Get started

USDTRY

Remittent 10-Year Journey of Turkish Banks #1 (Akbank) Akbank, one of the largest banks in Turkey have devalued -86.18% in last 10 years against United States Dollar . Even though most of the Turkish Banks are listed cheaper than a bottled of water, why foreign-investors still keep liquidating their positions? There have been many political, economic and geopolitical changes since 2010 in Turkey. Whilst these have been never seemed an issue by Turkish people, liquidation of foreign investment capitals from Turkish Industries proves that we are getting closer to the light at the end of the tunnel. The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
BIST:AKBNK
by UnknownUnicorn2854563
ridethepig | Thoughts and Themes in TurkeySwings and position building We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and real money continues to sit on the bid. On the monetary side, the CBRT cutting by 50bps was widely expected although wont make much difference at this stage. EM FX will remain under pressure if we see a broad risk-off environment this week. Keeping a close ear to the wires for any updates on swap lines, those looking for positioning in USDTRY should always think about loading in a safe place. Such a shelter will render us a superb shelter when the storm hits shore... A massive 30% macro swing after an obvious mistake from Erdogan. Turkey will remain sluggish until they expose the issues underneath, the correct idea would be to put pressure on CBRT which is what markets are doing and show no signs of stopping in the Short-term. Here 7.80 would be the measured target in the shelter then profit taking can begin again. As with any swing, it is important we assess the downside to see if we find something which is to our advantage. The dollar devaluation is the only technique that the Fed can construct, the only defence left in the toolkit is -ve rates and like a scout putting up his tent we must prepare. Depending on how quickly markets begin to price negative rates in USD, we may fail to complete the mission towards 7.80.
Long
by ridethepig
3
#USDTRY spotted in a Bear flag.Hey, I am back with another idea, this time looking at Forex pair of USD/TRY USD/TRY pair has been spotted in a bear flag, which is considered as bearish formation, strong in downtrend and also as the EMA's are getting tighter, there is move likely to happen soon at this level. I would short this pair at the resistance area. Have a good luck with trading, don't forget to stick to your strategy. Each new follower and like is very much appreciated! 🙌
Short
by TiborVrbovsky
1
The recovery momentum of Turkish lira investorsThe recent rate cut from the Turkish central bank has stopped the recovery momentum of Turkish lira investors. As of writing, it’s seen that the pair is gradually gaining once again and this time, it’s believed that bulls will bring it back to its resistance. However, it’s still uncertain whether bulls will have enough strength to break the pair’s resistance as the Turkish economy gradually reopens. Meanwhile, late last week it was reported that the Turkish central bank eases its official interest rates, or otherwise known there as a one-week repo rate from 8.75% to just 8.25% as expected prior. Bullish investors of the pair immediately saw an opening to gain again following the central bank announcement. However, as the move was still in line with expectations, it didn’t cost major losses for the Turkish lira immediately. Economists are still warning that the consecutive rate cuts are putting intense pressure on the Turkish lira and the country’s economy.
Long
by Financebroker
How Will USD Bull Run Continue USD is - still bullish, - has consistent volume, buys are slightly increasing since the beginning of the year. - made the bullish flag in previous year. - hit the bottom of the uptrend channel that validates the target zone at the top of the channel. - Turkish economy is still in fragile-five. Correction to 6.70 (Fib Level 0.236) is possible. It is up to you to wait for that scenario. Entry Zone : 6.70 - 7.00 TRY (Fib Level 0.236) Target Zone : 9.00 - 10.00 TRY (Fib Level 0.786) Stop : 6.40 TRY (Outside of the uptrend channel) Expire Date : Mid 2021 Psychological Levels : 9 - 10 - 12.5 p.s. This is not a trade advice. Do your own research and take your own risks.
Long
by aozan88
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.04.29All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long USDTRY, if we do not see concrete measures around the Fed swap line then expect macro players to stick the knife into Turkey once more. There is little to see to the downside, I will actively look to add longs on any dips should we see them towards 6.90xx otherwise to the topside we have very very soft resistance at 7.00. A break above will open 7.235x and 7.80x main targets. The move played is a demonstration of a winning macro one, the main line comes down to the pursuit of safety; capital is forced to flee a dictatorship, but the flight itself can be beset with difficulties as more and varied restrictions are conjured. Tread extremely carefully for those invested in Turkey. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs. Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending. Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside. Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target. But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4. Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it. The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4. Top correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0% 2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2% 3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2% 4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5% 5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2% 6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8% 7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1% 8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1% 9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2% 10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6% Top correlation 1 day 1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2% 2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3% 3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9% 4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4% 5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4% 6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5% 7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6% 8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3% 9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2% 10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3% Top correlation 1 week 1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0% 2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9% 3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8% 4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5% 6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3% 7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5% 8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5% 9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1% 10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
Long
by ICFX
7
#USDTRY #USDTL #USD #TL $ #ELLIOTWAVEusdtry elliottwave perspective view Alternative 1) If it sees around 6.50 (green area) and turns up and is permanent on the red line (above 7.30), the rise started. Alternative 2) If it falls below the green area, it sees around 6.00 (pink area), the rise begins. 7.30 is also important in this. 7.30 must be exceeded for real rise. Alternative 3) Cannot hold in the 1st Pink area. It falls to around 4.50 (2nd Pink area). After this fall, the journey to AY begins. my favorite 2nd alternative
by elliottwave_auc
USDTRY: WeeklyAs you see, current bullish move was already predictable from October 2019 using TD (DeMark) breakout projection no. 2. Now, price is facing very strong support - May central pivot range (CPR), May Camarilla S3 reversal level, yearly classic S2 pivot, yearly Fibonacci S3 pivot (did not plot the last 2 to have it more clear - but they are there) all at same point, confluence with May S3 reversal level. If this level holds and price is rejected, what is also possible, it will bounce up and continue in uptrend or range above monthly CPR. If price breaks through monthly pivot range, as it is moving quite decisively into it and we have got that weekly pin bar reversal on top, short trade may be taken to former yearly roof R4, now support. At any case May CPR (I highlighted it black) is a fulcrum which holds the price now. If it is pierced through, that is it. After reaching highs, Turkish lira makes those descending ranging tails. What might be a scenario here. But there is a concern - price missed April pivot and April CPR, did not even test those. Such things occur at the onset of strong trends. Next month (or be it a day, week, depending on chart) price pulls back to the pivot and continues higher. So it is very important what happens at May CPR (that highlighted black zone). Price should move lower and touch S3 - May pivot. Then we will react depending on how it will behave after that. S4 is May floor. May roof R4 was pierced, that should be noted too. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
by ICFX
1
USDTRY 4 hrsI would consider buying USDTRY before the European session starts tomorrow morning 6-7 am UTC when spread is the smallest. The move is likely to end CAM R5, we broke the April roof. By the end of April we should be at ca 7.255. There also other technical reasons for this on which I will not elaborate. This pair has very high spread in the night and it will not move in the night much anyway. This is no financial advise. Top Absolute Correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - USDZAR 93.0% 2 USDTRY - USDCNH 92.2% 3 USDTRY - USDCAD 91.5% 4 USDTRY - ZARJPY -91.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 91.3% 6 USDTRY - EURZAR 90.8% 7 USDTRY - SPA35 -89.6% 8 USDTRY - CADJPY -88.5% 9 USDTRY - BIO30 88.3% 10 USDTRY - CNI30 87.9%
Long
by ICFX
4