Usdshort
DXY / USD likely scenario well into 2019Thanks for viewing.
I count 5 small waves up in wave b from 94.43 to 95.74 (of (b) (of B)). My view and we are now about half-way through an upward correction (wave (B) that is part of a larger ABC correction down. I will be watching for the end of wave (B) to not exceed 103.82. If that occurs I will expect wave (C) to the mid-80s.
If 103.82 isn't exceeded and we get a nice wave 1 and wave 2 in a 5 wave down-move, I will be buying JPY, AUD, GBP, NZD, gold, possibly platinum, and silver - for a ~12 month hold. I expect all of these currencies (at least vs the USD) and precious metals to get rather tightly squeezed for the rest of the year.
Summary, minor move down over the next month or so,
then, a larger strong move up (wave (c) of wave (B)) that should take us to the end of 2018,
afterwards, a much larger move down (wave (C) - into the mid-80s) in late 2018 early 2019.
The reason for my bearishness? Despite being a bear in general, I can't feasibly count anything other than 5 waves down from 103.82 to 88 meaning it is one half (slight less or slightly more) of a larger downward correction. Good luck everyone and feel free to throw me a like, some comments, or criticism (I am not too careful with my wave degrees).
I am not a professional, a financial adviser, an experienced FOREX trader, or anything other than an independent amateur contributor so please do your own research. Good luck everyone.
Dollar Index ResistanceHey traders! Hope you're having a good day wherever in the world you are :) So today I bring forth to you the dollar index which just doesn't seem like it doesn't want to give up it's monstrous run up in the past few weeks... until now I hope. I've drawn in what I think might be a good area of resistance and you know what that means. Time to look for shorting or long opportunities that are paired with the dollar and/or even commodities such as Oil, gold, etc.
So get to it and lets make some $$$$.
Look for shorts in USDPLNIts OK to short USDPLN as it reached the fib arc level and is forming double top on 4 hours chart. Price will do the Elliot 1-5 wave cycle all the way down to the 0.5 fibonacci level - Gann angle, where it will make Elliott ABC correction and then will go up again...Watch closely the previous patterns as its again repeats the previous moves that I highlighted. The first Elliott wave should be to 0.38 fib level 3.63684 (first TP)
EUR USD - Interesting setupHello folks , come back to the forex! Today is the first friday of the month , so NFP USA , it would be surely a high volatility day because of this big impact news for the dollar. So my advice is to take position after the news , after the big volatility , but if you have a more aggressive approach , forget what i said! So there is a descending trendline that accompanied the EUR USD falling , now looks like is forming a triangle and this zone might be a good point to go long , with a SL below lows and TP around 1.20700 previous support zone, another reason is the strong falling , looks like need a retracement and this is what we want to take. Don't take that as financial advice and be careful to trade today , it would a high volatility day. Have a nice day!
USD CHF - NFP DAYPrice has been rejected 3 times from 1.0000 psychological wall. in 15 minutes timeframe got a strong bearish candle , i would take this signal with a SL above 1.00000 and tp1 around 0.99200 , a previous support zone and tp2 0.98400. So i think it's clear what's my position about USD today. Obviously as i said in the previous idea , be careful to trade today cause it would be a high volatility day. Have a nice and profitable day traders!
USD JPY - An inverted H&S?Morning traders! Today let's see USD JPY , in lower timeframes in my opinion there is some short opportunity until 106 zone , price has been rejected from 108 zone 2 times and that's an important resistance zone , while in long term , into the daily timeframe i've seen a potential inverted H&S , is still forming , it's just a potential signal so don't take that like a certainty but it's always interesting. Usually i don't trust really much about '' macro patterns '' as H&S cause sometimes think that some traders '' force '' the pattern but this time might be an important opportunity. Stay tuned and have a nice day traders!
$DXY_USD_Trend & Fib analysis_ Longterm to Shortterm_ €EURUSD€.Hello everyone. My name is Virginia TElphee and today I’m going to explain to you my thoughts on USD that will help us better navigate ALL forex markets in the coming months. Please note these are just my opinions and should not be considered investment advice.
Looking at this Daily candlestick chart of USD index – ticker symbol DXY a few general observations are noted. DXY is in an obvious downtrend. 92-91 proved to be a very hard level supporting price for approx. 3 months. Finally, price exploded through the level and provided many closes below the 91 level on large time frames.
Now that lower lows are confirmed it is time for the market to pullback into old support as part of its verification process. Wave analysis helps highlight the general moves. Forgive me the waves are not perfect, but I feel they are good enough.
Long term we have made a substantial move out of a coiled range. This would definitely qualify as the start of a new large cycle impulse wave count.
Large cycle wave 1 inner structure is completed by two impulse waves back to back. We are on our way to completing long term wave 2 as seen by the blue waves but understanding of wave logic we should account for alternation and do not expect another back to back impulse pattern in the short term.
This leads us to where the market is presently. As of the close of market Friday USD looks a tad bullish confirming my suspicion we are in a correction phase that will be equal to the first correction which not only satisfies the alternation issue but means our next impulse move down should be after a 3-wave correction occurs. This action would also confirm a verification that old support at 92-91 level has become overhead resistance.
So If DXY moves up to 92-91 level like I suspect I will be watching diligently for long term short positions. If the most aggressive outcome occurs and price runs down to test these lows I will also be watching for short term shorts.
Be warned if DXY has a Weekly close above 93 the wave counts and this analysis are no longer valid.
Long-term if the market moves as anticipated and the wave counts add up we should be due for 84-83 area to complete a long-term 3 wave pattern or potentially a 5 wave impulse down to high 70s
Midterm its possible we see rejection in the 92-91 levels as one impulse count closes and corrects.
Short term we move to 91 or break down below 88.50
In conclusion This means the EURUSD and all other XXX/USD currencies are midterm are bearish but long-term bullish.
USDCAD and all other USD/XXX currencies are midterm bullish but long-term bearish.
Understanding the forces of the USD is the most important factor when trading FX. If you’re firm on your direction of DXY you stand a much better chance of choosing the best opportunities out of our basket of USD valued currencies and ultimately being a successful forex trader.
If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!