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DJ FXCM Index

Sell XAUUSD Bearish ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2343, positioned close to the Top of Channel level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2320 2nd Support – 2311 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2354. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
USD still slight bias to the downside...Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. USD seems like going side ways for the past 2 weeks.. i am still on the slight bias for the downside on USD..guess need a decisive breakout from here on... Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
TVC:DXYShort
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Sell EURUSD H4 Channel Breakout & Order BlockThe EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0820, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0620 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0900. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Opportunity Breakdown : 1. Bullish Channel Breakout & Retest 2. Price Reversal @ Fibo - 0.786 Market Factors: Dovish ECB vs Hawkish Fed: The European Central Bank (ECB) is generally expected to maintain a dovish stance on interest rates, while the Federal Reserve might continue raising rates to combat inflation. This interest rate differential could weaken the EUR relative to the USD. Weak Eurozone Data: Recent economic data releases from the Eurozone might have painted a weaker picture of the region's economic health, potentially undermining confidence in the Euro. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
Sell EURUSD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0850, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0819 2nd Support – 1.0805 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0885 This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
19
USDJPY Short time bearishFor years now Yen has been weak and USDJPY Rose 11% in the last 5 months meaning the trend is bullish . FX:USDJPY Peaked at 160 area last month then we saw some selling pressure which drove the rate to 152 zone {Last year high} Price rejection since this month open from 158 means we have some selling pressure, Today after US GDP QoQ2 release USDJPY Dropped 900 points too. I would wait to get a favorable long entry points. Areas of focus 155, 152, lowest 150. Below that the bias turns bearish mid term.
by alonso780
USDCHF: Your Trading Plan Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇭 USDCHF is currently testing a key daily horizontal support. To buy this structure with a confirmation, pay attention to an expanding wedge pattern on a 4H time frame. Your confirmation to buy the pair will be a bullish breakout of the resistance line of the wedge. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 0.9155 then. If the price drops below the underlined green area, the setup will become invalid. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Money supply increased for the first time, Gold price will decreGold prices dropped slightly to hover around $2,360 per ounce on Wednesday. This decline was attributed to investors scaling back their expectations for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year. The market is also eagerly awaiting the release of the key PCE inflation report. GOLD is following the previous wave E assessment, completing wave 4 and continuing wave 5. Gold price resumed its uptrend on Thursday and climbed more than 1% as US Treasury yields dropped, undermining the Greenback's appetite. 🔴SELL GOLD: 2364 - 2366 , SL: 2370 (scalping) 🟢BUY GOLD: 2317 - 2315, SL: 2311 (scalping) GOOD LUCK EVERYONE👍
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Scalper_Ananda
Is Bitcoin a leading indicator of inflation?INDEX:BTCUSD Bitcoin is regarded (in some circles) as both a store of value and an inflation hedge. But what if Bitcoin is a leading indicator of inflation? In the chart shown, we can see the various Bitcoin peaks over the years preceding local peaks in US CPI (orange). The US interest rate is in blue. The last 4 peaks in US CPI YoY have occurred between 6.4 and 8.5 months after a peak in Bitcoin's price. Specifically: June 2016 high - 37 weeks (8.5 months) later at 2.7% December 2017 high - 28 weeks (6.4 months) later at 2.9% June 2019 high - 31 weeks (7.1 months later) at 2.5% November 2021 high - 33 weeks later (7.6 months later) at 9.1% It's also worth noting that the sequence of highs is the same; both BTC and CPI have a lower high, a higher high, lower high, then higher high. The peaks in 2011 and 2013 coincided with CPI highs 15 and 26 weeks later, but 2016/2017 was the time when crypto first entered the public's awareness. So why does this happen? Do Bitcoin whales buying lambos stimulate inflation? I'm joking, but I genuinely don't know, and I hope someone can explain lol. I've wondered if it's a case of correlation in that rising inflation is usually a sign of easy financial conditions—the ideal conditions for a risk asset like BTC to pump—with Bitcoin being the first to benefit as the ultimate risk asset (at least in the world of mainstream finance). I'm not sure though. The most concerning thing is the implication. We recently just made another all-time high in Bitcoin, but CPI sits at 3.4% at the time of writing, having moved sideways for almost a year now. As for whether this is a crazy coincidence, or me reaching to an astronomical degree, I don't know. The average period of time over these last 4 periods is 32 weeks, or around October/November time. The only catalysts I see are the US government spending money like it's going out of fashion and rising commodity prices. I'll also note that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with lows in inflation. Personal opinion on inflation: US inflation is stalling, rising, and falling across different measures. Producer prices, services inflation, annual PCE, and some core measures