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USDZAR

USD/ZAR (The overdue pullback is here) View On USDZAR (6 June 2023) USDZAR is in * Down in short term (Intraweek) * UPtrend in Mid term (Intramonth) * UPtrend in Long term (Last 3 months) USDZAR is in the strong up trend in recent months/year and it shall be about to change for now. I am expecting some pull back in USDZAR and it might be better to stay in the Short side for a while. 18.2~18.5 will be a nice support region. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Short
by SonicDeejay
3Q2023 USDZAR weekly timeframeBack in January I predicted that the USDZAR pair will climb to the 2020 high of 19.35 if the rand fails to hold the pair below the critical support rate of 16.80. We’ve seen this move play out, and then some, which saw the rand slide to an all-time low of 19.90 this week as the pair completed its 5th major impulse wave. Now it’s time to look at what lies ahead for 2H2023. The critical rate to watch is at 18.66, the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement rate… Based purely off the Elliot wave theory I predict that the pair will fall into an ABC corrective pattern in 3Q2023, similar to the corrective pattern we saw in the 4Q2022. The first support range (S1) for the pair sits between 19.15 and 19.35 (the blue 23.6% Fibo retracement rate and the 2020 high). A break below this range will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 18.66. A move into support range 2 (S2) will complete wave A of the ABC corrective pattern. Support range 2 coincides with the bottom of the blue upward channel that the pair is currently trading in as well as the top of the previous third impulse wave. I don’t see the rand gaining enough momentum to pull the pair below support range 2 at this stage. Thereafter, the pair will retest S1 as it flips from a support to a resistance and the ABC corrective pattern will be complete after the pair falls back onto the critical support rate of 18.66. A break below 18.66 in the 4Q2023 will allow the rand to pull the pair out of the current upward black parallel channel and into support range 3 (the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate at 17.92 and the bottom of the ABC corrective wave at 17.67) which coincides with the 50-week MA currently at 17.64. This scenario is the best-case scenario for the rand in my opinion. For the rand to pull the pair below S3 we would need to see another strong bull market in the commodity cycle. Conversely, if the critical support at 18.66 holds its ground the pair will remain in the upward black channel which will send the pair higher in the 20.00’s. Weekly technical indicators: The weekly RSI suggests that the rand is heavily oversold at the moment which will allow the rand some breathing room, on paper. The weekly MACD is still holding a strong buy signal, but it is showing signs of fizzling out and rolling over. Overall, the technical indicators are supportive of a rand pullback into S1 and possibly deeper into S2. We have to wait to see how the market digests the NFP’s print later today but as it stands the pair could generate a hammer candle which will indicate the top of the current wave, which is also supportive of some relief for the battered rand. Fundamental factors: The fundamental factors are unfortunately stacked against the rand. I’ll start with the factors I deem as rand positive. Rand positive: • For those familiar with my USDZAR ideas, I always look at the price of precious metals, particularly platinum as SA is the world’s largest platinum producer by a country mile (I’ll do a separate idea on platinum and link the idea in the comments). The platinum price topped out around $1130/ounce this year in April and has fallen roughly 12% since then. The metal is however finding support around the $1000/ounce level which is positive for the rand and platinum. The price of platinum looks set to remain supported by the fact that the platinum market is expected to remain in a substantial deficit this year, largely due to the sanctions imposed on Russia and SA’s mining production constraints largely caused by the current electricity uncertainties. (www.reuters.com) • Regarding the liquidity landscape and US monetary policy, it seems as if global financial conditions are easing, and excess liquidity is rising, which will allow the rand to hopefully attract some foreign fiat given the rand’s carry trade appeal. Short-term rates seem to be peaking not just in the US but globally. Once global rates have peaked, it will allow the market to price in a future cyclical upturn for the US economy. Longer-term yields will capture this sentiment by moving higher as investors will prefer riskier assets (such as the rand and SA bonds) to reap the rewards on buoyant liquidity conditions. The US debt ceiling debacle will also be resolved soon which will bring investors at ease that more fresh liquidity will hit the markets. Rand negative: • The rand negative factors are largely due to the ongoing geopolitical factors, but before we get into that I’d just like to touch on SA’s trade balance. Earlier this week SA’s latest trade balance results were released, and the trade surplus is fizzling out. The last three trade balance totals were R10.71 billion, R6.30 billion and the latest balance stands at R3.54 billion. This decline in SA’s trade surplus is rand negative. • In terms of the geopolitical landscape and SA’s electricity uncertainties things aren’t looking pretty for the rand. The SARB’s Financial Stability Report from May 2023 did not make for pretty reading. The major