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USDPLN

USDNOK,USDPLN & AUDJPY correlation trade on D1 ChartGREETINGS This articles will be a follow up piece to the educational article I did on correlation trades in the forex market. Check out my article on CORRELATION-DIVERSIFYING-HEDGING-An-elementary-view Now in a previous article that I wrote I had strongly suggested that the AUDJPY had reached a key level of resistance on the daily and weekly chart and was suggesting a possible short sell. Interestingly this was about 2 weeks ago and the price action hasn't really come down at the magnitude expected, except for today (21/12/2020). As I concluded the previous article I promised to explore the idea of how correlated pairs can be used to confirm break outs and avoid fake outs, and this is what we are going to do with the above currency pairs. To start of we shall consider that pair that I had last made an analysis on, which was the AUD/JPY. This pair I had concluded had reached a crucial resistance level and therefore was ready for a sell. I realised at the time that currency pairs do not move in isolation so to avoid the risk associated with putting all my eggs in one "trade", I sought negatively correlated pairs to place a trade and potentially double up my profits while giving me the comfort of a diversified portfolio. I came across 2 pairs which had a -98% negative correlation and these pairs were the USD/NOK and USD/PLN. So how we use such correlated pairs to confirm a break out and not a fake out is to closely monitor both pairs when there is a sudden move in the opposite direction by one pair, you observe the other to see if there is a corresponding move. This I learnt the hard way last week as the prevailing trend on the AUD/JPY was somewhat bullish, whenever it would reverse I would quickly look to put an opposing entry on the USD/NOK. I would not wait for the confirmation on that pair and guess what the USD/NOK would rally further down. this showed that the reversal on the bullish AUD/JPY was a fake out. Sure enough the AUD/JPY would go back up. Now that both pairs seems to be correlating perfectly I think it might be an opportunity here. I have attached the chart which shows how these pairs look like a mirror image. Now I will be looking for long positions "only when price action confirms". This confirmation will be in the form of a pin bar or bullish engulfing candle on the daily (D!) chart. So possible a buy stop or just put an alert at the open of the last bearish candle. My outlook My outlook for the USD/NOK and USD?PLN is to go long This view is long term and could possibly look beyond Jan 2021 My possible entries could be: USD/NOK Buy Stop 8.7416 Take Profit around 9.1400 and maybe let it run to 9.51 USD/PLN Buy Stop 3.72 Take Profit around 3.88 As I said this could go beyond Jan 2021 Takunda Mudenge is a market analyst based in Zimbabwe, Africa. He writes in his personal capacity for educational and entertainment purposes. This should not be construed, assumed or viewed as investment advise. Please consul a professional for such.
Long
by takundamudenge
Coronavirus cases jumped to 300,000 in PolandCoronavirus cases jumped to 300,000 in Poland on Thursday after it had seen 20,156 new cases, a record the country has never seen. However, the Polish government is insisting on keeping it open. The market is projected to keep worrying about its country after the total number of infections turned out to be thrice as much as its previous record in less than a month. Although the pair’s 50-day moving average is still below its 200-day moving average, the former is arching up to the latter. This shows that the bulls are fighting to push the pair up as the world descends into risk aversion for the near-term market once again. Investors are also expected to be optimistic towards the greenback from its leap in gross domestic product announced yesterday as a result of the government injecting more than 3 trillion US dollars-worth of pandemic relief that fueled consumer spending throughout the third quarter.
Long
by Financebroker
1
USDPLN waiting for a trigger to buyon DAILY: USDPLN rejected our previous support zone in green so we are still looking for objective buy setups on lower timeframes on H4: USDPLN formed a new trendline red so we are still waiting for a momentum candle close above our gray zone to buy this one. meanwhile, this one would be overall bearish and can still test our support one more time before going upward, in this case, we will be looking for new objective buy setups to form.
Long
by TheSignalyst
USDPLN, D1 - still below the lower limit of the channelThe USDPLN currency pair has dropped significantly despite the cut in the interest rates in Poland. The market currently is hovering around the lower limit of the key downward channel which could be the important support/resistance area. Also, an important resistance could be located at the previous top at 3,98. It seems that only a move above could open the way to the higher levels. However, if PLN will be getting stronger the next possible support may be located at 161,8 Fibo expansion near 3,84. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Daniel_Kostecki
USD/PLN will continue its downward momentumThe pair will continue its downward momentum in the coming days. A report from the OECD is bringing back the confidence in the Polish zloty. According to the international organization, Poland’s first-quarter GDP drop was among the lowest in the group. For years, the country has been on top of the European Union’s fastest-growing economies and analysts are expecting Poland to continue this trend in the coming years. With a robust recovery in hindsight, the eastern European country’s central bank is expected by analysts to increase its rate. Poland is currently sitting at a 0.10% interest rate, down from 1.50% prior to the coronavirus pandemic. On the other hand, the United States is expected to further slowdown. Despite introducing the largest stimulus in history, America will still suffer from the increasing US-China tension in the coming quarters. The two (2) largest economies are currently in dispute with the coronavirus pandemic.
Short
by Financebroker
The Polish zloty’s rally has steadiedThe Polish zloty’s rally has steadied thanks to the unexpected rate cut from the Polish central bank thank shocked the forex market. Earlier this week, the pair dropped sharply after the news that the National Bank of Hungary opted to leave its rates unmoved. That news gave hopes that the Polish central bank will relatively follow in the steps of its neighbor especially considering that some critics have already said that the previous rate cuts weren’t actually necessary. And just yesterday, the Polish central bank dropped the bomb which caused the pair to steady yesterday and today. However, judging by the fundamentals that are around the pair, it will continue to descend, but the zloty will have a tougher time thanks to the rate cuts. After all, the US dollar remains significantly weak against most currencies thanks to the improvement in the global financial market. Thanks to the reopening of economies around the world, the safe haven of the buck are faltering.
Short
by Financebroker
1
USDPLN - the near end of the correction?After the zloty's sharp appreciation against the US dollar on 26 May, the market seems to be able to complete the full corrective structure labeled as abc. This is a typical simple correction, where wave c may be equal to wave a. One to one pattern is at 3.99 PLN. Also in this region the previous tops and the lower limit in the trend channel are located, which could also be treated as a support area. If this area is defended and the USD/PLN exchange rate remained above 4.00, it could be possible to return of the exchange rate to the upper limit in the trend channel. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Daniel_Kostecki