Could we see the price rise from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is also a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 97.10
1st Support: 96.70
1st Resistance: 97.77
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DJ FXCM Index
A Dollar in Freefall and a Bitcoin on the Brink
In the grand theater of global finance, narratives rarely align with perfect symmetry. The market is a complex ecosystem of competing forces, a cacophony of signals where long-term tectonic shifts can be momentarily drowned out by the piercing alarms of short-term volatility. Today, we stand at the precipice of one of the most profound and fascinating divergences in modern financial history, a story of two assets locked in an inverse dance, each telling a radically different tale about the immediate future.
On one side of this chasm stands the titan of the old world, the U.S. Dollar. The bedrock of global commerce, the world’s undisputed reserve currency for nearly a century, is in a state of unprecedented crisis. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the globally recognized measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, is in freefall. It is suffering its most catastrophic crash since 1991, and by some measures, is enduring its worst year since the historic turmoil of 1973. This is not a minor correction; it is a fundamental challenge to the dollar’s hegemony, a macro-level event driven by seismic shifts in U.S. economic policy, including aggressive trade tariffs and ballooning government deficits. For the world of alternative assets, a collapsing dollar is the loudest possible bullhorn, a clarion call to seek refuge in stores of value that lie beyond the reach of any single government.
On the other side of the chasm is the digital challenger, Bitcoin. Born from the ashes of the 2008 financial crisis as an answer to the very monetary debasement the dollar is now experiencing, Bitcoin should, by all fundamental logic, be soaring. The dollar’s demise is the very thesis upon which Bitcoin’s value proposition is built. And yet, while the long-term case has never looked stronger, the short-term picture is fraught with peril. A close reading of its technical chart reveals a market showing signs of exhaustion. A key momentum indicator, the stochastic oscillator, is flashing a stark warning, suggesting that the digital asset, far from rocketing to new highs, could be on the verge of a significant drop, a painful correction that could pull its price back below the psychological threshold of $100,000.
This is the great divergence. The macro-economic landscape is screaming for a flight to safety into hard assets like Bitcoin, while the micro-level technicals of Bitcoin itself are suggesting an imminent storm. It is a battle between the long-term fundamental signal and the short-term technical noise, a dilemma that forces every market participant to ask themselves a critical question: In a world where the old rules are breaking down, do you trust the map or the compass?
Chapter 1: The Fall of a Titan - Deconstructing the Dollar's Demise
To understand the magnitude of Bitcoin’s long-term promise, one must first dissect the anatomy of the dollar’s current collapse. The U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, is not merely a measure of the dollar against a single currency; it is a weighted average of its value relative to a basket of six major world currencies: the Euro, the Japanese Yen, the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar, the Swedish Krona, and the Swiss Franc. Its movement is a reflection of global confidence in the U.S. economy and its stewardship. For this index to suffer its worst crash since 1991 is a historic event. To be on pace for its worst year since 1973 is a paradigm-shifting crisis.
The year 1973 is not a random benchmark. It was the year the Bretton Woods system, which had pegged global currencies to the U.S. dollar (which was in turn pegged to gold), officially died. Its collapse ushered in the modern era of free-floating fiat currencies. For the dollar’s current performance to be compared to that chaotic, system-altering period is to say that the very foundations of the post-1973 monetary order are being shaken.
The catalysts for this historic weakness are rooted in a dramatic shift in American economic policy, largely attributed to the actions of President Donald Trump’s administration. The two primary drivers are a protectionist trade policy and a fiscal policy of burgeoning deficits.
First, the tariffs. The implementation of broad tariffs on imported goods was intended to protect domestic industries and renegotiate trade relationships. However, such measures are a double-edged sword for a nation's currency. They create friction in the intricate web of global supply chains, increase costs for consumers and businesses, and often invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. This environment of trade conflict creates economic uncertainty, which can deter foreign investment. When international capital becomes wary of deploying in a country, demand for that country’s currency wanes, putting downward pressure on its value.
