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Usdtrysell

USDTRY-NEUTRAL to upsideThe weekly chart is of stagnant, and we are kind of used to that by now. The question is, where do we go from here in such a quiet market. Looking at the cloud, we are far above it and this gap requires to be filled over time. The SMA strength Indicator is trying to break above the 9-MA period, and I feel this signals a sharp up move. My preferred scenario is medium- to long-term SELL and since I expect higher levels I would add to existing shorts that we may have around 14.50-14.75 and add more 15.50-16.50 range. The log-term objective is still 10.50-9.00. So overal I would be positioned short.
by peterbokma
USDTRY- LT SELL strategy No change in view. Daily or weekly chart does not give much direction, and judging other weak currencies, we have witnessed a strength last few days/week. this will add to likely TRY strength as well. From a medium-term to long-term perspective we should see a move back towards 9.91 FIB , but personal think first 10.50 before lower and we may expect a correction from that level at first. It is not going to be a one way traffic. The strategy is, BE ALREADY SHORT and ADD @ 15.25-15.75 and again above 16.50-16.75.
Short
by peterbokma
2
USDTRY-SELL strategyWe are building up upwards momentum a bit, and one could expect 15-50-16.50 to be reached in the near term, is my personal view. I am not a supporter of going long, because of costs factors associated with longs. The daily chart is overbought, and we should see a move back towards 14.00 once again. The weekly chart is kind-of neutral to upside, and not extremely overbought as yet. The monthly chart is way overdone, but history shows we had more severe levels. Summing up strategy: short-term SELL current 14.850-15.00 and take profit 14.00. medium-term to long term SELL 14.85 and 15.50 plus 16.50 for a move back towards 10.50 - 9.00 (even possible I think). Fundamentally the larger move down will take time due to the ongoing situation.
Short
by peterbokma
1
USDTRY-SELL strategy upside biasThe pattern starts looking as if we may see strong run up. Both daily and weekly chart has positive stochastic and we have established 13.98 as a base once again. I understand the cost nature of being long is not good, therefore rather we trade it only medium-term for now. SELL strategy is SELL 15.25 > 16.50 for now. I think we may see higher then 14.60 this time due to weakness in RUB and it will drag the TRY along a bit plus higher oil prices should increase the inflationary picture world wide. The over view is down toward 10.50 - 9.00 after we have gone higher at first.
Short
by peterbokma
2
USDTRY- SELL with upside biasThe RSI is still very high 86.6 and the stochastic is positive. The scenario I feel is, that we will again move upwards short-term 14.50-16.00 (it's a medium-term view right) and we will only add or SELL in those ranges to create a valuable average for the down move to 10.50 -9.00 after the climb. The issue is, it is costly to be LONG and one cannot be sure when or how long the move will take to go upwards. I personally focus on SELL but picking the higher levels and will await patiently for that.
Short
by peterbokma