are tilting up. The only real decline recently has been core CPI. It's also interesting to note that 1 and 5-year Michigan inflation expectations are 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Multiple Fed officials have been hawkish lately: Fed's Barr: Q1 inflation was disappointing, it did not provide the confidence needed to ease monetary policy. Fed's Mester: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Fed's Bostic: It would not surprise me if it took longer to get to 2% inflation in the US than elsewhere. Given that we've reached a peak in interest rates (for the time being) but inflation has been moving sideways for around a year now, something has to change. It could be argued that monetary policy still needs time to work, but that doesn't really mesh with measures of inflation stalling or rising over the past year. Wouldn't the lag effect continue working to drive inflation lower? Likewise, why would the US economy be growing as fast as it is? One or more of three things will need to change: inflation, unemployment, or interest rates. Unemployment is at 3.9%, low by historical standards but rising since early 2022. Inflation, especially with what we've seen here, may also be on the rise soon. If the main lever the Fed has is monetary policy, it faces a dilemma. The data doesn't support a rate cut right now, while unemployment is rising slowly. If inflation begins to rise again, it may need to hike interest rates—not ideal when Joe desperately needs one for the upcoming election. This scenario of high inflation and high unemployment—stagflation—is what JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has been warning of : 'It’s a warning Dimon has issued before, previously saying he fears America is headed for a repeat of the 1970s when everything “felt great” and then quickly about-turned to a period of high unemployment and inflation paired with low demand, also known as “stagflation.” Appearing at AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference on Wednesday, Dimon said he simply can’t see how the past five years of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus could result in anything other than this scenario. As it stands, the US dollar looks ready to surge higher and clear 2023 highs: While SPY and BTC, adjusted for inflation (CPI figure taken from first day of trading), sit below their 2021 highs: I am aware that the human tendency to look for patterns and confirmation bias may be clouding my judgement. However, in my view, the market is severely underestimating the risk of higher inflation and a potential interest rate hike, which I believe will drive the dollar higher throughout the rest of 2024. According to the Bitcoin chart, another wave of inflation could be back above 7%+. I personally find that hard to imagine, but second round effects in the 1970s saw inflation shoot past its previous peak. Deutsche Bank has drawn parallels with the 1970s . Long-term views: Long USD, Oil Short risk assets (equities, crypto) Unsure on gold and silver but skewed lower For these views to be truly validated, I would like to see: TVC:DXY above 105.75 NYMEX:CL1! above 84 AMEX:SPY below 494 NASDAQ:QQQ below 414 INDEX:BTCUSD below 56,500 This is not financial advice, nor a recommendation. I wrote this to bring attention to something strange I'd found, and strongly encourage you to do your own research. Thank you for reading.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by pasojov
23
USD/CNH: BofA’s Caution, JPM’s WarningsUSD/CNH: BofA’s Caution, JPM’s Warnings Bank of America (BofA) has expressed caution about betting against the US dollar in the face of recent improvements in sentiment towards China's economic policy stimulus. Recent policy actions by China have sparked optimism, leading to a weakening of the USD. However, BofA advises against making hasty financial moves based on these developments alone. BofA believes that the effectiveness of Chinese Economic policies in stimulating significant new economic activity remains uncertain. Investors are encouraged to wait for more definitive signs of a sustained recovery in China's credit and property sectors before making significant currency moves. Just last month, BofA expressed a bearish outlook on several Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Thai baht, and Vietnamese dong. BofA anticipated sustained depreciation pressures on the yuan into the second half of the year due to several factors particularly due to the delayed easing by the Federal Reserve. On the other side, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has been continuing his warnings at the JPMorgan Global China Summit in Shanghai. Dimon suggested that the chance of stagflation in the US—a period of stagnant economic growth combined with high inflation—is higher than most people think. Last week, he did not rule out the possibility of a hard landing for the US economy.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCHF: Borderline but still bullish on 1D.USDCHF is borderline bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.216, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 24.748) but still inside the 2024 Channel Up. As long as the 1D MA50 supports, we will stay bullish along with the trend, especially since the 1D MACD formed another Bullish Cross. Despite the presence of the R1 level, the bullish waves of the Channel Up have been clear and dominant. The current one targets the R2 level but we pursue a more modest target (TP = 0.9300). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
USDCAD Bearish trend intact. Not too late to sell.The USDCAD pair gave us a wonderful sell trade on our last analysis (April 17, see chart below) as we caught the exact moment of the rejection and reversal of the 4-month bullish trend: The price has now broken below not just the (dotted) Channel Up but closed below the 1D MA50 too, confirming the trend shift to bearish. As you can see on this 1W chart, the pair always declined more following a break below the 1D MA50 and the minimum drop it has has been -3.23%. As a result, our 1.34500 Target remains intact. A Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame may confirm an even deeper drop. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
