FOREX Forecast UPDATES! Monday Mar 3rdIn this video, we will update Sunday's forecasts for the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
DJ FXCM Index
GLOBAL RECESSION IS COMING!The chart provided depicts the **US Dollar Index (USDOLLAR)** on a monthly timeframe, highlighting a bearish outlook. The analysis suggests a significant downturn in the value of the US dollar, which could have profound implications for the global economy. Here's a breakdown of how this scenario could lead to a global recession:
Key Observations:
1. Lower High Formation : The chart shows a lower high forming after a previous peak, signaling potential weakness in the dollar's long-term trend. This aligns with bearish market structure, indicating that sellers are gaining control.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) : The annotation mentions that a "Monthly FVG" has been respected. FVGs are imbalances in price action often revisited before continuing the prevailing trend. In this case, the FVG rejection reinforces the bearish continuation.
3. Projected Downtrend: The red arrow projects a steep decline in the US dollar's value, suggesting a collapse or sharp devaluation over the coming months or years.
Implications for a Global Recession:
1. Weaker Dollar and Global Trade : As the world's primary reserve currency, a collapse in the US dollar would disrupt global trade and financial systems. Countries heavily reliant on dollar-denominated trade or debt would face increased costs and financial instability.
2. Debt Crisis in Emerging Markets: Many emerging economies hold significant amounts of US dollar-denominated debt. A devalued dollar could lead to capital flight, higher borrowing costs, and defaults, triggering financial crises in these regions.
3. Commodity Price Volatility : Since commodities like oil and gold are priced in dollars, a sharp decline in its value could lead to extreme volatility in commodity markets, further destabilizing economies dependent on imports or exports of these goods.
4. Investor Panic and Market Sell-Offs : A collapsing dollar would likely trigger panic in global financial markets. Investors may flee to other safe-haven assets like gold or cryptocurrencies, leading to sharp declines in equity markets worldwide.
5. Global Economic Contraction: With trade disruptions, financial instability, and market volatility, global economic growth would slow significantly. Central banks might struggle to stabilize their economies due to reduced policy effectiveness amid currency turmoil.
Conclusion:
The chart's bearish projection for the US dollar suggests that its collapse could act as a catalyst for widespread economic instability, potentially leading to a global recession. This scenario underscores the interconnectedness of currencies, trade, and financial markets in shaping economic outcomes worldwide.
EURUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
With the Friday's turmoil in the White House,
EURUSD went down sharply.
The price broke and closed below a significant daily support.
It is a strong event that increases the probabilities that the market
will continue going lower.
Next support will be 1.032
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GBP/USD Trendline Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3 - 7)The GBP/USD Pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2425
2nd Support – 1.2316
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USD/JPY Channel Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3-7)The USD/JPY pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 153.90
2nd Resistance – 155.60
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USD/CHF Wedge Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3-7)The USD/CHF pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.9138
2nd Resistance – 0.9221
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"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
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EUR/USD: Is History Repeating? Key Levels to Watch NowHey Realistic Traders, Will FX:EURUSD Repeat its Bearish Cycle? Let’s dive into the analysis...
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading below the 200-day EMA once again, signaling that the bearish trend is still in play. This downward movement has been reinforced by a rising wedge breakout, a common pattern that often leads to further declines.
Just a few days ago, we spotted a similar bearish breakout in FX:EURUSD , which resulted in a continued drop. As traders, we follow the Dow Theory principle: "History Repeats Itself ." Based on this idea, we expect the price to follow the same pattern, keeping the bearish momentum intact.
Looking ahead, EUR/USD could move lower toward the first target at 1.02861 and, if selling pressure continues, potentially reach the second target at 1.02205. These targets are based on previous price movements and key historical support levels.
However, this bearish scenario depends on the price staying below the critical stop-loss level at Stop Loss 1.05039
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Disclaimer: “Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on FX:EURUSD ”.
USDJPY - BULLISH SCENARIOHello Traders !
On Thursday 20 FEB, The USDJPY reached the support level (149.356 - 148.639) and failed to break it !
So, We have a bullish scenario:
If the price breaks and closes above the lower high (150.733 - 150.469),
We will see a bullish move🚀
_______________
TARGET: 153.700🎯
BTC still on bearish movement#BTCUSD on bearish retracment, price is still bearish till 73800 which have bullish reverse.
Firstly we need to see price to break below 79300 which is sell stop on #BTC sell, Target 76k-73800.