Second, and perhaps more fundamentally, are the rising deficits. The U.S. government has been running massive budget deficits, spending far more than it collects in revenue. This debt must be financed. When a country runs a large budget deficit alongside a large current account deficit (importing more than it exports), it becomes heavily reliant on foreign capital to purchase its government bonds. If the world’s appetite for that debt falters, or if the sheer volume of new debt issuance becomes too large to absorb, the nation’s central bank may be implicitly forced to monetize the debt—effectively printing new money to buy the bonds. This expansion of the money supply is the classic recipe for currency debasement.
The combination of trade protectionism and fiscal profligacy has created a perfect storm for the dollar. Global investors, looking at the rising deficits and the unpredictable trade environment, are beginning to question the long-term stability of the dollar as a store of value. This erosion of confidence is what is reflected in the DXY’s historic plunge. A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper and imports more expensive, but its most profound effect is on the global investment landscape. It forces a worldwide repricing of assets and sends a tidal wave of capital searching for alternatives that can preserve wealth in an era of fiat decay.
Chapter 2: The Digital Phoenix - Bitcoin's Long-Term Bull Case
In the world of finance, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. As the value of the world's primary reserve asset erodes, the value of its antithesis should, in theory, appreciate. Bitcoin is the dollar’s antithesis. Where the dollar’s supply is infinite and subject to the political whims of policymakers, Bitcoin’s supply is finite, transparent, and governed by immutable code. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. This fundamental, mathematically enforced scarcity is the core of its value proposition.
The inverse correlation between the DXY and Bitcoin is one of the most powerful and intuitive relationships in the digital asset space. When the DXY falls, it signifies that the dollar is losing purchasing power relative to other major currencies. For investors around the globe, this means that holding dollars is a losing proposition. They begin to seek out assets that are not denominated in dollars and cannot be debased by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Bitcoin stands as the prime candidate for this capital flight. It is a non-sovereign, globally accessible, digital store of value that operates outside the traditional financial system. A falling dollar is therefore the strongest possible tailwind for Bitcoin, validating its very reason for existence.
This relationship transcends simple price mechanics; it is a philosophical and macroeconomic hedge. Owning Bitcoin is a bet against the long-term viability of the current debt-based fiat monetary system. The dollar’s crash, driven by deficits and monetary expansion, is not a flaw in the system; it is a feature of it. Bitcoin offers an escape hatch. It is a lifeboat for investors who see the iceberg of sovereign debt on the horizon.
This narrative is what has fueled the wave of institutional adoption that has defined the current market cycle. Sophisticated investors and corporations are not allocating to Bitcoin because they are speculating on short-term price movements. They are buying it as a long-term strategic reserve asset, a hedge against the very macroeconomic turmoil that the dollar’s crash represents. They see a world drowning in debt and a global reserve currency being actively devalued, and they are making a calculated, multi-generational bet on a system of verifiable digital scarcity. From this perspective, the long-term bull case for Bitcoin has never been clearer or more compelling. The dollar’s historic weakness is the ultimate validation of the Bitcoin thesis.
Chapter 3: The Ghost in the Machine - Bitcoin's Short-Term Technical Warning
If the story ended with the macro-economic picture, the path forward would be simple. But markets are not simple. They are a reflection of human psychology, a tapestry of fear and greed woven in real-time. While the fundamental, long-term story points resolutely upward, the short-term evidence, as read through the language of technical analysis, is painting a much darker picture.
Technical analysis operates on the principle that all known information, including the bullish macro fundamentals, is already reflected in an asset's price. It seeks to identify patterns and gauge market momentum to predict future movements. One of the most trusted tools for measuring momentum is the stochastic oscillator. It does not measure price or volume itself, but rather the speed and momentum of price changes. Think of it like a car's tachometer: it tells you not how fast you are going, but how hard the engine is working to maintain that speed.
The stochastic oscillator operates on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading above 80 is considered "overbought," suggesting the asset has moved up too quickly and the rally may be running out of steam. A reading below 20 is considered "oversold," suggesting a decline may be exhausted. The current technical analysis of Bitcoin’s chart reveals a deeply concerning signal from this indicator.
