USDJPY - BEARISH MOVE Hi Traders !
After a huge bearish move,
The USDJPY broke the support level (150.261 - 151.227).
This key level becomes a new resistance level !
So, I expect a bearish move📉
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TARGET: 147.200🎯
DJ FXCM Index
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 104.54
1st Support: 104.05
1st Resistance: 104.81
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TRADING THE DIVERGENCE ON USDCHF RIGHT NOWHighly potential of reversal on USDCHF right now as we can find a Falling Wedge Pattern and also strong divergence.
I believe this trade offers very good R:R, with 40-50 pips risk and potential gain 150-200 pips.
Let's go!!!
CHEERS!
USDCHF Short term bullsUSDCHF May run to 0.92100 early next week, as the week's high. I anticipate a reversal once it reaches that level ahead of US PMI and US GDP. Given that the GDP is expected to decline, any less than forecast figure may push it 0.88700 then later to 0.88100.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook ICT ConceptsU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis
💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on DXY , dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
💡Previous Analysis Review:
In our previous analysis, we predicted a sweep of the equal lows from the past. We have now also observed a sweep of last week's low.
📍Current Market Overview:
At the moment, the price is situated in the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) levels. We have recently swept the Previous Week Low (PWL), indicating a potential shift in market direction. Given these conditions, we can foresee the price expanding higher to target the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL).
🔍 Identifying Key Levels
The chart highlights several significant levels and zones that influence the current market behavior:
• PWH: Previous Week High, indicating recent market highs.
• PWL: Previous Week Low, serving as recent support.
• SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, areas where sell orders are placed.
• EQL: Equal Lows, indicating levels of support and potential liquidity.
• BSL: Buy Side Liquidity, areas where buy orders are placed.
📊 Key Considerations
• Current Price Position: The price is currently trading around 104.380, after sweeping the EQL and PWL.
• OTE Levels: The price is in the OTE levels, indicating a potential bullish entry point.
• Targeting BSL: The price is expected to expand higher to target the Buy Side Liquidity.
📈 Bullish Scenario
Given the current price action and key considerations, a bullish scenario is possible if the following conditions are met:
• Price Expansion: The price may expand higher to target the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL).
• Reaction at OTE: The price being in the OTE levels suggests a strong potential for a move higher.
📉 Bearish Scenario
A bearish scenario should be considered if the following conditions are met:
• Buy-side Liquidity Taken: For any short case scenario, we need the buy-side liquidity (swing points) to be taken first.
• Continuation Lower: After taking out the buy-side liquidity, the price may continue lower.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary
• Bullish Expectation: The expectation is for the price to potentially expand higher from the OTE levels to target the BSL.
• Bearish Expectation: For a bearish scenario, we need the buy-side liquidity to be taken out first before considering short positions.
Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring DXY today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
USDSGD Buy signal at the bottom of a Channel Down.The USDSGD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the April 16 2024 High and today almost touched its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). That is a technical short-term buy opportunity towards its top (Lower Highs trend-line).
The previous Bullish Leg of the pattern registered a +1.31% rise. Our Target is slightly lower than a new potential rise of this magnitude at 1.35000.
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Buy GBP/USD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2850
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.2905
2nd Resistance – 1.2930
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.2814. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Sell EUR/USD Bearish Channel (Fed Interest rate)The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0825, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0785
2nd Support – 1.0767
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0845. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
DXY: Anticipating Long Opportunities Amid Fed Policy and NFP RepThe US Dollar has experienced a decline due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver dovish guidance in its upcoming policy statement. Investors anticipate the Fed will recognize progress in curbing inflation and highlight growing risks to the strength of the labor market. Following the Fed's policy announcement, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for July will become the crucial trigger for the US Dollar's movement.
In our analysis, we've identified a potential demand area around $103.177. At this level, we are opening our first long position with a minimum target of 2R. Should the price continue to fall, we are prepared to shift our focus to the next demand area at $101.422 for additional long opportunities.
Given the current market conditions and our analysis, we are strategically looking for long positions on the DXY, anticipating a rebound from these key demand areas.
✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Sell EUR/USD Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.0852
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0816
2nd Support – 1.0801
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0875. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
BITCOIN - Don't Miss This Move Hey Traders,
It look likes that Bitcoin has completed its first impulse up. Break of 8H 50 EMA means that the correction has started. Expecting this correction to be completed around our buy zone.
LONG Setup:
- Wait for subwave 2 to be formed.
