EUR/USD Wedge Breakout (17.2.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0413
2nd Support – 1.0375
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DJ FXCM Index
gold on sellGold (XAU/USD) has retraced above $2,941, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) at $2,947. Currently, we are watching for a pullback above $2,943, which could signal a bearish continuation.
Key Resistance: $2,947 (ATH)
Bearish Confirmation: A rejection from $2,943 could push gold lower.
Sell Entry: Below $2,943 with a target at $2,911.73 or lower.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,950 to manage risk.
Breakout Zone: Below $2,928 could trigger further downside momentum.
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44.
On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
gold on short bullishGold (XAU/USD) saw a strong breakout above $2,904.50 yesterday, confirming bullish momentum. The price is currently in an upward trend, with buyers pushing toward $2,928.60 as the next key resistance. However, the overall market structure suggests potential bearish pressure if key support levels fail.
Key Levels to Watch:
Buy Entry: Above $2,915.99 (Buy stop order)
Take Profit (TP): $2,922 – $2,928.60
Stop Loss (SL): $2,906 (A break below this invalidates bullish bias)
Bearish Breakdown Zone: Below $2,906, with targets below $2,900
Bullish Scenario:
If XAU/USD holds above $2,915.99, expect a push toward $2,922, and if momentum continues, $2,928.60 could be tested.
Buyers remain in control above $2,906, and dips may be seen as buying opportunities.
Bearish Scenario:
A break below $2,906 could lead to bearish reform, triggering a drop below $2,900.
If sellers dominate, we may see extended declines toward $2,890 or lower.
Emerging Markets Are Breaking Higher; Be Aware Of Lower USDollarEmerging markets, represented by the EEM chart, have been trending lower since October 2024 in what appears to be a complex W-X-Y corrective pattern. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a strong rally, driven by Trump’s victory in the US elections. However, the rally formed a wedge pattern, which suggests that its upside momentum may be coming to an end.
Why is the correlation between EEM and DXY important? If the Trump administration pushes oil prices lower, inflation expectations could also decline. This would likely lead to lower interest rates, which in turn could weigh on the USD. In such a scenario, capital may flow out of the US and into emerging markets.
Now that EEM is recovering and breaking above a key channel resistance, it signals that bullish momentum is returning. If this trend continues on EEM to 2024 highs, then DXY could decline to the 105–103 range—or possibly even as low as 100.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – February 18, 2025Trend : Gold is in a strong uptrend, trading within a rising channel.
The price has consistently respected the green trendline (support).
Higher highs and higher lows confirm bullish momentum.
Key Levels:
Support: $2,750, $2,650 (major swing lows)
Resistance: $2,950, $3,000 (psychological level)
Technical Patterns:
There are multiple bullish breakouts from consolidation zones, marked by red resistance trendlines. The recent breakout above $2,850 suggests a continuation toward $3,000.
Ascending channel formation with a possible breakout to $3,250 in the long term.
Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is riding the upper band, showing strong buying pressure.
Momentum: Continues to favor bulls unless there’s a breakdown below $2,850.
1-Hour Chart (Second Image) Analysis
Short-Term Trend:
Gold recently retested support around $2,880 and is consolidating.
Price is trading above the green trendline, maintaining a bullish structure.
Bearish Pullback Areas:
The bearish wick at $2,940 suggests rejection from strong resistance.
A break below $2,880 may signal a temporary correction toward $2,850.
Key Intraday Levels:
Support: $2,880, $2,850
Resistance: $2,940, $3,000
Possible Setups:
Breakout Buy: Above $2,940 → Target $3,000.
Support Buy: Around $2,880–$2,850 with stop loss below $2,840.
Short-term Sell: If price rejects $2,940 again, targeting $2,880.
Trading Ideas & Strategy
1. Swing Trading (Daily Chart Perspective)
Long Entry: Buy on a pullback near $2,850–$2,880, targeting $3,000–$3,250.
Stop Loss: Below $2,820.
2. Intraday Trading (1H Chart)
Buy: If price reclaims $2,940 → Target $3,000.
Sell: If price rejects $2,940 again → Target $2,880 with a stop loss at $2,955.
3. Risk Management
Keep SL tight (~$20-$30 range) due to Gold’s volatility.
Use trailing stop loss to secure profits as price moves higher.
Conclusion
Bullish Trend Dominates: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, and as long as it holds above $2,850–$2,880, buying dips remains the best approach.
Short-term Rejections Possible: If resistance at $2,940 holds, a small pullback may happen before another push higher.
Long-term Target: $3,000–$3,250 remains achievable in the coming weeks if bulls maintain control.
EUR USD Trade Setup 4 hour timeframe Following last week's setup, we will continue to look for buying opportunities on
EURUSD.
The market remains in a bullish trend, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe, confirming upward momentum.
So lets wait for price to pullback to the Higher Low level then looking for entry confirmation.
The market is forming a bullish break and retest pattern
USDCAD Oversold bounce incoming.USDCAD is trading inside a Channel Up.
February's price action has so far been a strong rejection of the price near the Channel Up top with the price dropping even below the MA50 (1d).
This is very similar to the last Channel Up Top on October 13th 2022, which first dropped to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and then bounced to the 0.236.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.44750 (the 0.236 Fib).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is almost oversold, which also favors buying. In fact it got rejected and currently is on the exact same levels it did in September - October 2022.
