2018 could be a bull year for USD - long term viewThis is deciding point for USDPLN pair. First signs of potential reversal at the bottom of the channel are visible on the lower time frames.
USDPLN
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Highly volatile surgeThe US Dollar is surging against the Polish Zloty in a highly volatile manner. The pattern, which is considered the junior one, has had its both trend lines touched even during a daily timeframe.
However, recently the currency exchange rate has been beaten down by a resistance cluster, which does not include the upper trend line of the ascending channel. Due to that reason the various resistance levels just above the 3.59 mark need to be watched closely.
Most likely the rate will pass them eventually, as the pair is being supported by the 55-hour simple moving average.
USDPLN @ crossroadsNow this pair is at its cross roads. It can either break below the support line (red dotted line) and heads towards 3.338 then rebound or from current price , it heads for a pull back and goes up to 3.698. Notice that twice the price action hits 3.528 and rebound? See, it is between 50% and 61.8% FIB zone so it need not be precisely touching this two points before it can have a pullback. Now it is the 3rd attempt, will it continue the prior pattern of retracement or disappoint the traders and head further south? If it is, then it is likely to hit 3.426 which is the lower end of the ascending channel. The weekly chart shows a continuing uptrend for this pair.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Greenback tended southwardsThe US Dollar is trading in three channels simultaneously against the Polish Zloty. The senior pattern has confined the rate for the last seven months.
If looking at the pair’s movement two weeks ago, it is apparent that the senior channel took the upper hand over a more junior formation, as the rate halted near the 3.67 mark, thus failing to reach the upper boundary of the medium-term channel near 3.72.
Currently, the rate is trading in a three-week channel down. Technical indicators signal that the Greenback might still edge slightly higher within the following two sessions, but reverse near the 200-hour SMA circa 3.62/63.
The subsequent movement should be tended south in the short term down to the 3.57 mark where the weekly and monthly S1s and the lower boundary of the medium channel are located. This area could mark a minor correction upwards.
Rebound and up !Maybe the worst period for USD is at the end .
the cross bounce on the resistance and try to rise
The short term market pressure confirm the new direction.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: US Dollar breaches long-term channelUSD/PLN had been trading in a descending channel in force since mid-November, 2016. After breaching this pattern last week, the Greenback retraced from its upper boundary early on Monday.
Thus, the dominant pattern now is an ascending channel which was formed mid-July. The rate’s trading range within this pattern has diminished, as it has failed to touch the bottom channel boundary on two separate occasions.
From theoretical point of view, the breakout from the senior channel should be followed by a surge. This is likewise supported by the pair’s upward-sloping movement in the junior channel.
The rate is supported by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the weekly and monthly PP and the weekly S1 in the 3.64/3.60 territory.
In general, it is likely that one of these levels pressures the US Dollar for a reversal, thus paving the way for a surge in the medium-term.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Channel UpUSD/PLN 1H Chart: Channel Up
The American Dollar is trading against the Polish Zloty in two week long ascending channel that started to form after the currency exchange rate changed a direction and jumped through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs to the top.
By the moment, it consists of four confirmation points, which means that it has reached maturity and might be broken in the nearest future.
The breakout might occur even earlier, as the currency pair is simultaneously moving in a junior descending channel whose existence became evident after the buck failed to pass through the monthly PP at 3.6490 yesterday.
On the other hand, the road downstairs is secured by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 3.6252.
On the gradual surge to the top additionally point out traders’ mood, which is 72% bullish.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Ascending WedgeThe US Dollar is trading in an ascending wedge against the Polish Zloty. It might be assumed that the given pattern has reached its maturity that might result in a breakout this week.
Ascending wedge is a continuation pattern that should guide the pair southwards, breaching a support cluster formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 3.6430. A possible downside target could be set near the 3.62 mark—a level reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP.
The aforementioned limit may likewise work as a reversal point after which the pair could make a retracement to the bottom wedge line. However, in case bears prevail, rate may fall down to the weekly S1 near 3.59.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Descending TriangleUSD/PLN 1H Chart: Descending Triangle
The American Dollar is losing value against the Polish Zloty in a pattern that has the features of a descending triangle.
