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Will the US Dollar Index Collapse Below 100? Or Back To 105?The big day has arrived: the first Fed rate cut. The burning question is, will it be 0.25% or 0.5%? In recent days, the markets have been leaning toward a 0.50% cut. Could this be the catalyst for a breakdown below the critical 100 level in the USDX? Let’s break down the charts and find out. Looking at the weekly charts, the 100 level has been a solid support zone for several years, briefly dipping below last year in what turned out to be a false breakout within the 100 - 107 range. I’ve highlighted some key levels on the charts: last year’s low at 99.47, and just below that, the 0.99 mark, which is a key Monthly 0.618% fib level and a strong former resistance turned support (see image below). Below this level is a significant BUY zone, where the massive 2022 rally began, breaking through 100 and eventually driving the price up to nearly 115. Considering these key areas, I do suspect we may see a breakdown through the 100 level, but it will likely be met with strong buying pressure at the areas mentioned. This is why, for now, I’m leaning toward the upside for the US dollar. Zooming into the daily charts, an M pattern is forming at this key support, suggesting that price is gearing up to break through the 100 level. Additionally, there’s a divergence emerging on the MACD, indicating that although a break below 100 might occur, it could be short-lived. This is why we should be looking for buy setups as the price dips under this level. Zooming in further to the 6-hour charts, we can see the divergence even more clearly, with the MACD on the verge of a crossover to the upside. With all of this in mind, a whipsaw move could be on the cards today after the rate decision. I’ll be turning on my TRFX indicator and watching for buy setups on dips under 100 and toward 0.99. Although the USDX may weaken in the longer term, I fully expect a strong reaction at the levels mentioned, with the price likely to run back up toward the 103-104 area before selling off again. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by TheFxAce
9
DXY is heading to 103.7 maybe lower(07/31/2024)In our last analysis, our predicted zone for DXY correction played well, the DXY corrected from 103.7 to 104.8 and crashed after hitting the last resistance. We are expecting DXY to retest the 103.7 zone again at least until NFP data. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
TVC:DXYShort
by fortunamarkets
Possible correction waiting for DXY(7/16/2024)DXY faced strong bearish momentum after CPI data. In the last few days TVC:DXY made a minor correction but the sentiment around USD is still bearish. We believe DXY continue its downward momentum until it reaches the 13.8 area. This area has a lot of liquidity, so maybe push the price to a little correction. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
TVC:DXYShort
by fortunamarkets
DXY mini wave upward(5/7/2024)After the NFP and unemployment data, The DXY TVC:DXY faced a big correction. In this week, we believe this week is going to be calm because USD has no game-changing data. there is a possibility that the DXY is going to make some retracements in an upward direction. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
ICEUS:DXYLong
by fortunamarkets
XAGUSD - USD Continues To Get Weaker?Analysis: Upwards trend (bullish confluence factor) Break & retest of previous area of resistance for support (bullish confluence factor) 38.2% fib retracement level touch (bullish confluence factor) Upwards trendline close by (bullish confluence factor) 6K long position decrease for the USD (bullish confluence factor) Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by jpeacockfx
12
NZDUSD - The USD Will Continue To Fall!Analysis: Upwards trend (bullish confluence factor) Retest of an old support level (bullish confluence factor) 61.8% fib retracement level (bullish confluence factor) Upwards trendline touch (bullish confluence factor) NZD is the 5th strongest major currency whereas the USD is the 3rd strongest major currency (bearish confluence factor) 2K short position increase for the NZD (bearish confluence factor) 8K short position increase for the USD (bullish confluence factor) Comments: Despite the strength of the US, the USD has been pretty bearish for a while now and it looks as if this could continue. We're pulling back into a strong area which we expect to hold as resistance for the DXY, meaning that we could then see a continuation to the downside which in turn would favour our idea on NZDUSD. Whilst we don't have all of the confluences pointing to bullishness, we still have the majority showing bullish signs. With the confluences we have on NZDUSD along with the technicals we have on the DXY we expect to see the USD continue its bearish move to the downside, pushing price higher on NZDUSD. This is what gives us our bullish bias. Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
16
DXY - USD Approaching Last Resort Of SupportSounds dramatic, I know. :-) We see where price got rejected near the Centerline (white). We see that price broke the little (blue) shelf which inflects with the orange Centerline. So, orange Centerline is broken too. According to the rules of the Medianlines, we can expect a pullback to it. And it would be a little Gift to enter Short, or load up the boat. However, the last support before a massive breakdown is the white Lower Medianline Parallel. If we break through this level, the new target is huge, down at the L-MLH of the orange Medianline (Target Zone). To me, this would also open other opportunities. For example a Bold Long in Crude Oil.
