Meta (Facebook) Price AnalysisMeta’s price is approaching a key daily resistance level. If we get a breakout above this resistance, it could signal the start of a strong upward move, with potential to target the next r level.
Key points to watch:
Breakout above the daily resistance: This could lead to a continuation of the uptrend.
If the breakout happens, the price may target the next level on the chart.
It’s crucial to watch the price action closely to confirm the breakout!
DJ FXCM Index
It's DO or DIE tomorrow with the US Dollar and the FOMCI discuss the US Dollar index ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. How the Fed frames the next few months will determine of the US Dollar is in a range, or is about to fall aggressively. I map out the key levels ahead of the FOMC in the US Dollar index for tomorrow.
CHFEUR in doldrums but entry for bullish run comingCHFEUR will get its push from the expected fall in the AMEX:USD this week. The EUR holders will seek some safety here and this will tie in with an established pattern observed since May where the CHF against the EUR has been following a clear ascending channel as in the 2hr chart. Expectations are a confirmed bullish breakout at about 1.0687 as a start of a more significant rise to the high of 1.0857. From here will be the more significant resistance and retracement.
CHFEUR in doldrums but entry for bullish run comingCHFEUR will get its push from the expected fall in the AMEX:USD this week. The EUR holders will seek some safety here and this will tie in with an established pattern observed since May where the CHF against the EUR has been following a clear ascending channel as in the 2hr chart. Expectations are a confirmed bullish breakout at about 1.0687 as a start of a more significant rise to the high of 1.0857. From here will be the more significant resistance and retracement.
USDCHF Great long-term bottom buy opportunity.The USDCHF pair is trading considerably below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 04 2024, as it was on a major 5-month Bearish Leg following the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) peak and rejection on May 01.
The 1D MACD however has formed its 2nd straight Bullish Cross and last time that took place was on January 04 2024, right after the pair's bottom from the 2023 Bearish Leg.
As a result, we treat the current levels as the most optimal long-term buy opportunity for the year, targeting again a potential 1W MA200 contact at 0.90500.
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EURUSD Channel Down hitting its top. Sell opportunity.The EURUSD pair rebounded on Friday on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today the price is testing the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 3-week Channel Down pattern. This presents an strong sell opportunity on an excellent Risk/Reward ratio and the upside is limited to the top but the downside having much room to drop to the bottom of the Channel.
The previous Bearish Legs declined by -1.41% and -1.56% respectively. As long as the price is closing below the top of the Channel Down, our target will be the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1.09900 (-1.26% from the top, negative progression relative to the previous Bearish Legs).
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USD/JPY Bearish Setup: Anticipating Rejection at Resistance Hello traders! Today, I’m taking a closer look at the USD/JPY pair on the 1-hour time frame, where I’m anticipating a potential bearish move.
Here’s my plan:
Resistance Level: a key zone where it has previously reversed. If the price tests this level again, I’ll be watching for a potential rejection.
Reversal Signals: I’ll be paying close attention to bearish candlestick patterns, such as shooting stars or bearish engulfing patterns, to confirm that the resistance is holding and selling pressure is building.
Momentum Check: I’ll also monitor the overall market momentum. If the upward movement starts losing steam near the resistance, this could be an early sign of a potential reversal.
Risk Management Strategy: To manage my risk, I’ll place a stop loss slightly above the resistance level, protecting against a potential breakout.
Bitcoin Zip LineI’ve been tracking the course of bitcoin for the last 5 years. I think we are in for some major volatility soon!
Scenario 1:
The bitcoin price will rally as elections are heating up, and more people are sponsoring bitcoin and other meme coins in this period, in addition the tension in the Middle East . Consequently, the US market seems to have some underlying affect on the price of bitcoin. It is connected to the dollar. De-dollarization is a reality. But, you can’t back out on currency yet, too many people would be affected. People presently and people how will. So I expect the fed to cut rates hard, and quickly, without a doubt saving the economic bubble waiting to pop soon. Leading to a red swan event. No I did not say black. Red swan would be a global market chain reaction.
Bitcoin would break upward toward the resistance area $68,387- 69,000which has been building since November 10th, 2020.
If that occurs bitcoin could fall and complete a long striking falling wedge buying opportunity with a target of $42,000 and a liquidity pool around $37,600. Bitcoin could continue with selling pressure, or the big institutions will buy back bitcoin leading to an all time high price in a parabolic move toward $79,000, $100k, 150k, and $200k. Why so high? In short summary banks, coin IPO’s, Mining Harvests, Ripple, and AI
This would be the greatest buy opportunity for either any retail trader or institutional investors. Maybe even private owned firms, government agencies, and owners of any equity.
