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USDZAR

Oscillations around 200-day MA support (short-term)The rand managed to pull the pair below the 200-day MA, currently at 16.82, last week Thursday following the US CPI print. The pair is however finding support around its 200-day MA and the dollar strength in today's early morning session has seen the pair blast up to the blue 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.12. The macro risk-on factors mentioned below are rand positive, but the technical indicators are not. The divergence on the RSI and the buy signal on the MACD have me leaning towards another test of the 50-day MA rate of 17.19 and a break higher towards the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 17.39 and the current yearly high of 17.44. The US CPI print for December added fresh wind into the risk-on sails as the CPI result was in line with expectations at 6.5% and 0.6% lower than November’s print. Last week’s lower than expected initial jobless claims coupled with the strong December non-farm payrolls data is also supportive of the narrative of a strong US labour market. On paper US inflation seems to be easing and its labour market is looking resilient which has the market optimistic for a ‘soft landing’ following the current rate hiking cycle. The current risk-on sentiment in the markets can also be seen in the early year gains for the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 which has gained roughly 5.50% and 7.02%, respectfully, since the start of the year.
Long
by Goose96
2
USDZARTrade are still running patience pays, Big changes for state companies and nationalising the Reserve Bank – here are key proposals from the ANC The ANC suggested that measures be taken to contain state debt and said that the introduction of a wealth tax be considered to reduce inequality. The draft policy documents also reiterate that the government should establish a state bank, even though Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has warned that the country can’t afford to fund it. Central Bank The documents state that the “historic anomaly of the private ownership of the South African Reserve Bank must be corrected, in a manner that does not enrich speculators or overburden the fiscus.” The SARB is one of a handful of global central banks owned by investors — including individuals, commercial banks and pension funds — though its shareholders have no say over monetary policy or the appointment of its governors and Monetary Policy Committee. While the ANC first decided in 2017 that the state should own the central bank, the process — which will require a change to the Reserve Bank Act and an agreement on the price of shares — has stalled. The ANC called on the SARB to “implement monetary policy in a balanced manner, taking into account growth, employment, and exchange rate factors.” The Reserve Bank implements its inflation-targeting mandate in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth, in line with the constitution, and has repeatedly said the obstacles to bolstering output fall outside the scope of monetary policy.
Long
by Mike_SnD
2
USDZAR possible drop to support level!Currency Pair : USDZAE Possible direction : Bearish Technical Analysis : Price has formed multiple liquidity grab on the 4h timeframe after an strong impulse from the resistance level. As long term trend is bearish, highly likely this price will continue to drop to support level Possible trade recommendation : Bearish as per chart sketch Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
Short
by ForexWizard01
Daily USDZAR 50-day and 200-day MA squeezeThe DXY and the US 10-year yield fell sharply following Friday’s better than expected non-farm payrolls report for the month of December 2021 which saw the pair reject the 50-day MA at 17.30 as well as the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 17.44. The dollar started this week on the back foot in the local session which has allowed the rand to test the psychological rate of 17.00. The pair is currently oscillating between its 200-day MA at 16.76 and the 50-day MA at 17.30 with no clear direction as of yet. As per my weekly timeframe idea (link in the description) a failed break below the support range between 16.80-16.86 could see the pair break above the 50-day MA and higher towards the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.87. A break below 16.80 will however allow the rand to pull the pair to the orange 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.36. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is showing divergence which is rand negative and has me leaning towards a break above 17.30 over a break below 16.76. The MACD is currently holding an unconvincing buy signal so I’m not placing any significance on it at the moment. I’ll update the idea since I’m not giving any conclusive direction for the pair.
by Goose96
USDZAR Price Starts To RallyPrice has been trading bearish for a while now this is a potential corrective A-B-C Zig-Zag move. The wave (C) is a possible Ending Contracting Diagonal Pattern. The wave sure seems very short and may not be complete as of yet. We know from a Zig-Zag pattern that waves A and C are often equal so we do have to keep in mind that we could still possibly see a sell-off this would be a Leading Diagonal but not Ending, but for the most part, we definitely are bullish.
Long
by Weshareio
3
Rand looking positive heading into year-end.The USD/ZAR pair seems to be in an ABC corrective wave pattern after completing a 5-wave impulse that commenced in April this year. Following last week's presidency scare, the rand has been able to pull the pair back below the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.50. Positively for the rand, it managed to keep the pair below the 50-day MA resistance rate of 17.74 and the neckline of the upward blue channel. The major support rates that need to give way for further rand strength as we head into year-end sits on the 38.2% Fibo rate of 16.87 and the major support of 16.80, the 61.8% Fibo retracement from the rand post covid bull run. As long as 16.80 holds the possibility of seeing 19.34 still remains. I'm however expecting a re-test of the support range between 16.80 and 16.86 and a break below this range will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the 200-day MA of 16.50. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is showing bearish divergence, which is rand positive. Conversely, there is currently a buy signal on the MACD following last week's presidency scare. Apart from increased loadshedding and electricity uncertainty the fundamentals for the rand are looking relatively positive. SA GDP increased 1.6% q-o-q in 3Q2022, putting the economy back above pre-pandemic levels. Agriculture grew 19.2% in this period which will boost exports going into year-end which is rand positve. SA 10-year government bonds currently yield 9.105%, so the carry trade is still strong as US 10-year treasuries currently sit at 3.540%, down from the highs of 4.25% in October. In terms of commodities (the rand behaves as a commodity currency) I mainly look at platinum. Platinum is currently trading around $990 per ounce, up 19.57% from the lows we saw in August.
Short
by Goose96
3
South African Rand in no mans land but can strengthen soonIt's been an interesting development with the USDZAR. Since it broke out of April's uptrend, the price is now retesting the resistance (which was support). I suspect that the price will be oscillating between the range of 17.63 and 16.91 in a box formation for a few weeks. Only if the price breaks above or below, will we get some sign of where the rand is going. For instance, if it breaks below, it would have formed an Inverse Cup and Handle showing major downside for the USD to come (which we can hope for). If the price breaks out, the fakeout will spook the bears and the price will run up to ATH... I'm bearish overall, but only time will tell.
by Timonrosso
1