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Usdollarlong

The march to an inevitable North American world hegemony is ...... picking up pace. - A lot, lately! TLTR The war in the Ukraine was essentially over the day it began. Now, with western interests notably starting to fade, it will start to make it's way to the back pages of daily reportage. Why was this even an issue of US interests, to begin with? ... Washington had this far fetched dream - although, not entirely without historical bases - to create a Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian superstate , entirely funded on US interests, unifying over 80 million people, populating 5 million square kilometers, right up against the Russian Federation and China's western sphere of interests. Nice try! The real problem with this wishful thinking is multi-fold. While those above mentioned peoples do have a lot of similarities in culture, language and historically undesirable (for them) outcomes, the facts remain the same; - Ukrainians do not play well with others! Notably one of the most chauvinist cultures, their mistreatment of minorities is (or should be!) rapidly becoming legendary, the largest of which are the Poles; - "My enemy's (i.e. Russia) enemy is my friend." - As incredibly profound as that may sound, it also makes for extremely unstable, impossible to maintain alliances; - The Organization of Turkic States (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey) do have a lot to say about this and, not surprisingly, they do not approve - to say the least; - Then there is Turkey (a regional super power) which, not in the least, together with China, had managed nothing less than to broker a piece between Iran and Saudi Arabia; In summary, a now defacto Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Turkish coalition is enough to make even the United States to stop and think twice what it's wisest next step may be, in the region. OK, so no big deal. The US blew ~7% of it's annual defense budget on this still-born idea but, since it can, will likely call it a day , in the very near future. The EU , which is essentially nothing more than a German franchise, is looking at it's End of Days . The German industrial base managed to go 0-3, much like on the two previous occasions when they fielded their dream team , an outcome that is all but inevitable. Any doubt?! ... Just this week Volkswagen and BASF both announced that they are "considering to explore their North American options with regard to future investments". That is the German Industrial Base ! - Apparently looking to seek asylum in the US. German infrastructure and industry, which took over 30 years to build, only took two(2) short years to gut and to irreversibly break apart. No shock, there. Germans always had to be the best at whatever was the vogue of the day and clearly, self-mutilation and ultimately, economic suicide, not being an exception. (I spent a lot of time in Germany and to get a Wifi signal - cellular or otherwise -, the quality and frequency is right up there with Lebanon's. German pensioners blow their retirements on turtle neck sweaters because state sanctioned energy cut-backs simply turn off their central heating in the middle of January. The fastest growing manufacturing sector, as of right now, is wood-burning stoves! - The effect of which on the lumber industry is interesting, in itself but that's a whole other conversation.) Germany's largest trading partner is China! (40% of exports.) Chine is notably not found of the present, vigorous German ra-ra which would have the average mainstream news consumer believe that Kiev has won the war last christmas and that right now, Polish troops are storming the walls of the Kremlin, under German leadership. E.g. China, ultimately, does have an awful lot of pull in the case of German foreign policy and, lately, Beijing's patience appears to be wearing thin. Long story short; "It's been nice signing with you Coco, but it's over!" - Bet on it! China is dying! (Present tense.) As stated previously, the inescapable reality of a demographic collapse - it's first, truly major wave - is descending on China at the time of this writing. A total of 1/2 (50%) of China's population will not celebrate New Years Eve, 2035! - Leaving about 800 Million de-industrialized, de-urbanized, subsistence farmers in it's wake, by the middle of the next decade. As rapid extinctions go, this one is for the books. (As a personal reflection perhaps of mild interest, I have spent some time in the Mekong Delta, planting rice - just to see what it's all about. Afterwards I can safely state that there is no more expensive crop or an other, more soul-sucking, endlessly laborious occupation than rice farming! As for automation? ... What automation?! - It will never happen! To grow rice is a 24/7, all out battle with Nature, which uses up every living thing - including people and the environment - in a merciless fashion. I, personally, would much rather go back to pyramid building, as one of the slaves. My point being; Can anyone imagine china without rice? - ) In short, if there ever was a sure thing , this is it! (Feel free to do the rest of the math - i.e. a world without China.) Now, having argued why "everyone dies, except for the USA" , that, of course, is not the same as all of them will walk off into the sunset with a whimper . (Although, under the circumstances, even that isn't very far fetched.) Who will be able to muster at least a last, dying spasm, is yet to be seen but if it happens it will be violent! Be prepared! "Crises take much longer to unfold and run much deeper than anyone would expect." All that is outlined above is already happening (no more "unfolding" ) and perhaps with traders' typically myopic view, a lot that is about to hit the fan could seem "unexpected", at that moment. Don't be caught off guard! Trade it with the lay-of-the-land in mind and make the most of what promises to be a once in many-generation opportunity. EUR/USD Short Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); USD/CNH Long Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); US Equities & Treasuries over any off-shore, Bias p.s. The US of A still maintains marginally beneficial demographics, with no near term dangers on the horizon. On the top of that, it also boast one of the few optimally dispersed populations - from a systemic point of view. E.g. "Globalization", in reality, is just a less pointed pseudonym for US world hegemony.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
8
DXY road to 92, SHORT THE USDThe PetroYUAN is competing with the petroDOLLAR now and is causing concerns amongst the US economy. As BRICS gather forces and continues growing as oil rich countries are also joining forces with BRICS to fight against the petroDOLLAR. Other economic factors why the DYX is looking weak are: -Inflation: High inflation can erode the value of a currency, as it reduces the purchasing power of consumers and investors. If the US experiences sustained high inflation, it could weaken the US dollar even if interest rates are high. -Economic growth: If the US economy is not growing as quickly as other economies, it could lead to a relative decline in the value of the US dollar. This could be exacerbated if other economies are experiencing strong growth and higher interest rates. -Geopolitical risks: Political instability, trade tensions, and military conflicts can all increase risk and uncertainty, which can lead investors to sell US dollars and seek safer assets. If the US is perceived as a less stable or secure country, it could weaken the US dollar. -Debt levels: High levels of debt can make a country more vulnerable to economic shocks and reduce its ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. If the US experiences a sharp increase in debt levels, it could weaken the US dollar. -Market sentiment: Investor sentiment can be influenced by a wide range of factors, including news events, social media, and market psychology. If investors become pessimistic about the US economy or the prospects for the US dollar, it could lead to a decline in demand for US dollars and a weaker currency.
