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Usdtrysell

USDTRY - LONG TERM SELLbesides the medium-term SELL weekly RSI 93.0 and the Daily RSI 80.0 the MONTHLY RSI is almost 89.0. We are about 1.50 pis above the BB top and viewing history, the correction was severe downward. Further, we have HAMMER TOP on monthly chart, a signal that suggests we may turn the tide. I remain having the view SELL is the way to go, and regardless we may see some spikes, this is opportunity to add small increments to our existing shorts. the monthly chart objective is likely to be 9.0000. For the weekly chart its 10.3700 currently.
Short
by peterbokma
2
USDTRY- LARGE DECLINE EXPECTEDThe USDTRY is setting up for a large decline. The FALSE BULL FLAG pattern suggest the danger on downside and not upside. Perhaps Central bank raises by surprise interest rates instead of what is believed to lower the interest rates once more this month. the change of the head of central bank no doubt has placed the currency in a tail spin, and all what is required to understand inflationary pressures with interest rates offset. Anyway, market is pricing in disaster hence the decline will be swift and unexpected. I see 11.00 > 10.32 as my objectives. Therefore sell 13.30-14.00 anywhere up really but again in very small increments to remain safe. Long is the wrong thing to be is my personal view.
Short
by peterbokma
7
USDTRY - SELL SELL SELL SELLGot lot's of remarks and statements that I do not understand Erdogan etc. Well, yes fundamentals and market psychology drive market, and those are build in charts. Hype and fear has always existed. Anyway, looking at history regardless reasons, if it's overdone it's overdone. Central banks can make extreme decisions, for example EURCHF peg, French Central bank raising short-term rates to 1,000% to defend currency (I was trading that market) Ok Erdogan has his ways and central bank has lowered interest rates while inflation is much higher so we have negative interest rates. My strategy remains careful sell current 13.5000 (and our long-term short USDTRY already in position) will pay overtime. In the end of the day it's an individual decision what side to be on. Question is, what if central bank raises short-term interest ates to defend the currency? the only thing that can happen, is to complete peg the currency or change it to a new one.. then question is what value will it be set at?
Short
by peterbokma
USDTRY - SELL SELLThe USDTRY has climbed back and is trying to retest the highs. The GANN resistance is strong, and even a spike may be a short moment of time only is my personal view. The RSI daily chart above 80.0 again and the weekly still 92.0 which is a strong message of caution. Strategy SELL current 12.85 - 13.15 for move to 11.0800 > 10.0300. Short-term expect 11.08 revisit and 10.0300 medium-term for now to release some market pressures before it can decide which way further.
Short
by peterbokma
5
USDTRY - SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELLIt starts becoming a habit, but good habits always remain. I feel strongly about remaining in SELL mode, even though it looks like a run away truck. the facts are, RSI 94.50 for Daily and nearly 88.0 for the weekly chart. An extremely high ADX and Donchian way out of line. The objective is 10.35 > 9.4200 and it will get there after the fear is subsided. from fundamental point of view, the interest rate GAP is large and selling TRY is costly. The mechanism will correct itself and market will normalize. The value of TRY is too weak, and does not represent the true value as it is now.
Short
by peterbokma
2
USDTY (Turkish Lira) - SELL strategyI cannot change mind on this currency pair, and remain SELL SELL strategy. In fact, I do not see a stop-loss being useful, since we have enough parameters that are suggesting we will correct sooner than later: RSI for weekly and daily chart are very high. Secondly we are above BB band as well. The moving average have not crossed negative as yet. If one placed stop-loss, I assume somewhere 10.50 for now. Profit should be 9.2200 below and 8.37 medium-term.
Short
by peterbokma
3