USDJPYHey traders, in today's trading session i'm are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 130.087 zone, once I will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Usdshort
Will the NZD rally or reverse after the RBNZ rate decision? The NZD/USD has been on an uptrend since mid-October. However, this rally may be on a temporary halt as the pair hits the upper trend line on its downward channel, as shown below in the daily timeframe chart. For now, the long-term downtrend, since the start of the year, is still intact and could signal a possible reversal for the short-term rally for the New Zealand dollar.
Fundamentals will be playing a huge part in the direction of the NZD/USD this week. The market is showing some risk aversion due to renewed lockdown worries in China and a possibility that the US Federal Reserve will not let up on its aggressive tightening cycle in the upcoming FOMC meeting. The focus for now, however, is the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) this Wednesday. Markets are widely expecting a 75-basis-points hike, but a 50-basis-points hike is still entirely possible, thus some volatility might be injected in the markets if expectations are not met.
Back to the technical perspective, there is a double top formation with a gravestone Doji candle as the price fails to create a higher high above the 0.62000 area in the 4-hour chart.
Using the Extreme Trend Reversal Points indicator (ETRP), we can identify if there is a probable reversal in this zone before the RBNZ rate decision. The triangle arrow from the ETRP signals that a possible reversal may happen in this area. However, considering the moving average, which is color-coded according to the trend strength, which is mainly green for extreme bullish, lime for bullish, silver for range, orange for bearish, and red for extreme bearish, is still indicating that the trend is still bullish. Traders who are looking for a sell signal confirmation could wait for the ETRP to change its moving average color to bearish before considering an entry.
How did the market react to soft US inflation? Huge, unexpected moves occurred across several markets after the US inflation report for October was released last Thursday. For those that missed the news, US inflation came in softer-than-expected at 7.7% (vs. 8.0% expected, and down from 8.2% in the previous month) suggesting that the US Federal Reserve's policy tightening has started to work its magic, and they might be able to start slowing the pace of its hikes moving forward. The market is firming toward a 50-basis-points rate hike from the US Fed in November now, after four consecutive 75-basis-points rate hikes. This is a scenario that some assets have rejoiced, and others lamented.
Confidence in the US dollar, as the only buy, has finally shown signs of wavering after the inflation print. The upside potential for the US dollar may be muted moving forward but we might have to wait until we see a sustainable trend in inflation cooling. Even so, DXY experienced its worst week since March 2020, falling almost 4% against a basket of its trading partners last week. More interestingly, the DXY fell -2.1% on Thursday alone, its largest daily loss in 13 years.
The forex pair that gained the most against the US dollar was the Japanese yen, up more than 5% on the week, and now trading comfortably below 140. The pound, euro, Aussie dollar, and NZ dollar all gained between 4% and 3% at the same time.
With the weakening US dollar, gold and silver climbed 5.4% to $1,770 per ounce (3-month high) and 4.1% to $21.7 per ounce (5-month high), respectively on the weekly timeframe.
Moving in line with metals, and against the US dollar, US stocks experienced a significant rally on Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s rally was its largest in 2 years with the tech heavy Nasdaq100 surging a phenomenal 7.2%, outpacing the S&P500 and the Dow gains. The Nasdaq was supported by a cratering in the US 10-year Treasury yields, which fell 30-basis-points to 3.8%.
Is USD still a buy ahead of US CPI So many factors are affecting the currency markets right now that it can be hard to get your head around them all.
Activity is definitely centered on the US. Last week, we had the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and US Non Farm Payrolls which is still lingering in the minds of traders. The latter jobs data is pointing to a slowdown in the Us economy, but it still beat market expectations by a fair margin (260K jobs vs 200K expected).
This week we have US midterm elections, the results of which will help set the fiscal policy direction of the US for the next few years. Markets took their expectations from polling leading up to the voting, and republican ‘red wave’ was expected to materialise, removing the democrat's slim majority in the US House of Representatives and Congress. As of writing, the red wave has turned out to be more of a 'red ripple’, with the elections still in contest.
To cap off these major market events, we have the US inflation data dropping very early Friday morning (UTC +13) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Saturday
So, with all these events swirling around, is it still a good time to buy USD and sell EUR? It might all come down to whether there is any emphatic break of the pair above 1.0100 to put off the selling sentiment. As it stands, the EUR/USD does appear to be temporarily supported from falling too far below parity, but this doesn’t mean that buyers are there to take it higher, especially when we zoom out and consider the longer-term trend of the pair, and the resistance it has recently encountered twice at 1.0100. Further downside might rely on a break below 0.9800 (for a weak signal) and 0.9550 (for a strong signal) moving forward.
The aftermath of the feds fourth 75bps hike; DXY and DOW JONESIt's now official; the US Federal Reserve has enacted its fourth consecutive 75-basis-points rate hike, bringing its benchmark rate to the 3.75% - 4.00% range, which is the highest it has been since January of 2008.
The markets reacted quite mildly to the rate hike at first, due to it aligning with exactly what the market was expecting for the past few weeks. Expectations strengthened for another 75-basis-points (typically an outsized hike) after September's hotter-than-expected inflation reading that arrived in October.
