US Dollar index forecast ahead of CPI US dollar bulls have seemingly halted their accension as they wait for the U.S. inflation data that is due this Tuesday.
The market is predicting that August's headline CPI may edge lower by 0.1%, further strengthening the case that US inflation has peaked.
Even so, it is said that the US dollar has priced in an 85% chance of a 75-basis-points rate hike from the US Federal Reserve next week, Wednesday. Fed chair Jerome Powell has reiterated several times over the past few weeks that the central bank is not yet looking to taper off the pace of their rate hikes.
Looking at the current price action solidifying ahead of the CPI, the DXY pulls back after the RSI reaches above the 70 level, highlighted in the circle, signaling that the price is overbought. The dollar index fell to a one-week low of 108.900, just below an area that has recently acted as a pivoting point.
The wick from last week’s last candle suggests that a demand zone might be causing a firm rejection below 108.900, at least until the CPI data remains unknown for the next 48 hours.
It may be too soon to say that the upwards momentum has been disassembled. As such, the expectation of a bullish push is still in play, and the price may still reach targets suggested by the Auto Fib Retracement Indicator. Targets in play include last week's peak at 110.700, and 111.950 a little further afield.
The DXY price closing within the plausible demand zone at 108.000 - 109.000 will open the DXY to bearish price targets indicated on the chart, including 107.300, 106.750, and 106.200.
Usdollarlong
USDJPY LONG - Long - termThe USD/JPY is currently at levels last seen in 1988, the second correction in the upcoming bull run is complete, and more dollar strength may be ahead. Although this is a strong resistance level, I think price may break through to levels around 157.78 as a first target. This would represent an equivalent length of the first impulsive wave that started in January 2012 and ended in May 2015.
There is also a very good chance that the current wave could last twice as long as one, or at least 1.618 times as long.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
How long will EUR/USD parity last? After the EURUSD reached and broke below parity, an analysis of the situation is in order.
Last week, the euro failed to close above 1.0320 and the 50-Day Moving Average, presenting a potential bull trap and setting up the opportunity for short sellers, as illustrated by the orange circle.
Although the pair broke below the parity on August 22, a decent pullback is on the table, as investors become uncomfortable with the unusual valuation of the pair. One only has to look back to July 14, to witness the pullback in the EUR/USD after an intraday probing of the parity level.
Bears should remember that we might still be in the middle of a downward leg. So, the medium-term decline may extend to new depths. 0.9900 has already been tested and rejected but a more granular look at the candles might be necessary at this point.
The intraday battle
The EUR/USD spent most of its time consolidating below parity, organizing near 0.9930, before the London opening and strong European data was released.
On the hourly chart, you can see the first of the two big blue candles forming after consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose by 2.1 points in August, from a record low of -27 in July. Consumer confidence was expected to slide further into negative territory, so the upwards revision came as a surprise to the markets.
Two subsequent hourly candle wicks broke above parity to test the staying power of a below-parity EUR/USD. For now, Support is building below 0.9960. In the short term, the market might need to work a lot to take out buyers at 0.9900.
US DOLLAR INDEX Analysis | Risk-to-Reward: +11.6US Dollar Index Long | Small Risk, Huge Reward | R:R +11.6
Position 1
Entry @ 105.762
Stop Loss: 105.500
Primary Take Profit: 107. 250
Swing Take Profit: 108.800
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Position 2
Entry @ 105.710
Stop Loss @ 105.080
Primary Take Profit: 107. 250
Swing Take Profit: 108.800
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Use the Risk-to-Reward Visual Trade Levels For Risk Free Trading, Guiding Your Trades to TP's. This allows your emotional intelligence to grow as your profits do but, most importantly your mastery of the how the market works.
***I personally am trading a 100k account so I focus on 10 total Pairs excluding Crypto daily, risking .25% per trade position aiming for anywhere from 1%-3% gain.***
I am an institutional style trader and I go with the order flow of the market noticing price action more than anything and technicals are always last because throughout my 7+ year trading career I learned many styles and lost a lot of money chasing profits instead of understanding the psychology of trading and emotional intelligence it takes to not trade, but to make consistent profits and not risk my own hard earned money. Hope you take the advice and follow my trade ideas for more I cant post everything but my will be posting them on various platforms for before and afters.
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Correlative Pairs:
US30 + NAS100
USDZAR + USDMXN
XAUUSD + XAGUSD
GBPUSD + EURUSD
GBPJPY + EURJPY
---- CRYPTO CORRELATIVE PAIRS------
BTCUSD + ETHUSD + XRPUSD
DXY can growth a little ...DXY is on support now after last week correction and has chance to goes high again.
The upper line of broken wedge is supported price and will push it to high again.
Fed decision will be very important and huge move will happen after press conference. But, until that time, I think bet bullish move is more logical .
Trade safe guys.
Good luck.
DXY to continue bullishAnalysis
DXY has been in correction since 15, Jun when another higher high was created on daily. It remains highly bullish on weekly being overbought, and with RSI above 51 on daily chart. However it showed some selling pressures on lower time frames in the past few days, with price currently just floating slightly above 104.073.
From technical perspective, the 4H chart looks like a handle of a bullish cup is forming. 0.5 fib retracement was completed on 16th, June so I expect the price to continue bullish in the coming days.
Intraday News
There’s no red folder news for Monday, however being busy for the rest of the week. Expecting a continued. Expecting a continued correction on Monday.
Liquidation
Price may drop further to the previous fib 0.5 area around 103.546 before continue its bullish move. It's month end in the beginning of the week, so if buyers taking profit, price can drop fairly quickly.
Support Consideration
immediate support at 104.121
key support zone at 103.376 - 103.705
Resistance Consideration
Resistance formed by the upper trend line of the descending triangle. Once break above, it will try the previous high at 105.788 and possible to create higher high. If break down, it will revisit the key support.
Quick DXY analysis on 15mins chartAnalysis
DXY has turned bearish after getting rejected at 104.5 level on lower time frames, although remain above 54 RSI on daily.
Price currently hanging around fib 0.382 since 09, June, which is also a small RBS zone. If not bounced, it can extend the move to lower historical support area 103.536.
If current support is respected, price can go back up to retest 104.234, then either go further for 104.405 or drop back for 103.821.
Overall trend is still very bullish, price is far away from 4H trend line.
Intraday News
There's red folder news for CAD and amber folder for US both of which are forecasted as weak.
Liquidation
price dropped without hesitation through 104.23 are which was supposed to be recent support on 15mins.
There's a small gap on 17, June 103.821 area. If bear intensifies, price and drop to that level to grab some liquidity before moving up.
Support Consideration
mini fib support zone: 103.919 - 104.007
key support: 103.536 (103.423 - 103.619)
Resistance Consideration
immediate retest: 104.234
further test: 104.405, 104.5
Entry
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SL
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TP
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Trade Invalidation
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Expected Pips
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Alternative Scenario
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Similar Pairs
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DXY create ab=cd pattern. So BUY Now.....
N.B-In this situation DXY chart create ab=cd pattern.
So, Market needs seems to sell correction To Support Zone.
Then market fully bullish 100.400 AND 100.850 Resistance Zone.
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U.S Dollar Analysis - USD/JPY & EUR/USD In this video, I breakdown why the U.S Dollar is bullish against the Japanese Yen and maintaining its strength against the Euro, as the central bank, ' The Federal Reserve", is raising interest rates aggressively in 2022 to deal with high domestic inflation.
This is in contrast to the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, which have pledged to keep interest rates low, due to low inflation expectations over the coming years.
I will show you how Bond yields drive currency markets when rising yields in the U.S pay a premium over Europe and Japan when there is a divergence in monetary policy.
Enjoy!
Was the U.S. & China Involved in Bitcoin Price Suppression?Today let's take a look at something I've uncovered regarding top bitcoin hodl'ers, price suppression, and ...is this a bullish indicator for bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a whole?
TradingView Peeps. House rules state that I cannot provide any links in this description. In fact, I cannot even hint at where you may be able to find them. So... I don't know?
Is Russia Setting Crypto up for Success?In this video:
(0:00-3:00) Recap news: Ukraine, Russia, Coinbase, Crypto Illiquidity
(3:01-4:25) U.S. Dollar Strengthening
(4:26-5:14) VIX up
(5:15-5:44) Indexes Down
(5:45-6:38) Bitcoin Dominance Rising!
(6:39-8:20) Bitcoin Rising but still under significant resistance
(8:21-12:56) Is Russia setting crypto up for success? Could they be planning to subvert the U.S. Dollar?
(12:56-End) Outro
DXY (US-DOLLAR) testing a potential reversal-zoneHey tradomaniacs,
What a wild ride today in the market.. I can just shake my head as we`ve seen a complete whipsaw with the US-Session.🙈
Yep.. its monday and the last day of the month which is often shaky, especially now ahead all these events.
Looking at DXY (US-DOLLAR-INDEX) we can clearly see a re-test of a strong support-zone which is getting tested right now.
The S/H/S-Breakout got faked during the london-session, which was for me a great evidence for a long. After that we`ve seen a fakeout above the secondary trendline of the head and second shoulder and so a break down with risk-on in equities.
US DOLLOR INDEXThe weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a large bullish candlestick last week, after previously rejecting the support level at 12257, which closed relatively close to the high of its range. The price ended the week at its highest weekly close seen in 18 months. These are all strongly bullish signs for the greenback. The dollar was boosted by last week’s Federal Reserve release which suggested 2022 will see higher and faster rate hikes than had been widely expected.
Overall, it seems clear we have a very bullish picture in the USD over the long and medium terms, so it will probably be wise to trade in the direction of long USD over the coming week.
US-DOLLAR really falling after NFPs? I doubt it.Hey tradomaniacs,
chaotic market huh?
To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense.
I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold.
The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation.
Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst result since december 2020. This clearly shows a cool down in the NFP-Sector and is overall bearish for the US-Dollar.
Unemployment Rate: 3,9% and a positive development considering that previous rate has been at 4,2%. Overall bullish fort he US-Dollar.
Average hourly earnings: 0,6% and way higher compared to the previous month.
This is overall bullish for the US-DOLLAR due to higher inflation.
Average weekly hours: 34,7 and less than expected.
The problem here in my opinion is the fact that earnings per hour soared while less jobs were created. This is a typical sign of inflation and part oft he wage-price-spiral.
Considering that FED has to and will fight inflation as its priority number one after their „transitory-fail“ to gain back reputation Jerome Powell & Co could turn from best friends to fiends for the stockmarket as financial injections probably won`t be an option anymore, whether the economy cools down or not.
This is clearly negative for the overvalued equity-market but not by all means for the US-Dollar.
Simply put: The FEDs in a quandra.
Can`t provide more liquidity due to high inflation to push growth and employment and has to hope everything is going to be fine.
Rising yields do indicate expectations for higher inflation in the market and would offer an alterantive to stocks in the near future (Bonds).
They are also generally good for the bank-sector and obviously not good for tecs due to high costs which are not as easier to finance with higher interest-rates.
But here is a catch.. we know how irrational but faithful the market is... if it turns out the market hopes the FED to ignore their plans and "slow it down" in order to boost the economy again if future results are not as good as expected we might see another rally in stocks and so a falling US-Dollar. This would be more like the less likely scenario in my opinion...I mean Bidens is on Powells tail.
Risk-Off is generally good for the US-DOLLAR as a safe haven. If FED continues as announced and planned the US-Dollar is likely to move up while this move turns out to be a fake.
One of these charts is lying, but I see a higher probabillity of a rising US-Dollar under these circumstances.
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Can The Bulls Push The Dollar Higher?The Dollar index topped 96.00 last week and is now retracing. The bulls can potentially push price higher again if price can stay above the higher low at 95.51.
In this video, I've also added USDDKK which is a positively correlating currency pair. Take look and be sure you're following me here on Tradingview and Youtube(SLFX Trading).
Have a safe trading week.
USDOLLAR Analysis - Symmetrical Triangle This is a chart for the USDOLLAR, which has been inverted to display the nature of a symmetrical triangle
Price can be seen to enter and exit on opposite sides
Using this assumption we can say that price will rise, at it climbs to exit the triangle (inverted)
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