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged next month, and these expectations were confirmed by the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday. As a result, US 10-year government bond yields will exceed the 4% threshold, which will support the quid and serve as a headwind for EUR/USD.
On the other hand, the euro currency continues to be pressured by growing confidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut borrowing costs by 25bps at each of its two policy meetings before the end of the year. Moreover, the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East should favour the safe-haven US Dollar and indicate that the path of least resistance for EUR/USD lies to the downside. Traders, however, may refrain from new bearish bets and prefer to wait for the latest US inflation data before positioning themselves for further rate cuts.
The all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released later in the North American session this Thursday, followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. This data will play a key role in shaping expectations about the path of the Fed rate cut, which in turn will stimulate demand for the dollar in the near term and give new directional momentum to EUR/USD.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with sell orders at the price level of 1.0890.
NZDUSD: Broke under both MAs. Strong sell signalNZDUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.216, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 38.839) as it smashed through both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200. The long term structure is a Rectangle (R1 and S1 Zone) and the current pattern that is emerging is almost identical with the previous bearish waves towards the S1 Zone. It is possible to see a medium term reboudn back to the 1D MA50 but on the long term we are bearish (TP = 0.58600).
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GBPUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important support and resistance levels on GBPUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.3235 - 1.3266 area
Resistance 2: 1.3312 - 1.3322 area
Resistance 3: 1.3414 - 1.3434 area
Support 1: 1.3000 - 1.3043 area
Support 2: 1.2860 - 1.2888 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSDHere is our overall on XAUUSD . Potential short opportunity.
As of now, XAUUSD is struggling to break 2624 . If we break above this level we could see higher highs and we will continue to the upside.
However,
If we break below 2604 , we could see a downside move to our PBA (Pullback Area) sitting at around 2590 . Breaks below our PBA could also result in lower prices. Considering the fact we made an ATH it would not be out of the ordinary for gold to do a massive pullback .
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD is struggling to break 2624.
- Break below 2604 would confirm sells.
- A pullback from ATH is not out of the ordinary.
- Break above 2624 could result in higher highs.
- Break below PBA would result in deeper pullbacks.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
GBPUSD Will it hold the 1D MA50??The GBPUSD pair has been trading exactly on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past two days and so far it held. Today though it appears to be making its first legitimate attempt to break it and if the 1D candle closes below it, we will have a confirmed bearish break-out.
This is similar to the August 03 2023 bearish break-out, which was the ultimate medium-term sell confirmation after a long Bullish Megaphone that dictated the trend. As you can see the two fractals are identical, initially declining by around -5% and then rising towards the 2.0 Fibonacci extension through their Megaphones.
The 2023 sell signal reached the 0.786 Fib after the break-out and that will be our Target again (1.2550) if the 1D candle confirms that closing below the 1D MA50.
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[DXY] Towards resistanceMany assets are waiting for clarification on TVC:DXY move. At the moment, it still climbing towards the lower side of triangle as resistance at 103.
If breaks, we still have 220 EMA at 103.40.
I'm still thinking this will go lower & this move is simply a pressure relief...but let see.
EURUSD: Dead cat bounce to 1.10500 expected.EURUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.133, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 30.825) which given the fact that the price is approaching the LL trendline, it allows for some room to recover some losses. We expect this to be a dead cat bounce but a short term buy opportunity nonetheless. Target the 4H MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.10500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold Washout Low/Excess Phase Peak #3 Setup - Get ReadyThis short video highlights why I believe Gold is building a base near $2640 for a big rally move up to $2760++.
Yes, I highlight some concerns in this video.
I expected Gold to move more aggressively to the upside over the last 36 hours, but this is trading. Everything doesn't work out perfectly in all instances.
If you are trading Gold, this video should help you understand what is happening on the price chart and why it is so important for Gold to build a base and move higher from these lows.
If Gold breaks below $2620, all bets are off, and we may see a broader breakdown. But I don't think that is likely to happen with this move.
I still see the $2780 level as the upper target.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
USDJPY Waiting for this perfect sell opportunity.Two weeks ago (September 25, see chart below) we gave a strong multi-month buy signal on the USDJPY pair and it couldn't have had a better timing:
Last week recorded a massive 1W green candle, the strongest one in more than 2 years that almost tested the 1W MA50. Today we will be breaking down this long-term buy opportunity on the lower 1D time-frame.
As you can see, the price is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. This is of very high importance as during the previous Channel Up bottom in early 2023, the two formed a Bearish Cross (February 27 2023) and just a few days later the pair topped and was rejected on the 1D MA200.
The result was a pull-back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term we remain bullish but on the short-term we will be waiting for this rejection opportunity in order to short and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 146.000.
Notice also that the high symmetry on the RSI sequences among the two bottom fractals also indicates that we are just before the 1D MA100/ 200 Bearish Cross took place.
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EURUSD Confirmed sell signal with MA50 (1d) confirmationEURUSD broke below the MA50 (1d) for the first time since August 2nd, which is a technical sell signal.
The MA50 (1d) has been the pivot of the Ascending Triangle and every break below it has delivered more downside.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the next rebound to the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 1.078000 (Support A).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is posting the same pattern of the December top. Technical sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USDollar Is In Higher Degree Recovery ModeDollar Index with ticker DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse, but with current sharp bounce out of an ending diagonal on 4h TF, we believe that correction is now in play. Notice thats a very sharp leg up, so its wave a, still first leg of a minimum three-wave a-b-c recovery that can take index back to 61.8% Fib, near 104 which can be very strong resistance for the next sell-off, especially if we consider that this can be wave 2 rally.
EURUSD formed the first 4H Death Cross in 4 months.The Double Top on EURUSD last time we mentioned it (September 23, see chart below) worked perfectly and followed its technical bearish bias as not only did the price got rejected but also broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the May's Channel Up:
At the same time, the pair just completed its first Death Cross on the 4H time-frame in almost 4 months (since June 14) and every time in the past 2 and more years (except June 14) that it made that formation, it gave a solid medium-term (at least) sell signal.
As a result, there is no reason to diverge from the 1.08350 bearish Target, which as with the February 14 Low, it is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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USD/JPY Breakout and New Support FormationUSD/JPY has recently broken through a key resistance level, which has now turned into support. If we break above the trendline resistance, our first target will be the next resistance level. This could be a good opportunity for a long position if the breakout is confirmed.
POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR XAUUSD THIS WEEK!As we know gold is still in a strong uptrend.
When we look dating from 23/09/24 till 26/09/24 gold as hit several ATHs and retraced back down to its PREV BUY ZONE to continue its uptrend.
With new data being released around the dollar and war conflicts in the Middle East gold has been unsure of its direction causing it to range between the BUY/SELL ZONE.
The strong levels I would take from this are
- 2625
- 2640
- 2670
I think if gold can continue its sudden bearish momentum its had after hitting its ATH then we can see 2625 being retested and if a sudden break of that we may see more down side.
the other scenario is gold bounces off the 2625 for the third time in 3 weeks and continues its run in the bull market.
This is just my analysis and not financial advice.
Good luck trading
Hit the rocket for more analysis’s for the rest of the year.
The direction likely set for usd to head higherHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
USD broke up higher ,potentially already formed a double bounce...has been up the whole of last week...could likely see pullback before heading higher.for now up side bias for USD
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Sell AUD/USD Triangle BreakoutThe AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.6870
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.6835
2nd Support – 0.6804
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.6916. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
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Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.