- Watch any rejection at the buy zone
- Stoploss: Below recent lows
- Targets: 73k,80k,90k, and 100k
Good Luck and Trade Safe.
USDCHF LooongBased on the previous analysis, there were two possibilities about this currency, either it continues to complete the falling flag pattern, or retest the upper trendline of the channel.
It broke out of a major market zone, i.e 0.886 and retested it. I do anticipate that this price will continue with the bullish momentum.
Entry point at 0.889, SL at 0.8815 and TP at 0.9045
EURUSD Two clear sell entries.The EURUSD pair hit today its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 04 and immediately rebounded. As long as it holds, we expect a rebound to 1.0900 and then a rejection, as the long-term pattern is a Channel Up that has already priced its new Higher High (on July 17) and has started the new Bearish Leg.
If the 4H MA200 breaks first though, we will have a bearish break-out continuation confirmation. For both sell entries, our Target is 1.07300 (the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as on the June 14 Low).
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UsdChfPrice has taken out lower lows.
Let’s wait for price to create lower high.
Then we should see new lower lows form.
Buy USD/CHF Triangle BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.8853
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.8895
2nd Resistance – 0.8923
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 0.8790. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Gold vs. Dollar: Debunking the Correlation MythIn financial markets, it's common to look for correlations between different assets to understand their behavior and make informed trading decisions.
One widely discussed relationship is between Gold (XAU/USD) and the US Dollar Index (DXY). While it's often assumed that these two assets are inversely correlated, a deeper analysis reveals that this is not always the case.
This article explores the nuances of the XAU/USD and DXY relationship, demonstrating that they are not consistently correlated.
Understanding XAU/USD and DXY
XAU/USD represents the price of Gold in US dollars. Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, meaning its price tends to rise in times of economic uncertainty.
DXY, or the US Dollar Index, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc. The index provides a broad measure of the US dollar's strength.
The Assumption of Inverse Correlation
The assumption of an inverse correlation between XAU/USD and DXY is based on the idea that when the dollar strengthens, it becomes more expensive to buy Gold, leading to a decrease in Gold prices.
Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper, and its price tends to rise. However, this relationship is not as straightforward as it seems.
Historical Data Analysis
To understand the true nature of the relationship between XAU/USD and DXY, let's examine historical data.
1. 2008 Financial Crisis: During the 2008 financial crisis, both gold and the US dollar saw periods of appreciation. Investors flocked to the safety of both assets amid widespread market turmoil. This simultaneous rise contradicts the notion of a straightforward inverse correlation.
2. 2014-2016 Period: From mid-2014 to the end of 2016, the DXY experienced significant strength, rising from around 80 to over 100.
During this period, gold prices also showed resilience, hovering around $1,200 to $1,300 per ounce. The expected inverse correlation was not evident during these years.
3. COVID-19 Pandemic: In early 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sharp rise in both gold and the US dollar. The DXY spiked as investors sought the liquidity and safety of the US dollar, while gold surged as a hedge against unprecedented economic uncertainty and aggressive monetary policy actions.
4. Gold new ATH's in 2024: Even recently, if we examine the charts, we see that since the beginning of the year, XAU/USD has risen by 4000 pips, while the DXY is 4% above its price at the start of the year.
Factors Influencing the Relationship:
Several factors can disrupt the expected inverse correlation between XAU/USD and DXY:
- Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment plays a crucial role. During periods of extreme uncertainty, both gold and the US dollar can be sought after for their safe-haven properties.
- Monetary Policy: Central bank actions, particularly those of the Federal Reserve, can impact both the US dollar and gold. For instance, lower interest rates may weaken the dollar but boost gold prices as investors seek better returns elsewhere.
- Geopolitical Events: Political instability, trade tensions, and other geopolitical factors can drive simultaneous demand for both assets, decoupling their traditional relationship.
- Inflation Expectations: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. If inflation expectations rise, gold prices might increase regardless of the dollar's strength or weakness.
Conclusion:
While there are periods when XAU/USD and DXY exhibit an inverse correlation, this relationship is far from consistent. Various factors, including market sentiment, monetary policy, geopolitical events, and inflation expectations, can influence their behavior. Traders and investors should not rely solely on the assumed inverse correlation but rather consider the broader context and multiple factors at play.
Understanding that XAU/USD and DXY are not always correlated can lead to more nuanced trading strategies and better risk management. In the complex world of financial markets, recognizing the limitations of assumed relationships is crucial for making informed decisions.
Best Regards!
Mihai Iacob
