USDCAD Could move 1,064pips up the next month.The reasons why I strongly believe this move will happen are the following:
According to the CFTC non-commercials are shorting CAD.
Non-commercials have 20,388 positions long and 68,914 positions shorts. This means that they are selling more CAD than they actually buying it. According to this info we could expect a move to the upside.
From a monthly perspective there is plenty of buy side liquidity in USDCAD.
If you look at the chart you will see two blue circles and a dollar bill between them . Those highs have not been liquidated yet. The price is aggressively chasing those highs. According to the explanation provided the price is extremely bullish because is moving to a strong liquidity area.
From monthly perspective the price already liquidates sell side liquidity.
If look at the chart you will see a yellow circle . The yellow circle represents the sell side liquidity that was liquidated by the price.
The price has bullish structure.
The price is making higher highs will doing so liquidating sell side liquidity.
There is a lot of optimists about the dollar getting stronger in the near future.
DXY has bullish structure.
The DXY is currently making a retracement. It is currently at 50%. We could assume that is very close to be ready because it took sell side liquidity as well.
In other words, the CAD is getting weaker and the USD stronger.
DJ FXCM Index
USDSGD Still a buy but not for long.The USDSGD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern (blue) since the February 02 2023 Low but on December 28 2023 it posted a Lower Low, so we have to consider the possibility of an emerging (dotted) Channel Down.
As a result, the trend remains bullish but technically we should be careful and only target the top of Channel Down at 1.37350 (symmetrical Bullish Leg at +4.49%).
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DXY | APR 15 2024We might get weakness here, simply due to the fact how technically overextended the pair is. Fundamentally, we are anticipating rate cuts, so that helps in forming the bias. Monitoring $105.95 as of now for further confluences, as it will help me form an idea on the rest of the pairs in the Dollar basket.
USDCAD Best sell entry in 6 months.The USDCAD pair is crossing over the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the long term range since October 2022.
The last two times it did that break out, it turned into the most efficient sell opportunity. Last time to do so was on November 1st 2023.
With the 1day RSI also deep into the overbought region, we turn bearish.
Sell and target 1.3300 (0.236 Fib, it has been hit all times the pattern gave this sell signal).
Previous chart:
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EURUSD: Oversold on 1D but still bearish long-term.EURUSD turned oversold today on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.517, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 31.573) as it failed to sustain the rebound during the early session. The long term pattern is a Channel Down since the start of the year and this is the second bearish wave for a LL. The 1D MACD is on the second Bearish Cross inside 30 days and even though a short term rebound might be possible, we expect a test of the Channel Down's bottom by the end of the month (TP = 1.05550). That would be on a perfect -4.00% symmetry with the decline of the previous bearish wave.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GOLD 3 H TIME FRAM Full ? UPDATE READ THE CAPTION)Hello traders what do you think about Gold)
Gold pair price All time high Bullish Gold pair price 3H time frame break level of 2270 test 2280+ I think 💭 Gold pair price 2280+ 2290 of break out Next Movie possible 2300+ 2324 Gold pair price technical analysis update 3H Chart
Technical analysis update berak above avrege levels📉📈📊👍
✅ 2124 berak above avrege 2188+ 2208 Done ✅
2208 berak above avrege 2230+ 2250 Done ✅
2250 berak above avrege 2263+2280 Done
2290 break above avrege 2300+
2324 / looking a new Ath
^
Gold Buy. 2270
TP 2280
TP ^. 2290
SL @ 2265
G old sell 2300
TP ^ 2290
TP ^ 2280
SL @ 2305
Follow risk management
Don't forget like this analysis
NZDUSD: One More Bearish Setup 🇳🇿🇺🇸
One more pair that looks very bearish to me after news is NZDUSD.
I see a confirmed bearish breakout of a support line of a horizontal
trading range on an hourly time frame.
I think that a bearish trend on the pair will continue.
Initial target 0.59
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EURUSD: Bearish Fundamentals?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Looks like the Retail Sales data may strengthen US Dollar today.
As a confirmation, I see a very bearish price action pattern on EURUSD:
bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern in a bearish trend.
I will expect a bearish movement at least to 1.063
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GBPUSD Rebound expected but bearish overallThe GBPUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down (dotted) since the March 08 2024 High, which can be considered a Lower High on a potentially emerging (dashed) Channel Down. At the same time, the downside on the long-term is limited by a Higher Lows trend-line that was initiated on the March 08 2023 Low.
We will formulate our strategy accordingly. On the short-term we expect a rebound towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (such as the August 30 2023 High), targeting 1.2570.
On the medium-term, we will stick to the (dotted) Channel Down, targeting the Higher Lows trend-line at 1.2300, which is also above the 0.786 Fib (the October 03 2023 Low hit it marginally).
