Short on EUR/USD – 30-Minute Timeframe We’re taking a short position on EUR/USD on the 30-minute timeframe, driven by the strength of the U.S. dollar. The recent price action indicates a continuation of the downtrend, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the bearish momentum.
Key Levels:
• Entry: Initiated after confirming the strong dollar trend and the break of key support levels on the chart.
• Target: Aiming for lower support zones as indicated on the chart, where price may find temporary relief or consolidation.
• Stop-Loss: Placed above the recent high to manage risk and protect against a potential reversal.
Rationale:
The U.S. dollar continues to show strength, applying pressure on the euro. This trade is aligned with the broader market trend, which favors further downside for the EUR/USD pair. The technical setup, supported by the prevailing macroeconomic factors, suggests that the downtrend is likely to persist in the near term.
Risk Management:
To manage risk effectively, the stop-loss is set above the recent high, ensuring that potential losses are limited while allowing for the possibility of continued downward movement. Monitor the trade closely and adjust as needed based on market developments.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
DJ FXCM Index
Awaited Dollar Rebound, Too Expensive FrancCHF
- Market Internals
- SNB doesn't like it high
USD
- Strong GDP data. Claims were released slightly below the cons.; ISM PMI positive expectations
- Oversold dollar due to exaggerated cut expectations
- Bullish CFTC
Technical & Other
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Down
Long-term: Down
Min target: Local mirror level, 3R
Risk: 0.22%; 1R
* 1st entry 0.5R near the down band of the local range (buy limit); 2nd 0.5R when 1h closed above DMA(10)
US indeces pre market TuesdayHere's a breakdown of why the S&P 500 might drop to the next green zone based on the technical analysis depicted in the chart:
1. Resistance Zone (Upper Red Box)
The chart highlights a resistance zone near the top, marked by a red box. This zone represents a price level where the S&P 500 has struggled to move higher and has reversed several times in the past.
The price has recently touched this resistance zone and failed to break through it, indicating that selling pressure is stronger at this level.
2. Support Zone (Lower Green Box)
The green box at the bottom represents a support zone, which is a price level where the index has previously found buying interest and reversed upward.
The chart suggests that the price could potentially drop back to this support zone if the current downtrend continues.
3. Recent Price Action
The price action within the last few candlesticks shows a downward movement after touching the resistance zone, which is depicted by the downward arrow.
This suggests that sellers have taken control, and the price is likely to continue moving lower.
4. Breakdown of Support Levels
The price appears to be breaking down through minor support levels (smaller green zones within the red box), which could indicate that the market is losing bullish momentum and could head towards the lower support zone.
5. Trading Setup
The chart suggests a short (sell) trade setup, where the expected movement is for the price to drop towards the lower green zone.
The green arrow indicates the anticipated direction of the price movement, while the red and green shaded areas likely represent the stop-loss and take-profit levels, respectively.
Conclusion
Based on the chart's technical analysis, the S&P 500 is expected to decline to the next green support zone due to the strong resistance at the current level, recent bearish price action, and the potential breakdown of intermediate support levels. If the price reaches the lower green zone, it might find support and possibly reverse, but until then, the outlook is bearish.
DXY - US Dollar Strengthens Above 101.70 Market AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing renewed strength, climbing above the 101.70 mark after a relatively flat Monday. This move extends the momentum from last week, where the DXY gained over 1%. As the market braces for key labor data later this week, all eyes are on the August jobs report, set to be released on Friday. This report is expected to reveal a solid increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could provide further support to the US Dollar.
Technical Analysis: Reversal from Key Demand Area
From a technical standpoint, the DXY has already exhibited a significant reversal from a key Demand area around 100.535. As forecasted, the price rebounded from the 100.515 level, confirming the strength of this support zone. This reversal was anticipated based on previous analysis, and it has played out as expected, setting the stage for the current bullish momentum.
Sentiment and Seasonal Trends Support a Bullish Outlook
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report adds an interesting layer to the analysis, showing that retail traders are aggressively short on the US Dollar. This aggressive short positioning often acts as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that there might be further upside potential for the DXY.
Additionally, seasonal trends are aligning with a possible bullish rally in the US Dollar. Historically, this period has seen increased demand for the USD, and the current setup appears to be following that pattern. When combining the COT data with the technical bounce from the Demand area, the outlook for the US Dollar remains positive.
Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting USD Strength
The DXY's move above 101.70 is supported by a confluence of technical and sentiment factors. The reversal from the Demand area, coupled with the contrarian signal from the COT report and favorable seasonality, all point towards a continued increase in the value of the US Dollar. As the market awaits the crucial NFP report on Friday, the stage is set for potential further gains in the DXY, reinforcing our bullish outlook for the US Dollar.
Previous Forecast
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CRB Index: Impact on Commodities, Inflation, and the DollarIt’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory.
When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced.
Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2497, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2522
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2489. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Sell EURUSD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1060, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1015
2nd Support – 1.0988
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1100 This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Will the dollar bounce back from its current decline?
The US July PCE was in line with market consensus. Headline PCE prices rose 0.2% from a month ago and 2.5% from a year ago, which aligns with market expectations. Core PCE, the Fed's price benchmark, rose only 0.16%, slower than the previous month's 0.18%. This is the lowest level this year and has catalyzed the market sentiment of the Fed’s rate cut.
It is worth noting that despite a 0.3% increase in personal income, surpassing the previous month's 0.2%, the savings rate remains alarmingly low. This is because personal consumption expenditures are growing at a faster rate than personal income.
The current savings rate has dropped to 2.9%, marking only the second instance in the past 16 years, since the global financial crisis, the savings rate has fallen to the 2% range.
This implies that consumption in the United States could decline quickly, serving as a cautionary signal that if employment falters, there may be insufficient buffers to sustain consumption.
DXY sustained its uptrend after breaking out of the descending channel and advanced to 101.60. The price consolidates around the 101.50-101.70 range, waiting for an additional price trigger.
If the price breaches the resistance at 101.80 while holding above the EMA, the price may gain upward momentum toward 102.60. Conversely, if DXY fails to stay above both EMAs and retreats to the support at 100.50, the price could fall further to the 100.00 threshold.
FULL DXY ANALYSISHello my wonderful community !
it’s been a while I posted.
I really appreciate you guys for reviewing my charts
Kindly like and comment on how you feel the market will go , I’m open to learn and communicate with other hardworking traders on here.
The colors for each line/zone
Monthly - Yellow
Weekly - Orange
Daily - Green
4H - Red
1H - Purple
My Monthly chart view:
Ever since 2010, price has been in an uptrend by making higher highs and higher lows.
Price keeps breaking major resistance areas and turning them to dynamic support areas and respects the EMA 50 anytime it makes a correction.
Take note as price is trending upwards and respecting the channel constructed.
My Weekly chart view:
Going into the weekly TimeFrame, it is truly clear that price entered a range from 2017 until 2022 before the bulls came in fully in early 2022 and made an Uptrend and breaking the resistance with bullish candles before exerting a correction and respecting the newly formed support.
My Daily chart view:
I also noticed a range forming due to this same correction between the areas marked in red.
Notice the double top indicating a reversal after the break of the neck line. After the invalidation of the Red daily trend line by the break with bearish engulfing candle, The bears take full control driving the price down to an area of Demand.
Price is in a downtrend as this is due to the correction observed in the bigger timeframe
To play safe i feel i can capture a buy setup after the break and retest of the upper red resistance but that will take forever.
My 4H chart view:
I capitalized on this trade by executing based on my trading strategy with a nice sell setup after the break of the neckline with a risk: reward of 1:2.
So I’ll go further and look for buy Setups as we are in this same 4H time frame
Price currently approached an Area of Demand (this area also serves as a major support zone and has been respected multiple times )and bulls seems to be coming in strong with rising momentum.
My 1H chart view:
Sometimes we just have to go further with the believe that the market will reveal its hand , so I’m patiently waiting for buy setups as price is gaining momentum with the EMA 14 crossing over the EMA 50 and price still respecting the area of Demand and major support zone.
EURUSD Long-term Sell Signal confirmed.The EURUSD pair confirmed with last week's closing the start of a new bearish sequence as it closed the 1W candle in deep red below even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This established not only the previous High as the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 11-month Channel Up but also posted an identical long-term Top sequence as the July 17 2023 weekly candle.
As you can see on both tops a long-term series of red weeks was initiated, both of then stopping on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. As a result, our 1.0900 medium-term bearish Target appears to be a modest one as it is where we anticipate the first wave of buyers (Support) on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) 1W MA100 (green trend-line) cluster. This may provide a bounce similar to February 12 2024.
As a side-note, notice how the 1W RSI posted a similar rejection - reversal top on the 70.00 overbought barrier, same as July 10 2023.
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Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) Ascending Triangle in H1The XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2513.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2485
2nd Support – 2461.50
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2530. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Still Bearish on DXYDXY can see some correction to the upside and reach 102.5 or even climb up to 103.5 before September 18, 2024, which, most probably we'll see the first rate cut after a long time.
So be patient and wait for this week's NFP.
Check out my post on June 11 to see how DXY followed our yellow scenario. 😉
USDCHF outlookI am not trading USDCHF (I only trade GBPUSD), but I made an outlook of what to expect for the coming weeks.
We confirmed a 30m bos which creates buying interest. Previous structure low is taken out so major liquidity is taken while mitigating from a strong demand. A break on the 1H TF would give more confluence although this has not happened yet.
If price fails to break the 1H structure, a buy order can still be placed due to the fact that m30 is broken, with the intention to rise higher.
Keep in mind that price always does whatever it wants, a liquditity run to the downside (before going up) is still possible as HTF is still bearish for me.
Target: T.b.c. as this can be a swing trade
USDCHF - Short Trade IdeaThis a short trade idea I have for the USDCHF.
It is pretty straight-forward. Trade back into a Weekly iFVG and SIBI then move lower from there. First target is the immediate swing low, and the second target is the older low to the left. Entry somewhere in the gap, and stoploss above the high that entered the previous SIBI.
Sometimes I feel as though I should make my analysis more complicated so it can get featured, but truth be told, there is nothing useful about having a complicated analysis. In terms of technical analysis, this is as accurate and simple as it gets. And usually if a trade is wrong, there is unanticipated news or the tides have turned and a trade in the opposite direction is warranted.
- R2F
DXY, what is next bro?DXY analysis 1/09/24💵
Few things about it:
DXY is oversold and it has 4h and daily FVG higher +
It just tested the bottom of the global range (almost 2 years in consolidation), and most likely it will bounce till dFVG,
On 15m and 1h time frame, DXY has an uptrend (MS( ChoCH) and BoS) until the uptrend on 1h is not broken I will not consider reversal on DXY
DXY and EUR always fill their gaps on high time frames, before they move further and the next move on DXY will be final, so most likely it will keep going higher till 0.5 zone ( equilibrium) of this global range ~103.2-103.4 area
Considering all of this I will expect EUR and all pairs that trade against USD will be bearish unless the uptrend on 1h is broken with DOUBLE shifts only then i will consider DXY's reversal
USD Last week,light news, USD bounce during mid of last weekHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
As mentioned last week to be cautious on shorting USD , it came to play during midweek that there was a bounce. Nice.
This week might see continued retracement to $102.25 area and let's see if there's more hint from this coming week's NFP for USD direction. A couple of high impact news for USD this week. Trade with care!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;
I suggest you read it to the end.
This type of chart is used to understand how much Bitcoin has gained or lost in value relative to the Narrow Money Supply in the US.
In the chart, the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is plotted against the US Narrow Money Supply (M1). M1 includes money in circulation (cash) and demand deposits at banks. This type of ratio can help to understand how valuable Bitcoin is in the macroeconomic environment.
In a nutshell;
If the chart is rising : Bitcoin is rising.
If the chart is falling : The US money supply is increasing.
If the US money supply increases and Bitcoin's market capitalization remains the same, then the chart will fall again. It means that Bitcoin is losing value against the US dollar.
In short, we need to look more carefully at what is causing the decline.
When does the US Narrow Money Supply (M1) appreciate?
- Raising interest rates
- Economic empowerment
- Liquidity reduction
The first 2 points above are not hard to guess, but let's elaborate on point 3;
The FED may implement monetary tightening policies to reduce the amount of dollars in the market. In this case, the money supply may contract and the value of the dollar may rise. This is called illiquidity.
To summarize;
An appreciation of the US money supply often puts pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin and can depress their prices.
There are also important historical notes above the chart
The white trend line is important . Because every time it comes here, we see that it experiences strong price movements with important news.
Therefore, it may be necessary to follow the agenda closely when it comes to this trend line again.
Bullish bounce?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 101.02
1st Support: 100.52
1st Resistance: 101.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis.
As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again.
We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel.
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