TVC:DXYShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
GBPUSD - Pullback Before A Continuation Higher!Analysis: Looking at the charts we're clearly able to see that price is in an upwards trend. We've been forming higher highs and higher lows which shows us the trend we're in so knowing this we're only looking for long setups on this pair. We also have a key level which we've marked out where we've previously seen a strong rejection from but we've since broken higher and we're currently retesting this previous level of resistance for support. As we know resistance very often becomes support which is what we're expecting to happen now. To further add to our idea and why we think price will head to the upside from this level, we also have the 38.2% fib retracement level. Whilst this isn't the strongest level we still do often see this area hold and with this fib retracement level being at our area of support we expect that it will hold and we'll see buyers step in, pushing price higher. Another confluence factor that we have is the upwards trendline that is present. When this trendline has been tagged before we've seen buyers step in and push price higher. This trendline also lines up with our area so we have a really strong level of support which is why we think this is a good place to enter. The fundamentals as well favour our idea. Currently the USD is the strongest major currency whilst the GBP is the 3rds strongest major currency. Whilst this doesn't go in our favour, if we dig a little deeper we can see why we are actually fundamentally bullish on the GBP over the USD. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning we saw a decrease in both long and short positions for the USD so this is neutral whereas for the GBP this is an entirely different story. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning on the GBP we saw a massive increase in long positions whilst also seeing a massive decrease in short positions so this is very bullish for the GBP and this looks like to us, early signs of possible bullishness to come for the GBP. With the technicals and fundamentals both pointing to buy the GBPUSD we get a bullish outlook for this pair. This position will also help to hedge our USD positions as we are heavily involved in the USD currently and with this position we're able to make money if the USD goes up or down because we're hedged. At JPI we like to hedge certain positions when we're exposed as this allows us to better manage our risk and with such a bullish setup on GBPUSD this seems like a perfect pair to hedge positions against. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
28
AUDUSD - Are The Bulls Getting Ready To Push Price Higher?Analysis: When we look at price action we've recently seen a strong rejection off of an area and price is making a move back down however we see this as a buying opportunity. If we look at price action before this rejection we can see that price did indeed form a higher high and a higher low showing us that we're in an upwards trend. This higher low hasn't yet been broken so we're still in that upwards trend. At the start of June there was some real strong momentum on the AUDUSD for the bulls and it looks as if they are currently taking a break before we see a continuation higher. This position will also hedge our other USD long positions so if we are incorrect about the USD strength we expect then we will still be able to profit. As a professional trader you need to remember that your job isn't to make a million percent in a year. It's to make a consistent profit whilst managing your risk. If you can't manage risk then you won't make it as a trader and that's the harsh truth. Hedging allows you to diversify your risk which is why we like to do it here at JPI. Were price is currently is an interesting area to us because if we look left on the chart we can see price has held this zone multiple times as support previously and we expect that this will happen again as very often we see this. For more confluence we saw slowing down momentum for the bears at the start of the week as the candles were very small and were indicating a possible reversal. This was also where the 50% fib retracement level was so there was even more confluence that price was going to reverse there, however we were more interested in level slightly below. Early this morning we had some worse then expected news for the AUD so we saw price push down and tag the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level and we expect that this is were buyers will be sat at wanting to push price higher. With the slowing bearish momentum that we saw this week around the 50% fib retracement level and with the 61.8% fib retracement level being tagged this "golden zone" which is just the area between the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level looks like a great place to enter long from especially from our area which is also in this "golden zone". For more confluence we also have an upwards trendline. This trendline is better seen on the weekly timeframe. When this level has been touched before we've seen bulls step in and push the market higher so we'd expect this to happen again. This trendline is below our entry but above our stop loss so if we we're to go into drawdown then there would be a strong level where we'd expect buyers to step in so this gives us more confidence in our setup. Why don't we enter at this trendline then? Well where price is at currently looks like a stronger area for possible reversals and we don't want to miss this trade as it's a good setup. The upwards trendline