USDCHF is rising but it's not late to buy.USDCHF has been on a very strong 2 week rise on Support A and has turned the 1day MA50 into Support. Until that breaks, we expect the bullish trend to continue.
Technically this is an emerging Channel Up that looks very much like the January rebound on Support A, which also consolidated after a nearly +3.00% rise and then moved to a +4.78% rise before it pulled back.
Buy and target 0.87900 (+4.78%), which will approach the 1day MA200.
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EURUSD: Channel Down on 1H giving two trades.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.958, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 45.308) as it has been on a non-stop decline, which is even more effectively displayed on the 1H chart. You can see the flawless Channel Down making -0.90% Bearish Waves and then pulling back to the 0.5 Fibonacci only to get rejected again under the 1H MA100. This gives a potential double trade, initally with a short now to complete the -0.90% wave (TP = 1.08555) and then long to the 0.5 Fib (TP = 1.09000).
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GOLD targets liquidity above 2670-2685—what’s the next play?Gold is currently consolidating within the 2663 - 2636 range, with significant resistance and liquidity zones looming overhead. In particular, the 2670 - 2685 zone is a key battleground, where bears may aggressively re-enter the market. The recent global rally is gradually losing momentum and transitioning into a more sideways pattern between 2675 and 2604.
Key factors shaping the outlook include:
- **China's economic struggles**: After initially providing strong support for gold in response to potential fiscal stimulus, China's economy is again showing signs of weakness. This raises questions about the sustainability of gold’s earlier gains.
- **US interest rates**: With the Federal Reserve's next move still uncertain, market participants are caught between two possibilities—a pause in rate cuts or a modest 0.25% reduction. This creates uncertainty around whether gold can maintain its bullish bias, especially as it sits in a flat range with no clear breakout in sight.
- **Dollar strength**: The US dollar has been rallying on the back of last week’s economic data, and the index may have more room to climb. This strengthens the case for a more hawkish Fed, with policymakers increasingly split between aggressive and cautious stances on future rate policy.
On the geopolitical front, the Middle East conflict, which recently stoked gold’s safe-haven demand, is showing signs of easing. With some risks abating, could we see market participants start to "lock in" profits, especially as gold approaches these crucial resistance zones?
**Key resistance levels**: 2663, 2670, 2685
**Key support levels**: 2645, 2636, 2623
Given the overall fundamental backdrop, it’s unclear what factors are currently propping up gold at these levels. The price remains range-bound with no immediate catalysts for a breakout, and the looming liquidity in the resistance zone suggests any retest could lead to a reversal and correction, especially as it's been two weeks since the last such attempt.
The big question now is whether this sideways movement will eventually resolve into a deeper correction or if fresh catalysts can drive another leg higher. Either way, the market seems poised for a decisive move soon.
USDCHF: Support & Resistance Analysis 🇺🇸🇨🇭
Here is my latest structure analysis for USDCHF.
Resistance 1: 0.8608 - 0.8630 area
Resistance 2: 0.8728 - 0.8747 area
Support 1: 0.8559 - 0.8562 area
Support 2: 0.8500 - 0.8544 area
Support 3: 0.8374 - 0.8404 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Sell EUR/USD Strong DollarThe EUR/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0937, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0885
2nd Support – 1.0860
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0960. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Gold 15-Minute Time Frame – Breakout of TrendlineGold has broken out of a key trendline on the 15-minute chart, and I'm closely watching the next resistance level in the pink zone. If we get a confirmed breakout above this resistance, my next target is the higher pink zone, which I've identified as the next significant resistance level.
Strategy: If the price reaches this upper pink zone, I’ll consider reducing or closing my position to lock in profits.
Sell GBP/USD Bearish ChannelThe GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3062. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2988
2nd Support – 1.2960
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3090. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Today High Impact News :
GBP - GDP, Trade Balance
EUR - German CPI
USD - PPI
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Sell XAU/USD (Gold) Channel FormationThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a Channel Formation pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2650, This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2624
2nd Support – 2607
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2668. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which accts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 103.33
1st Support: 102.68
1st Resistance: 103.67
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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Is Gold ready to retrace?Gold has experienced a significant appreciation of 48.18% since 6 October 2023. This remarkable increase can be attributed to rising global uncertainties, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the impending US presidential elections.
New Highs and Market Indicators
From a technical standpoint, gold is currently trading at historic highs, placing it in uncharted territory with no established resistance levels on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated a reading of 77.26 on 26 September, suggesting that gold may be in an overbought condition. Generally, RSI readings above 70 signal potential exhaustion of buying momentum.
