DXY Weekly - Dollar IndexSimple Trading - Wyckoff Event
If the event has started then the dollar index will have one heck of a year coming into Q1 and Q2.
Watch for volume change on the intraday day time frame and expect the trend to continue bullish.
Long story short the DXY is growing strong with the rise of BTC and Donald Trump being elected President.
Targets:
109.40 - previous support
111.50 - .616 Fibb level
113.80 - .50 Fibb level
DJ FXCM Index
Bullish Liquidity Grab on USD/SGD ExpectedTechnical Analysis
Monthly Chart:
On the monthly chart, USD/SGD has shown a recovery after testing significant support zones, indicating that buyers stepped in to defend these levels. However, the recent upward movement appears overextended, suggesting a potential slowdown or correction in the near term. This aligns with broader market dynamics and the technical exhaustion seen after extended bullish runs.
Daily Chart:
The daily chart offers more clarity on current price action:
Double High Formation: Two equal highs have formed on the chart, a classic indication of liquidity resting above these levels. From a price behavior perspective, this suggests that the market is likely to push upward to liquidate these equal highs before considering a significant move lower.
Consolidation Zone: The price is currently consolidating, which often precedes a breakout. This consolidation reinforces the likelihood of a push higher to clear liquidity, especially when aligned with the broader USD dynamics.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Dollar Factors Impacting USD/SGD:
The strength of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) plays a crucial role in USD/SGD movements. Here's how recent developments affect the pair:
Liquidity Grab in DXY: The DXY recently breached its key level of 107.348 and is now showing bearish tendencies. However, short-term bullish corrections could provide temporary support for USD/SGD, aligning with the potential liquidity grab above the equal highs on the daily chart.
Interest Rate Outlook:
The Federal Reserve has shown hesitancy toward further rate cuts due to inflation concerns.
Robust labor market conditions, especially during the holiday season, reduce the immediate likelihood of aggressive rate cuts.
However, rising unemployment or stable-to-declining inflation could shift this outlook, leading to USD weakness and potential corrections in USD/SGD.
Upcoming Economic Catalysts:
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data later this week are expected to influence USD sentiment significantly. If unemployment increases as expected, it could lead to a broader decline in the U.S. Dollar, impacting USD/SGD.
Summary and Outlook
Technical Expectations:
Short-Term: USD/SGD is likely to push higher to liquidate the equal highs on the daily chart, given the consolidation and market behavior around these liquidity zones.
Post-Liquidity Grab: After clearing the highs, a correction is probable, particularly if the broader U.S. Dollar weakens. This correction could take the pair back toward key support levels, depending on fundamental triggers.
Key Factors to Monitor:
DXY price action, particularly around its short-term support zones.
NFP and unemployment data for clues on the U.S. labor market and inflation trends.
Any changes in Federal Reserve policy outlook or macroeconomic developments in Singapore.
Price Outlook:
In the short term, USD/SGD may target the equal highs as a liquidity zone.
In the medium term, the pair could correct lower following the liquidity grab, aligning with overextended technical patterns and potential USD weakness driven by fundamental factors.
By aligning technical insights with the fundamental outlook for the U.S. Dollar, traders can anticipate near-term bullish moves in USD/SGD, followed by a potential correction.
Silver XAG/USD Bearish FlagThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 30.11
2nd Support – 29.86
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Sell EURUSD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0437
2nd Support – 1.0410
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EURUSD: Best opportunity to buy for the long term.EURUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.973, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 14.482) but almost still oversold on 1W (RSI = 35.674). This is because after the November 18th 1W candle bottom on the LL trendline of the 2 year Channel Down, it has completed 2 red weeks in a row. Still, having rebounded on oversold 1W RSI territory, those low levels present an excellent buy opportunity for those who missed the bottom. Every bounce on the Channel Down bottom has made at least a +5.42% rally, and that is what we're aiming for (TP = 1.0900). This may coincide with a 1W MA200 test.
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gold forming bearish#XAUUSD firstly today Is Fed rate, price expected maybe differ from what we are expecting. #Gold have been sideways since past hours which holds multiple breakout, now below 2645 holds bearish which will fall below 2639-2628, stop loss 2652.75, but if the H1 candle closes any longer candle on buy then possible reach is 2674 which holds sell retracment also.
XAU/USD (Gold) Wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2678
2nd Support – 2692
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USD/JPY carry trade explainedCurrently, the USD/JPY pair is trading around 154.26, influenced by upcoming policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The US Fed's anticipated 25bps rate cut could potentially narrow the interest rate gap, affecting the carry trade's immediate appeal. However, the strong performance of the US economy, with robust job growth and rising inflation, might sustain the dollar's strength, keeping the carry trade attractive. Meanwhile, the BoJ's steady interest rate at 0.25% and potential for future hikes offer a contrasting backdrop, maintaining the yen's role as a low-interest currency. Global economic uncertainties and political changes in both the US and Japan could impact these dynamics, so traders should monitor central bank signals and economic data closely to navigate potential shifts in the carry trade's profitability.
