US Dollar Index Fade Trade FOMC USD is rallying pre the big show on hawkish FED bets ahead of the FOMC meeting May 4th. Bond market speculators have aggressively priced in multiple FED rate hikes in the coming 12 months and its going to be very hard for the FOMC to be as hawkish as the market.
The 2017 highs were seen just at the start of US rate hike cycle as well and very often we overshoot.
So given the positioning in the market ahead of this meeting and the key resistance a reversal after the meeting is both needed technically and makes sense from trading game point of view.
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Usdx
U.S. Dollar Index Weekly TA : 04.27.22As you can see, the next target of the dollar index has been reached and is now trading in the 103 range. Note that this range is the highest level in the last 5 years and we have to see if the high inflation in the United States can cause the break of this 5-year resistance level or not ...
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 04.27.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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Potential crash of BTC/USDAs you can see, my two charts are USDX and BTCUSD. Using the monthly timeframe we can see a resistance level on USDX which has been respected twice. Price is coming up to this zone very soon, and on HTF, USDX is overbought using Stochastic RSI .
BTCUSD has been respecting this upwards trend line since around July 2020, becoming more volatile in recent years. As we can see, both are coming to test their respective zones in the near future. Bulls will be looking for the BOS with US Index and for BTCUSD to respect the trend. Bears will be looking for US Index to respect resistance, and for BTCUSD to push down.
What we saw in 2020, on the second rejection of support, was a small crash of around $7000 dollars in BTC price (highlighted in red). Now the market has a larger volume, and higher volatility, should USDX respect resistance, we could see a crash in BTC.
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Read if you want to survive in this jungle !!Fellas, look at the all the ideas being shared on TW these days. With every pip the chart goes up people share ideas ordering you to buy 1000 pips :))) With every pip the chart retracing, fools share ideas and ordering you to sell expecting 1000 pips dump.!!!
If you want to survive this wild jungle use your brain and trade based on your own setup or at least avoid accepting every dumb idea you see. Peace fellas !
US DOLLAR SHORTFrom my technical analysis, MONTHLY & WEEKLY timeframes are well positioned at the resistance level. Daily timeframe has shifted structure. I will advise you to wait for 4H to change market structure to short.
This is for SWING traders but for shorter term traders, you can adapt this to your strategy.
For next week, I will be looking for long opportunities in Both EURUSD AND GBPUSD. Also a short opportunity in USDJPY.
Cheers fam!
DXY - Decades of a weakening US dollar.●● Preferred count
● U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) : 🕐 1M
Globally, the dollar follows a positive trend in a submillennium wave.
It is expected that the subwave (b) of ((IV)) will take the form of a side correction in the form of a triangle , followed by an exit from the model down. The completion of the locally negative phase within the Grand Supercycle ((IV)) wave will most likely fall on the price area of the previous fourth wave, the beginning of which is the peak (III) , level 63.5 .
The counting was based on the developments © pr0 (RSWA), published in the material “The Hypothesis of the Fractal Lag of Sociometers”.
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● U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) : 🕐 1W
Triangle Ⓑ of d , I want to note, I have been predicting since May 2020 . Strengthening within the subwave (C) is ending, a decline is expected within the zigzag (D) .
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● U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) : 🕐 1D
Wave (C) of Ⓑ is forbidden to go beyond the top (A) , level "invalid." . In the event of a breakdown of this level, the wave count will require revision.
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● U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) : 🕐 4h
Within an eight-hour timeframe, I consider two options for interpreting wave (C) : a double zigzag W-X-Y and a rare triple zigzag , the second of which is marked on the slide below ↷
Both options allow local continuation of growth within the ending diagonal ⓒ of Y / ⓒ of Z .
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●● Alternative count
● U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) : 🕐 1W
The alternative remains the probability of exiting the triangle upwards, in case c of (x) goes into complication up to a double zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ .
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DXY AnalysisHey traders, in the coming week we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 96,5 zone. i highly recommend to take a look at DXY at the beginning of every week if not everyday. that will help you to spot USD pairs direction and trade them in a more professional way.
Trade safe, Joe.
For History: Possible Global Economic Crash LevelsFor history: A major global economic crash is highly possible, if #USD_Index hits one of these three levels:
a.101.5
b.105.8
c.109.8
105.8 has the highest crash probability. The crash might not be at the exact levels, the reaction could occur around the levels. This is a long term analysis based on 1 Month chart. It will take months and probably years before it actually happens (IF IT HAPPENS).
#economic_crash
#global_crisis
DXYHey traders, DXY have formed a good bullish flag, that's a good sign if you are looking forwards executing some xxxusd short or usdxxx long the coming week. I highly recommend you to analyze DXY every end of the week if not everyday, that will help you to spot the direction of USD pairs and trade them in a more professional way.
Trade safe, Joe.