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AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of RBA DesicionThe Australian dollar has been rising, gaining around 1.5% over the past three sessions against the U.S. dollar. The current bullish movement continues as the market awaits the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision in the coming hours. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points , bringing the new rate to 4.1%.
However, the market has already priced in this decision, as expectations for a rate cut have been consistent for several days. This has allowed upward momentum to persist, as any bearish reaction to the RBA's move may have already been absorbed into the price.
Additionally, as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates, Australia's economic ties with China have strengthened, boosting confidence in the region and supporting a bullish outlook for the Australian dollar.
Breakout from Sideways Range
Until recently, AUD/USD had been trading within a key range, with resistance at 0.62923 and support at 0.61929. But the recent bullish move has broken through this resistance, leading to stronger buying pressure in the short term.
As long as price remains above the upper boundary of this range, the Australian dollar could maintain its upward momentum in the near term.
RSI Indicator: Overbought Signals?
Not everything is bullish, as the RSI indicator is now approaching 70, the overbought zone.
If the RSI remains above this level for the next few sessions, it could signal an imbalance between buyers and sellers, as well as the potential for short-term selling corrections.
Key Levels to Watch:
0.61929 – Distant Support: Lower boundary of the previous range.
Frequent price oscillations at this level could revive the previous downtrend seen since September 2024.
0.62923 – Key Support: Aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A tentative level where short-term bearish corrections could occur.
0.64323 – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the bullish bias pushes price toward this level, it could signal the beginning of a stronger uptrend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
USD/MXN Nears Critical Support LevelOver the past four trading sessions, USD/MXN has declined by more than 2% in favor of the Mexican peso. The current bearish move has brought the price closer to the lower boundary of the existing sideways range seen on the chart.
This recent selling pressure has been driven by mixed U.S. inflation data released last week and the lack of volatility in the U.S. dollar due to the U.S. holiday, allowing the peso to dominate the market in the short term.
Sideways Range Holds
At the moment, USD/MXN continues to trade within a well-defined neutral range between the 20.90332 resistance level and the 20.09472 support level.
So far, the bearish momentum has been strong enough to push the price closer to the key support zone, and as long as selling pressure persists, there is a higher likelihood of a downside breakout in the short term.
MACD Indicator
Currently, both the MACD lines and the histogram are crossing the neutral 0 level.
This could signal the start of fresh bearish strength if price action remains below this level in the coming sessions.
Selling pressure may gain further relevance as the histogram moves further away from the neutral zone.
TRIX Indicator
For the first time in months, the TRIX indicator is consistently approaching the 0 neutral level , reinforcing bearish dominance in the short term.
If the TRIX crosses below 0, the moving average bias could shift fully bearish, strengthening the peso’s momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
20.90332 – Key Resistance:
Major resistance level, marking the highest price levels reached in recent months.
A return to this level would confirm a recovery of bullish sentiment, reinforcing the current sideways channel.
20.43791 – Near-Term Resistance:
Coincides with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period moving average.
If the price retraces to this level, it could invalidate the current bearish pressure and open the door for a potential upside correction.
20.09472 – Critical Support:
Lower boundary of the current range.
If sellers break below this level, it could confirm the start of a new downtrend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
EURUSD About to turn bearish again on Double StructureThe EURUSD pair has been on a Bullish Leg since the February 09 Low and is approaching the January 27 High, which is its technical Resistance level. Technically, every such test has been rejected down to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci level but since we might be within a Channel Up, it is possible to see one last push to complete a +2.68% rise from the February 09 Low.
The 0.786 Fib then will fall below the Channel Up so to account for that technical miss of support, our Target will be the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.03125.
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Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 107.51
1st Support: 105.72
1st Resistance: 109.67
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DXY Weekly Chart: "The Bull-trap Breakout"The US Dollar Index is currently positioned at the top of its trading range, which has been in play since 2023 on the weekly timeframe. This presents a solid bearish setup, as the index is likely to reverse and trade back into the range.
This trade idea has been in play since September of 2024 when we were still trading at the BOTTOM of the rang e
I see an upward movement in this game from the green zone.We have finished the downtrend and are starting a bullish position. I expect a return to the green zone in the post.
The divergence in volume is so high that we will definitely reach the green zone.
For the uptrend, we also have 3 ceilings at the beginning of the trend, which is very good for a return to the top.
tp3.5%
sl1.2%
Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 17-21This is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index ran the previous weekly low Friday, capping off another bearish week. With the USD weakening on mixed fundamental news, its currency counterparts are taking advantage of the opportunity to outperform the USD.
Look for the majors to potentially move higher vs the USD this week.
Be mindful there is a lot of red folder news items coming up for the week ahead, to include FOMC on Wednesday.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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DEVIATON INJIt looks like we have a deviation below the demand zone and the $13.8 support, which could present a buying opportunity.
I’m waiting to see if the price finds support around $14.4.
If the price drops below $14 and stays there for an extended period, I’ll reassess the trade, as we could see another leg down toward the $8-$11 zone, where stronger support is likely.
For now, the weekly oscillators look decent—Stoch RSI is close to a bullish cross, and RSI has found support at 40.