USDEUR Long term ideaLong term USD/EUR idea.
Cycles are up for the dollar until June, but are down again after that until end of the year.
It will be volitility and that will creat opportunity.
I play FXE often when trading the EURO, and i trade inversely correlated instruments to the dollar to trade aginst it.
Example Dollar goes up, gold goes down or Gold goes up dollar goes down. Same with many commodities priced in dollars.
Usdollarlong
DXY to rise up to %15 in the next year or so?I am attempting to call a bottom here on the DXY, time will tell but we have some pretty good reasons to believe that the action will start soon. UVXY is moving up , stocks are getting hammered and thus I think this bull flag formation could play out well. Momentum and rsi moving up potentially and smart money could be buying as well. Target is the extension of the flag pole. Not financial advice, DYOR.
DXY - Long Term ViewDXY (USDOLLAR) has definitely broken out bullishly, its just the question how bullish is it?
I think I have found where the bulls want to go.
The cancel emoji is the target. This completes the pattern that can be seen with the other cancel emoji and the hand down emoji being in the middle.
This is all along the thick white diagonal line which wants to be hit by the bulls as indicated by the green bars pattern.
USDOLLAR - Triangle Leading to ContinuationRed dashed line showing a resistance that has recently turned into a support with a strong move upwards
Strong green line showing a strong uptrend
These come together nicely forming a triangle
I expect this to lead to further bullish continuation along the green line as price progresses, as suggested by the green bars pattern
BITCOIN 2022Hello dear traders, I hope you had a nice rest and weekend, currently in a few hours we are starting a new trading week, so let's take a look!
BItcoin has been setting the trend for us in the last few months, especially during the Asian session when there were always the highest trading volumes which of course then set the trend.
Since last weekends significant weekly trend setting came during the first Asian session of the new week we can now see what this week will be like and if the Asians can give us a clue as to how to direct our trades.
Bitcoin overall last year which has been all down has become the most traded over Asian time and the whales there have been sending bitcoin lower for a long time. How next ? I have one simple opinion
UNLESS THE FED START PRINTING MONEY AGAIN, THE BEAR MARKET WILL NOT END, WE MAY SEE A SHORT-TERM TREND BUT NOT A BULL MARKET !!!
I THINK WE REALLY NEED TO FORGET ABOUT CYCLE ADOPTION AND ALL SUCH FUNDAMENTALS AND ESPECIALLY CHART INDICATORS AND THINK ABOUT WHY EVERYTHING IS PROBABLY DOWN.
If we look not far into the past we find that BTC had already reacted to one single thing earlier in the last bearmarket and ran up when the nasty but mighty stop loss hunter Jerome Powell said enough is enough and started printing money again because interest rates were high and people were already going crazy.
This tells you very simply that high interest rates do not have an acute negative effect on stock markets, in the past years stocks only started falling when interest rates were already high as they are now and we have been going down for a year! The current problem of the US dollar, that is, the advantage problem it has for cryptocurrencies. consists of a very simple thing and that is quantitative tightening, simplistically, pulling printed money out of the market.
IF UGLY POWELL DOESN'T TURN HIS MACHINE ON, THERE WILL BE NO BOTTOM!!
Long the US Dollar Again pertaining to the Macro environment, it is a good idea to be on the long dollar side of things.
More importantly is the set up based on the long duration. The Reward Risk on this one is not the best but that's because this will be one of the long term foundational holds.
Keep in tune for our instructions on moving the stop loss to a more favorable position once this market starts to move our way.
AUD/USD might fall significantly to 2020 loweAustralian inflation surpassed estimates in the third quarter, reaching a 32-year high, and the Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates again to battle inflationary pressures.
Rising rent and fuel prices were the primary causes of the reading being higher than expected, as Australia grappled with high borrowing rates and rising commodity prices. Food costs rose dramatically throughout the quarter due to a mix of supply chain issues and harvest-related adverse weather.