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US30 HEAD AND SHOULER??Simple trading - Head and shoulders
Us30 has broken the neck-line of the Head and shoulder pattern on the 4hr. US30 is bullish on the higher time frames so always be ready for a pullback to the upside. Looking at the daily chart to see if the price will retest previous support and turn resistance.
Due to the lack of bullish momentum on the smaller timeframes, I would NOT advise taking a buy trade to previous support as the market is making lower highs and lower lows. This clearly indicates that the bears are in control. At any moment the price could drop and you do not want to be caught in that.
Be patient and wait for the price to play out. Look to take a sell positions
in the short term at respectable levels
LONG OILOILUSD is an uptrend channel and the next target is at area 90-95 which is the neckline of the double bottom pattern forming and a break above this level will confirm its bullish movement to the previous high at 130 level and to the longer target at the upper range of the channel at 150-160.
Crude Oil Forecast1- A dip into weekly fvg would be ideal before a meaningful push up towards the daily eqh's
2- I don't see why they would raid them so soon so that where my intra day bearish stance is.
3-Overall Im Bullish
4- Staying above Monthly open and the FVG next to it is key to remaining bullish, yes we can wick into these areas but most importantly is the body of the candle doesn't close within.
Usd clearly break up, could pullback this weekHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
On the backdrop of the CPI data hinting that inflation is still hot, FED kicked the interest cut ball lower down the street ( later than Jun, i believe). Therefore the strength in USD i guess.
Majors capitulated. Watch for some bounce if u want to long pairs like EU GU for a quick run. But likely overall is a short majors for me ( e.g. EU GU)
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
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BTCUSD Update - 52k?Seem to be going perfectly as predicted. BTC is dropping, retesting Supports to regain its bullish momentum. For how long will BTC continue to drop?
For start, this is just the beginning. BTC has completed the 4hr M pattern. BTC has just broken under major SUPPORT. This support is also the neckline for the Head and shoulder pattern from the ATH. Waiting for a confirmation by a retest. If BTC rejects the Daily support at 63500, look for sell pressure to 52k.
The USD in a ConundrumThe USD at the start of the year was trading near the 100 lvl but has managed to push above the 106 lvl in a little over a few months. If price is able to break out of the 107 lvl, there isn't to many resistances for the USD to break (the 108 could be one) and price might be able to hit the 114 lvl made in 2022. With the CPI data coming in a little higher then expected and traders/investors/analysts speculating that the FED will likely hold off on reducing rates (currently, FED Rate Monitoring tool is showing a 71.7% chance of FED holding rates), the elections coming up, conflicts in the Middle East/Europe/Asia, continued government spending (which keeps increasing), not enough government revenue which leads to more borrowing, this puts the FED between a rock and a hard place. Will the FED continue to hold rates and potentially push the economy to a recession (and a real one not one that did happen but supposedly didn't happen, back in 2022 Q1/Q2) or continue on with lowering rates, keep the economy going and potentially cause inflation to spike? Either way it is No Bueno.
What is interesting is how commodities such as Gold/Silver/Oil are pushing up higher while the USD pushes up higher. These products are typical non correlated to each other, yet, currently they are. The USD shot up to 106. Silver from the start of the year pushed up from near 22 to now coming close to hitting 30 before pulling back to below 28. Gold pushed lower to below 2,000 in the beginning of February and pushed above 2,440 before pulling back to 2,360. Oil began near 70 and is trading above 85. So, when things return to the mean (non correlated), either the USD will take a hit or commodities will. The main things is how much of a hit will happen. Risk assets such as the stock market are finally taking a hit as the market just kept climbing and climbing, with the DJ Futures Market pushing past 40k and finally being cracked in the beginning of April.
I am thinking that the USD might be able to hit the 108 lvl as other Central Banks are holding onto rates (just recently the ECB stuck to holding rates). If the FED holds onto current rates and other banks decide to reduce rates, the USD will skyrocket higher. If other banks decide to keep holding rates while the FED does, it will likely be whose economy can withstand the higher rates the longest.
Protect yourselves with either reducing position sizing to withstand a large move, hedge, or do not be in a trade and see if price moves how you are speculating it. I have no position on the USD or in Forex itself (I'm tied up in other trades), but I am watching this because it is part of the plan I have when my other positions in other trades are completed.
Y'all have some great trading out there.
USDJPY: Back to 1990's 🇺🇸🇯🇵
152.0 key horizontal resistance kept absorbing bullish
pressure for almost 2 years.
This week, with the release of CPI data, that structure was broken
and the market set a new very important higher high.
The next historical structure that we can find is based on the price
action in 1990th.
159.0 - 160.0 resistance cluster is the next, closest key resistance.
A recent bullish breakout opens a potential for a further bullish continuation to that
psychological structure.
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