USDCAD View Looking for the buy at the level 1.395 with reversal till 1.405 level.
Expecting the retracement or pullback till 1.39 and then to 1.382.
Chart is shared only for the educational purpose only.
Trade with own risk.
DJ FXCM Index
AUDUSD: Time to turn bullish again.AUDUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.008, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 21.063) as it has been declining since the September 30th High. Technically though it is time to turn bullish again as not only has the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, but the double bottom on the 1D RSI is identical to the February 13th 2024 Low. The resulting rebound reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level before a rejection. Consequently, we are turning bullish here, aiming for the current 0.5 Fib (TP = 0.66900).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDCHF - NEW BREAKOUT Hello Traders !
After a huge bullish move,
The USDCHF broke the resistance level (0.88420 - 0.88930)
This key level becomes a new support level !
So, i expect a new bullish move📈
________________
TARGET: 0.89660🎯
Why I was surprised some called for a cooling/correction of USD$
Daily & Weekly Below
Late last week and earlier this week, some traders & price predictors were giving their big 'scoop' about the Dollar correcting going into the start of this week. I didn't really buy it and here is why.
I knew that there was no real recent resistance for USDX at these current levels. In fact, absolutely nothing for 12 months.
I could also see that by late last week the Dollar had simply pulled back from its recent high at around 107.03 and yes even got over a whole number before pulling back and closing a little lower on 14 November. By last Friday 1 week ago the USDX (dollar index) was a mere 0.3% below 107.03. Also, look at the combined volume for last week and for that matter this week. Why and how would any instrument recede in price after all that weekly volume?
Whenever, I make a call on the USDX, I am acutely aware of its wide influencing price behaviour on currency pairs, gold price and even Crypto and other commodities.
Making calls on the dollar should be reserved for those who properly pull the chart apart and study the price-action with leading-indicators, not some sort of on the run call like "the dollar looks like selling, its a bit overbought". Theres no such thing as over bought when an instrument is rallying.
I said the USD was BREAKING OUT back when it was around 100 prior to Gold's breakout. I had concerns over RSI Monthly Oversold levels and I could see historically when this had happened to the Dollar (on a USDX chart with monthly RSI levels plotted) that this occurrence had preceded a major breakout in the USD$. Multiple times at different periods going back only several years.
Perhaps, next time give us your reasons why the USD is correcting and taking a break, that we can see how sound your technical analysis trading methods might be.
Don't do something for example Bloomberg recommends in a headline, I am not picking on Bloomberg but the entire trading news, who really don't have a clue and are chase headlines.
USD/JPY – Key Green Zone on 1H Time FrameIf the price returns to this green zone, buyers could reenter, pushing the price higher.
Strategy:
For long entries, watch for confirmation of a rebound in this zone.
If you are currently short, this could be a good area to reduce your position as buyers may step back in.
Stay cautious and manage your risk accordingly!
USDCHF: Potential rejection on the 1W MA100.USDCHF is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.705, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 41.714) but only just came out of neutrality on 1W (RSI = 58.054) despite the fact that it reached the 1W MA100 last week. Since February 2023, the 1W MA100 has been the first level of Resistance, so taking a short now is completely justified technically. The final Resistance thus short entry for us is the 1W MA200, which hasn't closed a candle over it in 2 years. Now that happens to be at the top of the Rectangle (body candles closings only). Either way, we are targeting the Rectangle's bottom (TP = 0.84100).
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USDCAD top of Channel Up rejection. Strong sell.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low and on Monday it hit its top (Higher Highs trend-line) and got rejected. This is a similar peak to November 01 2023, with the 1D RSI turning downwards as well on an early sell signal.
Initially, we expect at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested, so our Target is 1.37300.
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US DOLLAR - Let Me Explain My Bearish Thesis...In this video, I’ll share why I believe the markets are on the verge of a major downturn.
By analyzing the US dollar chart alongside Gold, the S&P 500, and Bond Yields, I’ll explain why we may be approaching the final stages of this market cycle for stocks and asset prices.
This shift could devastate the economy, setting the stage for the next bull market. While the extent of the drop will depend on market forces, I’ll explore how such a scenario could unfold. We’ve already seen Oil prices plunge to zero—if you think that can’t happen to other markets, time may prove otherwise.
This is simply a turning point, a necessary reset to pave the way for future growth.
This is not financial advice.
EURUSD: Long term bottom formation. Target 1.09250.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.566, MACD = -0.011, ADX = 28.963) as despite the consolidation since last Thursday, it hasn't yet started to recover. This is however a common price action during bottom formation proccesses (like September and March 2023) and since the 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence (HL), we expect a rally to start soon. In the past rebounds that stopped initially on the HH trendline but for slightly lower risk we are targeting the November 5th High (TP = 1.09250), which started the recent selling.
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US DollarLooking at historical events, Specially heading into 2025 as a year where we could see sharp declines in the stock market as rebalancing commences early in 2025. The US dollar has enjoyed a lot of support over the last couple of months. and could still enjoy more, but as a long term investor and position trader im not interested in buying USD at these levels as COT index is showing imminent signs of reversals coming. Coupled with Seasonality it could happen in December. ill await clearer shifts on lower time frames for an entry. retail traders also are 80% long EURUSD, the moment they start selling i will buy and hold.
USDJPY Trade IdeaUSD is in bullish , which means all other weak currencies should be bearish.
As you can see in the chart of FX:USDJPY weekly open is holding as a support. once it breaks this support and holds it as a resistance, I will short it with this confirmation, and put stop loss at previous candle high. And tp would be current year mid.
I will keep you updated with all my trades.
Bearish reversal?S&P500 is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 5,961.93
1st Support: 5,902.96
1st Resistance: 6,027.61
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD strong buy signal if the 4hour MA50 breaks.EURUSD has started trading inside a Channel Up pattern, approaching the 4hour MA50 with its 4hour RSI on the rise.
This is identical to the pattern of late October both on price and RSI terms.
When that pattern finally closed a candle over the 4hour MA50, the price was catapulted to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (but remained under the 4hour MA200).
As a result, go long if the 4hour MA50 gets crossed and target 1.07550 (Fib 1.618).
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Ethereum (ETH/USD): Bullish Momentum Building Ethereum is currently trading within a rising channel pattern, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Here's the breakdown:
1.Support Levels:
Strong support at $3,080 (marked as 4H Support) has held firm, preventing further downside.
The ascending trendline is providing consistent upward pressure.
2.Resistance Zones:
Immediate resistance at $3,143 (30m Resistance).
Key level to watch is $3,224 (4H Resistance), which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel.
3.Volume & RSI:
Volume is gradually increasing, indicating renewed buyer interest.
RSI is rising from oversold levels, supporting a bullish outlook.
4.Target Levels:
A breakout above $3,143 could propel ETH towards $3,224, the next significant resistance.
Bullish Scenario:
If ETH holds above $3,114 and breaks $3,143 decisively, expect a swift move toward $3,224. Beyond this, a continuation within the channel could aim for $3,280.
Risk management is key—watch the $3,080 support zone closely for invalidation of the bullish setup.
USDJPY: Anticipating a Bearish Move After Key Resistance TestUSDJPY is shaping up for a potential short setup, but patience is key as we wait for price to hit a critical resistance zone. Let’s break it down:
The Setup
Price is currently on a bullish push, targeting the highlighted zone at 154.332.
This resistance level is a key area where sellers could regain control. Once price enters this zone, I’ll be watching closely for signs of exhaustion or reversal to enter short.
The Plan
1️⃣ Entry Zone: I’m looking to go short from the 154.332 area, anticipating that the bullish momentum will lose steam here.
2️⃣ Stop Loss: My stop loss is placed at 155.397, safely above the resistance to protect against invalidation.
3️⃣ Take Profit: My primary target is the 152.242 support level, offering a solid risk-to-reward ratio.
Why This Makes Sense
This setup combines structure and momentum. The resistance at 154.332 aligns with previous price reactions, making it a strong area to expect sellers to step in. By positioning in this zone, I’m aiming to catch the reversal early without waiting for traditional confirmation.
Mindset Tip:
"It’s not about chasing trades; it’s about letting the market come to you. Know your levels, define your risk, and trust your process."
From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters
The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets.
To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures.
2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index
The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components:
Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block.
Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence.
Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems.
The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading.
3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy
To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward:
Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value
This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends.
For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions.
4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights
The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance.
For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance.
5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures
The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can:
Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics.
Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly.
Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD.
6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures
Trade Setup:
o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES).
o Entry Point: Around 5900.00
o Targets:
Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level).
Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension).
o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio.
Rationale:
The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to:
Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum.
The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior.
Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level.
These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics.
Trade Mechanics:
o Instrument Options:
ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point.
MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract.
o Margins (approximate, depending on broker):
ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract.
MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin.
Execution Plan Example:
Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00.
Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio.
Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets.
7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures
By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights.
The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision.
As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Sell USD/JPY Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.42, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 153.18
2nd Support – 152.55
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Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
NZD/USD on strong downtrend amid USD strengthThe US dollar's recent surge, reaching around 106.5 post-election, impacts global markets and American consumers. Strong economic data and inflation pressures bolster the dollar, while Trump's tariffs could enhance its strength. Meanwhile, the NZD has dropped to 0.58574 against the USD, influenced by New Zealand's economic conditions and fluctuating commodity prices. As the yen and peso also weaken significantly, the dollar's future depends on unfolding policies and geopolitical events. Analysts foresee potential gains but caution against international retaliation.
GBPUSD: Buy signal at the bottom of the Rising Wedge.GBPUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.906, MACD = -0.012, ADX = 45.336) as it almost reached the HL trendline of the Rising Wedge. The technical bottom should start forming now and with the RSI hitting the oversold limit (30.000) on Friday, we can claim that there is a significant upside behind this with limited risk. The similar bottom of October 3rd 2023 targeted initially the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That is our target this time also (TP = 1.03080).
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EURUSD Bottom made. Now rally until end of year.The EURUSD pair eventually fulfilled all of our bearish signals since the September top, with the most recent one (November 11, see chart below) successfully hitting our 1.05300 Target:
We are now shifting to a long-term bullish sentiment after a long time, as the price finally reached the 1.05185 - 1.04500 Support Zone, which is holding for almost 2 years (since early January 2023).
The 1W RSI is virtually identical to the July - September 2023 Bearish Leg, on which we based all of our sell signals, as it was identified from early on that the similarities between the two were strong (1D chart).
Now that the 1.236 Fibonacci extension got hit, we expect the bullish reversal to reach at least the 0.5 Fibonacci level, as it happened on November 20 2023. As a result, our Target is currently 1.09400.
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USDJPYUSDJPY . Potential long opportunity.
After USDJPY has made its correction down to the trend line , the pair is still following the structure and still remains bullish . While USD is still “the best performing currency” at the moment, we can also take that into consideration for the bull move we are anticipating. If our SL is hit, the pair would be breaking structure and make deeper pullbacks in the price. Our SL (Stop Loss) is sitting at 153.758 . An important KL (Key Level) we have to look at is 155.626 . If the KL is broken to the upside, we would see our TP (Take Profit) hit, which is sitting at 157.865 .
PARAMETERS
- Entry: 154.815
- SL: 153.758
- TP: 157.865
KEY NOTES
- USDJPY made it’s pullback down to our trend line.
- Breaks below our SL would result in lower lows.
- Breaks above our KL would result in higher prices and hitting our TP.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
USDCAD BULLISH SETUPAbove this high we wait for a solid BOS, the nature of a candle close will dictate if we commit to the setup.
We are looking for a candle that fully breaks above, the structure, With the body close above the structure.
This will be an impulsive move.
We identify a market structure that formed prior to the break, and that will be our entry position.
Be sure to use your hard learnt skills to look for an entry around this area. Which will be our POI.
DXY: Is a Dollar Retracement on the Horizon? On Friday, the U.S. Dollar experienced a pullback after reaching yearly highs above 107.00. Market reactions to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a decline in the likelihood of a potential interest rate cut in December, now estimated at just 60%.
In economic news, retail sales saw a month-over-month increase of 0.4% in October, exceeding analysts' expectations. The dollar has now approached a significant supply zone established in September 2023, suggesting the potential for a price retracement.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail investors remain strongly bullish, while other market participants appear to hold a more neutral to bearish stance. Additionally, seasonal trends indicate a bearish pattern that could persist until the end of January. With the dollar having recently rallied significantly, it is currently in an overbought state.
Despite the dollar's strength, all currencies correlated with the Dollar Index (DXY) continue to face pressure. However, the emergence of a potential reversal candlestick pattern could signal an impending retracement. We will monitor the U.S. dollar index closely for opportunities to enter on the bearish side.
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