Scenario 2: A test of the $68’387-$69,000 area and a breakout to $73,000 could lead the price to $79,000. If this price is reached, bitcoin will either decide to test shaky hands and liquidate. As a matter of fact, new hands coming in, can squeeze toward $90,000 above 100k before deciding a true bullish path. Same rules apply on the buy opportunity. This would be parabolic as well which would make $42,000 the main support zone in a long term situation drawback.
This is just a prediction, good luck ;)
DXY UPDATED w/ Eurozone Interest Rate & U.S. Jobless Claims originally posted here . 102.500 DXY in the coming weeks?
The Eurozone has opted to keep interest rates stable at 3.65%, signaling a wait-and-see approach to current economic conditions.
Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims have come in 3,000 lower than expected, reflecting a stronger U.S. labor market.
This divergence in data is likely to put pressure on EUR/USD, with the U.S. dollar gaining strength from robust employment figures while the Euro remains steady amid unchanged monetary policy. I’ll be watching for potential bullish DXY into the next trading sessions.
DXY Bullish Bias: Price Action & Data AlignmentWhile U.S. economic data hasn't been stellar, it's still holding up well enough to support the dollar. Intra-week price action (8/26/24 - 9-6-24) reflects this, with strong upward movement indicating a continuation of the bullish trend.
Keep an eye on key support levels and potential pullbacks, as this bias could persist heading into the coming weeks.
Blue ATR is monthly
Purple ATR IS weekly
Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY.H4 13.09.24Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY
The dollar index has completed its upward correction and now we are waiting for a downside downdraft on the Fed on the 18th of September. In fact, the currency futures expiration has now passed and the gap that you see in the quotes is caused by a large divergence of forward point, that is a purely technical picture. Some suppliers may have different quotes by the numbers.
From current levels +- I expect a correction up again and a continuation of the fall after Powell's speech on Wednesday 18 September. I do not set targets at the low yet, I will be looking at it in the process
Fed’s Rate Decision to Set the Tone for Stocks, Gold and CryptoOfficials at the central bank are staying tight-lipped over the magnitude of the interest rate cut. What we know so far: there will be one. What we don’t know: is it going to be 25bps or 50bps?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell (or JPow if you’re a cool kid) is most likely having a hard time sleeping these days. Lurking in the near distance, September 18 to be precise, is a decision he should make that has the power to slosh trillions of dollars across global markets.
Stock valuations, crypto prices and the glow of gold all hinge on a single figure — the US interest rate ( USINTR ). Major central banks are on the move to unwind their restrictive monetary policies, especially when it comes to global interest rates . Investors have been trying to run ahead of the interest rate decision and position their portfolios to accommodate both a small casual trim to borrowing costs but also a bigger, juicier slash.
Clashing opinions over the size of the interest rate reduction have been swaying the financial markets in recent weeks. Fed officials haven’t sent out any comms regarding that question so markets do what they do best — speculate.
According to the FedWatch tool by CME Group, at the end of this week, investors were nearly even in their expectations for the upcoming interest rate cut with 55% calling for a 25bps (basis points) cut and 45% rooting for the fuller treatment of 50bps.
In any case, this would be the Federal Reserve’s first cut to borrowing costs in more than four years. The benchmark rate in the US is currently sitting at a 23-year high of 5.5% — a level that has stayed flat since July.
After a series of reports pointing to a wobbling economy — and on the back of mostly receding inflation — the central banking clique issued its uplifting guidance at their previous meeting, saying rates are about to go down when they meet again. But what they didn’t say — because they’re data dependent — is how much.
A 25bps cut to interest rates would most likely be already priced in across the spectrum. Stocks, the US dollar, gold and even cryptocurrency are now acting as if this level of rate cut is factored in. Moreover, some investors might even be disappointed to see a rate cut of that casual magnitude. Buy the rumor, sell the news, maybe?
A 50bps cut to interest rates could bring some needed fuel for the next leg up in stocks, gold and crypto. And, on the flip side, knock the dollar’s valuation.
Lower interest rates make money more affordable, enticing investors, businesses and consumers to get more cash out of the bank and spend more freely on big-ticket purchases. Obviously, investors shove the cash into various markets. Businesses expand operations and build new products. And consumers, well, they buy the new iPhone 16 and jam what's left in meme stocks ?
Perhaps even more importantly, lower interest rates help steer the economy, keeping it on an upward trajectory. Liquidity improves, because there’s more money flowing in the system, and valuations of public and private assets usually increase.