idiosyncratic risk, which is still fresh to market participants, is the deterioration of SA’s diplomatic relations with the US following the comments by the US Ambassador to SA on 11 May 2023. Despite the claims being baseless, SA’s non-alignment stance in the conflict in Ukraine is hugely rand negative. The SARB highlighted the risk of secondary sanctions which could be imposed on SA due to the neutral stance. US Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, also explicitly warned SA when she visited back in January this year, to take the sanctions imposed on Russia seriously. Coupled with the Financial Action Task Force grey listing of SA financial institutions in February this year the potential implications for the SA economy are severe. If secondary sanctions are imposed on SA, it will make it impossible to finance any trade or investment flows, or to make or receive any payments from correspondent banks in US dollars. Furthermore, more than 90% of SA’s international payments, in whichever currency, are currently processed through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) international payment system. Should SA be banned from SWIFT because of secondary sanctions, these payments will not be possible. • Additionally, the SARB highlighted SA’s electricity uncertainty and deteriorating rail and port infrastructure. In connection with the declining infrastructure is the amount of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) debt relative to SA’s emerging market peers. SA has one of the highest SOE debt among emerging market currencies and as the government takes over the SOE debt the local tax payer and bond investor will have to foot the bill. • The above-mentioned factors have led to a mass exodus of funds out of SA and as mentioned earlier, local investors will have to absorb the sell-off from foreign investors. The proportion of SA Government bonds held by foreign investors has declined from 42% in April 2018 to 25% in February2023. If you got to here, I highly appreciate you taking the time to read and review my idea <3. I’ll update this idea as 3Q2023 progresses.
by Goose96
3
USD/ZAR pre SA GDP printThe rand has now posted convincing gains in the past three sessions off the back of an increase in global investor risk appetite following a strong US NFP’s print on Friday and the conclusion of the US debt ceiling debacle. An ABC corrective pattern seems to be the most likely move for the pair at the moment as per my previous idea linked below. The rand has managed to pull the pair into the first support range (S1 on the chart) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is now firmly in the rand’s crosshairs. A break below S1 will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the psychological rate of 19.00. The rate at 19.00 is will probably show some strength but I expect the rand to pull the pair lower onto the 50-day MA rate of 18.64 which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the bottom of the current upward channel. Looking at the fundamentals there is not much supporting the rand but the expected increase in debt issuance from the US following the raising of the debt ceiling will allow risk assets such as the rand to soak up some fresh dollar bills. The 1Q2023 South African GDP results will be released tomorrow and expectations are for a year-on-year 2.2% growth print, up from the disappointing results of 0.9% in the 4Q2022. A print in line or higher than expectations will boost the heavily oversold rand, but we’ll have to wait and see how the SA economy fared given the low electricity supply in the 1H2023. In terms of the technical indicators, there is a cross over sell signal on the daily MACD and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to drop before hitting oversold levels.
Short
by Goose96
TARGET reached for USDZAR unfortunately to R19.80!It was written in the charts. The USD ZAR formed the Symmetrical Triangle on the daily. The price consolidated and squeezed until it reached the Apex. Then because the prior trend was up, the breakout was up and lead to a continuation in the trend. The price then went to a dire R19.80! Let's hope it forms a Buy Side Liquidity order block for Smart Money to sell into and bring the price back down. But with what is going on with South Africa coalescing with Russia and with Eskom's issues, the confidence rate is dropping hard... Sorry South Africa. The most beautiful country with amazing people and the government is messing it up!
Long
by Timonrosso
1
An Unexpected Twist: ZAR Might Gain Strength When Least ExpectedIn this different trading idea, we want to bring attention to a potential shift in the USD/ZAR currency pair that goes against popular belief. Despite widespread negativity, we see a chance for the South African Rand (ZAR) to gain strength against the US Dollar (USD). While USD/ZAR has been bullish (going up) for a while, there are signs that things could change. Looking at the monthly chart, we notice some technical factors pointing to a possible turnaround for ZAR. These include elliot wave analysis and a strong trendline formed on the monthly timeframe Remember that trading against the crowd comes with risks, so it's important to manage those risks wisely. Develop a plan that considers potential market reversals and unexpected events. Pay attention to important price levels and use stop-loss orders to limit losses if needed. While others might dismiss the idea of ZAR gaining strength, thinking differently can sometimes lead to unique opportunities for traders who are willing to explore alternative possibilities.