An impulse necessary for its formation was given by an announcement of the US Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday.
In theory, the currency rate should exit the pattern in the southern direction.
On validity of this scenario indicate combination of the 20-, 55-, 100-, 200-period SMAs and the weekly PP that exercise pressure on the pair from the top.
On the other hand, the lower trend-line coincides with the monthly S2 at 3.6160, which has already proved to be a strong support barrier (6 prior rebounds).
Besides, there is a chance that even if the pair breaks downwards, the fall would be stopped near 3.6107, to which point out three William’s fractals.
#USDSGD is prime for a reversalIn mid April, I had posted here about further price decline on the pair and could test the 1.38 level. Now we have seen the price breaking below that level and it is a good time to enter for the upside move. Any downward price movement from here is going to be limited considering the take-profit target at 1.421.
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Trade outlook: 30-60 days
Ramesh aka Surefire Trader, is the author of his new book "Trade Forex with Confidence"
to guide readers how to build a profitable trading system using the 10/20/30 Rule.
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USD/PLN opportunityThis is only my analysis and I do not pretend to be expert, so, be careful.
I expect few moves the next few weeks. It follows the same logic than for my other post on EUR/CAD.
1) USD/PLN should stay quiet during this time, between 3.70 and 3.73-75, waiting for the news.
2) The PLN then, should be be strengthened because of the ECB decision rate the 9th June, breaking the 3.70 support to the next one at 3.6. European news are impacting the PLN, as a member of the Euro Area (even if Poland does not have the same currency, but by gravity).
The Polish economy is growing, the expected GDP (around 4%) is a good indicator of it; the good EUR performance and the business sentiment are positively impacting the PLN, pushing down the pair.
3) A correction should appear during the week, bringing the USD/PLN aroung 3.70.
4) As the markets are strongly expecting, the FED decision will improve the USD, then a move to 3.85 is 90% possible, if not even more.
In theory, a perfect move can be to short until 3.6 and to buy until the USD/PLN is reaching 3.85 ~ 200 pips.
In addition, the PLN is most likely to depreciate his currency, as it appears to be done every six months. The last interesting time that occured, was during the Trump election when the pair was at 4.27. If the PLN depreciates in the same time than USD appreciates, a move until 4 or 4.10 (if the 4 psychological resistance breaks) is not to exclude.
Good luck and trade safe.
USDPLN; More Losses Ahead After A Minor CorrectionThis pair has broken down its upward sloping channel and is now reached a support area. I expect a minor upward correction and then another down leg towards the next support level.
Good luck,
Ali Sharifazadeh, CFTe
RSI Quick Scan - Forex (aka Fiat)Here is my quick scan of the market.
Of course please don't just buy in Long/Short just because strength shows overbought/oversold.
There is always more room to 0 or 100.
1Day:
AUDCHF - 26 RSI
USDCHF - 29 RSI
USDSGD - 28 RSI
USDDKK - 26RSI
Honorable mentions:
USDPLN - 30 RSI Rising ATR
NZDCHF - 30 RSI
USDNOK - 31 RSI High ATR
EURNZD - 75 RSI
EURSEK - 72 RSI
EURTRY - 67 RSI (Bull Div)
A little extra work defining key candle swings/fib support levels with price alerts tends to pan out on at least one.
I tend to look for:
key candle momentum swings
day close fractals
dbl bottom/top
USD/PLN LONGWe recommend open long positions for USD/PLN. Key point after breakout: 4.05, 4.08, 4.12
usd/zloty long based on miner's methodologyBrown elipse is the place to take long posision, after stoch oscilator on 4H turns up (oscilator on day chart just turn up)
It's a crossroad of few key fibo retracments, key support and few time zones extensions (blue lines).
I think that new trend after correction ABC i've matched goes higher that the last one - stop loss: depens on strategy. I think few pips under end of C wave is good idea.
