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DJ FXCM Index

Gold Shakeout - Fed Comments/UD-Dollar - Rally TimeGold saw a huge shakeout this morning, as the Fed commented, and the move in the US dollar put some extreme pressure on metals. The funny thing is this move ended almost as fast as it started - and now metals are rallying again. Why? The Fed is trying to transition into a more global friendly position - allowing foreign nations to become more competitive with the US Dollar. China recently went ALL IN on a resurgence economy - betting the US Fed is going to move towards more Dovish rate cuts. This bet may be the downfall of China if the Fed changes direction near the end of 2025. The US dollar is still the biggest, badest currency on the planet. As Gold rises while the US Dollar rises - you are seeing global traders attempt to hedge global risk factors in precious metals while the US Dollar/Economy continues to be the 900lb Gorilla of the world's economies. Things could get very interesting through the US election. Sit tight - buckle up and prepare for some very big moves in the markets over the next 60-90+ days. Get some.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
USDCNY Brace for a cyclical 1-year sell-off.The USDCNY pair is almost on a 3-month decline after a Lower Highs rejection early in July. Having broken below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) the same month, which was the long-term Support, this Lower Highs is a standard cyclical top formation that has shown up both on the May 2020 and 2017 tops. The similarities are more obvious on the 1W RSI, where the pair makes its cyclical bottom after a Higher Lows trend-line is formed on oversold territory and tops on the Lower Highs trend-line shown. Right now it appears that we are just before it breaks downwards aggressively and attack the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The Sine Waves also give a great perspective of the frequency of those Cycle Bottoms. As a result, we expect the pair to have reached by the end of 2025 the 10-year Higher Lows Zone. Our long-term Target is 6.500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 4, 2024 EURUSDAn event to look out for today: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate EURUSD: EUR/USD remains on the defensive near 1.1030 on the back of a stronger US dollar during the early Asian session on Friday. Cautious market sentiment ahead of key US economic data is putting pressure on the major pair. All eyes will be on the release of US employment data due for release today. The US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Thursday provided some support to the US Dollar (USD). The services PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August, beating the market forecast of 51.7, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week ended 28 September. The figure followed the previous week's data of 219,000 (revised from 218,000) and was worse than market expectations of 220,000. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that policymakers are likely to stick to their policy of cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) going forward. Markets have priced the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at nearly 68.9%, while the probability of a 50 bps rate cut is 31.1%, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday may provide some hints on how the US interest rate will move. The US economy is estimated to have added 140,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. If the employment report is weaker than expected, it could prompt the central bank to consider deeper rate cuts, which would put pressure on the US dollar. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers continue to hint that another rate cut could be in the near future. This, in turn, could weaken the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar. Kyle Chapman, currency analyst at Ballinger Group, said, ‘Policy is too tight given the challenging macroeconomic environment and a move to successive rate cuts seems self-evident now that disinflation is in its late stages.’ Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Sell orders from the current price level
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD reached the 1day MA50. Double netry buy opportunity.GBPUSD is about to test the 1day MA50, which is intact since August 13th. The pattern is a Channel Up and even though its bottom is a little lower, the 1day MA50 should technically be a first buy entry on this pattern. If the price drops more, you can use the bottom of the Channel for a 2nd entry. A rebound of the 1day RSI on its Support Zone, confirms the buy signal. Target on both occassions 1.3500. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Long
by TheCryptagon
USDINR The 2-year Rising Wedge is holding.The USDINR pair continues to respect the Rising Wedge that we mentioned more than 2 months ago (July 24, see chart below), giving us both excellent buy and sell signals: This 2-year Rising Wedge pattern is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line) once more so we're preparing for a sell signal again. The confirmation to sell within this pattern is given when the 1W RSI breaks above its MA line (yellow trend-line). Our Target is 83.7500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
US Dollar Index Climbs to 101.00 as Powell Signals Rate CutsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen close to the 101.00 level following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that future rate cuts would be implemented gradually. This rise comes as no surprise, as the DXY has rebounded from a key demand area that was previously identified. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bearish on the US Dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—have shifted toward long positions, further supporting the currency's strength. This bullish sentiment in the US Dollar is reinforced by the fundamental backdrop. Today, the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings reports could further fuel the DXY’s upward momentum. A positive outcome from these key economic indicators would indicate continued resilience in the US economy, bolstering expectations for the Fed to maintain its gradual approach to rate adjustments, which in turn supports the USD. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector, and a strong reading would reflect ongoing economic expansion, likely pushing the DXY higher. Similarly, the JOLTS Job Openings data provides insights into labor market strength, and a robust figure would further cement the case for a stronger US Dollar. Technically, the DXY’s recovery from the demand area, combined with the shift in institutional positioning, points to a sustained bullish outlook for the US Dollar. With smart money moving to the long side and retailers still bearish, the DXY could continue its climb, especially if today's economic data aligns with market expectations. In conclusion, the US Dollar Index is experiencing a bullish run following Powell’s comments on gradual rate cuts, and the momentum is likely to be reinforced by positive ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data. As retail traders remain bearish and institutional investors shift toward the long side, the DXY could see further gains in the near term, particularly if economic data supports the Fed’s cautious but optimistic outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
