Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 46 - USDPLN - (17th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing USDPLN, starting from the 3-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
USDPLN
USDPLN D1 Bullish - front running Interest Rate decisionAs the inflation is near 2% in Poland, yet the Interest Rates were not cut for a while, I am expecting big positioning in favor of US Dollar.
Unstable situation in the region is also a + for this trade idea.
The stop loss for me is 3.895 and I am looking to take partials at 4.05, 4.10 and targeting 4.20 for USDPLN.
USDPLN is time to UP?!USDPLN reached the long-term growth base plotted since 2011 - there was the first important minimum in the white growth tunnel. Interestingly, each subsequent minimum every few years is practically exactly 30 polish "groszy" (polish cents) higher. Would this indicate that what we see here is the place to start? :) For a long-term purchase of the dollar on this instrument? We reached the bottom edge of the tunnel. However, this is a bit tenous, because if EURUSD still has growth potential, it is rather impossible for the USDPLN instrument to stand still (consolidation) and the zloty not to strengthen further. Movements on USDPLN are always inversely proportional to movements on EURUSD in 95%. If you buy EURUSD, sell USDPLN. CPI in Poland is still falling every month - 6,5% in November this year. I wonder how much level 3.75 is possible to achieve currently on sale? Several zones of demand (tf 1 Month) are also important here on the way down, they can brake this move ...and other TL's. Also check Fibo levels. On oscillators in long terms the instrument is practically sold out. The idea is interesting and the place is worth paying attention to now all the time. Because if the zloty starts to depreciate, it will automatically start to lose against the Euro, the Swiss Franc and probably also against the British Pound, as is usually the case. However, currently the GBP and EUR have little room to fall against the zloty.
USDPLN Breakthrough: Rally Ahead or Resistance at Play?The rising USD against PLN has finally broken through its descending trendline. This strength in the dollar can be attributed to rising bond yields (amid an unmoved Federal Reserve) and the prevailing economic challenges in Poland and the European Union (recessions).
On a technical note: The USDPLN pair has successfully broken out of a descending trendline on the daily timeframe that was evident since October 2022. Post breakout, a retest of this trendline occurred and the pair has since persisted in its upward journey. When zooming in to the 4-hour chart, the upward trend remains unblemished. However, a key observation here is our current position relative to the 'overbalance' level, which stems from February's bullish correction phase. Should the USDPLN manage to breach this overbalance threshold, we could be looking at potential resistance in the 4.27 - 4.33 region. This zone not only houses the 200-day moving average but also coincides with January's previous low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
#USDPLNAnalysis #ForexTrends #BondYieldImpact #TechnicalBreakout #FiboWatch #CurrencyTrading #EuropeanEconomyInsights
USDPLN: Seizing the Bullish Momentum🚀📈 USDPLN: Seizing the Bullish Momentum! 📈🚀
📊 Technical Analysis: USDPLN, the forex currency pair, is currently exhibiting a picture-perfect bullish trend on the 1-hour chart! 📈 The price action is riding the waves of a strong and steady bullish trend line. 📈📈 Additionally, the Momentum Indicator RSI shows no signs of divergence, confirming the sustainability of the bullish sentiment. 🚀💹
💹 Trade Plan:
📌 Long Entry: 4.015097 📈
🛑 Stop Loss: 3.992900 🛑
🎯 Take Profit: 4.037315 🎯
📊 Rationale: The technical indicators align beautifully, paving the way for a long trade on USDPLN. We've entered at 4.015097 to capitalize on the ongoing bullish momentum. With the stop-loss set at 3.992900, we are effectively managing risk and ensuring protection against unforeseen market movements.
🎯 Take Profit Target: Our take-profit level is set at 4.037315, aiming to capture potential gains as the bullish trend continues. This level marks a significant resistance area where the price might encounter selling pressure.
📈 Trade Responsibly: Always remember the importance of responsible trading. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose, and maintain a sound risk management strategy. Stay informed about market developments to make well-informed decisions. 🚀💪
🔍 Chart Indicators:
📌 Bullish Trend Line
📌 No RSI Divergence
💡 Stay Technical, Stay Informed! 💡
#USDPLN #ForexTrading #BullishTrend #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeResponsibly #BullishMomentum #TradingView #HappyTrading #MoneyBag 💼💰
USDPLN : Bullish Outlook 📈🚀 USDPLN: Bullish Outlook for Monday Trading! 🚀📈
💡 Technical Analysis: The USDPLN forex currency pair is showcasing a perfectly bullish trend on the 1-hour chart!
📈 The price action is forming higher highs and higher lows, supported by a strong bullish trend line.
📈📈 Additionally, the Momentum Indicator RSI exhibits no signs of divergence, reinforcing the robust bullish momentum. 🚀💹
📝 Trade Plan: Preparing for a LONG position on USDPLN as the market opens on Monday.