Despite the overwhelmingly bullish news of the dollar’s collapse, Bitcoin’s price momentum is reportedly waning. The stochastic oscillator is likely showing what is known as a "bearish divergence." This occurs when the price of an asset pushes to a new high, but the oscillator fails to do so, creating a lower high. This is a classic warning sign. It’s the market’s equivalent of a car’s engine sputtering and revving less intensely even as the driver pushes the accelerator to the floor. It suggests that the underlying buying pressure is weakening, that the rally is becoming exhausted, and that a reversal or significant correction may be imminent.
The technical forecast of a potential drop below the $100,000 level stems directly from this type of signal. It implies that the recent price strength is not supported by genuine momentum and that the market is vulnerable. Why would this happen when the fundamental news is so positive? There are several possibilities. Short-term traders who bought at lower prices may be taking profits. The market may be flushing out over-leveraged long positions, triggering a cascade of liquidations. Or, it could simply be the natural rhythm of a market. No asset moves up in a straight line. Even the most powerful bull trends require periods of consolidation and correction to shake out weak hands, build a stronger base of support, and gather energy for the next major advance. A pullback to below $100,000, while painful for those who bought at the top, could be a perfectly healthy and necessary event in the context of a much larger, multi-year bull market.
Chapter 4: Reconciling the Irreconcilable - The Investor's Dilemma
This great divergence presents every market participant with a profound dilemma, forcing a clear-eyed assessment of their own investment philosophy and time horizon. The market is speaking in two different languages simultaneously, and the message you hear depends on the language you choose to listen to.
For the long-term investor, the individual or institution with a five, ten, or twenty-year outlook, the story is clear. The historic crash of the U.S. dollar is the signal. It is the fundamental, world-altering event that confirms their thesis. The debasement of the world’s reserve currency is a generational opportunity to allocate capital to a superior, non-sovereign store of value. From this vantage point, the bearish reading on a short-term stochastic oscillator is, at best, irrelevant noise. It is the momentary turbulence felt on a flight destined for a much higher altitude. The strategy for this investor is one of conviction. They may choose to ignore the short-term dip entirely, or more likely, view it as a gift—a final opportunity to accumulate more of a scarce asset at a discount before the full force of the dollar’s crisis is felt in the market. Their actions are guided by the macro map, not the short-term compass.
For the short-term trader, the world looks entirely different. Their time horizon is measured in days, weeks, or months, not years. For them, the bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator is the signal. The macro story of the dollar’s decline is merely the background context. Their primary concern is managing risk and capitalizing on immediate price swings. A warning of a potential drop below $100,000 is an actionable piece of intelligence. It might prompt them to take profits on existing long positions, hedge their portfolio with derivatives, or even initiate a short position to profit from the anticipated decline. Their survival depends on their ability to react to the compass of market momentum, regardless of the map’s ultimate destination.
The most sophisticated market participants, however, attempt to synthesize these two perspectives. They recognize that the long-term macro trend provides the overarching directional bias, while the short-term technicals provide the tactical roadmap for navigating that trend. Such an investor would maintain a core long position in Bitcoin, acknowledging the powerful tailwind of the dollar’s collapse. However, they would use the technical signals to actively manage their position and optimize their entries and exits. They might trim their position when the stochastic indicator signals overbought conditions, taking some profit off the table to reduce risk. They would then stand ready to redeploy that capital and add to their core holding when the technicals signal oversold conditions after the very correction they anticipated. This approach allows them to maintain their long-term conviction while respecting the short-term risks, blending the art of the trader with the discipline of the investor.
Conclusion: The Signal and the Noise
The financial markets are standing at a historic crossroads. The U.S. dollar, the sun around which the global monetary system has orbited for generations, is dimming. Its historic crash is a signal of the highest order, a fundamental warning that the era of unchallenged fiat dominance is facing its most serious test. This decay is creating a powerful gravitational pull toward assets defined by scarcity and sovereignty, with Bitcoin as the undisputed digital leader. This is the signal.
Simultaneously, the internal mechanics of the Bitcoin market are showing signs of short-term fatigue. The warnings from technical indicators like the stochastic oscillator are a reminder that no market is immune to the laws of gravity, that periods of profit-taking and consolidation are a natural and healthy part of any long-term advance. This is the noise.