Short
by Abdulkadir2205
1
USDZAR | Monthly Chart | Outlook USDZAR as we can see that it recently broke a crucial level around 18.50xxx during the course of this month creating new highs around 19.5xxxx. Looking to the right we can see the if USDZAR closes above 18.50xxx at the end of May, we can expect USDZAR to push further up to touch 20.50xxx - 20.70xxx before attempting to come back down to settle around 17.5xxxx - 16.2xxxx. Given the current economic climate of South Africa and all the challenges the country is facing, the overall out look still seems bleak for the ZAR and we can expect to see it weaken further against most if not all major currencies as it ventures further to new historic lows/levels.
Long
by mosa_moshka
7
1H2023 USD/ZAR (weekly timeframe)Background (a quick look back): The rand's covid recovery, on the back of the Fed’s QE infinity policy and a strong commodities rally, ended in June 2021 after the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 13.40. The rand got hit by a quick one-two in the middle of 2021 as the DXY found support around 90.00 and the local riots in July which saw the local unit tumble to 16.40 by November. This created the first major impulse wave. The rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 14.40 in 1Q2022, but the party ended when the Fed started its current interest rate hiking cycle at the end of the quarter. Platinum prices also topped out at $1156/oz in the beginning of March 2022. The hiking cycle, external geo-political, global recession, local energy uncertainties and a 28% decline in platinum prices (from March to September) pulled the pair into a 5-wave rip tide (orange channel) to a yearly high of 18.60. The final quarter of 2022 saw the rand stage an ABC corrective pattern which allowed the local unit to pull the pair onto the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 16.86. The main factors which supported the rand’s recovery was the DXY which fell off its high of 114 in September and the price of platinum which bottomed at $825/oz in the same month. Platinum has since gained roughly 32% and closed on a high of $1088/oz in the first week of January 2023. Present (where to next): The rand managed to pull the pair onto the critical 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 16.80 from the covid recovery (green) in the first week of January 2023 after a stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report sent the DXY and US 10-year yields tumbling. The critical support range between 16.40 (top of impulse wave 1 and 50% orange Fibo retracement) and 16.80 will give an indication for the rand’s trajectory in 1H2023. The 50-week MA rate of also sits satisfyingly in this range at 16.47. Support: A break below 16.80 will allow the rand to test the 50-week MA and the bottom of the support range at 16.40, the top of the major first wave. A break below the support range will invalidate the major 5-wave impulse wave which could see the pair fall between the orange 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 15.88 and the 50% green retracement rate of 16.09. The best-case scenario for the local unit in my opinion is an appreciation onto the 200-week MA rate of 15.61 (this move does not seem highly likely now since the Fed is only expected to ease/pause its hiking cycle in the 2H2023). Resistance: The first resistance rate which needs to give way for continued rand weakness sits at 17.30, the top of the orange third wave. A break above 17.30 will allow the pair to climb to the top of the corrective wave B at 17.96 and the psychological rate of 18.00. A close above 18.00 will confirm the fifth impulse wave to the covid high of 19.35. Technical indicators: The weekly RSI is still trending upwards since hitting the oversold range in June 2021 and is current at a neutral level of 49.21 which is rand negative. The weekly MACD is currently holding a sell signal which is rand positive but the gap between the 12 and 26 EMA’s seems to be closing. (SA is the world's leading platinum producer and the rand behaves like a commodity currency hence the emphasis on platinum price action in the description)
by Goose96
3
aFew Trendline basics ♧"A overview in the definition and importance of using trendlines , consolidation and breakouts in trading" -Understand the basics of drawing trendlines, identifying consolidation and support and resistance levels. Get familiar with connecting highs and lows and forming a trendline or reconize consolidation. -Run with the runners by understanding market momentum. Identify runners and follow their trend and use other tools for identifying presure on the runners (such as RSI4) and manage the risk while trading in profit. -Trading the reversal of the breakout as a cycle and understand the breakout and its significant counter value. Identify the breakout and entry points. Recognize the signs of a reversal and exit the position to trade the reversal to the breakout. In this lecture, i hope to cover the basics of drawing trendlines, how to identify runners and trade with them, and how to trade the reversal of the breakout as a cycle. By the end of the lecture, you should have a solid understanding of how to use trendlines to your advantage in your trading strategy. " Trendlines are lines drawn on a chart that connect two or more price points, used to identify trends and potential trading opportunities. Knowing these basics of drawing trendlines, identifying runners, and trading the reversal of the breakout can be a powerful tool when traders look to identify trends and determine entrys & exits points and potential trading opportunities." There are three types of trendlines: uptrend, downtrend, and horizontal (or sideways) trendlines. - Uptrend lines connect 2 a 3 higher bulls (uprising