Take gold ( XAU/USD ), for example. Gold hit an all-time high Friday morning, pumping above $2,570 per ounce . Driving the gains was the relationship between gold and the prospects of lower rates, which make bullion more appealing because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. At the same time, the US dollar loses some of its allure because the reduction in rates triggers a lower yield on dollar deposits.
Bitcoin ( BTC/USD ) is another interest -ing candidate to join the rate interplay. The OG token has been increasingly correlated to macroeconomic factors and the rate decision is already seen impacting its price in a positive way.
Stocks have been in choppy trading mode over the past couple of months largely due to the looming uncertainty about the looming rate-setting meeting.
So what do you think it’s going to be — 25bps or 50bps? And how would it affect financial markets? Shoot your thoughts below!
US DOLLAR - Boxed RangeUS DOLLAR is trading SUPPORT and RESISTANCE zones within a boxed RANGE.
It is respecting a range of 100.53 - 101.93, with respective bounces on either end, keeping it within its BOXED RANGE.
When I'm speaking about a BOXED RANGE, what I mean is that the RANGE ISN'T TIGHT like a normal range, where its looking for volume before a big move, these types of ranges have volume and are easier to read as they respect KEY ZONES, for example right now they are respecting 100.53 - 101.93.
We should wait for the US DOLLAR to enter either SUPPORT or RESISTANCE to enter a trade, we can wait for a rejection + bounce or wait for a breakout.
If the US DOLLAR breaks to the downside (BEARISH) I would expect for the overall US markets to continue it's BULLISH movements, as usually the US MARKET IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE US DOLLAR INDEX...
Conversely if it shows BULLISH signs and begins to move towards the SUPPORT ZONE, I will be looking for the US MARKET to move BEARISH.
Gold Price Analysis: Watching Resistance and Support ZonesGold is currently trading between a strong resistance zone, where we’ve seen multiple rejections, and a key support level. The price has been bouncing between these areas. If we see the price drop back to the smaller support, there’s potential for a bounce. It will be crucial to observe how buyers respond at this level to determine the next move. If buyers show strength, a rebound could occur; otherwise, we might see further declines. Monitoring price action at these critical levels will be key for future trades.
NVIDIA BUY CONFIRMED!As expected in previous ideas, NVDA has decided to bottom out around $100-$111.
1. You can expect price to navigate towards the upper $120’s area
2. Upon a break through $126 there should be a stock buyback pump to $138+
3. Whenever the buyback cools down, there should be an immediate sharp correction to the lower $100 range and below. Waiting for possible Q2 earnings in 2025, or another chip update.
This is all prediction good luck ;)
EURUSD: Channel Down expected to bottom & give a buy opportunityEURUSD is bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 33.975, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 38.295) as the 2 week Channel Down is on a bearish wave under the 4H MA50 and just over the 4H MA200. Technically this is already LL region but the bottom might take a while to form, as August 29th - Sep 3rd did, grinding inside a Rectangle. Testing the 1D MA50 inside a new Rectangle potentially, could make an ideal technical bottom. We will target the 0.618 Fibonacci level following that (TP = 1.10850), same as the September 6th LH.
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EUR/USD Trade Setup – 4-Hour TimeframeOn the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD has formed an ascending channel followed by a strong breakout to the downside, creating a supply level around the 1.11300 area, where the price has tapped in and is currently selling off from.
To get a sell entry, we need to wait for a market structure break and retest. Currently, the price is at a minor support level. We need to see a breakout that creates a Lower Low; then, we will be looking to sell from the retest level, forming a Lower High.
DXY has formed a Double Bottom at a daily demand level
Signaling bullish momentum.
Don't Trade all the time
Trade only confirm trade setups.
USD/CAD Rebounds from Key Demand Zone as Retail Traders BearishAs predicted last week, the USD/CAD pair has rebounded from a key demand area, in line with expectations. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a bearish stance from retail traders, who are positioned at their most bearish levels since 2009. This sentiment contrasts with the recent price action, which suggests a potential recovery for the USD.
Today’s release of critical economic indicators, including the USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, could provide further momentum to the USD. If these reports come in positive, they may serve as a catalyst for the USD to regain even more value against the CAD.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is positioned in a strong demand zone, which has already facilitated a rebound. With retail traders remaining firmly bearish, the potential for a bullish move increases, especially if the upcoming data aligns favorably for the USD.
While the market waits for these key economic releases, traders are likely to keep a close eye on the indicators to assess the USD’s next move. A positive outcome could signal a further rally, reinforcing the recovery already underway. However, it's essential to stay patient and see how the data unfolds. The market reaction to today’s news will provide clearer direction for USD/CAD’s future trajectory.
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