The mild reaction soon gave way to volatility, as US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell began to deliver his address that customarily follows an interest rate decision. Investors were intensely curious about this address as it is an opportunity to glean information about why the decision was made and how the bank is thinking about future hikes. What they were specifically looking out for included statements concerning the intensity and pace of rate hikes moving forward, concerns held for the state of the US economy, and responses to recent data drops.
What we learned from Powell’s address
Stocks actually spiked at the onset of Powell’s address, buts quickly gave up gains when it became apparent that Powell is not seriously considering a slowdown in the pace of its rate hikes just yet, like that which has been seen in Canada and Australia. It will be interesting to see where US stocks head in November after recording huge bumps in October, which in part has been attributed to an expectation that the Fed might slow its pace. For one, The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its best month since 1976, climbing more than 13%. Powell noted that he expects to start talking about slowing the pace with his colleges within the next two meetings. The special note that it could be within the next ‘two’ meetings is what lent it a veil of non-urgency.
Perhaps the most important note of the address, Powell confirmed that the bank has revised up its expectation for peak interest rates from 4.6% to 5.0% after digesting the data that had been released in October. This note has helped put the US dollar index (DXY) back on track to its 20-year high of 114.00 recorded in September. Much like stocks, the DXY’s reaction reversed its direction drastically after the market caught wind of the Feds revised terminal rate. Before the reversal, the DXY was on its way down to 110.00, before spiking to almost 112.00.
USDJPY to 125!Thanks to DXY pumped up to old Lower High point which is 146. All indicators at highest level and making divergence is a sign to go down.
USDINR Short 2HRTF based on 3 simle indicatorsIndicators:
200EMA
Bollinger bands
RSI
Trade conviction:
RSI Daily TF strength is declining
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Reversal set for last week’s worst performing pairs? USD/PKRBy the close of last week's trading session, the top 3 worst performing currency pairs came out to be the USD/PKR (-4.91%), NZD/USD (-2.61%), and USD/SEK (-2.04%).
To help determine the direction that these pairs will take this week, we will use the Hacolt Indicator (Vervoort Heiken-Ashi Longterm Candlestick Oscillator). Will the pairs continue to slide, or are they primed for a rebound in response to the huge selloffs?
The Hacolt Indicator helps to confirm the strength of trends. When the indicator presents green, the market is expected to trend upward, and when it is red, it is expected to trend downwards. It can also be used as a trend switch signal, suggesting a potential turnaround or a pullback on the current trend.
Starting with the USD/PKR, just like the USD/SEK, the Hacolt Indicator shows a green bullish signal. However, strong resistance at 240.00 created a double top formation on the daily timeframe, which resulted in last week’s downward move for the pair. The price may head towards 224.00 and even 217.50 if the Hacolt indicator gives a red bearish signal this week.
For the NZD/USD, the Hacolt Indicator, on the other hand, shows a red signal which indicates that the pair is still on a downtrend. The trading candle last Friday also ended closing below the 0.5626 support area, which may suggest that the price for this week for the NZD/USD would likely continue going down, potentially targeting the lows from March 2020 at 0.5469.
Lastly, the USD/SEK, and the Hacolt Indicator shows a green signal on the daily timeframe, possibly indicating that the uptrend is still in favor. This indication contrasts with the current downside move in the candles. If the Hacolt Indicator gives a bearish red signal this week, we might see the price retesting the 10.80 price level. A final target might be around the 10.45 support area. Overall, the trend is still bullish though, so look out for support formation in key psychological area around 11.00.
GBPUSD Short M15 is overbought
There is a double top with divergence
This trade is with the trend
There is a buy pattern 300 pips below
DXY - watch for short term downsideGood morning everyone,
DYX has been pulling back, sending both EUR/USD and GBP/USD to multi week highs.
Under this backdrop, the trendline that's been holding since February 4th 2022 is on the cards over the next days. Let the price consolidate around the levels it is right now and if some corrective pattern (bear flag, parallel channel) develops between @108,5 and @109, you can either go short by putting an entry order around the previous support (now resistence) @109 ( more agressive ) or wait for the reversal to confirm itself by breaking @108,3 level . Either way, my aim is for the price to touch the trendline mentioned before with the first target on the way there being @107,62.
If you have any questions, feel free to comment or get in touch.
Wish you all the best trades,
PTFX
Disclaimer: This post does not provide any kind of financial advice. It is for educational purposes only and solely supported by my understanding of the technical figure based on wave theory.
USDJPY - watch for short term downsideGood morning everyone,
Watch short term downside after reversal pattern started developing and fundamental backdrop is supportive of potential yen strength from - Bank of Japan just released a note saying the weakening of the yen as a result of its yield curve control policy is not desired . This could mean the target for rates could be lifted, thus lifting the yen as the rate differential to the US could shrink. Therefore, wait for small consolidation and consider going short USD/JPY. The first target is the round level @140, though it could happen quickly since positioning is very heavy on USD longs, that could in turn be squeezed.
If you have any questions, feel free to comment or get in touch.