is just another confluence to add to our bullish thesis. Fundamentally as of the most recent report on institutional positioning the USD is the strongest major currency whereas the AUD is the 6th strongest major currency so this doesn't go in our favour. However if we dig a little deeper you can see why we currently prefer the AUD over the USD. As of the most recent report on institutional positioning we saw a decrease in both short and long positions on the USD so this is pretty neutral but on the AUD in regards to the most recent report for institutional positioning we actually saw an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions which is very bullish. This could be early signs that we could see some bullishness for the AUD in coming weeks. Although the AUD news this morning wasn't positive we still have loads of confluence factors pointing to bullishness on the AUD which is why we have an overall bullish view on AUDUSD. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
16
Is this the End of US Dollar Dominance? The US dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged as countries become eager to insulate themselves from Washington’s influence. For decades, the dollar has dominated the global monetary system. Currently, about 60 percent of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks are in US dollars, and nearly 90 percent of all currency transactions involve the use of the dollar. However, the dollar's reserve status began to decline in 2014 when some major global powers began to de-dollarize their business dealings. The War in Ukraine, and the subsequent sanctions that it inspired have accelerated the de-dollarization process. For one, Chinese authorities were surprised by the seizure of the Russian central bank's foreign exchange reserves following the Ukraine invasion. In the event of a conflict between the US and China, Chinese assets could also be at risk. Recent de-dollarization events include: During a press briefing at the Davos forum in January, Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan surprised journalists by stating that the oil-rich nation was willing to consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar for the first time in 48 years. Last week, Chinese and French energy companies completed the first-ever deal on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China using the renminbi yuan currency. The trade involved the import of 65,000 tons of LNG from the United Arab Emirates and represents a significant milestone in Beijing's efforts to challenge the US dollar's position as the universal "petrodollar" for gas and oil trade. Brazil has also recently announced an agreement with China to trade directly in their own currencies, bypassing the US dollar as an intermediary. India is also making efforts to reduce the US dollar's dominance in international trade by launching separate programs to settle transactions in their own currencies. The Reserve Bank of India recently allowed central banks from 18 countries to open special Vostro Rupee Accounts (SVRAs) to settle payments in Indian rupees. Overall, the US dollar's share of the global market has decreased from 71 percent to 59 percent over the last two decades and could shrink even further in the future. The primary victim in this scenario is the United States, as currency usage in global trade is a zero-sum game. Each time a yuan, real, or rupee is exchanged on the global market, a dollar is not. If credible alternatives gain steam, the dominance of America in the global market will be compromised.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCNH rollover TO 6.72 RIP DXY With the looming BRICS news I have turned my eyes to the Yuan/ dollar pair to ride the short for the exit of the Petro dollar. THIS IS A Q2 SWING MOVE This will not be a linear drop FYI! Very very choppy as US will attempt to pull out all the stops to avoid the collapse of the Dollar safe haven. Top Down Analysis: Using the Monthly I plotted out the High resistance of 7.329 aka the highest strength of DXY from early Q4 2022. Major support lies at 6.30 We are monitoring right now and looking to enter a trade if we can get a close under 6.82 as that takes out bullish sentiment. From 6.82 we can catch 1000 pips down to 6.72 as the liquidity will gain bearish momentum. (Q1 Double bottom low) Another 1000 pips down can be a bear trap at 6.61 so we will try to take 50% profits shortly after 6.72 is taken out. This is a High volatile trade and can be aggressive in trend. Please trade with caution. ****** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE******
Short
by chestephens1
Watching divergence on USD indexUSD index has formed divergence. Looking at the daily chart, we can see a familiar pattern forming between price and the 10 CCI. This pattern is called regular divergence, which can tell us that a possible reversal could develop. In today’s analysis, we have run over the divergence pattern we are watching and Friday’s price action, which might give it more substance. From here, we would like to see a new move by sellers that breaks last Friday’s low, and this could confirm that sellers are in control and could look to take price back down to the moving averages. 103 could offer some resistance if reached by sellers, as it was a previous level of consolidation before the last breakout. Focus now will be on sellers and if they can back up Friday’s move with a new push lower. The US has a bank holiday today, which could also be another factor for short-term volatility. Good trading
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap