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USDTRY

USDTRY | Ascending TrianglePlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. Price formed an Ascending Triangle, that is a bullish pattern. We can initiate a long position if there is a confirmed breakout of Resistance level. Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable. Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts. The information given is not a Financial Advice.
Long
by Anpu
1
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end. On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels: In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sticking The Knife In TRYTurkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the breakout we traded unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
USD/TRY will continue to move higher in the following daysThe pair will continue to move higher in the following days to retest its 9-month high. The escalating tension between Russia and Turkey is an opportunity for the United States to improve ties with Turkey. In recent months, the US-Turkey relations fell. This was after Ankara purchased Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. Turkey is a member of the US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). As part of the group, the country was able to purchase US’ most advanced fighter jet, the F-35. America argued that F-35 is not compatible with S-400. On Monday, February 03, Russia-backed Syrian government forces killed five (5) Turkish soldiers. This has put the future relations between the two (2) countries in question. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the Assad government will face consequences for killing its soldiers. Furthermore, US killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani is beneficial to Turkey.
Long
by Financebroker
Watch for downside consolidation breakout in EURTRY and USDTRYThere is a potential to trade a downside breakout of the consolidation (lira continues to increase) into wedge/triangle support. The price target is the rising trendline on both the USD/TRY (near 5.75) and EUR/TRY (just above 6.4). A stop loss goes above the consolidation. The reward:risk is 1.25:1 to 1.5:1, but over a week or two the rollover would add to the potential profit. The Turkish lira interest rate is 11.25%. The US rate is 1.75% and the EUR rate is 0%. The short trade picks up the interest rate differential. A long trade pays the interest rate differential. I am not interested in the long, only the short, if it materializes.
Short
by CoryMitchell-CMT
2