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Usdollarsignals

DXY Testing the RSI Support that started the 2021/22 rallyThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit yesterday the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 23. Today's rebound simply shows why this MA level is considered such an important short/ medium-term Support. As long as it holds, expect a rebound to the upper Fibonacci extension levels of 2.0 and 2.5 that previously led to the May 13 High. A weekly closing below the 1D MA50 though would mean an extension of this correction towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which acted as a Support on Feb 10 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been untouched since June 23 2021. Pay very close attention to the RSI on the 1W time-frame on the pane below the chart as it is testing the Higher Lows trend-line that practically started this aggressive multi-month trend back in January 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
8
DXY Biggest hike since 2000 enough to turn the USDollar bearish?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had a sudden stop to its rally yesterday following the 0.50% Rate Hike by the Fed, the strongest since 2000. This sudden stop took place at no other level than the 103.850 (just above actually) 5 year Resistance, which was formed by the January 2017 High. Failure to close above it on the 1W time-frame, can technically be seen as a rejection on a long-term scale. Can this be enough to turn the sentiment from long-term bullish to bearish? Well there are some parameters to consider. ** The markets price events before they happen ** First, the markets tend to price such important macro-economic events, days even weeks prior to an announcement. The market speculated this 0.5 basis points interest rate hike, when Jerome Powell first released it as a possibility. The markets digested the news and now we see the results. On this 1W chart, the orange trend-line represents the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Last time it started moving aggressively, i.e. Fed raising rates, was in December 2016. This was a time that the Fed decided to commit on an aggressive hike policy in order to effectively end the QE era that helped the economy recover from the 2008/09 subprime mortgage crisis. At that aggressive round of hiking, the DXY was exactly on the (Resistance) level it currently reached. This cross-asset analysis shows that if the Fed commits, as they've mentioned, to a new aggressive round of rate raising in order to battle an inflation that is out of hand, the U.S. Dollar turning bearish is a real possibility. Note that as the chart shows, even though the rates continued to rise for another year, that DXY Cycle ended in February 2018. That is because first, as mentioned above, the markets tend to discount results ahead of news, and second it was around the time of the U.S. - China Trade War that shook economies worldwide. ** The stunning tendency between DXY Cycles ** The charts is also technically informative in the sense that each of the previous two Cycles that got created after rejections on or near the 103.850 Resistance, lasted for 61 weeks (427 days) until they started to reverse upwards again. Such an exact similarity is striking. Using that as guide, we can assume that the new bearish Cycle that DXY may begin, could last until roughly June 2023, where a Higher Lows trend-line is waiting to Support. Notice the critical part that the Fibonacci retracement levels have in shaping Highs and Lows (Resistances and Supports) these past 6 years. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
11
DXY seeking the 1D MA100 for SupportThis is an update to the core analysis I did on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) two weeks ago: The price remains neutral within the wider consolidation of the green Rectangle after the peak on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. As mentioned previously, the previous such consolidation broke downwards in order to confirm the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) yet again as a Support, which is holding since June 16 2021. As long as this holds, expect the extension of the long-term uptrend on a new slow rise to the next 2.618 Fib extension (we will measure the exact value after/ if it makes the 1D MA100 bottom. A 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100 however, would risk lower level, more particularly the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Note how the 1D RSI posts a cyclical behavioral pattern. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
DXY Bearish until ChristmasPattern: Channel Down on 4H. Signal: Sell as the price is approaching the 4H MA50, which has been rejecting every upside attempt since November 04. Also the RSI is at the top of its Channel Down and the MACD is repeating the November 10 - 13 sequence. Target: 90.100 (-1.30% as per the November fractal). ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> TradingView --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
2