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USDSEK

US Dollar DXY Continue to Weaken or Short Squeeze Incoming?The US Dollar has been getting culled. The downtrend is apparent. We were watching the weekly support way back at the 94.75-95.00 zone. Penetrated right through it. Notice too how price came back to retest this zone before continuing lower. 92.00 was the MAJOR KEY support for the US Dollar. Not only was it a major support zone (price floor) but it is where the trendline back from 2012 met price. In order to keep the overall major long term uptrend, the US Dollar had to hold and remain above this zone. We had a price war here between the bulls and the bears for many weeks. Really was make or break for the US Dollar. As you can see from the chart, price broke below 92.00 support and below this major uptrend line. The US Dollar was now officially in a major bear trend. I believe there is one more leg lower which will take us to the 84.00 zone. BUT we know that according to market structure, nothing moves down forever. Instead, price moves in waves, in a downtrend these are called lower highs. I do think one needs to from, which does mean expect a relief rally. The Dollar has tested major support at the 89.00 zone. In the past two weeks, we have had major wicks on the weekly candles indicating that buyers are stepping in and holding this support. I expect price to pop here to retest the trendline break and resistance now at 92.00. This might happen rather quickly. Why? A short squeeze is possible. Shorting the US Dollar has been a very popular trade. Not only has the US government passed a 900 Billion covid bill and an over 700 billion defense bill, but MORE will be coming with a Democratic administration. It was coming regardless of whatever party won the election, but the Democrats have a history of spending more. Not only that, but the Federal Reserve will continue to print and maintain their asset purchasing power. To be honest, I am a bit perplexed because EVERY western nation and central bank is doing this. One would think the US Dollar would be the better currency to hold in this environment. But in the past, I have told my followers and readers that this is the currency war. Since every central bank wants a weaker currency to boost inflation and exports, the Federal Reserve is in the best position with the Dollar being the reserve currency. The Europeans and the European Central Bank are not, and have attempted to weaken the currency at all costs. Remember, a weaker currency is the definition of inflation for classical economists. It takes more of a weaker currency to buy something which causes prices to move higher. This includes US stocks as well. Hence why a weaker Dollar is great for US stock markets, and sure, it means US companies can export more. Do not be surprised to see some shorts squeeze here. In my currency war framework, if the Fed wants a weaker Dollar, we should expect a reversal at the retest of 92.00. I would take my long profits there. What will be interesting and exciting will be if the US Dollar closes ABOVE 92.00 on the weekly chart. This would get us back above the trendline break and would nullify the downtrend. If 92.00 holds, then we make our lower high swing in the downtrend and the US Dollar closes below 89.00 before hitting 84.00. On our long trade currently, we have been watching the reversal sign on the 4 hour: My favorite reversal pattern, the inverse head and shoulders which displays a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend. On Friday, we broke and closed above the neckline which triggered the reversal pattern. One would have entered a long then, but personally, I do not like holding trades over the weekend nor do I like to open a position late on a Friday which would require me to hold over the weekend. Just a rule that I abide by which has kept me alive in this game. As we open today, a nice gap up on the US Dollar. Very strong. Let's watch to see how this develops tomorrow and what the daily candle close has in store for us. I am bullish above 89.50, but price could pullback to retest the 90 zone before continuing higher. The US Dollar is seen as the safe haven currency. Generally, when things are wild, people run into the US Dollar. I find it very intriguing that the Dollar is showing signs of some sort of reversal/relief in this environment with the potential of crazy things to happen on the political front in the next 10 days. Tons of nice looking Dollar set ups: EURUSD, USDCHF, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDSEK, USDNOK showing signs of a reversal on the 4 hour charts.
TVC:DXYLong
by Uncharted-FX
1
ridethepig | SEK for the Yearly Close📌 SEK for the Yearly Close In general the following flows are working flawlessly, sellers have recaptured the control and are bringing about a lot of pressure on the main macro targets issued at the beginning of 2020. One indication of the weakness is clearly the USD devaluation, and is represented by the attacking side rushing to SEK. Introducing some layers to time for this just as an example for reference points using Gann, it is strategically interesting to see Feb 2022 as it is also a panic cycle in the dollar according to my models. The buyers are hanging by a thread, they are having trouble trying to pay their debts and will have to convince the creditors. At the point when this was made, Fed was seen as a deer in the headlights via Covid capitulation / flip flop and, with what immense trouble they will have now in achieving credibility after funding the Whitehouse policies in broad daylight!! Watch for the lows next week, its not quite so easy for buyers to dispose of the momentum here: if this happens we may enter into waterfall mode. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
Swing Trade Idea on USDSEK by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the chart: a) The price has been on a bearish trend since MARCH 2020 b) Currently, the price is below a previous Support zone now working as a resistance c) The main style of the strategy we are showing here is looking for previous situations at the same level and use them as models for possible resolutions on the current scenario. d) Based on that, we think that if the price breaks below the Daily structure, we have freeway towards the next support zone at 7.9 e) In case the price keeps rising, we will cancel the setup f) This is a Swing Setup meaning that the resolution can take several weeks or 1 to 2 months.
