USD Index ScenarioThe Index has formed an expanding triangle targeting levels below 87 (83-85 is possible).
Usdshort
$DXY_USD_Trend & Fib analysis_ Longterm to Shortterm_ €EURUSD€.Hello everyone. My name is Virginia TElphee and today I’m going to explain to you my thoughts on USD that will help us better navigate ALL forex markets in the coming months. Please note these are just my opinions and should not be considered investment advice.
Looking at this Daily candlestick chart of USD index – ticker symbol DXY a few general observations are noted. DXY is in an obvious downtrend. 92-91 proved to be a very hard level supporting price for approx. 3 months. Finally, price exploded through the level and provided many closes below the 91 level on large time frames.
Now that lower lows are confirmed it is time for the market to pullback into old support as part of its verification process. Wave analysis helps highlight the general moves. Forgive me the waves are not perfect, but I feel they are good enough.
Long term we have made a substantial move out of a coiled range. This would definitely qualify as the start of a new large cycle impulse wave count.
Large cycle wave 1 inner structure is completed by two impulse waves back to back. We are on our way to completing long term wave 2 as seen by the blue waves but understanding of wave logic we should account for alternation and do not expect another back to back impulse pattern in the short term.
This leads us to where the market is presently. As of the close of market Friday USD looks a tad bullish confirming my suspicion we are in a correction phase that will be equal to the first correction which not only satisfies the alternation issue but means our next impulse move down should be after a 3-wave correction occurs. This action would also confirm a verification that old support at 92-91 level has become overhead resistance.
So If DXY moves up to 92-91 level like I suspect I will be watching diligently for long term short positions. If the most aggressive outcome occurs and price runs down to test these lows I will also be watching for short term shorts.
Be warned if DXY has a Weekly close above 93 the wave counts and this analysis are no longer valid.
Long-term if the market moves as anticipated and the wave counts add up we should be due for 84-83 area to complete a long-term 3 wave pattern or potentially a 5 wave impulse down to high 70s
Midterm its possible we see rejection in the 92-91 levels as one impulse count closes and corrects.
Short term we move to 91 or break down below 88.50
In conclusion This means the EURUSD and all other XXX/USD currencies are midterm are bearish but long-term bullish.
USDCAD and all other USD/XXX currencies are midterm bullish but long-term bearish.
Understanding the forces of the USD is the most important factor when trading FX. If you’re firm on your direction of DXY you stand a much better chance of choosing the best opportunities out of our basket of USD valued currencies and ultimately being a successful forex trader.
If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
USDCHF short, next structure @ .95000with same structure week before this pair broke bear flag in 4H time frame, minimum target of around .95800 to complete this structure with support and fib confluence is @.95000
IM STILL GOING LONG ON THE EUROUSDHere on the Euro I am expecting a huge bullish increase throughout this first MONTH of the year there may be an intense pull back to trap the incoming and the year end sellers but for the overall directional bias on the Euro Usd I see gains for the Euro over the dollar.
I am expecting gains on the EURUSD currencyHere on the Euro I am expecting a huge bullish increase throughout this first week of the year there may be an intense pull back to trap the incoming and the year end sellers but for the overall directional bias on the Euro Usd I see gains for the Euro over the dollar. Look for long positions , and only react to price action!!! happy trading
NEO-USD Short - Critical Price PointNEO has been building a great base of support, and a myriad of legal/governmental policies around the world--namely, China-- have been driving this currency into the forefront of "next-to-emerge" Cryptos that are traded against the USD and other Fiat currencies. Currently, NEO is sitting right on it's "steep" upper growth channel, but has potential to go either way depending on the Moving Average indicator alignment as well as which channel NEO ends up in (at close on 12/7/17).
Summary :
2 sets of indicators showing good predictive capacity--7-day, 3-day, 2-day MA in conjunction with each other often set the tone for many crypto trends, as well as the basic parallel channel movement to indicate breakout up or down.
IFF: NEO closes high enough to keep the 2-day MA above the 3-day MA, which also closes in the Blue Channel, then we could see another large jump over the next couple of days (1-2 days, with upside ~$45-47).
If: NEO closes in the Blue Channel, but MAs indicate downward trend (i.e. 2-day does not cross 3-day upward), then we will likely progress near the lower limit of the Green Channel for some time with minimal swings in value (~$31-36); however, this scenario still has good upside for a near-future breakout (3-5 days).
If: NEO closes in the Green Channel, but near the lower limit of the Blue Channel, we should see a relatively quick bounce-back, but only moderate with respect to the recent major upswings (1-3 days). Furthermore, the following growth must surpass the lower limit of the Blue Channel for this to continue as predicted.
If: NEO closes near the lower limit of the Green Channel, we should expect a rapid , growth phase immediately following--though it may not be apparent until later in the second day--as many may panic sell in- or near the Gray Channel.
As always, be smart with your Crypto movements, don't short BTC unless you're a maniac (it's kinda fun to be that risky......but I think it's more fun to only make gains), and feel free to ask questions, comment, or share if you agree/disagree!
-Jordan
Long opportunity for next week on the EUR USDHere i have identified a long opportunity on the EUR USD currency pair, with the lower interests rate in the near future for the USD I see the EURO taking full advantage of this situation and achieving some major gains in the next few weeks ahead. I am going to be taking long positions in similar variations to what I have described here on my charts.
Happy Trading !!
short Dxy at 94.66 for a pullback at 94.06Now that we get our 2 target in long i short eh Dxy for the pullback,he is also overbought and i think 94.06 its a good pullback level or we can go more deep to the Up t-line...but i prefer said only 94.06 who match with the resistance that become support
enter at 94.66
Target 94.06
so is a go for 60 pts more
we go in 2 separete position like all time for can close 1 in profit and let the 2nd in stop +10;+15 for be safe and get profit sure .
