USDCAD buy or sellSupply and Demand Trading on the USDCAD
Always wait for confirmation. Something like a Re-Test before you enter the trade.
Therefore USDCAD could go up or drop.
Usdshort
$DXY $UUP USD likely correction soonThe manufacturing recession in the US was unexpected apparently.
USDJPY SELL TP_105.20_2.18%_2.339pips_SL_107.92_0.36%_0.387pipsUSDJPY SELL TP_105.20_2.18%_2.339pips_SL_107.92_0.36%_0.387pips
USD showing signs of weaknessThanks for viewing,
Well the theory goes that the US is weak but the rest of the world is weaker, so the US market will continue on up which will support the currency. Maybe so, I am just looking at the chart.
What I do see, is an overvalued equity market and extremely low return from treasuries, which could result in global buyers looking for value elsewhere. The country where I am now pays 8.5%pa on 2 year government bonds and the inflation rate is 3.32% presently - which is far and away preferable to netting less than inflation in US treasuries. Unfortunately, they have been burned before denominating government debt is USD and now limit foreign buyers and only accept local currency. Which is just a small local example of the de-dollarfication trend. If you want decent returns, it seems you will need to sell your USD and invest in emerging economies with younger populations and growing middle classes and / or buy gold and silver.
If my Elliot Wave count is correct, we have seen a weak (wave (B)) correction upwards, that has retraced 65% of the previous steep drop. The multi-year rise has been slow and steady, but far from convincing. There are now clear signs of bearish divergence on the weekly time-frame. It was this divergence that got my attention a few months ago. This isn't a trade, it is just something worth watching. If the decline picks up, 83 would be a reasonable expectation. Of course, the DXY basket is 57% Euros and Europe is tipping into a recession, but this is how it is looking like playing out from the chart. Let's see how it unfolds.
Protect those funds everyone
USDMXN Bounce-PlayTwo possible scenarios:
1. USDMXN will create the next shooting star soon after reaching 20-- this new high and possible psychological resistance, and expecting it to drop back near 19.5 (or lower, possibly at 19 instead which is the 61.8 fib) by next month, or
2. USDMXN will continue rising near 2018 high esp if DXY tries to reach 100 before bouncing down as expected
Either way, this pair is pretty much overbought and due for a strong pullback, especially if we look at its weekly price action, recent bullish candles aren't as big as those back between April-June 2018 and October-November 2018.
Weekly:
Confidence: B (possible for this pair to reach new highs esp if market gets more risk-off overall while at the same time continue pushing DXY to climb to 100 faster-- after already pricing in the 2nd rate cut by Fed this coming September)
Weak Dollar play on different pairsDate Pair Direction Trade Trend Level Signal Entry
2019-08-04 GBPUSD Long Counter Trend Down Horizontal Support Indicision break
2019-08-04 EURUSD Long Counter Trend Down Horizontal Support Pin Bar break
2019-08-04 AUDUSD Long Counter Trend Down Horizontal Support Pin Bar retrace
2019-08-04 USDCAD Short Counter Trend Up Horizontal Resistance Pin Bar retrace
Mind position sizing.
US DOLLAR INDEX DXY - LET THE REVERSAL BEGINDollar Index - Weekly chart - After patiently waiting ( for monthss!!) for dollar index to rally into the weekly supply zone for a reversal, we have now reached this point and can anticipate a share reversal/decline for dollar in the coming weeks to months.
I would not buy USDDXY W TF parallel channel. Not a good idea to purchase USD. August candle will be black.
USD Probable Price Paths Dollar potential price paths we are tracking still working on the premise that we likely see a Dollar high in the coming weeks
The Great DeflationDeductive Thoughts: Global interest rates continue their decline towards zero. Soon, most major economies will be under the pressure of deflation. On the one hand, negative interest rates have shown to be not viable to boost inflation, risking a debt crisis of the private sector piling up "free" loans. On the other hand, quantitative easing also shown to be not viable, risking a debt crisis of the public sector piling up private debt.
Inductive Thoughts: Global economic policies will need to change this coming year, or a reason to inflate must be put forth. Major economies cannot sustain previous growth rates as they begin to fill in to all the available room. Two possible solutions: War; or Mars. Wars are infamous for their spur of inflationary periods. However, a global effort to colonize Mars would prove just as potent to spur growth.
The Trade: Sell USD and buy GOLD into the devaluation of the dollar. Sell stocks, sell bonds (interest rates are not returning to previous levels, so bonds no longer safe haven).
Another reason why DXY should fallUSDX - there is strong resistance at 98.4-.6
Almost no momentum left for USDX to rally further
Engulfing Patterns on USDCHF and AUDUSDSome engulfing candle patterns have formed against the USD on the USDCHF and AUDUSD.
So I am shorting the USD by shorting the USDCHF and longing the AUDUSD.
Here is the chart of the AUDUSD:
Here are my entries in my trading log :
Date Pair Direction Trade Trend Level Signal Entry
2019-05-20 USDCHF Short Counter Trend Up Horizontal Resistance Engulfing retrace
2019-05-20 AUDUSD Long Counter Trend Down Horizontal Resistance Engulfing retrace
