Weekly FOREX Forecast: BUY USD vs EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHf JPYThis is an outlook for the week of Nov 11-15th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF and JPY.
The USD is strong and showing no signs of weakness. But price is at the highs, so there is potential for a pullback to start at any time.
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DJ FXCM Index
is this the top?dx1!, dxy, us dolla - is nearing a top.
do with this information what you will, but thought i'd let you know just in case you were wondering.
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it is possible this fifth wave sees an expansion,
and if it does, the situation in the global markets can substantially worsen.
>let's not go there unless we need to.
✌
LMACD suggesting tops around April 2025.According to LMACD histogram , we might see a similar bull market duration ~800 days(green histogram bars). LMACD found tops ~100 days before histogram shift to red bars. This might give us an estimate date of peaks around April 2025? Aligning this with the LGC results in a price target of 150k.
EURUSD broke 13 month Low! Strong long term buy signal.EURUSD hit yesterday 1.0500, a price we last saw 13 months ago on October 13th 2023.
That is the bottom of the Rectangle pattern and it is technically a rare buy opportunity.
Additionally, it appears to be repeating the bearish wave of July - September 2023, which bottomed on step 4 and rebounded above the 0.618 Fibonacci extension.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.09235 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on a Rising Support, thus a Bullish Divergence. That is an additional buy signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USD/JPY Daily Chart AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair is currently moving within an upward channel, demonstrating a steady uptrend since the recent lows around 139.56. The pair has been respecting key Fibonacci retracement levels, which could act as areas of support and resistance.
Key Levels to Watch:
0.236 Fibonacci Retracement (156.67): This level has served as a resistance zone, and a breakout above could pave the way for a test of the recent highs around 157.84.
Support Zones: Immediate support is seen at the 0.382 retracement (153.40), with additional support at the 0.618 level (148.12). A break below the channel could see a retest of these supports.
Indicators & Trends:
Moving Averages: The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are acting as dynamic support levels, supporting the current bullish trend.
Volume: There was a recent increase in volume as the pair rallied, suggesting strong buying interest. However, watch for any drop in volume, as it could signal weakening momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is approaching overbought territory, so caution is advised as the pair nears resistance zones.
Outlook:
The pair may experience consolidation between the 153.40 support and 156.67 resistance levels in the short term. A breakout above 156.67 could lead to a potential test of 157.84 and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below the support trendline may shift momentum towards the downside, targeting lower Fibonacci levels and potentially the key support near 143.88.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Bias: Wait for a confirmed breakout above 156.67, aiming for the 157.84 level.
Bearish Bias : A confirmed break below the channel could signal a trend reversal, with initial targets near 150.75 and 148.12.
Always consider using appropriate risk management.
USDJPY: Buy opportunity inside the 1H MA200 and 4H MA100.USDJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.138, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 50.518) which perfectly explains the Channel Up it's been trading in since October 8th. At the moment the price is on an aggressive bearish wave, which got accelerated today as it was rejected on the 1H MA50. The result is so far a direct hit on the 1H MA200 for the first time since Nov 10th. The last two HL were on the 4H MA100 however, so there is still some more room to fall but even on the current level the reward largely outweighs the risk. We are just over the 0.5 Fibonacci level afterall, which is where the November 5th low was formed. We're long, aiming for a +3.20% rise (TP = 158.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NZSDUSD Bottom of the 1-year Rectangle. Strong buy.The NZDUSD pair gave us a solid sell signal on our last idea (September 04, see chart below) as it respected the 1-year Rectangle pattern, stayed within its Resistance and Support levels and easily hit our 0.6000 Target:
The price hit yesterday the top of the 1-year Support Zone (0.58500) and is reacting today positively with the first green 1D candle in 6 days. The 1D RSI has double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold barrier as on April 14, so we have a strong case for going long with huge reward and limited risk. Notice how we are about to form a 1D Death Cross and the last two such patterns coincided with the bottoms on the Support Zone.