Wish you all the best trades,
PTFX
Disclaimer: This post does not provide any kind of financial advice. It is for educational purposes only and solely supported by my understanding of the technical figure based on wave theory.
USDJPY - Daily Trade Idea - 9-Sep-22USDJPY (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1, TP 2 , TP 3 and EXIT (SL) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
DXY monthly forecast ahead of NFP At August’s close, the USD can be said to have performed exceedingly well against its trading partners. The DXY climbed 3.2% over the month. Now it heads into a very important Non Farm Payrolls result, and investors will be looking for clues as to the USD’s next move.
The Non Farm Payroll data for August is released on September 2, 2022, and is perhaps more eagerly anticipated than normal. The reasons for this are detailed in Monday's market review Pound and gold head lower before NFP data.
The worst performing USD pair over the past month has been the Pakistani rupee (USD/PKR), which fell by more than 8.0%. But this movement against the USD was far from the norm.
The movements of other currencies include:
GBP/USD, fell by 5.2%
NZD/USD, fell by 2.9%
EUR/USD, fell by 2.1%
AUD/USD, fell by 1.9%
USD/INR, rose by 1.4%
USD/RUB, rose by 1.7%
USD/CAD, rose by 2.1%
USD/CHF, rose by 2.5%
USD/JPY, rose by 5.3%
We can look at the DXY chart on the monthly timeframe to try to ascertain whether the USD can sustain this upside momentum.
Thus far, technical analysis is maybe suggesting that the US dollar still has plenty of space to move toward the upside.
The monthly candle’s 107.500 resistance area, which is now broken, opens traders to scope out higher levels of resistance including 110.00 and 116.500. The former of which the Dollar index is currently butting up against.
Further afield, traders may want to keep the 2-decade high of 120.000 in the back of their mind. Such a lofty prediction is seemingly backed-up by an upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
On the other hand, traders should be wary as well. The price could also create a monthly pullback as the Williams %R indicator is currently planted in the extreme upper range above 20%, which indicates that the price might be in overbought territory.
DXY Sell Setup.This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
EURUSD BULLISH OULOOK CONTINUESEUR is slowly gaining momentum against USD, after ECB raises borrowing cost, although the terminal rate of the currency remains unchanged and the risk for the Italian bond due to the political situation in the country.
On the other hand, USD is giving up to the EUR due to the decline of treasury yields after some concerning data regarding factory activity and unemployment benefits.
RSI's slow moving line is bouncing off the oversold zone and it's slow line is way above it. MACD histogram is also above the 0 line confirming bullish trend.
If the trend continues, it might test its previous high at 1.06, but if we see a reversal, the currency might try to test its parity again.
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FOREX ANALYSIS :USDCADFX:USDCAD
The blue and red lines mean: I think prices can return in these areas.
Green lines mean: I think the price can reach these areas. They are therefore known as transaction targets.
If you want to use this deal, please risk only one percent of your account balance.
Time to Sell USD.This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
EURUSD Could see some upside by inflation printing softlyThis pair is positioning in a key area.
The price is at important demand zone. The price is having problems to break below this zone.
The price is below a 1hr trendline right before the upcoming cpi catalyst
The CPI (consumer price index) will be key for what direction the market will take. It is important to keep in mind that markets are already expecting inflation to print softer in April, by quite a bit actually with consensus expecting headline to slow to 8.1% from 8.5% and Core expected to slow to 6.0% from 6.5%
DXY Dollar Index : History in the making , close to 40 year lookWorst national debt in history topping $30 trillion USD.
Pandemic damages still lingering and causing shadow of doubt.
Global tensions of war add and economical sanctions hurt tech companies, import, export and more.
The only shining fundamental light is interest rate hikes. .50 or .75 or 1 percent make very little difference when the economy revolves around overnight crypto jumps of 100% as a daily thing.
Now let's look at the technicals -
Most overbought weekly RSI 14 that is pretty much imaginable, happened only 6 times in the last 38 years - A rating of around 80.
Horizontal resistance around 103-104 stretching all the way back to 1885 that was confirmed 2020, 2017.
Gold is keeping solid ground at the high 1800's with bullish weekly trend-line kept.
Don't fall for spikes, be smart, trade safe.
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FOREX ANALYSIS :USDCADFX:USDCAD
The blue and red lines mean: I think prices can return in these areas.
Green lines mean: I think the price can reach these areas. They are therefore known as transaction targets.
If you want to use this deal, please risk only one percent of your account balance.
USDCAD, price topped out, short term correction to form. Hi Traders,
Looking at the price action on USDCAD, you can see a few bullish continuations which bulls took off, however has seem to fail to push any higher. Instead, we saw a reversal Impulse which should give us a short term correction.
I do expect another leg higher in next coming week or so, keep an eye out on this pair for the next impulse.
Good Luck!
I would love to hear your analysis on this pair. Share a comment below and let's discuss it.
Thanks!
Outlook on USDCAD: Bearish play seenOn the H4 time frame, prices are testing resistance at 1.2650, in line with the descending trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement where we could see further downside below this level to our support target at 1.2530. This support target coincides with our Fibonacci confluence levels which include the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is testing resistance as well where we could see a reversal below this level.