TVC:DXYShort
by CryptoGao1
4
US100 Long for Monday Good Day traders. So as the week passes by with a nice bull move of 7.20% for the week, i am still looking at a long Bullish move to our zone 2 or past it to the high of our fib. We might still see a retracement back to my zone 1 where we see a clear previous support and resistance level. If this support is rejected i will be looking for buys if it has a breakout then i will be waiting for the retest of resistance and i would then be looking to go short. But overall i think we are looking bullish.
ULong
by Edrich_jvr
2
BITCOIN 2022Hello dear traders, I hope you had a nice rest and weekend, currently in a few hours we are starting a new trading week, so let's take a look! BItcoin has been setting the trend for us in the last few months, especially during the Asian session when there were always the highest trading volumes which of course then set the trend. Since last weekends significant weekly trend setting came during the first Asian session of the new week we can now see what this week will be like and if the Asians can give us a clue as to how to direct our trades. Bitcoin overall last year which has been all down has become the most traded over Asian time and the whales there have been sending bitcoin lower for a long time. How next ? I have one simple opinion UNLESS THE FED START PRINTING MONEY AGAIN, THE BEAR MARKET WILL NOT END, WE MAY SEE A SHORT-TERM TREND BUT NOT A BULL MARKET !!! I THINK WE REALLY NEED TO FORGET ABOUT CYCLE ADOPTION AND ALL SUCH FUNDAMENTALS AND ESPECIALLY CHART INDICATORS AND THINK ABOUT WHY EVERYTHING IS PROBABLY DOWN. If we look not far into the past we find that BTC had already reacted to one single thing earlier in the last bearmarket and ran up when the nasty but mighty stop loss hunter Jerome Powell said enough is enough and started printing money again because interest rates were high and people were already going crazy. This tells you very simply that high interest rates do not have an acute negative effect on stock markets, in the past years stocks only started falling when interest rates were already high as they are now and we have been going down for a year! The current problem of the US dollar, that is, the advantage problem it has for cryptocurrencies. consists of a very simple thing and that is quantitative tightening, simplistically, pulling printed money out of the market. IF UGLY POWELL DOESN'T TURN HIS MACHINE ON, THERE WILL BE NO BOTTOM!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Crypto-Frantisek
3
AUD/USD might fall significantly to 2020 loweAustralian inflation surpassed estimates in the third quarter, reaching a 32-year high, and the Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates again to battle inflationary pressures. Rising rent and fuel prices were the primary causes of the reading being higher than expected, as Australia grappled with high borrowing rates and rising commodity prices. Food costs rose dramatically throughout the quarter due to a mix of supply chain issues and harvest-related adverse weather. According to the bank, it's trying to find a balance between limiting the negative consequences of high interest rates on the economy and controlling inflation. It hiked rates seven times this year from record lows and declared that future rate hikes will be data-driven. The pressure on AUD/USD is expected to continue. In light of this, Credit Suisse economists predict that the pair may plunge to a 2020 low of 0.5506. A steeper decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate is anticipated. We anticipate a decline to the bottom from April 2020 at 0.6041/5978 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/21 upswing as long as medium-term momentum continues to be bearish. While another little halt is possible, a convincing break lower would increase the likelihood of a fall all the way to 0.5506, the 2020 bottom. "Any effort at a stronger move higher should be restrained at the sliding 55-day average of 0.6651."
Short
by TradeyMarkets
XAU/USD declines from $1,670 in the face of a turbulent DXYThe price of gold has fallen significantly since it crossed the $1,670.00 barrier. The US dollar index (DXY) has become extremely volatile due to rumors that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened in the FX markets to strengthen the Japanese yen, which has put some fair selling pressure on the precious metal. The Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at their meeting in November, according to Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). However, Monday's news that North and South Korea had fired warning shots at each other along their disputed western maritime border also appeared to have helped recent US dollar purchases. Concerns that Chinese President Xi Jinping would not hesitate to intensify geopolitical issues with the US when it comes to Taiwan may be on the same lines. The third consecutive victory for Jinping at the annual Communist Party Congress may have contributed to the cause. Future gold price declines are anticipated due to uncertain market conditions and challenges to sentiment.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by TradeyMarkets
WTI: Crude oil prices are impacted by a dimming demand outlook.Despite limiting its highest daily gains in a week, WTI crude oil remains in a flat trend. US government representatives have stated that they are prepared to release 15 million barrels of oil from SPR. In contrast to repurchasing shares and paying dividends, according to Biden, oil firms should increase output and lower gasoline costs. He said, “My message to the American energy companies is this: You should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends. Not now. Not while a war is raging,” Biden said. “You should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining.” Since the beginning of the year, the White House has released approximately 165 million barrels of petroleum from the reserve, out of a total estimated to be over 180 million. This means the demand is diminishing. However, if price manages to trade, break and close above 86.55 the setups would be invalidated making the bulls take charge.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by TradeyMarkets
2