As a result, we are now long, targeting 0.6200, which is considerably below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that all previous Bullish Legs hit.
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US INDEX (DXY) To 99 in 2025hello friends
DXY has reached or a strong daily resistance zone and creating a double TOP and rejection 2 test on trend line gold markets are show u why its dropping technically there is many other things showing weakness in $ from there are Fundamentally also something not going good for $ so we don't miss type of historical moves share Ur thoughts with us
Stay tuned
GBPUSD Start thinking of buying. Will find support soon.The GBPUSD pair couldn't have given us a better sell signal last time we looked into it (October 09, see chart below) as it broke first below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) then the Bullish Megaphone and is very close to our 1.2550 Target:
We are approaching the stage where selling becomes far riskier than buying as the pair is approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the September - October 2023 fractal (that has been the basis of our previous sell strategy), formed the bottom and initiated a Channel Up to the (orange) 0.618 Fib.
Even the 1D MACD indicates that we are probably a few days before this bottom is formed and will be confirmed with a Bullish Cross.
As a result, we are prepared to take this long and target 1.3100 (the 0.618 Fib).
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WTI oil making its way to lowest point of this year?The commodity is near a key are of support right now, so let's see if today's US economic data can continue boosting the US dollar. If so, WTI oil may end up traveling further south.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD TVC:USOIL
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DXY reached the critical resistance zone. H4 15.11.2024 DXY reached the critical resistance zone 📉
Honestly, I didn't think they would push the dollar index to the final zone near 107
without a pullback, but they still did. Now they gave a clear reaction downwards
and it is very possible that the correction has started. Of course, we cannot deny
the possibility of retesting the highs and then continuing the fall, but in general,
the first signs of reversal and culmination have already appeared. It is very desirable
to close the week below 106.30 and then the idea of a false
breakdown of the 2-year highs will be confirmed.
TVC:DXY
USD/JPY Analysis on the 1-Hour ChartIn this analysis of USD/JPY, we are currently observing an uptrend, with buyers maintaining control of the market. A key support zone, marked in green, has been identified as an area where buyers have previously stepped in to push the price higher.
While the price is not currently in this zone, our strategy anticipates a potential pullback to this support level. If the price returns to this green zone, it could attract buyers again, leading to a potential upward movement in line with the prevailing trend.
Trading Plan:
Long Positions: If the price retraces to the green support zone, look for confirmation of buyer interest, such as bullish candlestick patterns, an increase in buying momentum, or positive divergence. These signals could provide an opportunity to enter long positions.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly below the green support zone to manage risk in case the support fails to hold.
Profit Target: The first target would be the previous resistance level or the next significant resistance zone, where sellers may return.
This approach allows us to trade with the trend while maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy. Monitoring the price action closely around the green support zone is crucial for executing this idea effectively.
U.S.Dollar Chart Update !The US dollar recently broke above its descending triangle pattern and is testing a key horizontal supply zone. While it’s challenging this resistance, a potential pullback could still occur. The Ichimoku Cloud beneath provides strong support, reinforcing the bullish structure.
Given the dollar's inverse correlation with crypto, any decisive move could significantly impact broader market trends. Stay alert to shifts in momentum as they may signal changes in the crypto landscape.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and is not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
You can DM us for information on any other coin.
@Peter_CSAdmin
AUD/USD Reaches New Low: Technicals Highlight Bearish TrendThe AUD/USD pair has sunk below 0.65000, hitting a low of 0.64529, reflecting a persistent bearish trend for the Australian dollar. This decline aligns with the strong US dollar index at 106.4 amidst robust post-election performance. The RBA's steady interest rate at 4.35% and lackluster employment growth in Australia indicate ongoing economic pressures that may limit the Aussie’s recovery. Meanwhile, anticipated rate cuts by the Fed could introduce USD vulnerabilities, adding complexity to the pair's future trajectory. Traders should closely monitor economic indicators and central bank policies in both regions for potential market shifts.
