US DOLLAR/SWEDISH KRONA ELLIOTT WAVES COUNTThis may be reflect a possible Elliott Waves Count for the pair!
USDSEK
SEK is the cheapest G10 currency=> Here we are shorting the dollar against SEK as we see a fresh leg down in the dollar for September flows.
=> Markets have gone overboard on risk premium and we are looking to get advantage of the Swedish elections coming up in two weeks.
=> Fundamentals are improving in both Sweden and Europe and a rising Euro will help move SEK as collateral here.
=> GL
(Entry at MKT; Stop 9.25; Targets 8.85 and 7.90)
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Short-term increase expectedThe US Dollar has been depreciating against the Swedish Krona in a short-term descending channel since the middle of August. This gradual decrease in price began when the rate reversed from the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel at 9.2290.
The pair reversed from the lower boundary of the junior channel during Thursday's morning hours. The common scenario would be a surge towards the upper channel line located circa 9.0800. However, technical indicators suggest that this advance might not be immediate, as the pair is being pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs.
Important level to look out for is the monthly PP at 9.0637.
USDSEK bounce imminent: high probability, RR of 2.It is all in the chart :)
From experience & instinct there is a high probability USDSEK is going to bounce now.
Bullish divergence is my condition to enter a trade and it is filled.
I will update this idea as this pair moves.
I do not know what the perfect way to scale in is. I do not own a quantum fund.
My scaling is small large medium (example: 0.2 lot 1 lot 0.5 lot), I do not know if this is the best, but this is how I like it. I do not want to go big too high in case I got stopped, just enough to not miss out if it bounces early, and not too low or I will miss all winners and only get filled big on losers.
1W Channel Up. Long.USDSEK is trading within a long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 67.172, MACD = 0.190, Highs/Lows = 0.1401, B/BP = 0.3894), which has just tested the first Support at 9.03686. If it doesn't continue higher from here then the Higher Low will be made at the lower Support on 8.93186. Both are technical long entries with TP = 9.35123.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Rate tests 55-day SMAUpside risks prevailed in the market at the beginning of July, thus sending the US Dollar 3.10% higher against the Swedish Krona. Half of these gains were erased during the previous trading week, as the pair had returned near the 8.80 mark at the time of this analysis.
The Greenback has already fallen below the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs. If the 55-day one likewise surrenders at 8.7950, it might be considered that a medium-term decline is in sight.
The following trading days are likely to come with a slight correction north until the monthly PP and the 55-period SMA at 8.85, as bears could lack the necessary momentum to dash through the 55-day SMA at first. This up-move might also lead the rate until a trend-line located near 8.92 is reached.
last warning, spectacular move to unfold on usdjpy and usdsekthis is almost to complicated to exlpain, i'll give the details later. a non conformal analysis of critical points and their alignment on many pairs is revealing a spectacular coordinated move to happen very soon (today/tomorrow).
at time of writing its trace has already been detected on usdjpy, cadjpy and usdcad.
from this analysis we extract two pairs for which the move might be spectacular because of stiffness property : usdjpy, and usdsek (swedish krona).
the fall on these pairs (and many others) might be almost in straight line !
Rectangle continuation on 1D. Short.USDSEK continues to trade inside a long term 1D Rectangle (ADX = 15.631, Ultimate Oscillator = 49.902) and we can continue working within the yellow rays on a medium term scalping approach. For now we are shorting, TP = 8.64012.
Pivotal swing after engulfing = Low risk high probability tradeTrading the weekly OANDA:USDSEK swing from the pivot midpoint. The h4 printed an engulfing candle right at the pivot midpoint. As I am still mildly bullish on the USD buying is the game with 8.98 as a first target.
Let's see where it brings us. Trade safely
USDSEK: Rectangle on 1D. Short.USDSEK is trading near the 1D Rectangle's Resistance. It may rise to 8.97077 but eventually should test the 8.56621 support if the 8.98828 resistance stays intact. We are taking a short action: TP = 8.64012.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Upper range line reachedThe US Dollar has been stranded in the 8.5675/8.9835 range since late April. Its southern boundary and the senior channel were tested mid-June. This move was followed by the Greenback initiating a new up-wave and reaching the 161.80% Fibonacci expansion line at 8.95 yesterday.
Given that the pair has reached the upper range boundary, it is likely that bears start to pressure the rate and thus push it lower. This assumption is likewise strengthened by the fact that the rate has breached the dashed short-term trend-line.
The base scenario favours the weakening of the strong upside momentum and a soon decline down to the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs or the other range line at 8.75 and 8.5675, respectively.