bars), - Downtrend lines connect 2 or 3 lower bears (downsetting bars) - High & Lows trendlines connect high with hights and Low with lows - Horizontal trendlines occur when the price remains relatively flat. • Drawing the trendline and understand the basic is by identifying at least two points on a chart and draw a line that connects them. The line should be drawn along the slope of the trend, either up or down. • Highs and lows trendlines are realized by connecting highs with highs and lows with lows. You should draw a line that runs along the top of the highs. When connecting lows, you should draw a line that runs along the bottom of the lows. • Support levels are price points where demand for an asset (EURUSD) is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further, while Resistance levels are price points where supply is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. Run with the runners and understand the market momentum. Market momentum is the strength of the current trend in a market and the momentum can be positive (upward trend) or negative (downward trend). Runners are assets with strong positive or negative momentum trends. Traders can identify runners by looking for assets with strong upward price movement, high trading volume, and positive news or market hype. Tools for identifying runners are the use of technical analysis tools such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI4), and trendlines. Managing risk while trading with runners is the way traders gain profit. Stop-loss orders should be set and avoid trading with too much leverage is necesary to manage risk while trading with runners. Trade the reversal of the breakout as cylce. Understand the breakout and its significance when they occure as an asset's price moves beyond a key support or resistance level, indicating a potential trend reversal and identify potential breakouts and entry points by the use of trendlines and technical analysis indicators to take entrys and exits. Recognizing the signs of a reversal as they occur when an asset's price movement changes direction, signaling a change in trend. Signs of a reversal may include a change in momentum, a break in a trendline, or negative news or market sentiment. Exit the trend for trading the reversal of the breakout should be accomlplished throught soul desire, set profit targets and or the use of a trailing stop-loss orders to manage the risk or take profit while trading the reversal of a breakout. "Support and Resistance & Consolidation" A consolidation occurs when the price of an asset moves within a range, between a defined level of support and resistance. Consolidations can provide traders with opportunities to identify potential breakouts and to trade with runners as they move the price towards the breakout level. Support levels are price points where demand for an asset is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further, while Resistance levels are price points where supply is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. "Trendlines can be drawn to connect the highs and lows of the price movement during the consolidation period. These will form the upper and lower boundaries of the consolidation range." "Technical analysis tools such as Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Moving Averages can be used to confirm the consolidation and identify potential breakout levels." During consolidations, runners can be identified by looking for assets with a consistent pattern of higher lows or higher highs. Traders can buy when the price is moving towards the resistance level and sell when the price is moving towards the support level. You should set stop-loss orders and avoid trading with too much leverage to manage risk while trading in consodilations ranges. Potential breakout levels can be identified by looking for price movements that break through the upper or lower boundaries of the consolidation range. Traders can enter a long or short position once the price breaks out of the consolidation range. Stop-loss orders can be placed below the support level for a long position or above the resistance level for a short position. Managing risk while trading the breakout is through a set profit targets and or use of trailing stop-loss orders to manage risk when trading the breakout as breakouts are reasons why traders intent to spot and run with runners , without jumping the gun. "Recap the lecture by knowing the basics of drawing trendlines, identifying runners, and trading the reversal of the breakout." The basics of identifying consolidations, trading with runners during, the 3 trends, consolidations and trading the breakout ..all may provide traders with opportunities to identify potential profitable Forex trades and trade with runners as they move the price more than often. "Traders use it as a powerful tool to identify trends and potential trendline breakout trading opportunities!" • HappyForexTradingJournal J
Education
by ATU_TAD
USDZAR - the rand finding friends hard to come by The ZAR (South African rand) has come up on the radar as sellers have dominated and a true buyers strike ensues. We’re seeing longer-dated South African govt bonds sell off aggressively, with yields on 25yr government debt rising above 12.5% and the highest levels since 2020. The energy shortage continues to take a toll on economics and talk of increasing stagflation risks will typically attract currency sellers – the April CPI print (due 24 May) could be important in determining if the SA central bank (SARB) is indeed ready to pause in its hiking cycle, with SARB policy meeting due 25 May. Geopolitical issues are also weighing to an extent with the US ambassador to SA accusing the country of supplying arms to Russia. Favour buying weakness in USDZAR into 19.05.
Long
by Pepperstone
Q. Why when the FED raises interest rates does the rand weaken?A. Whenever you think about a country raising interest rates, we need to consider what happens to investors and where they are more likely to deposit their money. So, as we are expecting an increase in interest rates this month from the FED, there are a few reasons why we can expect the rand to weaken further: Here are three to consider… Reason #1: Investors flock to the US Dollar When the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it becomes more attractive for investors to hold or buy US-dollar denominated assets. That’s because they know they’ll receive a higher rate when they invest in it. This will also lead to a rise in the US dollar and a drop in smaller currencies (like the rand). Reason #2: US Dollar is still the fat cat of reserve currencies A rise in US interest rates may lead to higher borrowing costs globally. This is because the US dollar is still the world's primary reserve currency. When we think of gold, Bitcoin and other precious metals, we think of how it’s priced in US dollars. The problem with this, is that emerging market countries, like South Africa, will face higher debt-servicing costs as the US interest rates continue to move up. And this could continue to put pressure on their economies which will lead to a depreciation in the rand. Reason #3: South Africa is still a big exporter Also, South Africa remains one of the major exporters of commodities. And the value of the rand is linked to fluctuations in commodity prices. So, when US interest rates rise, this leads to a stronger US dollar. And can cause commodity prices to drop (as they are generally priced in US dollars). As South Africa is a major commodity exporter, the lower commodity prices would have a negative impact in SA’s export revenue – which can in turn weaken the rand further.
Education
by Timonrosso
1
Pre-FOMC; When in doubt, zoom out.It is guaranteed to be a volatile week given the stacked economic calendar. Tonight, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps, and on Friday we have the always highly anticipated US non-farm payroll data. As per my previous idea, I got the timing wrong for my expected move to 18.55 but I’m still holding my buy orders in placed around the 18.21 level which coincides with the 50-day MA and the black 61.8% Fibo retracement rate. The rand was on the backfoot yesterday which saw the pair push up into the red resistance range between 18.50 and 18.55. The dollar is however weaker across the board this morning which is allowing the rand to pull the pair lower towards the navy-blue downward channel’s neckline. It seems as if the pair broke out of this downward channel but don’t rule out a retest of the upper neckline of this channel (support range between 18.28 and 18.33). A break below this support range will allow the pair to re-test 18.21. 18.21 is a critical support level, a break below will invalidate my expected move above 18.55 and will allow the rand to pull the pair into the blue support range between 18.00 and 18.10. The resistance rates to watch sit between 18.50 and 18.60. A break above this range will confirm my expected 5-wave impulse and the test of the yearly high at 18.71. The daily indicators are rand negative. The MACD is holding a buy signal while the RSI still has plenty room to move higher before sliding into overbought ranges. Fundamentals (latest US data prints): The writing is on the wall for a stagflation environment over the next 3-5 years. The latest US GDP print for the 1Q2023 came in at 1.1%, down from 2.6% QoQ. It is clear that the US and the Fed won’t avoid a recession or the “soft landing” bs they refer to. But wait there’s more, the recent interest rate cycle has not managed to contain inflation, gasp, with the latest PCE price index rising by 4.2% in 1Q2023, up from 3.7%. A low growth inflationary environment does not bode well for risk assets such as the rand and the recent fragilities in the US banking sector will only increase investor risk-off sentiment. All these factors are rand negative. Zooming back to the present, yesterday’s trading saw the DXY close lower after it touched a three-week high of 102.409. The DXY is firmly on the backfoot this morning and is currently back below the 102 handle in the lead up to the Fed hike. There were also some peculiar moves in the US bond market in yesterday’s session in the lead up to today’s Fed rate decision. US bond yields cratered as the US 10-year yield fell from 3.575% to 3.429% while the shorter dated 02-year yield fell back below 4%.
