DXY 4H Breakout? Bulls Eye Momentum Shift!Hey There;
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have reached a critical turning point from a technical analysis perspective. According to Elliott Wave Theory, following a five-wave downtrend, the AB corrective wave has been completed, and a bullish movement towards the C wave is emerging. This scenario could signal a transition from a bearish market to a bullish one.
Technical Outlook:
- A move towards 104.460 on the DXY may indicate that the market is entering a strong recovery phase.
- The completion of the AB corrective wave suggests that buyers are stepping in, driving upward momentum in price action.
- The C wave typically retraces a portion of the prior decline, creating potential for a higher price level.
Macroeconomic Factors:
- U.S. monetary policy and inflation data remain key determinants of the dollar index’s trajectory.
- Increased global risk appetite may bolster the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
- U.S. Treasury yields could provide additional support for DXY’s upward movement.
If DXY successfully reaches 104.460, this could confirm a shift into a bullish trend. However, the strength and sustainability of the C wave will depend on supportive volume and momentum indicators. The interplay between technical and fundamental factors could drive a solid recovery in the dollar index.
Should this scenario unfold, it may mark the beginning of a renewed period of dollar strength against global currencies. However, market dynamics and macroeconomic developments must be monitored closely to validate this outlook.
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DJ FXCM Index
EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports and resistances for EURUSD
for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EUR/USD - H4 - Triangle Formation (31.05.2025)The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern.
1. Wait for Breakout with Good Volume
2. Conformation in short Timeframe Must
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Fundamental Updates :
Dollar mixed on tariff uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump to battle a U.S. trade court ruling that blocked most of his proposed tariffs.
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EURUSD Bull Flag and 1week Golden Cross pushing it higher.EURUSD is on a Bull Flag pattern and just completed a 1week Golden Cross.
The structure is identical to the last 1week Golden Cross on January 11th 2021, which was also formed at the end of a Bull Flag pattern.
That formation pushed the pair higher to complete a 2.0 Fibonacci extension Top.
Buy and target 1.1800.
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Falling towards pullback support?US Dollar index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 100.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD: Bullish Megaphone unfolds its new bullish wave.EURUSD just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.015, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 31.789) as it maintains a sustainable short term uptrend through a Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D MA50 has assumed the role of the medium term Support and the 3rd bullish wave is already under way. We expect it to repeat at least the previous +2.59% wave, having a TP = 1.14950.
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US Federal Court Rules Trump Tariffs UnconstitutionalUS Federal Court Rules Trump Tariffs Unconstitutional
According to media reports, the US Court of International Trade has:
- declared the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal;
- ruled that the President exceeded his authority;
- blocked the tariffs, emphasising that under the US Constitution, only Congress has the power to impose tariffs.
The decision was made unanimously by a panel of three judges. Financial markets reacted with:
- a rise in US stock indices;
- strengthening of the US dollar — most notably seen today on the USD/CHF chart, as demand for so-called safe-haven assets declined in light of the tariff reversal.
Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart
The bullish momentum has broken upward through:
- a local downward trendline (shown in red);
- resistance at the 0.8300 level, near the May 22 high.
Additionally:
- the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart has moved upwards to the overbought territory;
- the area highlighted with a purple rectangle resembles a bullish Fair Value Gap.
Could this upward momentum lead to a sustained uptrend? There is reason for doubt.
Consider the steep decline in USD/CHF in early April (driven mainly by the introduction of Trump's tariffs) and the relatively small size of today's bullish candle compared to that prior drop.
Price action seems to suggest that market participants are skeptical about any lasting change in the situation. The Trump administration has already filed an appeal, and it’s possible the White House could succeed in defending its position.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBP/USD Breakout (28.05.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3424
2nd Support – 1.3380
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USD vying for Monthly Doji after April Support BounceMonthly charts are often underapprecaited by many retail traders. Sure, they're not very actionable as there's only 12 per year but they can do a great job of highlighting trends and broader market themes and, of interest for this scenario, possible turns.
As a case in point, back in January the US Dollar had a full head of steam, and there was nary a bear in sight. But that month showed as a doji in the USD and in February, the tariff theme started to take over. It was a mild pullback that month but collectively, after two months of bulls stalling, many were ready to pull the plug and that's what showed in March and continued through April as the January doji led into a stern sell-off and fresh multi-year lows.
In April, the USD was hit hard by a combination of tariff drama and trend continuation and a major spot of support eventually came into play around Easter Monday, taken from a trendline projection as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2022 major move.
The bounce wasn't automatic, as there was a slow grind of higher-highs and higher-lows that got another boost around the FOMC rate decision earlier in May. That rally ran all the way until a major spot of resistance came into play at 102, at which sellers reacted.
But at this point they've been stalled at another major spot on the chart of 98.98, which is helping to set a higher-low. And from the monthly chart, the USD is currently showing a doji on the monthly bar for May, which sets the table for a possible turn as we trade into the summer months.