BTCUSD UPDATE! Important!!Simple trading - Bearish Pattern 1: Slanted Head and shoulders Bullish Pattern 2: Ascending Triangle Always a risk when taking trades and this is one of the biggest. Will BTC continue its rapid uptrend or will it make another major pullback to the downside? Bears: H&S pattern is not completely invalid yet. If BTC continues to create a higher high or move sideways, we can invalidate this pattern. As of now, BTC has made a perfect break and retest for more bearish movement. Perfect entry spot! Bulls: BTC has not failed yet! with high lowers and rejection from 70k, a new triangle pattern has formed. BTC could easily be creating new support and rise to a new ATH. Personally, I am currently BEARISH on BTC, with a wacky Weekly structure, BTC looks to be forming the biggest Cup and Handle pattern in history:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by nikdobii
EURUSD: Today's result is critical for maintaing the Channel DowEURUSD has turned bullish short-term on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.604, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 30.311) as it rebounded before the 1D MA50/200 test. This is making a LH, same way it did on March 21st, again after holding the 1D MA50/200. Similarly, the 1D RSI us on the MA period. A rejection today validates the fractal bias of happening again. In that case, we are still on course to forming the new bearish wave of the five month Channel Down. We are still aiming for the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.05550). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1
GBPUSDT → USD BECOME WEAK?hello guys... do you think usd dollar will become weak? I think the price is on QML now and it will do some corrections! however, it is not a strong Quasimodo pattern due to the head location! so the price will start an upward movement until the MPL level! MPL level will make the price some (just a little) correction and then the price will go to 1.27$ level that is mentioned! ___________________________ ✓✓✓ always do your research. ❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. ❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Long
by melikatrader94
3
Dollar Loses Shine as US Economy Shows Signs of CoolingThe tide may be turning for the US dollar. After a period of strength, investors are growing less optimistic about the greenback as recent economic data suggests a slowdown in the US economy. This shift in sentiment is reflected in positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which shows a net short position on the dollar for the first time in six weeks. Signs of a Cooling US Economy Several factors are contributing to the cooling sentiment on the dollar. Recent economic reports have indicated a potential slowdown in the US. Growth may be decelerating after a strong 2023, with factors like inflation and rising interest rates potentially impacting consumer spending and business investment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has embarked on a series of interest rate hikes to combat inflation. While these hikes are intended to curb inflation, they can also have a dampening effect on economic activity. Businesses may be hesitant to borrow and invest, and consumers may tighten their belts as borrowing costs rise. CFTC Data Reveals Shift in Investor Positioning The CFTC data provides valuable insights into investor sentiment on the foreign exchange market. The data tracks the net long or short positions held by leveraged funds, which include hedge funds and other large speculators, and asset managers. According to the latest CFTC data, leveraged funds still held some net long positions on the dollar last week. However, this bullishness was outweighed by a significant increase in net short positions held by asset managers. This shift in positioning resulted in a combined net short position of $5.36 billion as of May 21st, compared to a net long position of $2.02 billion just a week earlier. Market Implications of the Dollar's Decline A weaker dollar can have several implications for the global economy. It can make US exports more competitive, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers. Conversely, imports into the US become more expensive. This can potentially lead to higher inflation in the US as the cost of imported goods increases. A weaker dollar can also impact other currencies. If investors lose confidence in the US economy, they may seek refuge in other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc. This could lead to a strengthening of these currencies relative to the dollar. The Road Ahead: Volatility and Data Dependence Analysts expect currency positioning to remain volatile in the near term. The direction of the dollar will likely hinge on incoming US economic data. Strong economic data could reignite bullish sentiment on the dollar, while further signs of a slowdown could exacerbate the recent decline. The FOMC's monetary policy decisions will also be closely watched. If the Fed signals a more aggressive pace of rate hikes to combat inflation, the dollar could find support. However, if the Fed slows down the pace of hikes or even starts cutting rates in the future, as some analysts predict, the dollar could weaken further. Conclusion The recent decline in bullish sentiment on the dollar reflects growing concerns about the health of the US economy. The CFTC data highlights a shift in investor positioning, with a net short position emerging for the first time in six weeks. The future direction of the dollar remains uncertain and will depend on the trajectory of the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln