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USDZAR

USD/ZAR pre-SARB rate decision.The SARB will release their latest interest rate decision on Thursday and expectations are pointing to another 25bps hike which will push the repo rate to 7.50%. I haven’t posted an idea on the pair in quite a while but a whole lot has happened since my last idea. March has been a very turbulent month for the local unit, but the rand is holding up relatively well in the month of March given the recent fragilities in the US banking sector. As things stand the rand has depreciated just over 1% against the dollar this month. The rand however slid to a three year low of 18.71 earlier this month but it did manage to pull the pair to a monthly low of 18.01 on the back of a broad-based weaker dollar. Currently it seems as if the pair has completed an abc corrective pattern following the 5-wave impulse which saw the pair climb from the yearly low 16.70 to 18.71 earlier this year. In the beginning of the year, I predicted that the pair would hit the 2020 high of 19.36 in the 1H2023 (I tagged the idea in this post). I’m not prepared to stick my neck out just yet to confirm my previous idea haha however a break above the yearly high of 18.71 could confirm the move as it will signal another impulse move higher. A re-test of the pair’s 50-day MA rate currently at 17.90 is still on the cards given the down trend on the daily RSI and sell signal on the MACD. The 50-day MA coincides with the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 17.91 and we would need a convincing break below this level in order to invalidate the move north of 19.00. Currently the 23.6% Fibo rate of 18.22 and the neckline of the parallel channel is holding support for the pair. Fundamentally there is not much supporting the rand. Commodity prices had a woeful first quarter off the back of the 10%+ declines in brent crude oil. Credit markets (US 10year yields) have seen massive daily swings following the fragilities in the banking sector which is eroding risk-on investor sentiment. The only thing that will be fundamentally rand positive is some degree of stabilisation of the US debt market (US 10-year bond yields) and higher commodity prices. As long as the credit markets remain unstable the rand won't be able to gain from its carry trade advantage. In summary; critical supports = 17.90 and 17.68, major resistance = 18.60 and 18.71.
by Goose96
USD/ZAR - Tentative Hello with the Feds rate decision in play we see that the Rand is getting stronger. Going down to 4hr Support level. One of two things could happen here 1. The rand could reach up again to close the future value Gaps noted on the 1hr timeframe. This will suggest that the dollar will recover. We will have to monitor the movement in this zone. 2. We could see a sharper movement downwards breaking through the 4hr support zone. This will give us good momentum for sell positions and we will move into the 18.0000 zone. At this current moment my bias is more centered around bullish momentum as noted on the 4hr TF we had strong bearish momentum. Remember price must correctly deliver both sides before we reach for any liquidity Stay Safe
by KingDee57
USD/ZAR Price Turns BearishUSDZAR Has been in an impulse phase and it has been completed with no rules violated. We are in the bearish phase of the market, we have two counts going on where it could be an impulse in the downside suggesting a long-term sell-off or a short-term sell-off as a correction meaning we are trading in a wave (C) instead. The idea of an impulse is a little complex but the idea would be to trade a wave 3 looking at the retracement it would make sense to target the 2,618. Correlating this pair to USDCAD we are more likely to have long-term sells but keeping an eye on the price level where a Zig-Zag pattern completes will be very important.
Short
by Weshareio
1
USD/ZAR target hit at R18.48 & we have another dreadful target It pains me to say our USD/ZAR trade hit the take profit level at R18.48 and now it looks like further upside for the USD is on the way. Another Cup and Handle has formed, which has broken above the neckline. And if we place the stop loss below the handle, we get the next target at R19.71. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target R19.71 With interest rates on the rise in America after Daddy Powell mentioned more upside to come, meanse investors will continue to invest in the US dollar with high income yielding assets like Bonds, Money Markets and High interest savings rates options. As long as interest rates (or the fear of them) continue up, we will continue to see US dollar strength which will bring down many other exotic currencies like the rand.
Long
by Timonrosso
Rand relief still in playI’m just revising my previous idea. My view for a pullback has not changed. On the 4h the MACD looks set to cross to a sell signal while we still have a degree of bearish divergence on the RSI. A break below 18.35 will allow the rand to pull the pair lower towards the 23.6 Fibo rate at 18.10. I do however expect some support in the range between 18.17 and 18.22. The longer-term move towards the parallel channel neckline and blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.83 (as per my previous idea) still seems probable given the overbought status of the dollar across the board. I however do not see the rand pulling the pair below 17.83-17.87 at this stage.
