Plan Your Trades - SPY Research For 6/17 & BeyondI put together this video to help traders plan and prepare for the next 30-60+ days - as we move into Q2:2024 earnings and pre-election consolidation.
Every week, I spent hours going over my Custom Indexes, proprietary price modeling systems, sector analysis, and more. My goal is to help as many traders as possible prepare for the greatest opportunities of their life (the next 5 to 10+ years).
I see so many traders getting trapped into following free or paid internet advice and blowing up their accounts. In my opinion, stick to the basics. Price is the ultimate indicator.
Then, determine the true bias of price trend and identify strong candidates to profit within that trend.
If you are a daytrader - you probably won't like my research/comments. I don't really daytrade much. I'm more of a swing trader - looking for 8% to 25% swings that take 3 to 20+ weeks to mature.
Either way, this video will help you understand what to expect over the next 30-60+ days in the US/global markets. Prepare for a big move in late June or early July.
DJ FXCM Index
USDSGD Bullish unless this Support breaks.The USDSGD pair is on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) currently but within conflicting Channels. The long-term one is a Channel Up that hasn't yet been invalidated, the medium term one a Channel Down and the shortest term a Channel Up.
As long as Support 1 (1.34225) holds, we will go with the short-term Channel Up and stay bullish, targeting 1.37250, which will be a Lower High on the medium-term Channel Down. If on the other hand, Support 1 breaks, we will take the loss and go short instead, targeting 1.32725 (Support 2).
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XAUUSD - GOLD Zone 2322 rebounded💵GOLD PRICE AND ECONOMIC INFORMATION
Gold dropped to around $2,320 per ounce on Monday, following a more than 1% rise last week, under pressure from higher US Treasury yields, while market participants awaited further cues to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Last week's data indicated that US consumer prices held steady in May for the first time in nearly two years, while producer prices unexpectedly declined.
Analysis:
Gold is currently stuck in the price range
Current gold range: 2340 - 2295
Between the 2 EMAs of frame D.
Large frame H4 shows a clear selling trend
🔴SELL GOLD: 2340 - 2342, SL: 2346
🟢BUY GOLD: 2307 - 2305, SL: 2301
⛔️Breakout:
📈 Breakout on: 2340
📉 Breakout below: 2312
🔼Support: 2312 - 2305 - 2291 - 2286 - 2280- 2274
🔽Resistance: 2338 - 2340 - 2350
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE👍
Phoenix Motor Inc. (PEV) - Cup with Handle and Potential Bull FlTechnical Analysis:
Chart Patterns:
Phoenix Motor Inc. (PEV) is currently forming a Cup with Handle pattern, a bullish continuation signal. Additionally, a Bull Flag pattern may also be emerging.
Handle Formation: The handle of the Cup with Handle pattern is still forming, suggesting a potential breakout.
Bull Flag: The recent consolidation could also indicate a Bull Flag, another bullish signal.
Price Target: If a breakout occurs, the target price can be estimated based on the depth of the cup and the height of the flagpole.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just below the handle's low or the flag's support to manage risk.
Fundamental Analysis:
Revenue (2022): $5.03M
Net Income (2022): -$4.17M
Market Cap: $26.81M
Debt: $4.78M
Cash & Equivalents: $436K
Current Ratio: 0.65
Quick Ratio: 0.34
P/S Ratio: 5.33
P/B Ratio: 3.23
Conclusion:
Both technical patterns suggest bullish momentum, making Phoenix Motor Inc. a potential buy candidate upon breakout confirmation. Fundamentally, the company shows promise but faces challenges with profitability and liquidity.
Investment Note:
Trading stocks inherently involves risks. Always consider your financial situation and investment goals before making decisions.
Dollar's Rally Wins Over Traders as Fed Decision LoomsThe U.S. dollar capped its strongest weekly run since February, buoyed by a shift in sentiment among traders as they awaited the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. After weeks of anticipation of potential interest rate cuts, the market witnessed a reversal as the greenback regained its allure.
This recent surge comes from a five-day winning streak for the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies. The index rose by over 1% during this period, marking its most significant weekly advance since early 2024.
This bullish sentiment towards the dollar is a reversal from earlier market expectations. Previously, many traders had positioned themselves for a dovish turn from the Fed, anticipating potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year. This anticipation has contributed to a weakening of the dollar in recent months.
However, recent economic data and comments from Fed officials have cast doubt on the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. Upticks in inflation figures and a robust labor market have fueled speculation that the central bank might maintain its current hawkish stance for longer.
"The recent economic data has painted a somewhat different picture than what the market had initially expected," noted Sarah Lopez, a foreign exchange strategist at a leading investment bank. "Stronger inflation readings and a resilient job market suggest the Fed might need to stay the course on its tightening policy for a while longer."
This shift in expectations has prompted traders to reassess their positions. Many who had previously bet on a weaker dollar are now scrambling to cover their short positions, leading to a surge in demand for the greenback.
"We've seen a significant unwinding of short dollar positions in recent days," commented Michael Jones, a currency trader at a major financial institution. "The market is starting to price in the possibility that the Fed might hold off on rate cuts, and that's giving the dollar a much-needed boost."
"The Fed's language will be critical in determining the dollar's next move," said Lopez. "If the statement suggests a continued commitment to fighting inflation, the dollar could extend its gains. However, any dovish hints could trigger a renewed selloff."
Beyond the immediate impact of the Fed decision, the dollar's long-term prospects will depend on several factors, including the relative path of interest rates in the U.S. compared to other major economies.
"The dollar's strength will likely hinge on the divergence between U.S. monetary policy and that of other central banks," explained Jones. "If the Fed remains hawkish while other central banks stay accommodative, the dollar could continue to appreciate."
The recent resurgence of the dollar has implications for various asset classes. A stronger greenback can make U.S. exports more expensive and less competitive, potentially weighing on corporate profits. Conversely, it can make dollar-denominated assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, more attractive to foreign investors.
In conclusion, the dollar's recent rally underscores the dynamic nature of currency markets. As economic data and central bank pronouncements evolve, so too do investor expectations. The upcoming Fed decision is poised to be a pivotal moment for the dollar, with its outcome likely to shape the currency's trajectory in the coming months.
USD looking for some pullbacks to go longHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Pullbacks would be good for going long. Eurusd looks weak. But Gbpusd, audusd and nzdusd arent that on a higher timeframe. They are also at key levels , watching to hold or not...
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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R2F Weekly Analysis - 15th June 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
I feel like the Dollar Index is primed to move higher. It has so far been acting how I have anticipated, respecting institutional order flow.
Let's breakdown what has happening, and my thought process around it.
In May, price retraced after a consolidation, engineering equal highs. This bodes well for my bullish outlook.
Price bottomed it's retracement on the 7th June 2024. If you check the Dollar futures chart took out buyside liquidity and created an SMT divergence on the DXY chart. Because of this, I am more confident in price not coming down to take out the relative equal lows below.
Price expanded from there, and retraced into a weekly wick CE coupled with a daily bullish Orderblock, halting in its tracks and expanding higher again. The sudden drop and equally sudden recover adds additional confluence to my bullish outlook, not because of the "strength" but because of the manipulation of sentiment.
Now we are re-entering a previously used weekly SIBI for the potential of using it as an iFVG. We did not close the weekly conventionally higher than the actual iFVG, as I would usually like, but the bullishness of the previous week's candle leaves the idea open of us expanding higher in the coming week with little retracement below it's open, therefore creating a BISI that may or may not be used later.
As for targets, first is the previous month's high that is coupled with equal highs. The two other targets are a weekly swing high that goes way back, and a New Week Opening Gap which is deeper into the general liquidity void residing above.
If you enjoyed this analysis, leave a like or a comment.
If you want to learn how to analyze like this, check out my profile for more videos and information.
Happy Trading!
The Printing Company- how it works :
- Imagine you can create apples, and that you are the only one in the world able to do that.
- So if you create 100 apples, you will make them more rare and unique, so maybe you can sell them for 10$ each one.
- So now imagine you create 10,000,000,000 apples, you will have more apples than peoples need to eat, so you will have to sell your apples 0.0001$
- Anyway you don't really care about your apples price goes down because, you can create how many apples as you want, and the world population is growing.