Round Number Holds Strong on The USDSEKLast post: May 20th. See chart .
Review: Price had found support and the bulls were back in control of the market.
Update: The bulls remained in control, taking price through resistance but this week has seen price fail at the round number 9.0000.
Conclusion: Standing aside for now until the round number is confirmed as support before considering long trades.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
USDSEK HIts new YTD HighsSEK weakness continues to reign , previously we saw a potential double bottom (DB) form with the February low (pattern later confirmed with a break of the neckline in April) and had further reason to be convinced of the reversal with an A-B-C reversal pattern forming off the same Feb low.
After reaching a YTD high of 8.9159 we saw a ner retest of the DB neckline but have now advanced to a YTD high of 8.96 and threatening a test of pysch level 9.00 as well as the pivot support from April 2017 at 9.10. IF we see price advance above these milestones then the next target is the 2016 high at 9.44.
Traders should look to get tactically long either on breakouts or pullbacks to prior pivots. Be wary of entering on overstretched bars, we may see a short term advance followed by a pullback to 9.00, an entry could then be taken from the next close at a new high
Good luck
USDSEK LONG Opportunity DIDO (Day In Day Out)Glancing at current market conditions, we can see that USD is creeping into overbought territory and could remain there if fundamentals are unchanged or positive.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Bullish in short termUSD/SEK has been guided by two opposing channels. The most senior pattern was formed in December 2016, while the junior one has bounded the rate within the bounds of this aforementioned senior channel. The most recent up-wave started late in January when the Greenback reversed from the 7.80 mark.
The pair tested the upper boundary of the senior channel near 8.9025 during the first week of May. It has since edged lower but nevertheless remained near this long-term pattern.
Technical indicators flash bullish signals in the short term. It means that the rate is likely to re-test the senior channel at 8.9025 this week. This level is likewise strengthened by the weekly R2 and the monthly R1. The outlook in the medium term, however, remains bearish, showing that the senior channel is likely to be respected.
USD-SEKAn eventual close of USD-SEK below the dotted line will give a bearish signal with the first target in the area 8.49.
The Bulls Back in Control on The USDSEK?Last post: April 26th. See chart .
Review: A retest as support was expected following a break through key pivot resistance.
Update: The retest was sometime in coming. A break and close above May resistance is now needed to suggest a trend continuation.
Conclusion: Standing aside for now until the breakout and trend continuation has been confirmed.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Pair tests mid-2017 highStrong upside potential has been guiding USD/SEK since mid-April. The pair had breached a long-term channel down earlier in the month prior to gaining the necessary momentum to reach the 8.87 mark—the rate’s highest position since July, 2017. Along the way, the pair breached a three-month ascending channel near 8.75 that should point to further appreciation.
However, it is expected that bulls soon exhaust their upward momentum and allow bears to form a correction south. The prevailing channel suggest that the US Dollar could still edge slightly higher in this session towards the 8.90/95 area.
Subsequently, the pair should aim for the lower boundary of this pattern circa 8.75 in the short term and further down to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 8.62 within the following two weeks.
USD/SEKOverbought and a retest of previous highs in the 8,50 area
stop loss 8,35
target 50% of trade 8,90
rest will follow to highs around 9,35-45
The USDSEK Breaks Resistance The USDSEK is new to our trading blog and one that is starting to look like a potential long setup. We have recently featured both the EURSEK and the GBPSEK for trend trading trading opportunities so it is no surprise that the USDSEK is of interest too.
We last traded the USDSEK back in 2014/2015 when we had the last significant period of trend on several USD currencies. These currencies also included the AUDUSD, EURUSD and the GBPUSD.
The USDSEK was one of the top performing currencies in that period producing a most linear trend from circa 6.5000 as support to just short of 9.0000 as resistance, a move of 2500 pips that was covered in a year offering multiple compounding opportunities along its ascent.
This was a period of trend where we extracted over 55 000 pips in 9 months on only a handful of positions across all the above mentioned currencies. Since then, the FX market has been notoriously difficult to trade with sustained trends being non-existent.
The money since 2016 has been in the bull run in stocks and so those who have focused heavily on FX in this time will have found it difficult to make sustained profits. Trading side-ways markets has no edge.
Looking at the setup on the USDSEK, we can see that price has now moved its way through the 200SMA and the 50SMA since February when the bulls took control of the market at the major support zone of 8.0000.
Price is now crucially also trading above the key pivot resistance of 2017 which is now acting as support. What we now want to see is a pullback to retest this level and then the next breakout to suggest a trend continuation towards 9.0000.
We will then look for the appropriate setup to start allocating risk to long trades.
Patience needed for now.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
