Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2497, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2522
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2489. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
DJ FXCM Index
Sell EURUSD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1060, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1015
2nd Support – 1.0988
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1100 This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
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Thank you.
Will the dollar bounce back from its current decline?
The US July PCE was in line with market consensus. Headline PCE prices rose 0.2% from a month ago and 2.5% from a year ago, which aligns with market expectations. Core PCE, the Fed's price benchmark, rose only 0.16%, slower than the previous month's 0.18%. This is the lowest level this year and has catalyzed the market sentiment of the Fed’s rate cut.
It is worth noting that despite a 0.3% increase in personal income, surpassing the previous month's 0.2%, the savings rate remains alarmingly low. This is because personal consumption expenditures are growing at a faster rate than personal income.
The current savings rate has dropped to 2.9%, marking only the second instance in the past 16 years, since the global financial crisis, the savings rate has fallen to the 2% range.
This implies that consumption in the United States could decline quickly, serving as a cautionary signal that if employment falters, there may be insufficient buffers to sustain consumption.
DXY sustained its uptrend after breaking out of the descending channel and advanced to 101.60. The price consolidates around the 101.50-101.70 range, waiting for an additional price trigger.
If the price breaches the resistance at 101.80 while holding above the EMA, the price may gain upward momentum toward 102.60. Conversely, if DXY fails to stay above both EMAs and retreats to the support at 100.50, the price could fall further to the 100.00 threshold.
FULL DXY ANALYSISHello my wonderful community !
it’s been a while I posted.
I really appreciate you guys for reviewing my charts
Kindly like and comment on how you feel the market will go , I’m open to learn and communicate with other hardworking traders on here.
The colors for each line/zone
Monthly - Yellow
Weekly - Orange
Daily - Green
4H - Red
1H - Purple
My Monthly chart view:
Ever since 2010, price has been in an uptrend by making higher highs and higher lows.
Price keeps breaking major resistance areas and turning them to dynamic support areas and respects the EMA 50 anytime it makes a correction.
Take note as price is trending upwards and respecting the channel constructed.
My Weekly chart view:
Going into the weekly TimeFrame, it is truly clear that price entered a range from 2017 until 2022 before the bulls came in fully in early 2022 and made an Uptrend and breaking the resistance with bullish candles before exerting a correction and respecting the newly formed support.
My Daily chart view:
I also noticed a range forming due to this same correction between the areas marked in red.
Notice the double top indicating a reversal after the break of the neck line. After the invalidation of the Red daily trend line by the break with bearish engulfing candle, The bears take full control driving the price down to an area of Demand.
Price is in a downtrend as this is due to the correction observed in the bigger timeframe
To play safe i feel i can capture a buy setup after the break and retest of the upper red resistance but that will take forever.
My 4H chart view:
I capitalized on this trade by executing based on my trading strategy with a nice sell setup after the break of the neckline with a risk: reward of 1:2.
So I’ll go further and look for buy Setups as we are in this same 4H time frame
Price currently approached an Area of Demand (this area also serves as a major support zone and has been respected multiple times )and bulls seems to be coming in strong with rising momentum.
My 1H chart view:
Sometimes we just have to go further with the believe that the market will reveal its hand , so I’m patiently waiting for buy setups as price is gaining momentum with the EMA 14 crossing over the EMA 50 and price still respecting the area of Demand and major support zone.
EURUSD Long-term Sell Signal confirmed.The EURUSD pair confirmed with last week's closing the start of a new bearish sequence as it closed the 1W candle in deep red below even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This established not only the previous High as the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 11-month Channel Up but also posted an identical long-term Top sequence as the July 17 2023 weekly candle.
As you can see on both tops a long-term series of red weeks was initiated, both of then stopping on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. As a result, our 1.0900 medium-term bearish Target appears to be a modest one as it is where we anticipate the first wave of buyers (Support) on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) 1W MA100 (green trend-line) cluster. This may provide a bounce similar to February 12 2024.
As a side-note, notice how the 1W RSI posted a similar rejection - reversal top on the 70.00 overbought barrier, same as July 10 2023.
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Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) Ascending Triangle in H1The XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2513.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2485
2nd Support – 2461.50
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2530. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Still Bearish on DXYDXY can see some correction to the upside and reach 102.5 or even climb up to 103.5 before September 18, 2024, which, most probably we'll see the first rate cut after a long time.
So be patient and wait for this week's NFP.
Check out my post on June 11 to see how DXY followed our yellow scenario. 😉
USDCHF outlookI am not trading USDCHF (I only trade GBPUSD), but I made an outlook of what to expect for the coming weeks.
We confirmed a 30m bos which creates buying interest. Previous structure low is taken out so major liquidity is taken while mitigating from a strong demand. A break on the 1H TF would give more confluence although this has not happened yet.
If price fails to break the 1H structure, a buy order can still be placed due to the fact that m30 is broken, with the intention to rise higher.
Keep in mind that price always does whatever it wants, a liquditity run to the downside (before going up) is still possible as HTF is still bearish for me.
Target: T.b.c. as this can be a swing trade
USDCHF - Short Trade IdeaThis a short trade idea I have for the USDCHF.
It is pretty straight-forward. Trade back into a Weekly iFVG and SIBI then move lower from there. First target is the immediate swing low, and the second target is the older low to the left. Entry somewhere in the gap, and stoploss above the high that entered the previous SIBI.
Sometimes I feel as though I should make my analysis more complicated so it can get featured, but truth be told, there is nothing useful about having a complicated analysis. In terms of technical analysis, this is as accurate and simple as it gets. And usually if a trade is wrong, there is unanticipated news or the tides have turned and a trade in the opposite direction is warranted.
- R2F
DXY, what is next bro?DXY analysis 1/09/24💵
Few things about it:
DXY is oversold and it has 4h and daily FVG higher +
It just tested the bottom of the global range (almost 2 years in consolidation), and most likely it will bounce till dFVG,
On 15m and 1h time frame, DXY has an uptrend (MS( ChoCH) and BoS) until the uptrend on 1h is not broken I will not consider reversal on DXY
DXY and EUR always fill their gaps on high time frames, before they move further and the next move on DXY will be final, so most likely it will keep going higher till 0.5 zone ( equilibrium) of this global range ~103.2-103.4 area
Considering all of this I will expect EUR and all pairs that trade against USD will be bearish unless the uptrend on 1h is broken with DOUBLE shifts only then i will consider DXY's reversal
USD Last week,light news, USD bounce during mid of last weekHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
As mentioned last week to be cautious on shorting USD , it came to play during midweek that there was a bounce. Nice.
This week might see continued retracement to $102.25 area and let's see if there's more hint from this coming week's NFP for USD direction. A couple of high impact news for USD this week. Trade with care!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;
I suggest you read it to the end.
This type of chart is used to understand how much Bitcoin has gained or lost in value relative to the Narrow Money Supply in the US.
In the chart, the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is plotted against the US Narrow Money Supply (M1). M1 includes money in circulation (cash) and demand deposits at banks. This type of ratio can help to understand how valuable Bitcoin is in the macroeconomic environment.
In a nutshell;
If the chart is rising : Bitcoin is rising.
If the chart is falling : The US money supply is increasing.
If the US money supply increases and Bitcoin's market capitalization remains the same, then the chart will fall again. It means that Bitcoin is losing value against the US dollar.
In short, we need to look more carefully at what is causing the decline.
When does the US Narrow Money Supply (M1) appreciate?
- Raising interest rates
- Economic empowerment
- Liquidity reduction
The first 2 points above are not hard to guess, but let's elaborate on point 3;
The FED may implement monetary tightening policies to reduce the amount of dollars in the market. In this case, the money supply may contract and the value of the dollar may rise. This is called illiquidity.
To summarize;
An appreciation of the US money supply often puts pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin and can depress their prices.
There are also important historical notes above the chart
The white trend line is important . Because every time it comes here, we see that it experiences strong price movements with important news.
Therefore, it may be necessary to follow the agenda closely when it comes to this trend line again.
Bullish bounce?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 101.02
1st Support: 100.52
1st Resistance: 101.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis.
As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again.
We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel.
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USDCAD Buy opportunity on extremely oversold RSIThe USDCAD pair hit both of our targets on the sell signal we gave a month ago (July 25, see chart below) as it is currently on a 4-week red candle streak:
We now start switching to a bullish medium-term strategy as we get clear signals of a pending trend reversal. The price isn't only on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from Support 2 but the 1D RSI also hit the oversold bottom level of the December 26 2023 Low.
As you can see on this chart, every time the 1D RSI broke below the 30.00 oversold barrier in the past 12 months and reversed even a little, the USDCAD pair bottomed on the medium-term and targeted Resistance 1. Even the smaller April 14 2023 reversal (which wasn't from an oversold RSI) targeted the 0.618 retracement level.
As a result, we apply a two tier buy entry, one now and the 2nd at the less likely event the price approaches Support 1 (-5.40% decline, the most it had on a 2-year basis). In both cases, our Target is 1.37500 (0.618 Fib).
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EUR/USD Set for a Bearish ReversalThe EUR/USD pair is currently approaching a significant resistance zone, which is highlighted in the chart.
After a strong bullish move, the price has shown signs of weakening momentum, suggesting that this resistance area could act as a reversal point.
The resistance zone around 1.1200 - 1.1185 is crucial. A rejection here could lead to a significant drop toward the next support level at 1.1135, as indicated by the projected path on the chart.
A possible double top pattern is forming, which is a classic reversal pattern. If the price fails to break above the resistance and forms a second top, it could signal a strong short opportunity.
In conclusion, EUR/USD is showing signs of potential bearish reversal at a critical resistance zone. Traders should watch for price action confirmation and manage risk accordingly as this setup unfolds.
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) Bullish ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent formation of well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2511, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2537
2nd Support – 2551
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2499. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.