Below 73800 holds bullish retracment which will push the price above 81k-82k for new confirmation.
Price bullish on #BTC is not valid yet.
XAG/USD - Wedge Breakout (Weekly Forecast Feb 24-28)The XAG/USD Pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 31.25
2nd Support – 30.67
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Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 107.09
1st Support: 106.64
1st Resistance: 108.04
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USD/JPY Market Analysis – Potential Reversal or Continuation?This 15-minute chart of USD/JPY displays a clear bullish impulse following a Change of Character (ChoCh) and a Break of Structure (BoS) . Price action has reached a key resistance zone, and traders are now anticipating the next move based on market reactions.
Key Observations :
1. Change of Character (ChoCh) :
- This indicates a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
- The market rejected lower prices and started forming higher highs and higher lows.
2. b]Break of Structure (BoS) :
- This confirms bullish momentum as previous resistance levels are broken.
- A strong bullish move suggests demand is dominating.
3. Current Price Action :
- The price has approached a liquidity zone (previous high).
- Potential rejection at this level suggests profit-taking or a shift in order flow.
Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Continuation :
- If price retraces into the M15 demand zone (marked on the chart) and finds support, a continuation to the upside is likely.
- A break above the current high could push price towards 149.950 or even 150.000.
❌ Bearish Reversal :
- If price aggressively rejects the current high and breaks the M15 demand zone , we could see a bearish move towards **149.100 - 148.900**.
- This would indicate a deeper correction or potential trend reversal.
Trading Plan:
- **Wait for confirmation at the M15 demand zone.**
- **Look for bullish price action signals for continuation trades.**
- **If demand fails, shift bias to bearish setups.**
📌 Conclusion :
USD/JPY is at a critical decision point. The next move will depend on whether buyers defend the demand zone or if sellers step in to drive price lower. Stay patient and react to market structure shifts accordingly. 🚀📉
EUR/USD - H1- Chart - Ascending Triangle (27.02.2025) The EUR/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0433
2nd Support – 1.0405
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XAUUSD - 1hr | Wyckoff Event UPDATEWe await the price to confirm the last step (6) to complete the distribution Phase. The price has fallen to SUPPORT as we predicted. Once a LOWER LOWER is formed, the Distribution Phase is complete. Expect gold turn to remain bearish. Falling as low as 2815.
BULLS :
If the price can respect the support and bounce back above 2910 with strong bullish momentum, we can see the price rally back up to the 2950 area.
BEARS :
If the price creates the lower low as we are expecting around 2860-2880. Then look for the price to:
1. retest support as far back up to 2910.
2. dramatically fall and continue its pullback as low as 2800-2820
USDJPY - JPY strength continues below 152.20 The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) as market expectations for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes gain momentum. This has reinforced a bearish sentiment in the USDJPY currency pair, which remains aligned with the prevailing longer-term downtrend.
From a technical perspective, 152.50 serves as a key resistance level, marking the recent swing high. A potential oversold rally towards this level, followed by a rejection, could reinforce the bearish outlook, with downside targets at 149.30, followed by 147.80 and 147.20 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 152.50, coupled with a sustained daily close above this level, would invalidate the bearish bias. This could shift momentum toward the upside, opening the possibility for further rallies, with resistance levels at 154.30 and 155.70 acting as potential upside targets. The price action around the 152.50 level remains pivotal in determining the next directional move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD: Sell trigger on the 4H MA50EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.966, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 17.727) as the price turned sideways in the past 2 weeks. The 4H MA50 is acting as the support of this Channel Up pattern. Even though the price hasn't yet made a technical HH, the 4H RSI is on a LH bearish divergence like the Jan 27th high. The signal to sell then came when the price closed a candle under the 4H MA50. If it happens again, the top will most likely be in, so go short and target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 1.02800).
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btc still bearish#BTCUSD, price have break below the main range which needs correction.
We hope to see price reaching 84k-82k but firstly double breakout below 87600 will drop the price there and stop loss at 88600.
Above 89300 holds bearish zone but if price multiple reverse there possible 91k will retest back.
gold on double breakout#XAUUSD, today on price we hope to see reverse back above 2938 but firstly price holds multiple entry's for bullish breakout.
Firstly above the rectangle 2918-2920 breakout we hope to see the current candle H1 to breakout there which holds strong buy.
If price decline between 2916 without touching 2918 then the price is possible to fall from there back below 2988.
But below 2908 holds bullish if no current move above 2916 then bullish can start from 2908, TP 2938, SL 2896.