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GBP/USD Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected on 14/10/2024The GBP/USD pair is expected to show a slight bullish bias today, supported by a combination of key fundamental drivers and technical factors. Traders and investors in the forex market should remain vigilant as several economic data releases and geopolitical events could shape the pair’s movements. Below is a comprehensive analysis highlighting the key factors driving this potential bullish bias for GBP/USD. 1. UK Economic Outlook One of the major drivers for a possible bullish momentum in GBP/USD is the recent strength in the UK economy. Despite some challenges in the global economic landscape, the UK has shown resilience, particularly with stronger-than-expected GDP growth and robust retail sales. UK inflation remains elevated, with the CPI figures suggesting sustained price pressure, which could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to consider further tightening measures. A hawkish stance from the BoE, which is already maintaining higher interest rates, would support a stronger pound, adding to the bullish sentiment in the market. 2. US Dollar Weakness The US dollar is showing signs of exhaustion after a prolonged period of strength. USD weakness is being driven by softer inflation data, with the recent CPI report showing cooling price pressures in the US economy. The Federal Reserve may lean toward a more dovish stance, refraining from further aggressive rate hikes. This has caused the dollar to lose some of its safe-haven appeal, providing room for the pound to gain ground against the greenback. 3. Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment The broader market sentiment is being influenced by geopolitical tensions , especially in the Middle East and Europe. Risk-off sentiment tends to favor the US dollar, but given the recent easing of these concerns, market participants may shift back to higher-yielding assets like the pound. A relief in risk sentiment can boost the GBP/USD pair, pushing it toward higher levels. 4. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD On the technical front, GBP/USD is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend in the short term. The pair has found strong support around the 1.2100 psychological level, with upward momentum suggesting a test of the 1.2250 resistance level. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is trending upwards, confirming the bullish bias, while MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) also shows strengthening momentum. 5. Key Data Releases to Watch Traders should keep an eye on upcoming data releases for further clues on the GBP/USD trajectory: - UK Unemployment Rate: A stable or better-than-expected figure could lend support to the pound. - US Retail Sales: Any softness in the US retail sector could further weaken the dollar. - BoE Governor Bailey's Speech: Any comments on future monetary policy tightening could provide additional bullish support to the pound. Conclusion The GBP/USD is expected to exhibit a slight bullish bias today, driven by strong UK economic fundamentals, cooling US inflation, and broader market sentiment. The technical setup also favors upside potential, with the pair poised to target higher resistance levels. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor key data releases that could shift market dynamics throughout the day. Keywords for SEO Ranking: - GBP/USD analysis - GBP/USD bullish bias - UK economic outlook - USD weakness - Bank of England rate hikes - UK inflation - US inflation - US dollar outlook - Forex trading strategies - Technical analysis GBP/USD - BoE monetary policy - Federal Reserve rate decision - Geopolitical risks forex - Trading GBP/USD in 2024
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
XAGUSD - USD Continues To Get Weaker?Analysis: Upwards trend (bullish confluence factor) Break & retest of previous area of resistance for support (bullish confluence factor) 38.2% fib retracement level touch (bullish confluence factor) Upwards trendline close by (bullish confluence factor) 6K long position decrease for the USD (bullish confluence factor) Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by jpeacockfx
12
NZDUSD - The USD Will Continue To Fall!Analysis: Upwards trend (bullish confluence factor) Retest of an old support level (bullish confluence factor) 61.8% fib retracement level (bullish confluence factor) Upwards trendline touch (bullish confluence factor) NZD is the 5th strongest major currency whereas the USD is the 3rd strongest major currency (bearish confluence factor) 2K short position increase for the NZD (bearish confluence factor) 8K short position increase for the USD (bullish confluence factor) Comments: Despite the strength of the US, the USD has been pretty bearish for a while now and it looks as if this could continue. We're pulling back into a strong area which we expect to hold as resistance for the DXY, meaning that we could then see a continuation to the downside which in turn would favour our idea on NZDUSD. Whilst we don't have all of the confluences pointing to bullishness, we still have the majority showing bullish signs. With the confluences we have on NZDUSD along with the technicals we have on the DXY we expect to see the USD continue its bearish move to the downside, pushing price higher on NZDUSD. This is what gives us our bullish bias. Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
16
XAGUSD - Silver Continues To Rise?Analysis: Taking a look at the chart we can clearly see that price is in an upwards trend. We're forming higher highs and higher lows which helps confirm this as well as the upwards trendline that is present. Price today has pulled back to an area of interest to us as this level previously held as resistance. As we know resistance often becomes support when broken so this previous area of resistance looks like a place where we could see buyers step in and push price higher. Looking at our extra confluences we don't have a fib retracement level of a trendline that lines up with our area however both of these confluences are close by, but this isn't why we took this setup. We took this setup now as we're at an area of possible support and we have the fundamentals in our favour. Fundamentals are what drive the markets so if we have a strong fundamental bias then that is more of a reliable signal then any technicals would be. Fundamentally recently we've seen the USD become weaker and as of the most recent report for COT data we saw an increase of 7K long position but we also saw an increase of 8K short positions on the USD so this is bearish for the USD, meaning that this is a bullish confluence for our bias. Overall we have a strong fundamental reason to be bullish on this pair and we've seen an opportunity present itself on the technical aspect as well. This is why we are currently bullish on Silver. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by jpeacockfx
8
GBPUSD - Pullback Before A Continuation Higher!Analysis: Looking at the charts we're clearly able to see that price is in an upwards trend. We've been forming higher highs and higher lows which shows us the trend we're in so knowing this we're only looking for long setups on this pair. We also have a key level which we've marked out where we've previously seen a strong rejection from but we've since broken higher and we're currently retesting this previous level of resistance for support. As we know resistance very often becomes support which is what we're expecting to happen now. To further add to our idea and why we think price will head to the upside from this level, we also have the 38.2% fib retracement level. Whilst this isn't the strongest level we still do often see this area hold and with this fib retracement level being at our area of support we expect that it will hold and we'll see buyers step in, pushing price higher. Another confluence factor that we have is the upwards trendline that is present. When this trendline has been tagged before we've seen buyers step in and push price higher. This trendline also lines up with our area so we have a really strong level of support which is why we think this is a good place to enter. The fundamentals as well favour our idea. Currently the USD is the strongest major currency whilst the GBP is the 3rds strongest major currency. Whilst this doesn't go in our favour, if we dig a little deeper we can see why we are actually fundamentally bullish on the GBP over the USD. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning we saw a decrease in both long and short positions for the USD so this is neutral whereas for the GBP this is an entirely different story. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning on the GBP we saw a massive increase in long positions whilst also seeing a massive decrease in short positions so this is very bullish for the GBP and this looks like to us, early signs of possible bullishness to come for the GBP. With the technicals and fundamentals both pointing to buy the GBPUSD we get a bullish outlook for this pair. This position will also help to hedge our USD positions as we are heavily involved in the USD currently and with this position we're able to make money if the USD goes up or down because we're hedged. At JPI we like to hedge certain positions when we're exposed as this allows us to better manage our risk and with such a bullish setup on GBPUSD this seems like a perfect pair to hedge positions against. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
28
Sell USD & BUY High Interest Rate Currencies (RUB, BRL, MXN, ZARWe take a look at why the U.S Dollar is structurally on a bear trend against the High Yielding Emerging Market currencies. Two factors are going against the U.S Dollar. 1.) Low-interest rate differentials 2.) Negative Current Account Balance + Increased Fiscal spending increasing this problem for USD. These four setups are popular trades across investment bank trade recommendations, due to the carry trade attractiveness using the U.S Dollar and a funding currency to purchase and profit from these high yielding currencies. Video cut out due to Tradingview's limit but you will fully understand the fundamentals driving these trades and then using technicals to time our entries.
Short
by KayansMarkets
1
USD/JPY - SELL OFF On Trendline ResistanceHello Traders!, We have hit our mid-week analysis for this trading, USD is still showing us signs of further weakness, possibly for further weeks to come. What Is The Market Telling Us? We've been in a healthy downtrend for 3 weeks now, market is showing no signs of a reversal as our trend resistance is being respected Trendline resistance is being respected for the 4th time, we have bearish confluence with a strong bearish pinbar reacting to our resistance Overall trend s bearish, lets take full advantage of this current USD weakness in the market right now! When Should We Enter? Since we've just had a bearish pinbar candlestick pattern appear exactly on our trend resistance, SELLING now would be recommended If we are being more conservative and want to wait for more ocnfirmation, sell once there is a bearish closure below our trend resistance
Short
by forexwithfred
XAU/USD - Gold To Rise Further with FOMC DecisionHello Traders!, With the FOMC deciding to keep its interest rate at 0.25% as well as keeping its printing of money at $4billion per day for the next few months, its given investors a dovish sentiment on the USD, this means that the dollar will be dropping as Gold rises on the other hand. We will be looking at how fundamentals play a part in the market for todays analysis What Is The Market Telling Us? Bullish upside momentum with 14EMA crossing over 200EMA & 50SMA Price has broken past 1720 resistance and respected trendline, awaiting pullback towards these levels before more bullish momentum continues Recent bullish engulfing candle is a result of FOMC interest rate decision & reaction from bouncing off 200EMA When Should We Enter? Will enter upon a pullback towards the broken trendline or 1720 resistance Wait for a bullish closure above these important areas before looking to BUY
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by forexwithfred
EUR/USD breaks above 1.1400 after Fed’s meeting The EUR/USD on the 4-hour time frame has been following an uptrend recently. The pair broke above the 1.1400 level on 20 March and registered the highest level of period under study at 1.14477. The recent jump in the price came after Federal Reserve left interest rate unchanged. Fed also projected no interest rate hike in 2019. The price jumped from 1.13471 to 1.14477 on the 4-hour chart on 20 March, price above the 200-period moving average and RSI above 50 supports the bullish move in the EUR/USD. The 4-Hour chart of the EUR/USD confirms the positive sentiment in the price movement as the pair is making successively higher tops and higher bottoms. All three indicators confirm the positive bias in the market. As the chart shows, price is well above the 200-period Moving Average. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is recording values above the zero-line which shows positive sentiment in the EUR/USD. RSI (Relative Strength Index) showing values above 50 which supports the bullish sentiment in the market. Bulls are in full control of the market as the price is above the 1.1400 level. In alternative scenario, key support level lies at 1.13471, bears need to break this level in order to regain bearish momentum.
Long
by FXTM