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Usdollaranalysis

US-DOLLAR really falling after NFPs? I doubt it.Hey tradomaniacs, chaotic market huh? To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense. I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold. The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation. Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst result since december 2020. This clearly shows a cool down in the NFP-Sector and is overall bearish for the US-Dollar. Unemployment Rate: 3,9% and a positive development considering that previous rate has been at 4,2%. Overall bullish fort he US-Dollar. Average hourly earnings: 0,6% and way higher compared to the previous month. This is overall bullish for the US-DOLLAR due to higher inflation. Average weekly hours: 34,7 and less than expected. The problem here in my opinion is the fact that earnings per hour soared while less jobs were created. This is a typical sign of inflation and part oft he wage-price-spiral. Considering that FED has to and will fight inflation as its priority number one after their „transitory-fail“ to gain back reputation Jerome Powell & Co could turn from best friends to fiends for the stockmarket as financial injections probably won`t be an option anymore, whether the economy cools down or not. This is clearly negative for the overvalued equity-market but not by all means for the US-Dollar. Simply put: The FEDs in a quandra. Can`t provide more liquidity due to high inflation to push growth and employment and has to hope everything is going to be fine. Rising yields do indicate expectations for higher inflation in the market and would offer an alterantive to stocks in the near future (Bonds). They are also generally good for the bank-sector and obviously not good for tecs due to high costs which are not as easier to finance with higher interest-rates. But here is a catch.. we know how irrational but faithful the market is... if it turns out the market hopes the FED to ignore their plans and "slow it down" in order to boost the economy again if future results are not as good as expected we might see another rally in stocks and so a falling US-Dollar. This would be more like the less likely scenario in my opinion...I mean Bidens is on Powells tail. Risk-Off is generally good for the US-DOLLAR as a safe haven. If FED continues as announced and planned the US-Dollar is likely to move up while this move turns out to be a fake. One of these charts is lying, but I see a higher probabillity of a rising US-Dollar under these circumstances. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
TVC:US10YLong
by Trading2ez
3
DXY create Head & Shoulder Pattern.So, SELL NOW.... DXY chart short term create heat and shoulder pattern. So market down to 93.920 & 93.600 zone. If the market break out 94.500 resistance level then this case is invalid. AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad.
TVC:DXYShort
by AronnoFx
US-DOLLAR possible RALLY!Hey tradomaniacs, So... the market was waiting for Powell and got the so called "Nothing Burger". Powells Key-Notes: 1️⃣ Clear progress towards foll employment. 2️⃣ Could be appropriate to begin with tapering this year. „My view is that the „substantial further progress“ test has been met for inflation. There has also been clear progress toward maximum employment. At the FOMC’s recent July meeting, I was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year.“ 3️⃣ Dovish: The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff. 4️⃣ Inflation has reached 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. So what did we get here? Well the market with a drastic sell-off of the US-Dollar and indicies rallied due to the hope that liquidity will still be provided, probably because the market has expected to see tapering until Q1 of 2022 and has priced that in. However, for me personally all this is not really a dovish, more like a mixed statement that has dissapointed US-Bulls as things are not progressing as fast as expected. If data from the U.S. are good this week we could see more US-DOLLAR bulls taking action to push price up. I will keep it slow this today as we get to see the Non-Farm-Payrolls, which will probably have a very strong impact in the market as market-players will evaluate the probabillity of more hawkish statements in the future. We have often see strong moves after these vacuous statements which then got reversed quickly within a few days, which is why I want to observe price-action first also because the dovish news have pushed many pairs into resistance-zones and so good spots to follow the current trends. Example: AUD/USD 👉https://www.tradingview.com/x/FqcCdCbO/ LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
TVC:DXY
by Trading2ez
2
USDOLLARIt appears the usd has some room to run still until it reaches a higher time frame resistance area. I expect a volatile week because of significant event risk. inflation and J Powell is on the docket. In my opinion. To start the week, I expect the dollar to continue to fall towards near term support. The usd is vulnerable under 11850.00,in my opinion, and may retest the main support lower down on a break down of said price level. In the event inflation comes in hotter than expected we may see a run up to test the " key price area" i have outlined. Then it all depends on Powell"s statement for the determination for a possible break out of the range or drop back down under 11850. Never the less, the upside seems limited, as there is, what appears to be strong resistance higher up.
DJ:USDOLLARLong
by Entrenched
2
USDCAD COUNTER TREND TRADE LONGUSDCAD has for the long term been on a bearish decline, however price has struggled more recently to break below an area of support, rejecting this area on two prior occasions. Based on the close of Fridays candle we can see that price seems to be rejecting this area for the third time. Having broke back above an intraday level of resistance on the 1 hour, I would now like price to retest this area and continue upwards to my area of major resistance, although there are some obstacles in the way for price to get through.
Long
by Too_Ray1
US DOLLAR - The Ending Diagonal Count - Wave iv In ProgressHere I apply the same ending diagonal count as the EURUSD, this market has slightly different waves but still the same thing. The main difference here is the distance left until it reaches the lower channel. No it becomes even more obvious that the US Dollar is very close to completing the Wave 2 correction since 2009. The reason for the channel is because I am expecting Wave E to be similar in length as Wave C. If it's not screamingly obvious what is happening here then you probably need to check out the related ideas below which are all related to the US Dollar so you can begin joining the dots. Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave