USD/JPY shortPeople are getting hyped up waiting for the 5th wave on this thing but it’s not finished it’s correction yet short for now.
DJ FXCM Index
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
(November/2024)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
"US Inflation Rate Rises to 2.7%, Matching Expectations "
-The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 2.7% in November,
from 2.6% in October and matching markets expectations pushed up by food cost.
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.3%, the most since April, slightly above October's 0.2%, driven mostly by higher prices of shelter.
What Can You Expect from the US CPI Report?The November US CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index) will be widely watched today at 1:30 pm GMT.
Headline CPI Inflation Forecast to Have Increased in November
According to Refinitiv data, headline YY (year-on-year) CPI inflation is expected to have risen to 2.7% from 2.6% in October, marking a second consecutive month of increasing price pressures. YY core CPI inflation, which excludes energy and food components, is forecast to have risen to 3.3%, matching September and October’s reports. On a month-on-month (MM) basis, headline CPI inflation is anticipated to have increased by 0.3% from 0.2% in October, with MM core CPI inflation forecast to have reached 0.3%, similar to October’s report.
As most will be aware, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) works with a dual mandate: to promote maximum employment and maintain stable prices.
We saw from Friday’s US Employment Situation Report for November that while job growth modestly surpassed expectations (220,000), adding 227,000 jobs, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1% in October. Therefore, we were left with a somewhat mixed bag.
Regarding inflation progress, it is no secret that the Fed is expecting some bumps along the road, and that the recent acceleration in recent months is not ideal. However, I do not believe recent data are sufficient to derail the easing cycle at this point. Yet, it has led some Fed officials to underline the possibility of adopting more of a cautious stance at upcoming meetings, and rightly so. The elevated inflation numbers we have seen in previous months will likely lead the Fed to kick off 2025 tentatively. This is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump, which further complicates the inflation outlook.
Inflation Remains Above Fed Target
Here is where we stand according to October’s overall inflation data, proving ‘sticky’ north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. YY CPI inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, YY PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) rose to 2.4% from 1.9%, and YY PCE data (Personal Consumption Expenditures) elbowed to 2.3% from 2.1%. Core YY CPI inflation remained at 3.3%, core PPI inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, and core PCE data rose to 2.8% from 2.7%. So, while inflation has slowed considerably since the pandemic, inflationary pressures show evidence of stubbornness. PCE data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is holding just north of 2.0%, and core PCE has stalled around the 2.8% mark amid increased consumption, particularly in services.
Fed Rate Cut Largely Priced in Next Week
For next week’s meeting, I feel the Fed will likely cut rates unless we get hot inflation data today, which would be a catalyst for a USD bid (an in-line print will not change much). Markets are currently assigning an 85% probability that the Fed will pull the trigger again next week and reduce the target on the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25-4.50%.
You may recall that the Fed has already cut rates by 75 bps this year, with a 25 bp reduction in November and a 50 bp cut in September.
Dollar Outlook Ahead of the Event
According to the US Dollar Index, things are looking up for the USD ahead of the CPI release. The monthly chart shows November probed year-to-date highs of 108.07 and likely consumed a large portion of stops above neighbouring highs to pave the way north towards another layer of resistance at 109.33.
Adding to the bullish vibe on the monthly scale, the daily chart saw price action trade through the upper boundary of a bullish pennant pattern drawn from the high of 108.07 and low of 106.11. This could technically underpin further buying towards at least 108.07 and, with a bit of oomph, towards monthly resistance from 109.33.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
XAUUSD - 4hr Bum n Run update (final)Let the Trade ride! Understand pullbacks will happen but the price is in motion. Respect the trend.
Gold has officially broken about the accumulation phase. Price has retraced back to previous resistance confirming new support. (2675)
Keep in mind:
Today
Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y
Thu
Dec 12
Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m
**Both of these red news events could shift the short term. watch for wicks and false breakouts
USDT Dominance Testing Key SupportCRYPTOCAP:USDT Dominance: Testing key 4.03%-4.07% support with bearish pressure from a descending trendline. A breakdown may target 3.95% or lower. Watch for resistance reclaim above 4.10%.
EURUSD Trading Idea EUR/USD dipped 0.2% on Tuesday, marking its third straight decline as it approaches the key 1.0500 level. The Euro’s recent bullish momentum is fading, with traders shifting to a cautious stance ahead of two major events:
US CPI Data (Wednesday): A pivotal release ahead of the Fed's final 2024 meeting. Inflation is expected to tick up to 2.7% YoY (from 2.6%), with core CPI holding steady at 3.3%. Any signs of stalled progress could dash hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18, fueling USD volatility.
ECB Rate Decision (Thursday): The ECB is widely anticipated to deliver another quarter-point rate cut. Forecasts suggest the Main Refinancing Operations Rate will be trimmed to 3.15% (from 3.4%), and the Deposit Facility Rate is expected to drop to 3.0% (from 3.25%).
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Entry Opportunity with SMC and Fibonacci
Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the key zone between the 0.71 and 0.79 Fibonacci levels is shaping up as a critical area of interest. Following the creation of a fair value gap at the last high, the price is now testing the 50% Fibonacci level, setting the stage for a potential trade setup.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: 1.05520 (aligned with the 0.75 Fibonacci level)
Stop Loss: 1.05697 (just above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for added risk protection)
Take Profit: 1.04990 (targeting below the fair value gap for optimal risk-to-reward)
Risk/Reward Insights:
This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.98. By risking 17.7 pips to gain 53 pips, you're maximizing reward relative to risk.
Disclaimer:
Trading carries significant risks, and it’s essential to practice strict risk management. Always trade with a clear plan, use stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—ensure you understand the risks before making any decisions.
Follow for more trading ideas, strategies, and insights to level up your trading game!
USDJPY Channel Up bottomed. Very strong BUY.USDJPY is trading inside a Channel Up and the price is starting to recover from November's bearish wave correction.
It has already crossed above the MA50 (4h) and only the MA200 (4h) remains to confirm the trend shift.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses above the MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 162.500 (top of the Channel Up and under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is printing a cup into Channel Up pattern, identical to the previous Low of the Channel Up. An additional buy signal.
Please like, follow and comment!!
NZD/USD price action: kiwi softens amid economic uncertaintyThe NZD/USD pair fell to 0.57592, reflecting significant pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) ongoing monetary easing strategy, which includes recent interest rate cuts and the potential for further reductions in 2025. This easing is meant to stimulate New Zealand's economic activity by boosting consumer spending and investment. However, the growing divergence between New Zealand's and the U.S.'s monetary policies could lead to additional depreciation of the kiwi. The Federal Reserve's consideration of interest rate hikes, amid rising U.S. inflation expectations, strengthens the U.S. dollar, potentially attracting global investors seeking better returns and causing capital outflows from New Zealand. These factors could further pressure the NZD. Meanwhile, China's upcoming economic stimuli, expected to be announced at the annual Politburo conference, could positively impact the kiwi due to New Zealand's strong trade ties with China. Additionally, upcoming U.S. inflation data will likely influence market expectations regarding future Fed actions, which could further shape NZD/USD dynamics. Traders should prepare for volatility in the NZD/USD pair as these global economic developments unfold.
EURUSD: Standard Channel Up targeting above the 4H MA200.EURUSD may have turned bearish today on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.238, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 33.591) but 4H remains neutral as the pullback is the technical bearish wave of the Channel Up you see on the chart. The two bullish waves we've had so far have been exactly the same at +1.65% with the 4H RSI S1 Zone providing the most accurate buy entries. Consequently, this is now the best level to go long and target a crossing over the 4H MA200 on another +1.65% bullish wave (TP = 1.06675).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAD JPY Entry Setup 30 mins timeframe.30 mins Supply Zone
Lets wait for price to pull into the 30 mins supply zone, we will enter based off candlesticks confirmations.
DXY 1W Forecast until March 2025Consolidation below 106 will last until October 2024.
Breakout will happen in October peaking at 111-112 followed by a retest (mid November 2024 - January 2025).
Further upward movement + correction will happen in January-March 2025 between the top of 113-114 and the bottom of 105-ish.
Consecutive HH and HL will be followed by rapid increase in pace of changes: time will shrink and levels will expand.
This will mark the start of hard times of Greatest Depression in March 2025 sending all markets down and making USD the king.
USDT Dominance Breakdown Ahead?USDT Dominance (USDT.D) has formed a bearish inverted cup and handle pattern, pointing to a big move soon!
The weekly chart of USDT dominance shows a clear bearish inverted cup and handle pattern, with a significant breakdown below the neckline. The projected target suggests a potential 60% decline, which could take the dominance to the 1.6-2% range.
This might indicate a shift in market dynamics, with capital rotating from stablecoins into altcoins or Bitcoin. A key moment to watch for crypto traders.
What’s your take on this? Could this spark an altcoin rally?
Buy USD/CHF Channel Breakout for next CPI DATAThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8848
2nd Support – 0.8888
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
EURUSD Crucial test on the 4H MA200. Bullish if broken.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone since the September 30 High, which is technically the Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Down pattern, which we saw on our previous analysis.
Having found support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the pair appears to be attempting another test on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected the last Lower High (November 05) and has been intact since October 01, making it practically the basic long-term Resistance.
As a result, if the 4H MA200 breaks, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone should follow too, which will cause a technical medium-term break-out. Our Target is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08765.
You may use the Higher Lows trend-line as an additional tool to determine if the break-out will be successful as last time (November 05) the failed to hold and caused the new Bearish Low of the Megaphone. Similar analogy with the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Sell GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2668
2nd Support – 1.2620
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance that has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 105.16
1st Support: 103.68
1st Resistance: 106.96
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Sell USD/JPY Channel BreakoutThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. OANDA:USDJPY
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 148.82
2nd Support – 148.18
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
US DOLLAR Weekly Forex Forecast: Look For BUYS This Week!USD INDEX is bullish for the short term... but bearish in the longer term. This week will have
opportunities for short term long positions. Just be mindful not to swing for home runs! The larger pullback seems to have started, so the bears are coming!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
"GBP/USD Breaks the Channel: A Bold Move to Reverse the Trend"The GBP/USD currency pair appears poised for potential growth as it approaches a critical breakout from the local trend resistance, supported by a broader correction in the U.S. dollar. This scenario emerges amidst weakening economic signals from the U.S., which are challenging the Federal Reserve's optimistic narrative.
### A Shift in Dynamics: Dollar Weakness and GBP Momentum
The U.S. dollar, long buoyed by hawkish Fed policies and resilient economic data, now faces increasing pressure. Yesterday's negative jobless claims data raised concerns about the strength of the labor market. All eyes are on today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, as worse-than-expected results could deepen the dollar's correction. Such developments would underscore cracks in the U.S. economy, contradicting recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested economic stability. This uncertainty opens the door for forex currencies, including GBP, to stage a rally.
### Technical Outlook: Breakout with Potential Upside
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is showing early signs of strength, with the retest of the intermediate bottom producing clear reversal candlestick patterns and a potential shift in market structure. The breakout from the existing price channel is a promising signal that could mark the beginning of a strong upward momentum. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with traders awaiting further confirmation before fully committing to a bullish trajectory.
Key **resistance levels** to monitor include 1.284 and the psychological level of 1.300. On the downside, **support levels** are established at 1.272, 1.261, and 1.2488. A sustained break above 1.284 could pave the way for a medium-term rally toward 1.300, while a false breakout could trigger a reversal, sending the price back toward 1.272 and potentially as low as 1.240.
### Zones of Interest: Bullish Scenario
Currently, the pair is positioned within a favorable zone for growth, with positive signs indicating a medium-term rise from 1.275 to 1.300. A strong push above these levels could signal a broader trend reversal, attracting further buying interest.
### Bearish Risks: What to Watch For
Despite the positive setup, risks remain. Should the pair fail to sustain its breakout and fall back below 1.272, bearish momentum could accelerate. This would open the door for a decline toward 1.240, especially if the NFP data exceeds expectations and strengthens the dollar temporarily.
### The Big Picture: Caution vs. Opportunity
While the technical signals are promising, the sustainability of GBP/USD’s potential rally largely depends on the evolving narrative surrounding the U.S. dollar. A prolonged correction in the dollar, driven by weaker economic data, would provide the perfect backdrop for GBP to gain traction. However, any surprises in upcoming U.S. reports or shifts in Fed policy expectations could quickly dampen bullish sentiment.
For now, GBP/USD is at a pivotal moment. A breakout from its current resistance could serve as a launchpad for significant gains, but traders should remain vigilant, balancing optimism with the risks posed by a potentially resilient dollar.
USD Index // Preparation for the ExpansionThe Dollar Index is bearish on the daily, within the valid daily countertrend.
The H4 long countertrend is also valid, and since in this trend, there is no space to trade, I'm waiting for the market to turn south in the direction of the daily short trend.
My trigger is at the H4 breakout. Once this level is broken, I'm in to ride the wave down to the daily breakout (blue) and maybe to the weekly breakout (purple).
The correction fibo is drawn with thin black dashed lines, and 38.2 is pretty much in line with the daily breakout, therefore, a nice target.
Going for the correction fibo 50 is a bit more risky, and there is the weekly breakout along the way.
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
🏄🏼♂️
And feel free to express your opinion in the comments! 🙂
Weekly Forex Forecast: USD is Bullish In The Short Term!The USD Index closed last week very bearish, trading through the previous week's low. A pullback makes sense for this week, at least for the beginning of it. With NFP coming on Friday, trading up until Wed may be the safest way to go.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Transcript
USDJPY: Technical buy opportunity on RSI fractal.USDJPY turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.175, MACD = -0.460, ADX = 31.807) as it crossed under its 1D MA50 and has failed to recover it this week. Yet, this is technically a buy opportunity in disguise as this is the exact same pattern that the price did on the March 24th 2023 Low. After the initial bullish wave start of the long term Channel Up, the price pulled back again and formed that low with the RSI at 37.000. This is the level it is right now as well. We expect the bullish wave to resume the uptrend like it did then. We are again targeting the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, only a bit lower on the R1 level (TP = 161.870).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
