USDSEK
$USD v. $SEK - Geo Eyes 8.9109 | #elliottwave #fibonacci #forexFriends,
This pair was been quite responsive to the Predictive/Forecasting Model on both large and smaller scale - Although, this there has been only two prior predictive analysis and forecasting - Following are two of these forecasts:
$USDSEK - Short-Term Target ... Hit.
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$USDSEK - Mid-Term Target ... Hit.
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FORECASTING THE HOURLY FRAME:
This time, we return to a "in-between" timeframe, having defined a target as TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015 in the hourly timeframe - This target is defined using the Predictive/Forecasting Model as an autonomous feature that I use as my foreground leader.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODE BREAKS DOWN ELLIOTT WAVE AND GEO:
What I have added to the price field are geometries, one borrowed from the Elliott Wave patterns in the form of a triangle, with internals of (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) defined at the Intermediate Degree (i.e.: wave counts defined over weeks to month) with defining convergence between lines A-C and B-D.
The other is the Geo, with its own internal requirements, such as a reciprocal ab = cd within the 1-2 Leg, complex zig-zag (typically TZ) within its 2-3 Leg, a simpler ZZ between 3-4 Leg, and convergence of 1-3 and 2-4 lines, both of same directional slope (up in this particular case).
Note that the Geo was simply born as a refinement of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com) using the Predictive/Forecasting Model as the dissecting tool. In the same manner and procedure as I have dome with the WW leading to refinements of internals and improving the precision of forecasts of reversal levels that would define the entire geometry, I am now turning to Elliott Wave's Contracting Triangle for a similar biopsy, although the waves are already well and authoritatively defined (www.ElliottWave.com) - There is nothing to add here, except being able to predict where whether the triangle will predictably post an overshoot, undershoot or pure alignment with the geometry's A-C line projection. It might not matter in smaller frames, but daily, weekly and monthly might cause unbearable adverse excursions.
Note that in this analysis, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an OVER-shoot at TG-Hi, short of the expected 1.131-Fibonacci level which often defines that overshoot, such that:
E = 1.131 x A.
OVERALL:
Bullish outlook with possible interim decline to depths defined in dashed arrows. Target as discussed above.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com
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Multiple Dollar pairs suggest downThis is an interesting portfolio.
Will these pairs follow USDCNH's lead?
Is this the beginning of a new fundamentally backed intermediate term trend?
Or just a very nice short term short?
Setups on chart, we will cover these in our skype group's discussions.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in.
All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
$USD v $SEK - #elliottwave Points To Predictive Model's 8.9109Friends,
$SEK is expected to weaken in this pair, where an Elliott Wave carved out an outline of its Contracting Triangle through a series of 3-3-3 internal formations with more (leading triangle) or less (simple zig-zag) complexities.
This analysis replaces a recent one, as the Geo lost its geometric validation - However, the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains in force with a resilient bullish target defined as:
- TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015
ALTERNATE PATTERN - BARRIER TRIANGLE ... BUT NO MORE:
Although price is currently perched at the top of a motive wave - which may or may not necessarily mark the debut of the expected ascent - an adverse excursion should be tolerable all the way down to the 8.03040 line - Crossing of the orange square would offer a fair advance warning.
Indeed, attainment of this 8.03040 nadir would convert the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle to a related Barrier Triangle, wherein its Intermediate points (B) and (D) would come to alignment.
INVALIDATION OF ELLIOTT WAVE TRIANGLES:
If and once price breaks below the aforementioned 8.03040 interdiction level, current analysis become null and void. However, the market geometrist would have to consider the possible nascence of a Wolfe Wave or Geo.
OVERALL:
An Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle has carved its geometric outline out of Intermediate waves (A), (B), (C) and (D), giving shape to its requisite convergence of A-C and B-D lines with zig-zag internals up to this point.
A forecast outline of the expected Intermediate wave (E) is drawn, using slopes of preceding dominant waves, and levels that have been defined as relevant to the Predictive/Forecasting Model.
Although Intermediate wave (E) is expected to pass beyond the A-C line, it is defined at the level corresponding to the Predictive/Forecasting Model which had valued the top at 8.91090 on 01 OCT 2015. However, this would not distort the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, but simply offer a common "overshoot", which is a distinct signature in this particular geometry.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com
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