- This is exactly the same for the US Dollar :
-- Less they print paper, less life is expensive, because we get some kind of USD rarefaction.
-- More they print papers more the dollars flood the world, it makes it weak, then you need more papers to buy your home, a new car or food.
-- Flooding the world with USD make everyone dependent on USD.
- So in graph you can see how many dollars they created post crises 2007 and for Pandemic Covid in 2020.
- So what is the situation right now :
-- Basically they stopped to print ( that's the main reason DXY Pushed up. "Dollar rarefaction" ) and world economy crashed ( Forex, Stocks , Cryptos ) .
-- In time they will have no choice to print again because their system is based on a greedy model.
- What you see is the just top of the iceberg, the Fed is a mosquito if you compare it to the BIS ( Bank for International Settlements).
- Actually controlling the flux of the creation of the dollar is just controlling the world system, it's a kind of tax form that you don't see, but you pay it much more than you think with inflation.
- USD paper money system will end sooner or later for a new monetary model called CDBC.
- it will be worst than you think as they will control everyone having a phone on their hand.
- The Only way to to counter them is to buy Bitcoin because of his real disinflationary mechanic.
- There's no other way to counter the system right now.
Happy Tr4Ding !
USDCNY Channel Up extending its rise.The USDCNY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 24 Low. Being supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) during the past 3 months (since March 14), the price recently formed a 1D Golden Cross.
As a result, we expect a continuation of this textbook uptrend, aiming at a standard +0.70% rise (similar to all previous Bullish Legs of the pattern). Our Target is 7.2875, marginally below Resistance 1.
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The yen continues to weaken as BoJ keeps rates unchangedThe BoJ came out this morning saying they will keep the rates unchanged. The market took that as a negative and we are seeing weakness in the yen across the board against all its major counterparts. Also, the weakness of the Japanese currency might continue, as long as indices are rising.
#usdjpy EASYMARKETS:USDJPY
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XAUUSDHi guys,
In this chart i Found a Demand Zone in XAUUSD CHART for Positional entry,
Observed these Levels based on price action and Demand & Supply.
*Don't Take any trades based on this Picture.
... because this chart is for educational purpose only not for Buy or Sell Recommendation..
Thank you
USDCAD MOVED AS PREDICTEDOn Monday, I was confident that USDCAD was set for a bullish move. All indicators pointed towards an upcoming surge in momentum. I just needed to wait for another bullish flag to form, which it began to do. But then the CPI report came out, disrupting everything and wrecking the market structure. As usual, after such news, the price tried to revert to its original direction. Eventually, I spotted a double bottom—a perfect signal to execute the trade.
$DXY going higher!I expected TVC:DXY to dive to 97 before this because I didn't think the BOJ could hold on this long. I guess we need the dollar to go higher to make the BOJ to dump treasuries so the FED can cut rates and metals can hyperinflate.
TVC:DXY is bull-flagging and TTM squeeze is ready on EVERY TM!
That means a huge slam for gold is coming up...
USDINR Bearish unless it breaks that Resistance.The USDINR pair has been trading within a long-term Rising Wedge pattern since the November 11 2022 Low. The 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting all the way and in fact has made contact with the price and held on 3 occasions, with the most recent being on June 03.
We are currently bearish as the price remains within the Rising Wedge, targeting its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) at 83.2150. If however the pair manages to close a 1D candle above Resistance 1 (83.7000), we will take the small loss and open a buy, targeting the Higher Highs at 84.000.
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XAUUSD - Gold 4hrSimple trading - Trend breakout
BULLS:
No more bearish liquidity on the intraday timeframes. With new higher highs, Gold may have enough momentum to head towards 2330 and remain above the 2340 price. CPI Report came back negative which may allow gold to maintain above the previous support 2310-15.
BEARS:
Gold has NOT completely rejected the 4-hour HEADS and SHOULDER. This is because gold has broken above the neckline, Yes. But technically this could be the retest we have been waiting for. If the price falls below 2310 and fails to hold above the downtrend bottom channel, expect gold to freefall to the next support area.
*These are just my thoughts, not financial advice.
Sell USDCAD Breakout PatternThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3750, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3708
2nd Support – 1.3670
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3800. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.