The great challenge, and the great opportunity, for every investor today is to learn to distinguish between the two. The collapse of the dollar is a paradigm shift, while the potential drop in Bitcoin’s price is a cyclical correction. The former defines the destination; the latter describes the terrain along the way. The current divergence is a test of thesis, of timeframe, and of temperament. Those who are shaken out by the short-term noise will likely miss the long-term signal. But those who understand that the dollar’s fall is the very reason for Bitcoin’s rise, and who have the conviction to see the short-term turbulence for what it is, will be best positioned to navigate this great divergence and witness the dawn of a new financial landscape.
EURUSD: Correction to 1D MA50 possible.EURUSD is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 74.017, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 27.363) having completed a +15.64% rise from the February 3rd 2025 Low. That was a technical HL bottom on the 3 year Channel Up and the same amount of price increase was seen on its first bullish wave. When it peaked it made three successive highs over a 6 month period (Feb-July 2023) before starting a long term bearish sentiment creation. For now, we can expect at least a 1D MA50 test on the short-term (TP = 1.15000).
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FOREX USD/CHF🥇 CHF The Silent Assassin
While the world screamed about inflation, recession, and banana peels on the geopolitical stage, the Swiss Franc just stood there sipping Rivella and quietly murdered the competition.
+14.10% vs EUR?
+19.34% vs USD?
CHF walked into the forex party, didn’t say anything, and left with everyone’s respect.
🥈 USD – The Gym Bro on a Sugar Crash
Big muscles, loud talk, but oh no, look at those gains over time:
-4.41% vs EUR
-19.34% vs CHF
The USD resembles the guy who used to bench 250 and still talks about it while eating Doritos.
Rate hikes gave it a short-lived boost, but now it's just aired—trillions in debt and a lack of direction.
EURUSD Major event Short Weekly ChartWe may be on the verge of a major event in the forex market.
The EUR/USD is approaching its 800-week moving average, a level that historically marks significant turning points.
A sharp reversal is likely, with an initial target at the 600-week moving average, and potentially a much deeper decline beyond that.
USD/JPY Bearish Flag (30.06.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 143.40
2nd Support – 142.86
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$EU (EURUSD) 1H AnalysisEURUSD swept short-term sell-side liquidity and printed a strong displacement above the relative equal highs.
Price is now in premium territory and likely hunting liquidity before rebalancing.
Bias remains bearish if price fails to form higher-timeframe continuation. Ideal setup would be a short from signs of rejection toward 1.17163 FVG zone.
DXY Game Plan - USD IndexIt is important to watch the DXY to understand the strength of the USD across global markets.
The DXY is a key index that reflects the U.S. dollar’s dominance in foreign exchange. Therefore, tracking it can provide valuable insights into the potential direction of all major asset classes.
In this post, I’ll break down both technical and fundamental expectations.
Technical Analysis
DXY has been in a retracement phase (bearish) since January 2025. During this time, we’ve seen EUR and other major forex pairs form strong bullish trends.
Currently, the DXY is approaching a weekly bullish trendline, where I expect a potential bounce.
Additionally, DXY is trading within a discount zone (below the 0.5 Fibonacci level, also known as equilibrium). Personally, I’m watching for a deeper move into the maximum discount zone (around the 0.75 Fib level).
This area also aligns with key liquidity concepts. Ideally, I want to see a deviation below the bullish trendline, with a sweep of one of the weekly liquidity levels marked on the chart (two black horizontal lines).
I'm not relying on a clean triangle trendline retest, but it's a possibility.
Game Plan
DXY taps the bullish trendline
Deviates below it, running weekly liquidity (black lines)
Hits the max discount zone (~0.75 Fib)
Then shows signs of reversal and strength
Once that setup completes, I’ll be expecting strong USD performance, and will look to short risk assets — including stocks and major forex pairs.
Fundamental Analysis
The Federal Reserve is currently resisting pressure to cut interest rates, while Trump is vocally pushing for rate cuts.
The market is already pricing in a 79% probability of a September rate cut (source: CME FedWatch Tool), so if that happens as expected, I don’t anticipate major market reaction.
However, a surprise rate cut in July would likely trigger a flash crash in DXY/USD — though based on my game plan, I would expect a V-shaped recovery shortly afterward.