We could see some weakness in the dollar DXYThe DXY is @ a level that could cause some weakness for the dollar. I will be watching the DXY to see how it affects my long USDCAD trade from this morning. I have identified the 2 levels that I am watching. This is not a trade idea just an observation.
GBPUSD Hourly, 2618 setup (LONG)Its been a while since I entered with this setup, but this one had a case with historical support and resistance area coinciding with the 2618. A clear double bottom, right at the level. With a break to the upside (break of the "v" point of the double bottom) followed by a 0.618 retracement - and here we already see some reaction.
Targetting retest of the previous high followed by a 0.618 retracement of the larger bearish leg - which coincide with 1.286 round number.
Stop loss below previous lows
GBPUSD (4H) Dancing with round numbers and fibonacciIm buying into the strong support showed by 0.618 fib together with 1.285 round number.
For target prognosis Im also using fib - same level, 0.618 which coincides with another round number, 1.31.
NZDUSD LONG Long NZDUSD, the pullback hascontinued to develop after the failed entry at 0.7422 (now marked as pink (w) ) because the pullback has oved from 3 waves (a-b-(w)) to a much larger 7 swing move we have moved up a timeframe to the 4 hour chart, this means that stop loss, likely lenght of trade and potential return are larger
USDJPY Short - 104 then 94 The USDJPY has changed, having been essentially flat and choppy for the last 12 months it now looks to be taking on a bearish outlook. This can be seen as a combination of the price action, the dropping economic performance as measured in the surprise index and the Trump administrations seeming failure to get anything done. Debt ceiling talks are approaching, tax reform seems like a distant dream and health care is just a mess, eventually this will take a toll and I think now is eventually.
If the USDJPY moves from a sideways to a negative stance that has significant impact on my market model, it makes it very difficult for any of the yen pairs to make progress that in turn causes the Indicies to fall (perhaps 10 or 15%) and puts pressure on the European currencies. Of course the depth of the USDJPY drop is debatable, I think with one more upward correction due it is heading to 104 and may break the invalidation level at 94, if it does then I do not know where the bottom lies.
Selling USD - This example USDJPY SHORTSelling the US Dollar, the dollar has been strong for some time however the run higher is beginning to look extended across a number of pairs.
The USDJPY is shown here, i expect it to top out around 115 and intend to use that figure as timing for trades on other pairs.
The Yen is likely to remain weak but the 115 area may be reached at the same time as the USD tops out against the Aud, NZD,CAD or euro all of which might make good trades
EURUSD - Continuing bullish Posted earlier on my telegram - t.me
We see a revisit of the previously broken falling trendline / top of bullish pennant. This area also hold fibo confluences and previous structure- and resistance zones.
I use this area as a first level to put on another set of buy orders with targets 1.13 and 1.14. We might even see a retest of a previous strong resistance level starting at 1.146.
IF we continue down, the next area to put on buy orders for me would be 1.16 and 1.13.
Only if we violate 1.11 I see this pair as bearish.
GBPUSD hourlyHere I'm trading the potential scenario where we have a retrace down to 61.8% fib of the recent bullish leg. This is then followed by a long opportunity. Will update this post when we get to this point.
Behind this idea we have a bullish reversal which is showing by change in momentum and a double bottom followed by a break to the upside (of the V point of the double bottom).
The long target is a previous support area at 1.293
Break of lower trendline, more downside momentum on DXY likelyThe US dollar index is at a turning point. For close to 6 months, this index has been in a converging symmetrical triangle that was playing out on the daily chart. During that time, many tests of both the upper and the lower bounds of the triangle have happened, but there was never an actual breakout. This has now changed.
On Friday, the DXY broke and closed below the lower trendline for the first time. It also broke the 5-month lows and it closed relatively strong to the downside. We need to see what happens next week, but my initial bet is that we might see more downside momentum. This would be in line with multiple setups I have added to my weekly watch list, where I also expect to see the dollar lose some strength. For more potential setups, have a look at my outlook for next week .
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XAUUSD Hourly, break it or make itIn our case we have trend line being hit and respected, historical support and resistance area respected thus far, 0.618 fib retracement on higher timeframe, and a 0.382 fib of recent bullish leg being our first entry.
You can see the breakout from the consolidation channel within orange.
Buying zones in strong light green.
If we close below 1260 we will most likely see at least 1250 within a near future.
UsdChf weekly time frame BearishUsdChf on the weekly time frame looks bearish. This is in line with the daily time frame which shows futher downward movement is possible. High Chance that the candle of the upcoming week will also close red.
Sell the Spikes. Stoploss at 0.9990 or 1.0020. Take profit depends on how long you want to hold this pair.
the fall is coming! (lol someone hire me!)there is sure to be a fall, just have to wait. i could be wrong, but i srsly doubt it.
waiting for the daily to pay off big time.
sad to say that this may also signal the s&p downtrend.
USD in some hot water - SELL for now - The USD seems to have suffered some after the tensions in the French elections eased up again. By no means is it over - but for now the market seems content to ease off on the fear/risk factor.
The USD has crossed and stayed below the 200 day MA (red line) - so I'll be looking for opportunities to short the dollar for the next bit. That being said, today is a "sit on your hands day" and see how the markets want to react to easing of tensions.
EURUSD - Will 61.8 hold?I've been eyeing this opportunity this since last week. Price have failed 5 times (and counting) to break and close below 1.0650 (seen on 4 hour), which also happens to line up more or less exacly with 61.8 fibonacci X-A.
We're coming from an oversold condition, momentum seems to be turning around - could this simple setup wield profit?
Overall, the break to the upside of the big triangle also gives a hint what this pair wants to do, diving down inside the triangle could be one last dip in the water before heading up.
