EURUSD UNTIL FOMC:4H Analysis OANDA:EURUSD
EURUSD is in consolidation phase & has been moving in the range highlighted in the chart. Now, until FOMC we can only trade on highs and lows of the ongoing chart pattern
BUY LEVEL RECOMMENDATION: 1.04330 & 1.04272
SELL LEVEL RECOMMENDATION: 1.06101
For SL, we should use very small and according to our risk: reward plan.
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DJ FXCM Index
XAU/USD (Gold) Wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2678
2nd Support – 2692
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USD/JPY carry trade explainedCurrently, the USD/JPY pair is trading around 154.26, influenced by upcoming policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The US Fed's anticipated 25bps rate cut could potentially narrow the interest rate gap, affecting the carry trade's immediate appeal. However, the strong performance of the US economy, with robust job growth and rising inflation, might sustain the dollar's strength, keeping the carry trade attractive. Meanwhile, the BoJ's steady interest rate at 0.25% and potential for future hikes offer a contrasting backdrop, maintaining the yen's role as a low-interest currency. Global economic uncertainties and political changes in both the US and Japan could impact these dynamics, so traders should monitor central bank signals and economic data closely to navigate potential shifts in the carry trade's profitability.
Dollar Index (DXY): One More Bullish Movement
Yesterday, I predicted a nice pullback on Dollar Index.
It looks like today, we have one more.
The price testing a key intraday/daily horizontal support
and formed a double bottom on that.
Bullish violation of its neckline may push the market higher.
Goal - 107.1
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Dollar Index (DXY): Clear Strength?!
Looks like Dollar Index is ready for more growth.
I see 2 strong bullish confirmations after a retest of a recently broken horizontal resistance:
the price violated a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle and a neckline of a horizontal range.
A strong bullish imbalance indicates a high momentum.
We can anticipate more growth.
Goal - 107.13
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EURUSD Bottom formation in progress. Strong Buy.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a nearly 2-year Channel Down. Being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since October 02 2024, this is technically still the pattern's Bearish Leg.
However, having bottomed on November 22 and transitioned into a (dotted) Channel Up, this is the technical bottom formation of the long-term Channel Down and the rise following a 1D MACD Bullish Cross from such a low level (the lowest in 2 years), confirms that.
The similarities with both previous bottom formations (September - October 2023 and February - March 2023) are obvious, all of them triple bottomed before rebounding above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, buying now and targeting 1.08765 (Fib 0.618) is an excellent long-term trade in terms of R/R.
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xauusd on bearish range#XAUUSD on double retracment, price based on H4 past candle have corrected on same direction which turns out bearish, firstly we expect 2644 then breakout below the D1 low will drop below. Sell stop at 2657, take profit 2644-2630, stop loss 2665. Gold bullish is not strong for today.
BTCUSD Wyckoff Accumulation Phase completedLets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system.
The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action.
Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the Bitcoin 🚀 camp so I am also talking up my own book.
However, if we look to Wyckoff and transpose his teachings on the stages of the accumulation phase, we get quite a convincing outlook to the upside.
It could all be down to the fact that we see what we want to see, or it could be a run on the banks to the crypto-sphere.
US INDEX BULLISH PROJECTION The US INDEX has closed last weeks weekly candle very bullish after retesting the weekly Trendline break and rebounding from it. With that in mind I’m seeing this weeks weekly candle as a possible bullish candle for end of week, for that scenario to play out we would have to hold 1-4 hr support @ 106.200-106.400. Target for the week 107.300-107.500.. let’s get through this week and see if the bulls keep control going into 2025.
Xau/usd | Analysis Daily to H4 TimeframeXau/usd | Analysis Daily to H4 Timeframe
- This Analysis is based on Educational Purposes
- We Are observing the market and we have seen that market have a volume as bearish and still market is in sell trend
what we are expecting ?
we are expected 2665.00 is our observation area because market have to touched this point firstly after that it will create a lowest lowest and complete its right leg which are clearly define in video
so if you need any assistance you can search us on social media platforms
DXY Best level for a long-term short.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a 1.5 year Channel Up pattern (since July 14 2023) and just 2 weeks ago it formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame. Having hit the pattern's top a week earlier, the current rebound seems to technically be part of the Lower Highs/ Lower Lows top formation, similar to October 03 - November 01 2023 peak.
That was 1 year again, a peak formation that was also formed after a 1D Golden Cross. This indicates that the long-term pattern (Channel Up) is highly symmetrical and as the 1W RSI is also declining after a rejection on the 70.00 overbought barrier, we consider the current level the best possible short entry.
The Bearish Leg that followed the 2023 High extended as low as the 0.786 Fibonacci level. As a result, we expect to see at least 102.000 (just above the 0.786 Fib) before any signs of a rebound.
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Sell EUR/USD Channel BrekoutThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0482
2nd Support – 1.0445
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Is USD Setting Up for a Retrace?👀 👉 The DXY (USD) has shown strong momentum, rebounding sharply from a key support level and pushing into this 4H resistance zone. In my view, the price seems overextended, and I’m anticipating a retracement within the current price swing range back to equilibrium. 📢 *Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice.
USD/CHF price action: bullish momentum after SNB decisionThe Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.5%, the largest reduction since January 2015, has sent the Swiss franc to its lowest value against the US dollar since November 2022. These aggressive cuts aim to bolster Switzerland's economy amidst rising unemployment and global uncertainties by making borrowing more affordable. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair has surged above 0.89019, driven by the franc's depreciation and the broader positive sentiment towards the US dollar, which remains strong despite a slight dip. The Federal Reserve's cautious optimism concerning US inflation and a robust labor market suggests a gradual pace of future rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength relative to the franc. In the short term, if the SNB maintains its accommodative strategy while the Fed takes a measured approach, the USD/CHF's bullish momentum could persist. Traders should stay attuned to upcoming economic data and central bank communications, which will provide crucial insights into monetary policy shifts affecting the USD/CHF exchange rate.
USDCAD: Excellent short term buy opportunity.USDCAD is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.681, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 22.105) as it trades inside a Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50. The 4H MACD is forming a Bullish Cross and in the past 2 months this has been a strong bullish signal. In line with the previous bullish waves, we are aiming for a +2.60% rise from the bottom (TP = 1.42850).
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USDJPY 1st 1D Golden Cross since June 2023! Bullish!The USDJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 21 2022 High. Today it formed its 1st Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame in 1.5 year (since June 202 2023) and technically it is a very bullish development.
It is not just the standard bullish dynamics of this formation but also that last time we had a Golden Cross, the price bottomed upon the completion of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, which we also got today and rallied to hit the Resistance 1 level.
As a result, this is a strong buy signal and our Target is just below Resistance 1 at 160.000.
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY weekly time frame analysisAs of the weekly time TVC:DXY frame, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 106.59, which places it in an important Fibonacci retracement zone. Here’s an analysis of its current position:
Current Position on the Weekly Chart (DXY at 106.59):
1. Fibonacci Levels:
50% Fibonacci Retracement: The current level at 106.59 is near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend from 114.00 (2022 high) to 100.00 (2023 low). This retracement level is crucial as it often serves as a turning point. The 50% level is typically seen as a major resistance or support level.
61.8% Fibonacci Retracement: The next key level above 106.59 is 107.50, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If DXY breaks through 107.50, it could signal a continuation toward the next key resistance near 108.50.
2. Support Levels:
If DXY fails to hold 106.00–106.50, the next potential support levels would be at 104.50, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the broader move.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: If DXY stays above 106.50 and moves toward 107.50 or breaks it, this would suggest a continuation of the upward trend, potentially targeting 108.50 or higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 106.00 could signal weakness, with the next significant support at 104.50.
The DXY’s behavior around these Fibonacci levels will likely be key in determining the next short- to medium-term direction for the dollar. Watching the upcoming U.S. economic data releases will be essential for confirming these technical signals.
Gold Breaches Trendline: Bullish Continuation Expected Gold Breaches Trendline: Bullish Continuation Expected
Gold's breach of the trendline indicates potential for higher prices. Here's an actionable breakdown:
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Current Trend Overview
Breakout Confirmed:
The 4-hour candle closing above the trendline confirms a bullish breakout.
This signals buyers are in control, and higher levels are now anticipated.
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Targets to Watch
1. First Target: 2760
Why? Likely a nearby resistance or minor psychological level.
May face slight consolidation or profit-taking here.
2. Second Target: 2790
Why? Represents a stronger resistance or Fibonacci extension area.
Likely to test this level if bullish momentum sustains.
3. Extended Targets (Optional):
Beyond 2790, watch 2810 and 2850 as potential zones, depending on strength.
Stop-Loss Placement
1. Below Trendline:
Conservative traders should place stops just below the broken trendline.
2. Swing Low:
Alternatively, set it below the most recent swing low to allow for volatility.
3. ATR-Based Stop:
Use the Average True Range (ATR) for dynamic stop placement, e.g., 1.5x ATR below the breakout level.
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Risk-Reward Example
Entry: Around breakout level (post-close above trendline).
Stop-Loss: 20-30 points below breakout point or recent swing low.
Targets:
TP1: 2760
TP2: 2790
Risk-Reward Ratio: Maintain at least 1:2 or 1:3. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights.
Technical Setup
Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade.
Trade Plan
Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level).
Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection).
Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit).
Risk/Reward Insights
This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips.
Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed.
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AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights.
Technical Setup
Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade.
Trade Plan
Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level).
Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection).
Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit).
Risk/Reward Insights
This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips.
Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed.
Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
XAUUSD - Gold Monthly TargetOverview:
Gold and silver have outperformed most other "safe haven" assets. These precious metals are ending the year with remarkable gains. Investors have flocked to them as hedges against inflation and market volatility, helping to drive their values upward.
Price:
The Bull trend started back in March! (2040). Nine months of continued bullish price actions and blue candles and the price has topped all the way to 2800. Last month (November) we saw gold drop to 2500 finding support.
Today gold is back on track creating higher highs in the intraday timeframes.
Monthly:
The Cup and handle pattern. On the monthly gold is currently in the cup and handle bull run. Pay attention to the Fibb retracement levels. Gold has already touched the 50% and found support at the .618. With the current volume and bullish momentum, gold could easily find the strength to break higher and reach the target (3500) in the next 3-4 months
Monthly Pattern Target:
3560
Key Levels:
Resistance:
2750
3150
Support:
2500
2600
FORECAST UPDATES: Post CPI Results. Did We Get The Bias Right?Wednesday Dec. 11, 2024.
This is the Mid-Week Progress Report. Checking the accuracy of the Weekly Forecast and the Updates video posted yesterday.
Enjoy!
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Disclaimer:
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