EUR, GBP, AUD, and CAD have also hit key resistance zones, so I believe we're likely to see USD strength for a while.
EURUSD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.Last time we analyzed the EURUSD pair (June 23, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signals at the bottom of the 1.5-month Channel Up:
The price is almost near our Target but since it's been consolidating for so many 4H candles on the pattern's top, it is better to take the good profit and turn bearish.
The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been a solid target for the previous two Bearish Legs, but since the last one bottomed just above it on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), we will place the Target a little higher this time also at 1.16100.
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GOLD | Pressure Below Pivot – Eyes on 3255 and 3238GOLD | Market Outlook
The overall momentum remains bearish as long as the price trades below the pivot line at 3297.
Currently, the price is attempting to stabilize below 3281, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend toward 3270 and 3255.
A confirmed 1H close below 3255 would further strengthen the bearish scenario, opening the way toward 3238.
Sell Setup:
Valid if 1H candle closes below 3281→ Targets: 3270 and 3255
Buy Setup:
Valid if 1H candle closes above 3297→ Targets: 3314
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 3281
• Support: 3255 / 3238
• Resistance: 3297 / 3314
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.80
1st Support: 95.40
1st Resistance: 99.36
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Risk On! The US Dollar Is Weak! Buy The Major Pairs!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 29 - July 4th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
Investors are taken money out of safe havens and putting it into risk assets. The US Dollar saw those outflows last week, and we are likely to see that continue going into this week.
Buy the EUR, GBP and CHF vs USD. JPY should also see some upside.
The AUD and NZD continue to grind upwards as well.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GBPUSD: The Big Short Opportunity?(Breakout Confirmation Needed)🚨 GBP/USD BANK HEIST ALERT: The Bearish Robbery Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🚨
🔥 Steal Pips Like a Pro – Thief Trading Strategy Inside! 🔥
🌟 GREETINGS, MARKET PIRATES! 🌟
🤑 To all the Money Makers, Risk Takers & Midnight Breakers!
Based on our 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (a deadly mix of technical + fundamental + intermarket analysis), we’re plotting a massive bearish heist on GBP/USD ("The Cable").
This is not financial advice—just a strategic robbery plan for those who dare to trade smart.
📉 THE HEIST STRATEGY (SHORT ENTRY FOCUS)
🎯 Target Zone: 1.32300 (or escape earlier if the market turns)
⚡ High-Risk, High-Reward Play: Oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal setup.
💣 Trap Level: Where bullish traders get wrecked.
🔑 ENTRY RULES:
"The Heist is ON!" – Wait for breakout confirmation at 1.33800 before striking.
Sell Stop Orders below breakout MA OR Sell Limit Orders (15-30 min timeframe).
Retest Entry? Ideal if price retraces to recent low/high before dropping.
📌 ALERT SETUP: Don’t miss the breakout—set a chart alert!
🛑 STOP LOSS (Risk Management):
Thief SL at 1.34800 (Swing/Day Trade basis – 3H period).
🚨 Pro Tip: "Yo, rebels! You can place SL wherever you want… but if you ignore this level, don’t cry later. Your risk, your rules."
🎯 PROFIT TARGET:
First Take-Profit: 1.32300 (or bail earlier if momentum fades).
Scalpers: Ride the short side only. Use trailing SL to lock profits.
📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (Why This Heist Works)
Before executing, check:
✅ COT Report (Are big players dumping GBP?)
✅ Macro News (UK vs. USD economic strength)
✅ Intermarket Analysis (DXY, Bonds, Equities correlation)
✅ Sentiment & Seasonality (Is the crowd too bullish?)
⚠️ WARNING: NEWS & VOLATILITY ALERTS
Avoid new trades during high-impact news (unless you love gambling).
Use trailing stops to protect profits if the market flips.
💥 BOOST THIS HEIST! 💥
🚀 Like & Share to strengthen our Thief Trading Squad!
💸 More heists = More profits. Stay tuned for the next robbery plan!
