DJ FXCM Index
XAUUSD - 1H Continuation of FallStops and liquidity have been hunted above the resistance zone, suggesting that gold (XAUUSD) can continue its downward trajectory towards the $2315 level.
The chart shows a bullish trendline, and a break below this trendline will serve as a confirmation for initiating sell positions. This break would indicate a shift in market sentiment, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Traders should watch for this trendline crossing as a key signal for entering short trades, targeting the identified support level at $2315.
Additionally, the previous three bullish legs used the $2310 zone as the base, adding further significance to this support area.
AUD/USD Pathway Analysis - UPSIDE BIASThe Strong Rejection of the Downside below 0.6400 has been tempered by the FOMC minutes and stronger US Confidence data and the AUD/USD has pulled back from 0.6700. Support has been found at 0.6590 and we are currently on Front Foot into 0.6630.
Aussie has a couple of risk events with Aussie Retail Sales Tuesday which were weak last month and then the Monthly CPI Figures Wednesday forecast at 3.4% vs. 3.5% previously.
The other side of the equation USD is struggling to make further gains with US 2 year interest rates hitting super strong resistance at 5.0% and unless we can somehow break above we are going to see range trading to USD weakness in coming sessions.
US Data is light but Core PCE a FED favoured measure is out on Friday and another key potential market mover. A weaker data point forecast at 0.2% vs 0.3% and Personal Income forecast at 0.3.% vs. 0.5%.
Looking for AUD/USD dips to be bought at 0.6600 for eventual retest of 0.6700. Sideways trading very likely though so taking profits 0.6640-50 likely a few times till later in Week.
USDCAD Strong sell following today's rejection.USDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.081, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 32.778) as it formed a Lower High yesterday and today got sold aggressively. This is a Channel Down since the April 16th High, which having broken under the 1D MA50, has confirmed the continuation of the bearish price action. We expect the 1D RSI to at least hit the 30.000 level, as every rejection on the R1 Zone, saw the pair reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. We are bearish, aiming at that level (TP = 1.34350).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURUSD Channel Down looking for a Lower Low.The EURUSD pair gave us last week (May 17, see chart below), the ideal Lower High sell entry, as the price got rejected exactly where we wanted it to at the top of the 5-month Channel Down:
We now view this price action from the 1D time-frame where the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross. Every time in the past 6 months this was formed above the 0.00 level, it was a confirmation that the pair would go after at least a -2.35% decline.
This is perfectly aligned with Target 2 (1.06550) on Support 2. Target 1 (1.07300) is just above Support 1, both of which are estimated in accordance to the March Bearish Leg, which also hit its Support 1 and 2 before a rebound.
It has to be noted also that while Target 2 represents a -2.35% decline, it would also make contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is practically our long-term Support, having held and caused rebounds both on the April 16 2024 Low and before that on the November 10 2023 Low.
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Buy USDCHF Triangle BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.9150
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.9178
2nd Resistance – 0.9191
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 0.9125. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Opportunity Breakdown:
Triangle Breakout: Price action recently broke above a bullish triangle, a continuation pattern suggesting further upside potential.
Retest Confirmation: The price has retested the broken resistance line of the triangle and held, indicating strong buying pressure. This retest adds confidence to the breakout.
Ichimoku Cloud Support: The current price sits comfortably above the Ichimoku cloud, a technical indicator that often signals bullish momentum when the price is above the cloud.
Thank you.
USD INDEX (DXY)... Bias is BEARISH!Bias is Bearish.
Price is still in a -FVG, though
it has almost filled it. But
until there is a candle close
on a daily basis, my bias will
remain bearish.
My view is the 5 days of
bullish PA is simply just
a retracement... an internal
move after a BOS.
The low resistance liquidity
run below the previous lows
can potentially draw price
lower.
There is a fair chance that
today's high will be swept
before it turns around.
GBPUSD Strong sell approaching but know when to take it.The GBPUSD pair is approaching the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Triangle pattern, having also broken at the same time above the 0.618 Fibonacci. This is around the levels the pair started its previous topping process that led to the eventually Lower High of March 08 2024.
We will take the sell when the 1D MACD forms a Bearish Cross and we will target the Triangle's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) at 1.2400.
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USD INDEX.... BEARISH BIAS.Bias is Bearish.
After breaking the low, price pulled
back to internal LQ at the -FVG.
Reaching the CE, price was rejected
and closed Fri within the range of the
previous candle.
The expectation is for price to continue
lower, seeking external LQ at the Thurs
low and potentially the swing low.
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USDCHF: Important Breakout 🇺🇸🇨🇭
Today's FOMC is clearly bullish for USDCHF.
The price broke and closed above a resistance line
of a wide accumulation range on a daily time frame.
It opens a potential for a further bullish continuation now.
Next resistance - 0.919
I suggest waiting for a pullback before you buy.
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USDJPY Channel Up aiming higher.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the December 28 2023 market bottom and has started the new Bullish Leg on the May 03 2023 bounce (Higher Low) on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The previous two Bullish Legs rose on average by +8.00%, so we expect a similar development. As a result we are bullish, targeting 163.000.
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Sell GBPUSD CPI DataThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent breakout from a wedge pattern.
Possible Short Trade :
Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling GBP/USD) below the broken support trendline of the wedge after confirmation. Ideally, this would be around 1.2720 or lower if the price continues to decline.
Target Levels:
1.2678: This target is achieved by measuring the height of the wedge (from its apex to the breakout point) and projecting it downwards from the breakout point.
1.2650: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: Once the entry point is confirmed, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the wedge, ideally with some buffer around 1.2730. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
EURUSD: The time to sell is now.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.508, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 33.468) but is on the 4th day of descend, which is a natural reaction as it almost hit the top of the 5-month Channel Down. In the meantime the 1D RSI almost hit the top of its own 5-month Rectangle. We are still on the ideal level to short. Our Target is intact just over the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.05550).
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The USD/JPY pair shows short-term bullish potential The USD/JPY currency pair is exhibiting short-term bullish potential, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events.
Fundamental Analysis:
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate levels for the foreseeable future, delaying any potential rate cuts. This stance supports the US dollar, as higher interest rates relative to other major currencies attract investors seeking better returns.
Geopolitical Tensions:
The escalating tensions in the Middle East have increased the demand for safe-haven assets. Historically, the US dollar benefits from such geopolitical uncertainties as investors flock to it for safety, further bolstering its strength against other currencies, including the Japanese yen.
Technical Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair has recently tested and respected a key support level, indicating strong buying interest around this price point. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are showing bullish signals, suggesting that the pair is poised for an upward movement in the short term.
Conclusion:
Given the Fed's current stance on interest rates and the rising geopolitical risks, the USD/JPY pair is positioned for a bullish trend in the near term. Traders should consider this scenario and evaluate potential long positions to capitalize on the expected appreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.