Overall Sentiment for US Economy from January to May 2024The period from January to May 2024 has been marked by significant bearish sentiment due to multiple geopolitical events. The escalation of conflicts in Ukraine, increased US-China trade tensions, disruptions in the Red Sea, and heightened hostilities in the Middle East have collectively contributed to market instability. These events led to increased energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and heightened global volatility, which pressured the US Dollar Index.
The overall bearish impact on the dollar was driven primarily by inflationary pressures from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical risks, reducing demand for the dollar as a safe haven. Large institutions had to adjust their portfolios and manage risks strategically to navigate the volatile environment.
DJ FXCM Index
USD approaching a key level + trendlineHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Could see some retracement upwards, though generally i am still bias on the downside for USD.
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DXY Channel Up bottom. Strong buy opportunity.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit both Targets that we set on our January 24 analysis (see chart below):
Yet again, a new buy opportunity is emerging as the price not only hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Zone but also the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up, which is essentially the Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up.
With the 1D MACD about to form a Bullish Cross, that will be the bullish confirmation we need to buy and target 108.000 (near the top of the dotted Channel Up and almost +4% from yesterday's Low, which is a standard rise % within the pattern).
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EURUSD Perfect level to sell on the Lower HighThe EURUSD pair hit the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down and got immediately rejected. This pull-back is most likely the start of the new Bearish Leg on its way for a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern.
Technically, we are on almost perfect symmetry with the previous Leg, which formed a Lower High after a 4H Golden Cross. When the 4H MACD completed a Bearish Cross on the 0.00240 level (which is where we are now), the sell signal was confirmed.
As a result, we most likely have the most optimal sell confirmation right now. Target 1 is just above Support 1 at 1.07300 and Target 2 just above Support 2 at 1.06550.
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NZDUSD Still bullish but be aware of the sell opportunity above.The rebound we expected on NZDUSD came a little later than we expected two months ago (March 22, see chart below) but nonetheless it is being delivered now and the price is now very close to our medium-term target:
Since we observe though a shift on the Lower Highs trend-line of the long-term Channel Down, we decide to push the Target higher to 0.62600, which now represents the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and would be almost a +7.14% rise, similar to the July 14 2023 (Lower) High.
A 1D RSI Double Top would be a perfect sell entry signal like December 27 2023.
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SPY May Rally Above $540 Before You Know It...My research continues to support more Bullish trending for the SPY and other US major indexes.
I keep seeing others propose a market crash scenario - week after week... after week.
I certainly hope you were not following their suggestions too closely - because the SPY has rallied more than 7% from the recent lows. That's a lot of losses piling up for anyone caught on the short side of the markets right now.
Watch my video. Learn how I read the markets in a different format. And learn how to use my research to help you become a better trader.
I've posted many training videos on TradingView - please spend some time checking them out.
Get ready for a potentially explosive move in the SPY - targeting $545+... possibly rallying above $560 before the end of June 2024.
USDJPY: Bullish short term. Attention at the top of the Channel.USDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.858, MACD = 0.730, ADX = 52.633) and is rebounding after almost the second 1D MA50 test in 2 weeks. The pair is capitalizing on the bullish momentum of the 1 year Channel Up but this rebound could be the last before a correction, as the price is very close to the HH top trendline. Our goal is still that top (TP = 160.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURUSD: Overbought on 1D presenting a sell opportunity.EURUSD is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.115, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 33.336) with the price approaching the top/ LH trendline of the long term Channel Down. It is already past the 0.618 Fibonacci level, where the last LH got rejected but the 1D RSI is right where the tops of December 27th 2023 and March 7th 2024 where formed. This is a solid low risk sell opportunity, aiming for the next LL on a 1.236 Fib extension (TP = 1.05550).
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USD/CADHello again!
As you liked the previous analysis and signal, here comes the second one. Please try to be patient and wait for confirmation before entering at the right place. This way, you won't have to place your stop loss far away from the entry point.
The most important thing in trading is having a plan and always aiming for the win. However, you should never underestimate the market, as it can go in any direction possible. There are no "have to" or "had to" in the market.
Thank me later!
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom.
I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.
XAUUSD Demand and Supply Zone | 4H TimeframeXAUUSD Demand and Supply Zone | 4H Timeframe
HEY Traders ! hope you are doing well
- This prediction is based on Technical Analysis
- Supply and Demand Zone path elaborated
- Gold touched the supply zone and clearly rejected to now in a bearish circle
- Usd High Impact news are Waiting to moving gold volatile
- Our Target and Our Trend as Shown in our Analysis
- We decided to stick with our idea until gold touched the points 2350-2345-2340.00
- Stick with Trend
- Don't be opposite from Trend
GBPUSD: Sell this 2nd 1D MA50 test.GBPUSD is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.00, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 28.566) and testing the 1D MA50 for the 2nd time since May 3rd. Last time it got rejected emphatically and being exactly on the LH trendline, there is very low risk in selling on the current market price. The target is a little over the S2 level (TP = 1.2220).
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USDHUF Sell when the 1D MA200 breaks.The USDHUF pair had a bearish break-out on our last analysis (October 13 2023, see chart below) and after hitting our 345.700 Sell Target, it rebounded:
The rebound formed a Channel Up, which again failed and a new downtrend has been confirmed after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue turned-line) again. Once the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks as well, we will have a bearish break-out confirmation, similar to October - November 2023.
Our Target is Support 2 at 342.1565.
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💡USDJPY: Analysis May 14USDJPY increased yesterday, and bar D1 yesterday closed beyond the previous Inside bar pattern, creating a breakout to establish a new high, continuing the push to the bottom. This breakout could add further upside momentum to USDJPY D1. Structurally, USDJPY D1 is still moving sideways in the main price increase in D1.
USDJPY H1 broke out of the accumulation price range to set a new high price peak, returning to the short-term upward price trend. However, right now USDJPY H1 is starting to be overbought - overbought - because the price has exceeded the upper boundary. At this time, you should not buy to chase, but should wait for the recovery period to decline before buying USDJPY H1. The buy zone for the day is the round number 156.00 + the upward sloping trend line at the bottom. If this zone is broken down, USDJPY H1 will weaken and serve as a basis for the idea of waiting to sell later.
H1 trend: USDJPY increases.
Today's trading idea: Buy USDJPY.
HG Futures, Copper's Potential Rise: Monthly, Weekly, Daily.Monthly is winding up for a big drop or huge jump.
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily shows price winding up potentially the rest of the year. So I will look towards year end for the fireworks, that will decide if our pent up momentum will release upwards or downwards.
My gut says inflation will send it upward in the near future.