Key for this coming to fruition will be continued recovery in USD/JPY, which has had a major impact in the USD of late. And if we do see that theme of USD-strength continue, I still favor EUR/USD as a major pair of interest for that theme. - js
USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus
📌 MARKET OVERVIEW
USDCHF is currently consolidating within a tight range after a technical rebound from the 0.8226 support zone. The price is testing a confluence area at the descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the H2 chart, indicating indecision between bulls and bears as we head into the high-impact FOMC event.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H2 CHART
Overall Trend: Sideways corrective move within a broader downtrend channel. Price is approaching critical resistance at the EMA200 and the channel’s upper boundary.
EMAs in focus: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red).
Fibonacci Retracement: Price is hovering around the 0.5 fib zone (0.8298), a neutral level for potential reaction.
🎯 Key Levels & Trade Scenarios:
Major Resistance Zone: 0.8330 – 0.8368 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and previous structural high.
Key Support Zone: 0.8226 → strong demand area. A break below this could expose deeper downside or set up a false break trap.
📌 Most Likely Path:
Price could dip back to 0.8226 before launching a bullish recovery targeting 0.8330 – 0.8368.
A clean breakout above 0.8368 with momentum and volume could invalidate the bearish bias and shift the trend mid-term.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
FOMC IN FOCUS: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. However, market attention will be on Powell’s tone. A hawkish stance could fuel further USD strength, propelling USDCHF toward resistance zones.
SNB (Swiss National Bank) maintains a neutral tone with slight disinflationary concerns, offering limited support for the CHF and strengthening the USDCHF upside case.
US Treasury Yields are showing signs of recovery, adding bullish pressure to USD pairs.
📌 TRADING STRATEGY:
Watch for bullish reaction at 0.8226 – potential long setup if RSI divergence appears.
Short-term targets: 0.8330 → 0.8368.
Breakout Strategy: If price clears 0.8368 with conviction, shift bias to bullish continuation and monitor for FVG or trendline breakout alignment.
📣 Stay sharp for increased volatility around FOMC. Position sizing and discipline are key in macro-heavy weeks like this.
Higher levels for EUR/USD?There is no denying that Europe’s shared currency (EUR) is having a strong year against the US dollar (USD) so far, with the EUR/USD pair rising by almost 10%.
Monthly support in play
In one fell swoop, April’s price action made short work of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0904 and the monthly resistance at US$1.1134. This prompted the unit to challenge monthly resistance at US$1.1457 and subsequently retest US$1.1134 as support.
Arguably, if bulls maintain their position north of the mentioned support and eventually absorb the offers at the current resistance, this could reveal a strong bullish scenario for the pair, targeting resistance between US$1.2028 and US$1.1930.
Daily AB=CD resistance unlikely to draw much selling
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, buyers and sellers are squaring off around an ‘alternate’ AB=CD resistance level from US$1.1386 (a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) – a level complemented by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio from US$1.1383.
Based on monthly flow rebounding from support at US$1.1134, I do not expect the EUR/USD to venture much beyond US$1.1283 on the daily chart: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio derived from legs A-D (US$1.1065-US$1.1419).
Short-term dip below US$1.13?
Short-term price action on the H1 chart shows the pair rebounded from the US$1.13 handle in recent trading, though overhead resistance between US$1.1358 and US$1.1340 is calling for attention. Additional support to be aware of below US$1.13 resides in the form of a trendline support, extended from the low of US$1.1091, together with support from US$1.1266.
Ultimately, I expect H1 price to respect current resistance and drive through US$1.13 bids towards H1 trendline support mentioned above. Knowing said H1 support aligns with the daily timeframe’s 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio, tapping into liquidity south of US$1.13 will likely help drive bigger players to buy.
HOT PICK ALERT - HUGE RR ! USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W22 D28 Y25👀 USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W22 D28 Y25
🔥HOT PICK ALERT - HUGE RR ! 🔥
WHAT IF THE 4h 50EMA HOLD NORTH - BULL RUN MOON LONG !
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation & breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 🔥
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) - Consolidation Above Support Trendline -DailyBitcoin (BTCUSDT) price is currently consolidating above a trendline support level (between $107,000 and $109,000).
Bitcoin price has been in an uptrend throughout May 2025.
If Bitcoin price closes below $106,000 a pullback could occur down to $104,000 and $100,000.
Support Levels: $107K, $105K, $103K, $100K, $95K, $90K.
Resistance Levels: $110K, $112K, $120K, $130, $136K, $150.
Stock market correlations and corporate earnings could affect short-term price action for Bitcoin (e.g. S&P500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Dell, Marvell, etc).
Breaking News, corporate earnings and announcements, presidential and government law changes, and consumer sentiment can all affect the price of Bitcoin.
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.21
1st Support: 99.08
1st Resistance: 101.14
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZDUSD 1D Golden Cross, final bull signal.The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern that only broke during the early April sell-off and has found Support near its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on its recent May consolidation.
As the 1D MACD just formed the 4th Bullish Cross of the year we expect this long with the emerging 1D Golden Cross to be the final buy signal before a long-term correction. Our Target is 0.60900 representing a +4.30% rise, the minimum previous within this pattern.
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Steepening Yields & Uncertainty: What says the Bond Markets?
CBOT:ZN1!
US Yield Curve in Image Above
Showing yields on May 27, 2024 vs May 27, 2025 . What happened in a year and how to understand this?
Looking at the image above, the yield curve was inverted on this day last year. Comparing last year’s term structure to today’s, we can see that the yield curve has steepened sharply.
What does this signify? Let’s dive deeper as we share our insights and assessment of what the bond market is doing.
At the March 16, 2022, meeting, the FED finally pivoted away from their "transitory inflation" narrative to a significant supply shocks narrative—supply-demand imbalances and Russia-Ukraine war-related uncertainty. This started a rate hike cycle, with rates peaking at 5.25%–5.50% in the July 26, 2023, meeting.
The Fed Funds rate was reduced by 100 bps, with a cut of 50 bps on September 18, 2024, and two cuts of 25 bps in the November and December 2024 meetings. The FED paused its rate cutting at the start of the year, citing—as we have all heard recently—that the inflation outlook remains tilted to the upside, and given policy uncertainty and trade tariffs, the risk to slowing growth continues to increase. Businesses are holding back spending due to this confusion and continued uncertainty. ** Refer to the image of FED rate path above.
The start of the rate hike cycle also began the FED’s balance sheet reduction program—from a peak of $8.97 trillion to the current balance of $6.69 trillion. **Refer to the image of FED's balance sheet above.
Rates remained elevated at these levels to bring down inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Inflation has currently eased to 2.3% as of April 2025. Refer to the CPI YoY image above.
Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, and most recently non-voter Kashkari (FED) highlighted stagflationary risks. FED Chair Powell noted risks to both sides of its dual mandate in its most recent meeting March 19, 2025.
In the March meeting, they also announced a slower pace of reducing Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. In this announcement, Treasury securities reduction slowed from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, while maintaining agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities reduction at the same pace.
Many participants and analysts noted this as a dovish pivot. However, given the current market conditions and the supply-demand imbalance emerging within US Treasury and bond markets, we note the rising yields.
The yield curve steepening signifies that investors want better return on their bond holdings. The interesting turn of events here is that US Treasuries and bonds have not provided the safety they usually do in times of uncertainty and policy risk. The dollar has fallen in tandem with bonds, resulting in a devalued dollar and rising yields. Thirty-year yields touched the 5% level, and the DXY index traded at levels last seen in March 2022.
Looking deeper under the hood, we note that a repeat of COVID-pandemic-style stimulus measures may perhaps result in an uncontrollable inflation spiral. The ballooning twin deficits—i.e., trade and budget deficits—with the new “Big Beautiful Bill,” or as some analysts joked, noting this as a foreshadowing of the newest credit rating: “BBB.”
Any black swan event may just be the catalyst needed to tip these dominoes to start falling.
As we previously noted in some of our commentary, debt service payments are now more than defense spending.
The new bill, once passed, is going to add another $2.5 trillion to the deficit. While the deficit is an issue in the US, it is important to note that it is a global issue.
The key question here will be: in due time, will the US bond market and US dollar regain their usual haven status? Or will we continue seeing diversification into Gold, Bitcoin, and global markets?
So, to summarize these mechanics playing out in the US and global markets—in our view—sure, the US administration, one may debate, is not helping by creating this environment of uncertainty in global trade, coupled with a worsening deficit and higher-for-longer rates. The markets currently are perhaps at their most unpredictable stage, with so much going on in the US and across the world.
It is still too early to write off US exceptionalism, and there will be value in rotating back to US markets once the dust on policy uncertainty settles. We suggest that investors stay diversified, watch for any upside surprises to the inflation and do not chase yields blindly as the move may already be overstretched. It is also our view that we are past the extreme policy uncertainty having already noted Trump put when ES Futures fell over 20%.
Although note that near All-time highs or at 6000 level, we are likely to see further headline risks until trade deals are locked in. As always, be nimble, pragmatic and be ready to adjust with evolving market conditions.
Definitions
Plain-language definition: A “basis point” (bps) is 0.01%. So, a 50 bps cut = 0.50% reduction in interest rates.
Plain-language definition: A steep yield curve means long-term interest rates are much higher than short-term ones. This can reflect rising inflation expectations or increased risk.
A “black swan event”—an unpredictable crisis—could set off a chain reaction if confidence in US finances weakens further.
Trade deficit: Importing more than exports
Budget deficit: Government spending far more than it earns
gold on sell#XAUUSD price have reached the max decline base on past price movement and now we wait for breakout below the low to keep selling.
Below 3292.6 have bearish continuation which will target between 3285 for bullish reverse or a drop below 3281 will keep falling till 3270. SL 3306
The bullish range needs a long candle to confirm.
EURUSD Rally already underway on the 1D MA50.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since practically the beginning of the year. The recent rebound (May 12) on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has technically started the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
Given that the previous two have risen by +7.50% on average, and were both confirmed by a 1D MACD Bullish Cross like the one formed today, we expect a minimum +7.20% rise from the bottom. Our Target is 1.18500.
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