Long
by Goose96
USDZAR update pre-US GDP resultsThe pair is currently testing the top of the blue downward channel. A break above 18.40 will allow for a move higher north of 18.50 while a break below 18.21 will invalidate this move higher. I’m personally positioning myself for more rand weakness and a move north of 18.50 given the current risk-off back drop. My strategy is to place buy limit orders around the 18.21 support rate (small green box). I doubt the pair will break above the downward channel in today’s session given the highly anticipated US GDP results which will only be released tomorrow. SA markets will also be closed tomorrow which will increase the volatility in the pair’s price action. In my previous USDZAR idea I predicted that the pair would climb higher to test the resistance rate around 18.50 if it were to break above 18.33. The resistance rate at 18.33 however held its ground and the pair fell below the support rate of 18.11 which invalidated my previous idea. Since then, the rand managed to pull the broad-based weaker dollar all the way down onto the psychological rate of 18.00. The pair bounced aggressively off the 61.8%n fibo retracement rate of 18.01 in the last week which is indicative of a double bottom at this rate and the start of a 5-wave impulse. Fundamentally it's difficult to gauge the risk sentiment in the markets but the action in yesterday’s session is pointing to a fear trade. The both the US02year and US10year yield fell more than 10 basis points while the DXY climbed roughly 0.6% in yesterday’s session. This rush towards the safety of the bond market was largely driven by weak earnings results from the US banking sector. Tomorrow’s US GDP results will be imperative to the Fed rate hike expectations which seems to be fading given the fragilities in the US banking sector and the ongoing US debt ceiling debacle. Given this backdrop risk-off sentiment seems to have the upper hand which is rand negative. There are however some rand positive factors. The first is the SARB’s aggressive inflation fight. The SARB released their monetary policy review yesterday and inflation expectations remain well above the SARB’s 3-6% target band. This means the SA repo rate will remain high even after the SARB’s aggressive cumulative 150 basis point hike from the past three MPC meetings. The SARB’s nominal repo rate is currently at 7.75% which is rand positive given the carry trade appeal it creates for the rand. Another positive factor is the strong platinum price which has risen roughly 25% since February this year. High commodity prices strengthen the SA trade balance which is rand positive (the rand tends to behave like a commodity currency). In terms of technical indicators, the daily MACD indicator has crossed to a buy signal and the RSI, currently at 56, has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones. The shorter 1H and 4H time frames are however sitting in overbought zones which has me expecting a bit of a pull back towards 18.21 before the pair moves higher. The rate of 18.21 is the 38.2% fibo retracement rate which coincides satisfyingly with the pairs 50-day MA. The DXY is also pulling back in early morning trade which could give the battered rand some room to breathe.
Long
by Goose96
4
usdzar h8 c*h setup strong upside buy/hold setup🔸Hello guys, let's review the 8 hour chart for USDZAR today. Speculative C&H setup in progress. right now pullback/correction mode until mid may 2023. 🔸Price fractal is defined by cup structure (completed already), and the handle pattern. handle pullback/correction in progress now. will complete later near 17.80. 🔸Recommended strategy for USDZAR bulls. Buy/hold after pullback completes near 17.80. conservative TP bulls is 19/20, although this may extend a lot higher beyond 20.00. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
21
USDZAR pre-SA CPIThe support level of 18.01 held its ground last week and the rand has been on the backfoot so far this week. The pair climbed to a high of 18.33 (the support turned resistance on the 23.6% Fibo level) on Monday. Although the rand managed to pull the pair lower onto the 50% Fibo level at 18.11, I believe there is further losses on the cards for the rand as the week progresses. The latest CPI results for SA will be released in a few minutes which could be a catalyst for another move higher toward the red range between 18.46 and 18.54. Fundamentally the rand weakness looks poised to continue. The upbeat China GDP - and industrial production results released earlier this week failed to generate investor optimism and global metal prices as well as oil prices are starting to cool which are all rand negative factors. In terms of the DXY, the broad-based dollar strength has gained some traction since Friday’s aggressive push higher. Looking at the technical indicators, the 4H MACD is holding a weak buy signal while the RSI has plenty of room to move higher. The story is mostly the same on the daily timeframe with the MACD holding a buy signal and the RSI sitting around 51.50. (See the linked idea for a longer-term view)
Long
by Goose96
USDZAR 18.04960 +0.04% DAILY CHART BREAK DOWN FOR THE WEEK AHEADHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GREAT WEEKEND. HERE'S A LOOK AT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT ON THE DOLLAR/ ZAR IN THE COMING WEEK. USD/ZAR CLOSED LAST WEEK WITH SOME STRONG MOMENTUM TOWARDS THE DOWNSIDE SIGNALLING SO MOMENTUM SHIFT LEAVING BEHIND BEARISH FVG. * We have swept previous week high and multiple day candle rejections at this level. * Second candle being that big bearish momentum shift which probably created some market structure shift on lower time frames. * Looking for a continuation of this move in this coming week even though we have some trendline liquidity build up. - Looking for ZAR To take the previous lows for confirmation that we are bearish for the week. - Tap in to the OB * If we break below and close under the OB - TARGET would be the FVG that is unmitigated before continuing to the upside. lets see how it goes. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Short
by PULEMokhothu