🤑 See you on the profitable side, bandits! 🏴☠️
🔴 DISCLAIMER: This is entertainment, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
#Forex #GBPUSD #TradingStrategy #ThiefTrading #BankHeist #SwingTrading #DayTrading
💬 COMMENT BELOW: Are you joining the heist or waiting for a better setup? 🚨👇
USDCAD Strongest long-term Sell in the market right now.At the beginning of the year (January 15, see chart below), we made an unpopular bearish call at the time, hinting that the USDCAD pair was approaching its Resistance Zone, hence a multi-year Top was in order:
As you can see, the moment the price hit that Resistance Zone, it got instantly rejected and a new Bearish Leg started, which has extended up to this day. This time we view this on the 1M time-frame where the Support levels are more clearly illustrated.
More particularly, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) poses as the first one, in fact it has been holding since September 2022. Our Target is still located at 1.26000, which is marginally above the 0236 Fibonacci level, which has been the 1st Target during both previous Bearish Legs. Also it is where the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) is headed to, and there are high chances of a long-term bounce there.
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WHAT IS THE EXPECTED RETURN and DURATION of this GOLD Bull Run?Well, when measured against the DXY index, a clear trend becomes apparent.
A Golden Bull typically lasts about 40 quarters, which is essentially 1 decade (give or take a quarter).
Similar to #Bitcoin and its cyclical bull markets within a larger secular bull, the returns tend to decrease over time.
However, it seems that a triple-digit Gold price relative to the DXY is on the horizon at the very least.
What would that look like if the DXY were to hit a new low around 69? This would suggest a Gold price of $6900 at a ratio of 100:1.
A Gold price of $12K with a DXY of 80 only requires a ratio of 150...
Thus, a five-digit Gold price is certainly within the realm of possibility.
I have forecasts that extend as high as $12K.
Gold Holds Above $3340 as Dollar Drops and Fed Uncertainty Rises GOLD OVERVIEW
Gold Holds Gains as Dollar Weakens and Fed Uncertainty Grows
Gold climbed above $3,340 per ounce on Thursday, supported by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar amid growing dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
Adding to market speculation, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted he may announce a new Fed Chair as early as September or October, potentially reducing Jerome Powell’s influence before his term ends in June and boosting expectations for a more accommodative policy stance.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – XAU/USD
Gold shows bearish potential if the price can stabilize below the pivot level at 3,341.
However, while trading above 3,341, a short-term correction toward 3,364–3,365 is likely before any renewed selling pressure.
Today’s U.S. GDP release may add further volatility and direction to the market.
Key Levels
Pivot Line: 3,341
Resistance: 3,364 → 3,373
Support: 3,320 → 3,302
previous idea:
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Testing Long-Term Channel SupportBy MJTrading:
Chart Overview:
The US Dollar Index has now approached a major technical confluence zone that could define the next directional move. Price is pressing into the Danger Zone near the lower boundary of a multi-year descending channel, with an Ultimate Oversell Target sitting just below.
🔹 Key Technical Highlights:
Long-Term Down Channel (Daily & Weekly):
The DXY has respected this structure for several years.
Price is currently challenging the lower boundary, a zone where reactions often occur.
Danger Zone (~95–96):
A historically reactive area.
Prior demand and channel floor converge here.
Ultimate Oversell Target (~89–90):
Marked as a deeper potential exhaustion area if the channel fails.
Moving Averages:
15 EMA ~97.8
60 EMA ~99.3
Price remains below both EMAs, confirming persistent bearish momentum.
🔹 Potential Scenarios:
Scenario A (Green Path):
A bounce off current support could trigger a relief rally back toward 98–100, targeting the mid-channel and EMAs.
Scenario B (Red Path):
A breakdown below ~95 could accelerate selling pressure, aiming for the Ultimate Oversell Target (~89).
🔹 How I See It:
This is a high-risk inflection zone. Any bullish setups here remain counter-trend and require confirmation via strong reversal signals. Conversely, a decisive breakdown could have significant implications for USD pairs and commodities.
💡 Notes:
This chart includes the weekly inset view for broader context.
Keep risk management tight in this volatile area.
🔹 Reminder:
This idea is for educational purposes only—not financial advice.
💬 How are you positioning around the USD? Share your thoughts and charts below!
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PCEs & attacks on PowellWe are carefully monitoring the PCEs today, to see, "wins" this small battle in the rate-lowering war. Let's dig in.
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