The price has also been trading above the 200-period Average for 254 candles, which tends to show a potentially ageing upward trend on the daily chart. The longer the price remains on the same side of a Moving Average, the more prone it is to a retraction.
So, considering these elements:
1. High appreciation of more than 48% in Gold prices over the past 12 months,
2. Recent RSI reading at 77.26, indicating overbought conditions
3. Potentially ageing uptrend, with 254 candles above the SMA200,
Given these factors, there is a possibility that gold may experience a slightly stronger pullback if it manages to break below the uptrend line drawn on the chart between 5 August and 10 October. Such a movement could lead to a decline toward the 2480.00 level within a few days.
The Influence of Political Uncertainty
On the other hand, gold is often viewed as a safe haven during uncertain times. As recent US election polls indicate a technical tie between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, it is plausible that a more definitive movement in gold prices may not occur until after the election results are announced.
Navigating the Gold Market
In conclusion, while the current indicators suggest a potential for price retraction, gold's status as a haven and the upcoming political landscape may heavily influence future price actions. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these elements in their market strategies.
Disclaimer:
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EURUSD Bearish trend intact.The sell signal after the Double Top (September 23, see chart below) and the RSI Lower Highs rejection turned out to be a very accurate one and the price has already covered 75% of the distance to hitting our 1.08350 Target:
Given that there shouldn't be much divergence until then, we want to focus today on the 1W time-frame. As you can see, based on the ranged (Rectangle) pattern of the past 2 years, the price is at the top of the neutral zone, not even having broken the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1.08350 is located on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and that is the minimum downside we expect, as the 1W MA100 provided the Lows of June 24 and April 15 2024. The long-term Support Zone is located considerably lower than that (1.04500 - 1.05250) and that is technically the downside potential of the pair.
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DXY Rebounding on the 1M MA50. But for how long?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is on a strong green 1M candle, already halfway through the month of October, as it is rebounding after making an exact test of the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), the long-term Support.
On this chart we can see the DXY's multi-year price action. Even though it was on a heavy downtrend since the February 1985 High, it managed to break above it in January 2015 and sustain a strong Channel Up, coming off the March 2008 bottom of the disastrous Housing Crisis.
Within this strong Channel Up, we see a repeated pattern as long as Bullish and Bearish Legs are concerned. As you can see, the bottoms have been formed significantly below the 1M MA50, so this indicates that it is not time to buy yet.
If anything, a controlled short is justified and as we get closer to the bottom of the Channel Up, start buying on a multi-year basis (as long as the 1M MA200 (orang trend-line) holds). Based on the 1M RSI, where the similarities with the previous Leg are more obvious, we should be around levels similar to October 2017, so starting next month or December, we should start resuming the downtrend and a 'modest' level to target is 97.000.
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USDJPY has bullish technical conditionsThe latest economic data suggests the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again next month, but a larger cut is being underestimated.
Therefore, US bond yields remain stable and the wide spread between Japanese government bond yields and US bond yields continues to support the US Dollar.
On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY The uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the nearest support level at 148.113 of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
Temporarily, USD/JPY's upside momentum is limited by the upper channel edge, once USD/JPY breaks above the channel it will continue to trend upward towards the 150.739 levels in the short term, more than 151,866.
Even if the 0.382% Fibonacci level is not enough to support USD/JPY in the short term, it still has other support slightly lower at 147.113 – 146.424.
As long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within price channel, it still has a bullish technical outlook with notable technical points listed below.
Support: 148.113 – 147.112 – 146.424
Resistance: 149,364 – 150,739 – 151,866
Sell GBP/USD Triangle Breakout The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.3055
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2988
2nd Support – 1.2960
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
CHZ in a Multi-Year Winter: Awaiting a Break for Wave 3 of 1CHZ looks like it’s deep into a multi-year correction as part of Wave 2 of the higher degree trend. The flameout in Wave 5 of 1 resulted in the current, drawn-out consolidation. This extended correction could be unfolding as a WXYXZ or a very elongated ABC pattern, reflecting the market’s need to churn and reset after the huge rally.
For now, volume remains low, suggesting the slow bleed may continue for some time longer. However, if we see a significant increase in volume, combined with a break of the upper trendline, this could signal the start of Wave 3 of 1, setting the stage for a strong impulse move upward.
Until then, patience is key, as the consolidation phase persists. But when the conditions align, CHZ could be primed for a major breakout.