📌 Entry: 4.008740 🚀
🛑 Stop Loss: 3.990300 ⛔
🎯 Take Profit: 4.027180 🎯
📊 Rationale: The technicals suggest a highly opportune moment to go LONG on USDPLN. The entry at 4.008740 aligns with the ongoing bullish trend, while the stop-loss at 3.990300 ensures prudent risk management, guarding against unexpected price movements.
🎯 Take Profit Target: Our take-profit level is set at 4.027180, aiming to capitalize on the continuation of the bullish trend. This level represents a potential resistance area where the price may encounter some selling pressure.
💼 Manage Your Trades: As an astute trader, always remember to employ proper trade management techniques. Adjust your position size according to your risk tolerance, and stay updated with market developments.
🔍 Chart Indicators:
📈 Bullish Trend Line
🚀 No RSI Divergence
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading foreign exchange carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Happy trading! 🚀🌟 #Forex #TradingView #BullishTrade #CurrencyPair #TradeResponsibly #BullishMomentum #ForexAnalysis #USDPLN #Bullish #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TradePlan 📉📊💹
USDPLN & USD in for ONE LAST PUMP! Form Right Shoulder then DUMPUSD looks Bullish for one last leg up. In meanwhile, BTC and Crypto will dump. One USD is done creating the right shoulder of this massive Head and Shoulder pattern, it will dump heavily and BTC will then enter Bull Market.
Sorry for messy Technical Analysis. No time to make it neat before publishing.
Time to short the Polish ZlotyThe idea is very simple... Despite it having a significantly higher interest rate than the US, capital isn't flowing in the country. Poland is in a very tough place right now, as it has a relatively small economy and doesn't have a currency that is widely used. Europe overall is a big mess, and the PLN is affected by the EUR too. The ECB still has rates at -0.5% and Poland has rates at 6%, yet EURPLN is near its ATHs. In the charts below you can see how bad EURUSD looks, which I think will go below 1.03 to sweep the lows and then maybe bounce for a while, and how EURPLN might have formed a massive top. Therefore it might be a better idea to short EURUSD than going long USDPLN (short PLNUSD), as it will have a lower carry.
Yet the structure of USDPLN is much cleaner, and a breakout could be massive. I definitely expect to see the USDPLN highs swept, then a pullback and then continuation higher. This consolidation looks very bullish, and a breakout would potentially lead to a major expansion over time. The main fundamentals behind this is that Poland can't sustain such high rates with such high energy prices as the economy will collapse, and at the same time it does look like Poland would be one of the next countries that Russia will attack. Unfortunately it feels like a matter of time until Russia fully conquers Ukraine, something that will hurt Poland very badly due to its ties with Ukraine, and then it feels like a matter of time until they begin their next war.
USDPLN - still going uphi, best regards from Poland,
from my work I see that USDPLN can hit 5.4 zl or even 5.6 zl
I think that we are on the beginning of creating one of the shoulders - waiting for a head, even one head or even two heads...
Situation is still dramatic - FED officially said that it is fighting with inflation. Still. It is major and the most important factor and risk in this game.
Then we got war, still, without any conclusion how it will end... many scenarios are being plays. I do not believe in atomic attack. I think that this war will be to last drop of blood. Like Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict.
Major issue - still Europe is without gas, oil, no working pipelines for German, Poland. France and Italy or Spain are going very good.
I wish you good luck in this hard game,
But remember the most important and cycles. We got economical cycles and we see that there is one being played on USDPLN - Long.
Look on the chart in long term - compare 2000 highs, then lows and see where goes arrows.
Review of the USDPLN chart on the 1D intervalHi everyone,
Let's take a look at the USDPLN chart in the 1-day range.
As you can see, we moved in an uptrend channel marked with yellow lines for a while, then entered a downtrend marked with blue lines, and then exited from the top.
It is worth setting the first support zone from PLN 4.63 to PLN 4.57, and then we have a strong support zone from PLN 4.47 to PLN 4.37. Looking further, we see another support at the level of PLN 4.24
Now let's move on to the resistance that the USD valuation has on the way and we can see that the first resistance is a strong zone from 4.72 to 4.78 PLN and another resistance at 4.86 PLN.
Let's take a look at the Chop indicator, which shows that we are getting energized after the last increase, and the MACD indicator shows a local downtrend.
Review of the USD / PLN chart on the 1D intervalHi everyone,
Let's take a look at the USDPLN chart on the 1-day interval.
As you can see, for some time we were moving in the uptrend channel marked by yellow lines, but now we are moving in the local downward trend.
It is worth setting the first support line at 4.54 PLN, and then we have a strong support zone from 4.47 PLN to 4.37 PLN. Looking further, we see another support at the level of PLN 4.24
Now let's move on to the resistance that the USD valuation has on its way and we see that the first resistance appears at 4.64PLN, the next one at 4.68PLN, then we have a strong resistance zone from 4.72PLN to 4.78PLN and the next resistance at 4.86PLN.
Let's look at the Chop indicator which shows that we still have a lot of energy and the MACD indicator shows a local downward trend, but the blue line bends strongly and is close to the intersection of the red line from the bottom, which would confirm the upward trend change.