Dollar Index (DXY): One More Bullish Movement
Yesterday, I predicted a nice pullback on Dollar Index.
It looks like today, we have one more.
The price testing a key intraday/daily horizontal support
and formed a double bottom on that.
Bullish violation of its neckline may push the market higher.
Goal - 107.1
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Dollar Index (DXY): Clear Strength?!
Looks like Dollar Index is ready for more growth.
I see 2 strong bullish confirmations after a retest of a recently broken horizontal resistance:
the price violated a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle and a neckline of a horizontal range.
A strong bullish imbalance indicates a high momentum.
We can anticipate more growth.
Goal - 107.13
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EURUSD Bottom formation in progress. Strong Buy.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a nearly 2-year Channel Down. Being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since October 02 2024, this is technically still the pattern's Bearish Leg.
However, having bottomed on November 22 and transitioned into a (dotted) Channel Up, this is the technical bottom formation of the long-term Channel Down and the rise following a 1D MACD Bullish Cross from such a low level (the lowest in 2 years), confirms that.
The similarities with both previous bottom formations (September - October 2023 and February - March 2023) are obvious, all of them triple bottomed before rebounding above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, buying now and targeting 1.08765 (Fib 0.618) is an excellent long-term trade in terms of R/R.
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xauusd on bearish range#XAUUSD on double retracment, price based on H4 past candle have corrected on same direction which turns out bearish, firstly we expect 2644 then breakout below the D1 low will drop below. Sell stop at 2657, take profit 2644-2630, stop loss 2665. Gold bullish is not strong for today.
BTCUSD Wyckoff Accumulation Phase completedLets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system.
The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action.
Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the Bitcoin 🚀 camp so I am also talking up my own book.
However, if we look to Wyckoff and transpose his teachings on the stages of the accumulation phase, we get quite a convincing outlook to the upside.
It could all be down to the fact that we see what we want to see, or it could be a run on the banks to the crypto-sphere.
US INDEX BULLISH PROJECTION The US INDEX has closed last weeks weekly candle very bullish after retesting the weekly Trendline break and rebounding from it. With that in mind I’m seeing this weeks weekly candle as a possible bullish candle for end of week, for that scenario to play out we would have to hold 1-4 hr support @ 106.200-106.400. Target for the week 107.300-107.500.. let’s get through this week and see if the bulls keep control going into 2025.
Xau/usd | Analysis Daily to H4 TimeframeXau/usd | Analysis Daily to H4 Timeframe
- This Analysis is based on Educational Purposes
- We Are observing the market and we have seen that market have a volume as bearish and still market is in sell trend
what we are expecting ?
we are expected 2665.00 is our observation area because market have to touched this point firstly after that it will create a lowest lowest and complete its right leg which are clearly define in video
so if you need any assistance you can search us on social media platforms
DXY Best level for a long-term short.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a 1.5 year Channel Up pattern (since July 14 2023) and just 2 weeks ago it formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame. Having hit the pattern's top a week earlier, the current rebound seems to technically be part of the Lower Highs/ Lower Lows top formation, similar to October 03 - November 01 2023 peak.
That was 1 year again, a peak formation that was also formed after a 1D Golden Cross. This indicates that the long-term pattern (Channel Up) is highly symmetrical and as the 1W RSI is also declining after a rejection on the 70.00 overbought barrier, we consider the current level the best possible short entry.
The Bearish Leg that followed the 2023 High extended as low as the 0.786 Fibonacci level. As a result, we expect to see at least 102.000 (just above the 0.786 Fib) before any signs of a rebound.
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Sell EUR/USD Channel BrekoutThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0482
2nd Support – 1.0445
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Is USD Setting Up for a Retrace?👀 👉 The DXY (USD) has shown strong momentum, rebounding sharply from a key support level and pushing into this 4H resistance zone. In my view, the price seems overextended, and I’m anticipating a retracement within the current price swing range back to equilibrium. 📢 *Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice.
USD/CHF price action: bullish momentum after SNB decisionThe Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.5%, the largest reduction since January 2015, has sent the Swiss franc to its lowest value against the US dollar since November 2022. These aggressive cuts aim to bolster Switzerland's economy amidst rising unemployment and global uncertainties by making borrowing more affordable. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair has surged above 0.89019, driven by the franc's depreciation and the broader positive sentiment towards the US dollar, which remains strong despite a slight dip. The Federal Reserve's cautious optimism concerning US inflation and a robust labor market suggests a gradual pace of future rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength relative to the franc. In the short term, if the SNB maintains its accommodative strategy while the Fed takes a measured approach, the USD/CHF's bullish momentum could persist. Traders should stay attuned to upcoming economic data and central bank communications, which will provide crucial insights into monetary policy shifts affecting the USD/CHF exchange rate.
USDCAD: Excellent short term buy opportunity.USDCAD is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.681, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 22.105) as it trades inside a Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50. The 4H MACD is forming a Bullish Cross and in the past 2 months this has been a strong bullish signal. In line with the previous bullish waves, we are aiming for a +2.60% rise from the bottom (TP = 1.42850).
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