by ThinkingAntsOk
USD/SEK: Swing Trading Analysis 📊⏲️Do you guys care to trade something bit more “exotic”? I am personally not much into day trading such pairs as USD/SEK because of big spreads and worse liquidity. But with swing trading and long-term investing it is a whole different story. The reason is that with longer-term trades spreads don’t play such an important role. The same goes for liquidity. So, let’s now have a look at swing trading analysis of USD/SEK! What caught my eye here was a strong downtrend which started in March. Within this downtrend, there was a rotation in June. In this rotation, there were pretty massive volumes traded. I identified that using my Flexible Volume Profile on the whole trend area. From this rotation, the downtrend continued. This means that the volumes accumulated in this rotation were mostly sellers entering more short positions and then making another push. For this reason, it is likely that when the price makes it back into this strong volume zone again, those sellers should become active again and they should start defending their short positions (with aggressive selling activity). This should drive the price downwards again from there. And that’s why I think this area with POC around 9.3000 will work as a strong long-term resistance. Price Action analysis If you look at the picture above, you can see how nicely the price reacted to the 9.3000 zone in the past. There were two really strong rejections in December and in March. This tells us, that this zone worked as a strong support. When the price made it past this support in July, then this support turned into a resistance. This is an old and simple Price Action setup, and you can read more about it here: Price Action Setup: Support Becomes a Resistance So, not only we have the volume-based setup (the Trend Setup), but we also have a Price Action setup at the same level. Both those setups point to the same place (9.3000) which is telling us that there is a strong resistance. That’s it for today’s analysis guys. I hope you liked it. Let me know what you think in the comments below! Happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
1
USD/SEK and EUR/SEK Breakout Trades!USDNOK has been one of my favourite Dollar pairs I have kept tabs on ever since the DXY was showing signs of a reversal. This market structure analysis can be used for ANY MARKET since ALL MARKETS move the same three ways. USDNOK was in a long downtrend with multiple lower highs and lower lows. Price then began to base/range/consolidate. This was a sign that the downtrend was over or was exhausting as no new lower lows were being made. Scrolling back, price did find support at an important support/flip zone of 8.60. The trigger for an entry is the breakout. We wanted a nice clean and strong breakout. This occurred with today's daily candle. Placing my stop loss just below the daily candle, and targeting the 9.20 zone. A good risk vs reward set up. EURSEK is very similar. A lot of market structure confluences. We have had the break out too. Notice the large sell off and buyers stepping in on the retest already. Similar approach: A stop loss below the daily breakout, and targeting the 10.55 zone. As a bonus, I was watching USDNOK too. We had a nice long downtrend with multiple swings, which hit a large support/flip zone at 8.70. From here, I was watching for an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern. Unfortunately, we did not get that. BUT we did get a close above the previous lower high (9.0355) zone meaning the downtrend is officially over. What I would like to see now is our first HIGHER LOW in this new uptrend, and this will provide us with an opportunity to enter, and we can place our stop loss below this higher low. Ideally, we would like this higher low to be formed with a retest of the breakout zone.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
Sweden will be publishing its second-quarter GDP report todayThe pair will fail to break out from a downtrend channel resistance line, sending the pair lower in the following days. Sweden will be publishing its second-quarter GDP report today, August 28. Expectations for the April to June report is an economic decline of 8.6%. The country’s herd immunity program was meant to prevent its economy from collapsing. However, recent reports suggest that the country suffered the same fate as its neighbors. However, the Swedish koruna will thrive against the US dollar as the largest economy in the world suffered a worse economic contraction. Furthermore, Sweden’s report from yesterday gave hope among investors that Sweden is on the path of recovery. Consumer and manufacturing confidence posted 84.4 and 97.7 results for the month of July compared to prior numbers of 83.3 and 95.7 points, respectively. Its retail sales also grew 1.9% last month, higher than 1.0% expectations, and 1.3% prior result.
Short
by Financebroker