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Usdzarlong

Potential Short-Term Long for USDZAR?blI have denoted the two movements I believe are possible given the technical analysis I have conducted with two different coloured sets of arrows. The purple arrows denote the possibility of price making a more immediate rebound from the lower bound of the daily pennant against which it currently has support, possibly to the upper bound of the 4H channel or the upper bound of the daily pennant, the yellow arrows denote the possibility of a short term break of the daily pennant to the 4H support zone, prior to re entry of the daily pennant. Both possibilities fall in line with the bullish price trend associated with the lower bound of the daily pennant. I will be trading this on the 1H should the black countertrend line I have drawn in be broken correctly. Note has to be made of the MPC meeting this week. I am only trading this pair on the 1H given the unpredictability of long term movements.
Long
by Papache
Potential Short-Term Long/Short for USDZAR Cont.I have denoted the two movements I believe are probable given the technical analysis I have done with two different coloured sets of arrows. In both scenarios I believe there may be a test of the upper bound of the 4H channel prior to the movement taking place. The purple arrows denote the movement I believe will take place if the 4H channel is re-entered and the bottom bound of the 1H channel is broken, which I believe may lead to a bearish price movement to the lower bound of 4H channel before a bullish price movement takes place. The green arrows denote the movement I believe will take place if the 4H channel remains broken after the test, after which I believe the 1H channel I have drawn in will continue to be respected to the 4H resistance zone before making a bearish price movement. I'm trading the USDZAR strictly on the H1 given the unpredictable nature of its longer term movements. Let me know if you agree/disagree.
by Papache
Potential Short-Term Long/Short for USDZARI have denoted the two movements I believe are probable given the technical analysis I have done with two different coloured sets of arrows. The purple arrows denote the movement I believe will take place if the H4 trendline I have drawn in is not correctly broken, in that case I believe price will move to the lower bound of H4 channel before making a bullish price movement. The yellow arrows denote the movement I believe will take place if the H4 trendline is correctly broken, after which I believe the H1 channel I have drawn in will continue to be respected to the upper bound of the H4 channel before making a bearish price movement. Both of these expected outcomes fall in line with the USDZAR's short term bearish trend. I'm trading the USDZAR strictly on the H1 given the unpredictable nature of its longer term movements. Let me know if you agree/disagree.
by Papache
1
USDZAR 18.86470 -0.98% IDEAGood Day Traders... A LOOK AT USDZAR IN THE COMING WEEKS >> IF YOU LIKE THIS IDEA KINDLY LEAVE A LIKE AND COMMENT... KINDLY FOLLOW AS WELL FOR MORE SWING AND DAY TRADE IDEAS, APPRECIATE IT. > ITS STILL EARLY TO ASSUME THAT THE USDZAR HAS FOUND ITS ROOF AND WE WONT BE SEEING HIGHER BREAKOUTS. > RAND FIRMED LAST WEEK AS THE GOV DISCUSSED MEASURES TO CONTAIN THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 EVEN THOUGH STOCKS FELL > PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA PLANS TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY AS WE ARE TO ENTER STAGE 4 OF THE LOCKDOWN WHICH WE'LL SEE MORE BUSINESSES BEGIN TO OPERATE WHAT EFFECT WILL THAT HAVE ON THE ECONOMY IS YET TO BE SEEN BUT CASES OF THE COVID-19 ARE ON THE RISE... > THE OIL CRASH ALSO AFFECTED THE ZAR NEGATIVELY > SO WHERE TO ON THE RAND , ONLY TIME WILL TELL TECHNICALLY THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS I'M LOOKING AT THIS WEEK > WE SEE THE ZAR IN A RISING CHANNEL, WILL THE CHANNEL HOLD ON THE 4H OR ARE WE BREAKING WITH THE BEARS... WE'LL SEE HOW IT GOES BUT THE ASCENDING CHANNEL IS STILL IN PLAY FOR NOW.....
by PULEMokhothu
USDZAR Bullish or Bearish???In my previous analyses I have provided reasons as to why I considered the USDZAR bullish for the medium to long term but it seems for the short term at least we may be seeing bearish price movements. I believe we're seeing this because of weakening of the USD and in part due to overbought levels on the daily time frame, meaning its a necessary pull back if we are to see good momentum going forward in terms of bullish action, also if you refer to the gann fan drawn in that I had also mentioned in my previous analyses you'll see we currently rest on the 3/1 ratio line which I spoke about earlier last week when price broke through the very respected 2/1 ratio line. I did not want to rely too heavily on the fan, however it does coincide with previous support + the ascending wedge and was respected for quite some time, and as such it's my belief that if price is to move in a bullish direction it's going to happen sooner rather than later (2 days left till May ).
Long
by Papache
1
Are We Still Bullish On The USDZAR???Nothing that has happened since the beginning of the week has deviated to the extent required for me to change my personal opinion of this pair, in my view it is still bullish and in line with the overall trend, if your mind is changing based on the sporadic price action around these levels, ask yourself why you're actually bullish on this pair, and if bearish why you're actually bearish on this pair. I've already read the headlines but what does the economic stimulus package actually mean for the ZAR, yes the world wants the USD to be reigned back but when? Let me know what you think.
Long
by Papache
USDZAR Medium Term Long Starting to Emerge?The resistance I've previously mentioned in my analysis has been broken, not decisively, however it's an important time to be watching what price does next. I personally see price retesting the support before it continues on to the next resistance as I've illustrated, I would advise waiting for the retest before getting into a long position as it would mitigate some of the risk should we fall back below the support. Check out my linked ideas to see what I've had to say about the USDZAR for the coming two weeks. Let me know your opinion and if you agree/disagree.
Long
by Papache
13
USDZAR Long UpdateI've personally closed my position as I'm unsure of how much momentum the push has to reach or exceed R19 overnight here in South Africa, however I won't be losing sleep over the last few pips of the move should it complete its trajectory, I am not a fan of the candle forming on the H4 (I acknowledge I get more skittish as the trade approaches my target) and would rather wait to get in on a different move in either direction as things develop. Let me know what you think and how profitable the move was for you.
by Papache
USDZAR Long UPDATEThe US unemployment claims were at 5,245K as opposed to the forecast 5,105K, down from the previous 6,615K. The deviation from the forecast being so low would mean this potentially bad news has not affected our long position as greatly as it could have. I have also identified a descending channel that's much more visible on the H1, this might have been a necessary downward move so as to prevent the H1 from becoming too overbought during the move higher up on the H4, it rests as I type on the turnaround line that I'm using to temporarily close my position if I see it break through with the breaking rule. In any case all is the same as I spoke of earlier today (linked). Let me know what you think.
Long
by Papache
USDZAR Long to continue a while longer?There is some consolidation happening around the current zone, however there has been no strong bearish rejection from the zone as yet and no worrying divergence happening at the moment. The turnaround could still happen and the turnaround line I've drawn in represents the point at which I'd close my long position (temporarily) should it be broken by the breaking rule. Otherwise I still have my sights set on R19 to the dollar. Unemployment claims happening today could affect this position so I'm watching rather carefully. Let me know what you guys think.
Long
by Papache