7
DXY Sell this Oct-Nov dead-cat-bounce and target 97.000.Last time we looked into a such a long-term (multi-year) time-frame on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was 10 months ago (December 15 2023, see chart below) where we gave the most optimal buy entry at the time: We now take it to the 1M time-frame where the long-term trend gets more clear and the pattern as you can see is a Channel Up since the March 2008 bottom (U.S. Housing Crisis). The most recent Higher High was back in September 2022 and since then the index has been on a decline in an attempt to form the bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. As you can see, we are in the later stages of this (multi-year) Bearish Leg but last month (September) it hit its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since January 2022 and held it. This is expected to delay the Lower Low for a while but most likely won't invalidate it as if it closes a 1M candle below it, we expect to test the bottom by Q2 2025. Both the Bearish and Bullish Phases seem to be consistent within this 16-year Channel Up, having a fair degree of symmetry. The Bearish Phases have previously come in the form of successive Channel Down patterns (dashed), so if this analogy continues to hold this time also, we should be half-way through the second currently. All those Channel Down patterns dropped to at least the 1.236 Fibonacci extension from the first pull-back they had. This consistency is remarkable. Such pattern suggests that after the current rebound is completed (technically it shouldn't exceed the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the price could decline to 96.000. Our Target is a bit higher at 97.000, which would make an ideal Higher Low on this 16-year old Channel Up. After that, the confirmation to buy (which naturally will tell us that the bottom is already in) would be a 1M MACD Bullish Cross below the 0.0 mark. As you see, this took place 5 times these 16 years, all of which have been excellent buy entries with the lowest risk possible. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
3
USDHUF Major double bullish break-out took place yesterdayThe USDHUF pair achieved a huge double bullish break-out yesterday as not only did it break above Resistance 1 (360.650) but also above (and closed) the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 4-month Descending Triangle pattern. At the same time it closed above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a major buy signal for the long-term, but even if we keep a short-term perspective, we can now target 367.500 (just below Resistance 2) with a lower risk factor than before. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
GBPUSD: Cycle peaked. Expect brutal bearish reversal.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.143, MACD = 0.08, ADX = 33.338) but still bullish on 1W (RSI = 64.701). After rising nonstop since April and basically not having a long term correction since October 2023, we expect this bullish cycle of GBPUSD to be coming to an end. The Sine Waves structure is further proof of that, as it is past its top where in June 2021 and April 2018 it peaked. We turn long term bearish on this pair, aiming for the S1 level (TP = 1.2100). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
USDJPY: Important Support & Resistance Levels 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Here is my latest structure analysis and important support and resistance levels to pay close attention to on USDJPY. Resistance 1: 146.50 - 147.35 area Resistance 2: 149.30 - 149.40 area Support 1: 141.64 - 142.20 area Support 2: 139.60 - 140.60 area From a current perspective, probabilities are high that the pair will continue growing, at least to Resistance 1. After its test, consider that for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Sell GBP/USD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.3382 Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3312 2nd Support – 1.3265 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3440. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
41
Sell USD/JPY Channel BreakoutThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 143.77, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 142.13 2nd Support – 141.26 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 144.60. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
11
EURUSD: Bearish reversal if the 1D MA50 breaks.EURUSD is on the lower levels of neutrality on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 46.772, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 17.817) as it reversed aggressively on the 1.12100 R1 level, forming what is so far a DT (double top) on a 1month 1D RSI bearish divergence. The same divergence was formed on the December 28th 2024 HH and it caused a decline to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The trigger point to sell is always the 1D MA50. Consequently, we will turn bearish if it is crossed, aiming at the 0.618 Fib (TP = 1.08350). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
1
AUDUSD: Top of Megaphone hit. Reversal expected.AUDUSD is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.054, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 53.204) as the price reached the HH trendline at the top of the Megaphone pattern. The 1D MACD printed a sequence almost identical to the December 28th 2023 top, which soon after declined to the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Consequently, we take this as a strong sell signal, aiming at the 0.5 Fib (TP = 0.66500). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1