Short
by Goose96
Rand pullbackTechnical indicators and fundamentals are lining up for a reasonable rand pull back as per my previous idea. I expect the rand to pull the pair lower onto the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate and psychological rate of 18.00. A break below 18.00 will see the pair fall onto the critical support on the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.84 which coincide with the neckline of the broken upward channel and the black 38.2% Fibo retracement rate. Fundamentals which are supporting some relief for the battered rand are most notably the easing of the selling pressure on US bonds. The US 10-year yield declined for the past two sessions after touching a high of 3.975% and is currently sitting at 3.865%. This will in turn cause the upward pressure on the dollar (DXY) to lose momentum. Additionally selling pressure on US equity markets are also subsiding. All of these factors are rand positive as it supports risk-on investor sentiment. Technically on the 4h there is bearish divergence on the RSI while we have a sell signal on the MACD. On the daily, the MACD buy signal is rolling over while the RSI is deep in overbought zones. All of which are rand positive.
Short
by Goose96
1
USDZAR, dailyZAR remains under pressure against the USD. Now trading above the first resistance level at R18.30 area, continued bullish momentum is bringing into play a key resistance level at 18.54. Later this after the South Africa Finance Minister Mr Enoch Godongwana will be delivering the 2023 SA Budget speech. Expected swipe-saw price action from the USDZAR as the speech commences. Markets will be closely listening to comments around the current energy crisis and the Minister’s proposed solutions. Any comments not received well by the markets will likely seen further pressure on ZAR bring the R18.54 price action into play.
by Exness_Official
Wide turbulent ranges for the ZARReferring back to my long-term idea posted in January (linked below “1H2023 USD/ZAR weekly timeframe”) I believe that the pair has started its 5th impulse wave higher towards the 2020 high around the 19.30’s after the failed break below the critical support rate of 16.80. The rand has depreciated for five consecutive weeks since mid-January which has seen the local unit slide roughly 7.65%. The economic calendar for this week is a heavy one with a host of local and international events and data prints which is expected to throw the pair into a wide trading range. Locally, SA’s finance minister will present the updated budget tomorrow. The main point of discussion that investors will look out for is Eskom and it is anticipated that the government will advance their plans to take on a sizeable amount of debt from the ailing power utility. The rand also faces a potential grey listing by the FATF this week. Honestly, don’t expect any local factors that will be rand positive anytime soon. Internationally, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting results will be released which will probably just support the Fed’s recent hawkish sentiment. To wrap up the week, US GDP results for 4Q2022 will be released and on Friday the US PCE price index will be updated, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. It’s difficult to make a call how these data prints will influence investor sentiment. Despite all the above factors that are undoubtedly rand negative, the rand could pull the pair lower towards the 61.8% Fibo rate of 17.84 if risk-on sentiments flow into the markets following the FOMC minutes, US GDP and PCE data prints. The rand tends to pullback aggressively after an uptrend, it overshoots like a rubber band to the top and bottom side. If this pullback materializes, buying at rates around 17.80 may be favourable. The support levels currently sit on the psychological rate of 18.00, 23.6% Fibo at 17.95 and then the critical support at 17.83 which coincides with the neckline of the broken parallel channel. I’m personally looking to leave buy limit orders between 17.75 and 17.85. A break above 18.28/18.30 will invalidate the expected pullback. Technically the daily MACD seems to be rolling over and could cross to a sell signal while the RSI is sitting in overbought zones at 67.85 which supports this expected pullback. Two factors that also support this USD/ZAR pullback is my expected pullback in the DXY and the fact that Platinum is finding support around $920 per oz (ideas linked below).
Short
by Goose96
3
Plat finding supportThe price of platinum has since January 2023 nose-dived by roughly 16% which has seen the metal fall below its 200-day MA price of $947.60 to touch lows around $910 in Feb. The metal is however finding some support on the green 61.8% Fibo retracement level of $922.85 and the longer-term blue 23.6% Fibo. Technical indicators are supporting a move higher for the metal with a re-test of the 200-day MA looking likely over the near-term. A break above the 200-day MA price will allow the metal to claw its way higher towards the 50-day MA price currently at $1012.03 in my view. The heavily oversold daily RSI and the rolling over of the MACD indicator supports this price action, but for now we need $922.85 to hold its ground. (I’m not too familiar with the fundamentals regarding precious metal prices, some references or pointers would be greatly appreciated. I mainly watch the price of plat to support my USDZAR views)
TVC:PLATINUM
by Goose96
1
USDZAR, dailyUSD is in bullish momentum moving toward Resistance level at R18.3042 against the ZAR. The South Africa Rand (ZAR) has been under pressure following hawkish comments from the US Fed officials last week couple with hotter than expected US Producer Inflation figures (PPI) that were released on Thursday. Markets are now anticipating the US Fed to act more at its March 2022 FOMC Interest Rate Decision. The pricing probability of the US Fed interest rate decision has increased to 18.1% for a 50Bps hike vs previously being priced at 9% probability. R18.5638 is a key resistance level.
by Exness_Official
1
Short-term 4H chartThe rand had a tough week at the office last week which saw the local unit depreciate roughly 2.37% against the dollar. Risk-on sentiment gained some enthusiasm following Powell’s speech on Tuesday which hit the right notes regarding the Fed’s self-proclaimed victory over inflation. The sentiment however soured after US CPI numbers for the month of December were revised higher later in the week. The combination of negative local factors and the dampened risk-on sentiment saw the pair break past the critical resistance rate of 17.83 (blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate) to touch the November 2022 high of 17.95. Tuesday’s US CPI results for January most definitely has market moving potential which could put the rand back on the ropes but there is potential for the rand to attempt to get the pair back below the critical rate of 17.83. The bearish divergence on the 4h RSI and the rising wedge formation is signalling a move lower towards the neckline of the upward channel and the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate at 17.70. I’m planning to drop some sell-limit orders above 17.85 with a take profit area between 17.60 (blue 50% Fibo retracement rate) and 17.70. There is every possibility that the rand could pull the pair as low as the critical support at 17.50 (orange 23.6% Fibo retracement rate as mentioned in previous ideas) depending on how markets digest the latest US CPI results on Tuesday, but I don’t see the rand maintaining rates below 18.00 for too long given the current macro backdrop. A failed break below 17.50 could see the pair climb back to the 2022 highs in the 18.50’s. (I'll post a longer-term daily and weekly timeframe idea during the week. I'm bearish on the rand over the longer-term)
Short
by Goose96
6
Catching pullback zonesThe dollar strength following Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls print continued in yesterday’s session which allowed the USDZAR pair to break through the blue 50% Fibo retracement rate of 17.61. The pair seems to have lost some upward momentum after hitting a high of 17.70. The rate of 17.61 will swing from a resistance to a support and a break below it will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the neckline of the updated green parallel channel and lower towards the orange 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.50 (I’ll drop a daily timeframe in the comments for context) and the green 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.46 (support range 1). Fundamentally there is not much supporting a strong pullback for the rand so the red zone between 17.46 and 17.50 is looking like an attractive buy zone (s1). The January risk-on sentiment was dealt a reality check last week which has seen dollar strengthen across the board and US equity markets are looking poised to pull back from their current overbought zones, which is rand negative. In that breath, it is however not unlikely that we see a deeper pullback into the range between 17.30 and 17.38 (s2). Technical indicators on the 4H chart is supporting this pullback; the RSI is trending downwards after falling out of the overbought zone and the buy signal of the MACD is losing momentum and may switch to a sell signal if the expected pull back materializes. Regarding our daily indicators, the RSI is still trending higher and the MACD buy signal is still solid. Looking over at the DXY, the index hit its 50-day MA resistance rate at 103.642 and its technical indicators are also supportive of a pullback for the greenback.
by Goose96
3
Reassessment timeTime to reassess my position on the rand. I expected the 50-day MA rate of 17.15 to hold support for the pair during Wednesday’s turbulent session but Powell’s dovish comments regarding the Fed’s “successful fight against inflation” sent the dollar packing across the board. Equity markets staged an aggressive rally since Powell failed to decisively comment when questioned whether he was concerned about the stock market’s strong start to the year. The SPX and NDX have rallied roughly 2.67% and 5.76%, respectively, since Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. Risk-on sentiment certainly gripped the market in the past two session and the rand hopped on and rode the wave all the down to the 200-day MA level of 16.95. The break below the 38.2% green Fibo rate and the top of the green first impulse wave theoretically invalidates the 5-wave impulse higher towards 17.60 as previously predicted. A break and close below the green 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 16.99 and the 200-day MA rate of 16.95 will allow the rand to pull the pair back onto the yearly low of 16.70, that is if the current risk-on sentiment is maintained. On the flip side a close above the 50-day MA rate of 17.15 will see the rand weaken back towards the resistance range of 17.39 and 17.50. The DXY pulled back most its gains yesterday following the FOMC demolishing of the greenback, so some rationality is coming back to the market. Given the current local uncertainties and easing of commodity prices, particularly platinum, I don’t see the rand holding the pair below the psychological level of 17.00. Technically the 4h MACD is losing momentum and looks set to cross to a buy signal and the RSI has bounced convincingly off the oversold zone which is rand negative. Don’t forget about today’s NFP’s print, it has the potential to move the markets later this afternoon.
by Goose96
12