According to the bank, it's trying to find a balance between limiting the negative consequences of high interest rates on the economy and controlling inflation. It hiked rates seven times this year from record lows and declared that future rate hikes will be data-driven.
The pressure on AUD/USD is expected to continue. In light of this, Credit Suisse economists predict that the pair may plunge to a 2020 low of 0.5506.
A steeper decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate is anticipated.
We anticipate a decline to the bottom from April 2020 at 0.6041/5978 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/21 upswing as long as medium-term momentum continues to be bearish. While another little halt is possible, a convincing break lower would increase the likelihood of a fall all the way to 0.5506, the 2020 bottom.
"Any effort at a stronger move higher should be restrained at the sliding 55-day average of 0.6651."
XAU/USD declines from $1,670 in the face of a turbulent DXYThe price of gold has fallen significantly since it crossed the $1,670.00 barrier.
The US dollar index (DXY) has become extremely volatile due to rumors that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened in the FX markets to strengthen the Japanese yen, which has put some fair selling pressure on the precious metal.
The Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at their meeting in November, according to Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
However, Monday's news that North and South Korea had fired warning shots at each other along their disputed western maritime border also appeared to have helped recent US dollar purchases.
Concerns that Chinese President Xi Jinping would not hesitate to intensify geopolitical issues with the US when it comes to Taiwan may be on the same lines. The third consecutive victory for Jinping at the annual Communist Party Congress may have contributed to the cause.
Future gold price declines are anticipated due to uncertain market conditions and challenges to sentiment.
WTI: Crude oil prices are impacted by a dimming demand outlook.Despite limiting its highest daily gains in a week, WTI crude oil remains in a flat trend. US government representatives have stated that they are prepared to release 15 million barrels of oil from SPR.
In contrast to repurchasing shares and paying dividends, according to Biden, oil firms should increase output and lower gasoline costs.
He said, “My message to the American energy companies is this: You should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends. Not now. Not while a war is raging,” Biden said. “You should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining.”
Since the beginning of the year, the White House has released approximately 165 million barrels of petroleum from the reserve, out of a total estimated to be over 180 million.
This means the demand is diminishing.
However, if price manages to trade, break and close above 86.55 the setups would be invalidated making the bulls take charge.
Dixie pumpingwith fairy dust From the previous Analysis with the Dixie, if we do see the USD index break above 119, the next target will be to all time highs. You take the difference between the high and the low of the Enormous W formation and add it to the highs. This will not be good for other currencies. Something big is brewing in the pipeline and it's about to explode!
Target 2 - 166
US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE ACTION AND CHART ANALYSIS w/ upcoming NEWSWelcome back to another video, today's video is about analysing the NASDAQ (NAS100) using the monthly, weekly and daily timeframe to understand and see price movements for possible next direction (either downwards or upwards trend).
P.S NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR... JUST EDUCATIONAL AND LEARNING PURPOSE ONLY...
US Dollar index forecast ahead of CPI US dollar bulls have seemingly halted their accension as they wait for the U.S. inflation data that is due this Tuesday.
The market is predicting that August's headline CPI may edge lower by 0.1%, further strengthening the case that US inflation has peaked.
Even so, it is said that the US dollar has priced in an 85% chance of a 75-basis-points rate hike from the US Federal Reserve next week, Wednesday. Fed chair Jerome Powell has reiterated several times over the past few weeks that the central bank is not yet looking to taper off the pace of their rate hikes.
Looking at the current price action solidifying ahead of the CPI, the DXY pulls back after the RSI reaches above the 70 level, highlighted in the circle, signaling that the price is overbought. The dollar index fell to a one-week low of 108.900, just below an area that has recently acted as a pivoting point.
The wick from last week’s last candle suggests that a demand zone might be causing a firm rejection below 108.900, at least until the CPI data remains unknown for the next 48 hours.
It may be too soon to say that the upwards momentum has been disassembled. As such, the expectation of a bullish push is still in play, and the price may still reach targets suggested by the Auto Fib Retracement Indicator. Targets in play include last week's peak at 110.700, and 111.950 a little further afield.
The DXY price closing within the plausible demand zone at 108.000 - 109.000 will open the DXY to bearish price targets indicated on the chart, including 107.300, 106.750, and 106.200.
USDJPY LONG - Long - termThe USD/JPY is currently at levels last seen in 1988, the second correction in the upcoming bull run is complete, and more dollar strength may be ahead. Although this is a strong resistance level, I think price may break through to levels around 157.78 as a first target. This would represent an equivalent length of the first impulsive wave that started in January 2012 and ended in May 2015.
There is also a very good chance that the current wave could last twice as long as one, or at least 1.618 times as long.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
How long will EUR/USD parity last? After the EURUSD reached and broke below parity, an analysis of the situation is in order.
Last week, the euro failed to close above 1.0320 and the 50-Day Moving Average, presenting a potential bull trap and setting up the opportunity for short sellers, as illustrated by the orange circle.
Although the pair broke below the parity on August 22, a decent pullback is on the table, as investors become uncomfortable with the unusual valuation of the pair. One only has to look back to July 14, to witness the pullback in the EUR/USD after an intraday probing of the parity level.
Bears should remember that we might still be in the middle of a downward leg. So, the medium-term decline may extend to new depths. 0.9900 has already been tested and rejected but a more granular look at the candles might be necessary at this point.
The intraday battle
The EUR/USD spent most of its time consolidating below parity, organizing near 0.9930, before the London opening and strong European data was released.
On the hourly chart, you can see the first of the two big blue candles forming after consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose by 2.1 points in August, from a record low of -27 in July. Consumer confidence was expected to slide further into negative territory, so the upwards revision came as a surprise to the markets.
Two subsequent hourly candle wicks broke above parity to test the staying power of a below-parity EUR/USD. For now, Support is building below 0.9960. In the short term, the market might need to work a lot to take out buyers at 0.9900.
US DOLLAR INDEX Analysis | Risk-to-Reward: +11.6US Dollar Index Long | Small Risk, Huge Reward | R:R +11.6
Position 1
Entry @ 105.762
Stop Loss: 105.500
Primary Take Profit: 107. 250
Swing Take Profit: 108.800
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Position 2
Entry @ 105.710
Stop Loss @ 105.080
Primary Take Profit: 107. 250
Swing Take Profit: 108.800
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Use the Risk-to-Reward Visual Trade Levels For Risk Free Trading, Guiding Your Trades to TP's. This allows your emotional intelligence to grow as your profits do but, most importantly your mastery of the how the market works.
***I personally am trading a 100k account so I focus on 10 total Pairs excluding Crypto daily, risking .25% per trade position aiming for anywhere from 1%-3% gain.***
I am an institutional style trader and I go with the order flow of the market noticing price action more than anything and technicals are always last because throughout my 7+ year trading career I learned many styles and lost a lot of money chasing profits instead of understanding the psychology of trading and emotional intelligence it takes to not trade, but to make consistent profits and not risk my own hard earned money. Hope you take the advice and follow my trade ideas for more I cant post everything but my will be posting them on various platforms for before and afters.
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Correlative Pairs:
US30 + NAS100
USDZAR + USDMXN
XAUUSD + XAGUSD
GBPUSD + EURUSD
GBPJPY + EURJPY
---- CRYPTO CORRELATIVE PAIRS------
BTCUSD + ETHUSD + XRPUSD
DXY can growth a little ...DXY is on support now after last week correction and has chance to goes high again.
The upper line of broken wedge is supported price and will push it to high again.
Fed decision will be very important and huge move will happen after press conference. But, until that time, I think bet bullish move is more logical .
Trade safe guys.
Good luck.