DXY: Highly overbought on 1D. Excellent short.The U.S. Dollar Index has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.223, MACD = 0.950, ADX = 43.535) as the current weekly candle is only a few clicks away from the top of the 2 year consolidation Rectangle pattern. Even the 1W RSI (67.108) is about to turn overbought but has already reached the top of the 1 year R1 Zone. All the above create the conditions for the perfect long term short. Our target is the 1W MA200 (TP = 101.750), which supported the price during the bearish wave of July-August.
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USDJPY Bullish Cross on 1W MACD will push it higher.The USDJPY pair is having an excellent bullish run since our September 25 buy signal (see chart below), which was right at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up:
We're approaching our 161.800 long-term Target much faster than we expected but we've identified this time a short-term opportunity that can go along with the long-term one. We are past a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and when the previous Bullish Leg formed one on Aptil 14 2023, the price (which was already within a Channel Up) didn't stop the uptrend. On the contrary it extended it up until a little after a 1D Golden Cross was formed.
As a result we can target additionally 160.000 within a 2-month time-frame.
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DXY (USDOLLAR) - Correction Wave Pending
US Dollar is nearing completing Wave 1 and should go in correction for Wave 2 before loading a big Wave 3. Overall bias is Bullish due to many macro factors. This should provide a clarity on how other pairs will behave.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
What if the USD rally is only just getting started?The USD rally has entered its seventh week and continues to defy its seasonal tendency to weaken in Q4. And that is simply because the macro backdrop 'Trumps' its average performance this time of the year. Today I take a step back to admire the bigger-picture view of the USD index, to show why I think this rally could still just be getting started.
MS
The Impact of Emerging Markets on the Dollar amidst Looming TradThe recent shift in US political landscape has ignited a wave of uncertainty across global markets. A potential escalation of trade tensions with China and other key economies could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for the US dollar and emerging market currencies.
The Dollar's Uncertain Future
The US dollar, long considered a safe-haven asset, faces a crossroads. While a more protectionist stance could initially bolster the dollar's appeal, it could also trigger a chain reaction of economic consequences. Increased tariffs and trade barriers could lead to higher inflation, which could erode the dollar's purchasing power. Moreover, if the US economy weakens as a result of trade disputes, the dollar's demand as a safe-haven currency could diminish.
Emerging Markets in the Crossfire
Emerging market economies, which have often relied on exports to fuel their growth, are particularly vulnerable to escalating trade tensions. A trade war could disrupt global supply chains, increase the cost of imported goods, and reduce demand for emerging market exports. This could lead to currency devaluation, higher inflation, and slower economic growth.
Currency Pegs Under Pressure
Countries that peg their currencies to the US dollar, such as Hong Kong and some Middle Eastern nations, could face significant challenges. If the dollar weakens or strengthens significantly, it could put pressure on these currency pegs, forcing central banks to intervene to maintain the exchange rate. This could deplete foreign exchange reserves and limit monetary policy flexibility.
The Renminbi's Rising Influence
China's renminbi could emerge as a potential beneficiary of a weakened US dollar. As China continues to expand its economic influence and promote the internationalization of its currency, it could become a more attractive alternative to the dollar for global trade and investment. However, a trade war with the US could also negatively impact the renminbi, as it could lead to reduced demand for Chinese exports and capital flight.
Navigating the Uncharted Waters
To mitigate the risks associated with a potential trade war, emerging market economies may need to adopt a combination of strategies. These could include diversifying export markets, promoting domestic consumption, and strengthening financial institutions. Additionally, central banks may need to adjust monetary policy to stabilize currencies and manage inflation.
In conclusion, the potential for increased trade tensions between the US and China could have significant implications for the global economy, the US dollar, and emerging market currencies. While the full impact of these developments remains uncertain, it is clear that businesses, investors, and policymakers around the world will need to closely monitor the situation and adapt their strategies accordingly.