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$USINTR -Feds Cuts RatesECONOMICS:USINTR (November/2024) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September, in line with expectations. Policymakers reiterated their previous message that they will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to borrowing costs. On the economic front, the Fed noted that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated. However, officials removed a reference they had “gained greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward the target.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
-United States PCE (October/2024)$USCPCEPEPIMM 0.3% (October/2024) source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2024, the highest gain in five months, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in August, matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.3%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-Year, core PCE prices rose 2.7%, the same as in August, but above forecasts of 2.6%. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
XAUUSD | Market outlookGold Reserve Diversification: At the LBMA conference, central bank representatives shared that gold purchases are driven by financial and strategic goals. US Election Impact: Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections, with Trump and Harris closely tied in polls, is prompting banks to hedge risks. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are also boosting gold, with Israel expressing readiness to target Iran's military infrastructure. Price Trends: Long-term trend: Upward, aiming to break the historical high of 2685.00 . Potential targets: 2750.00 and 2810.00 if consolidation succeeds. Support and Correction: If the price drops to 2602.00 , long positions toward 2685.00 are favourable. A breakout below 2602.00 could trigger a correction targeting 2546.00 and 2471.00 . Medium-term trend: Correction: Last week’s correction did not reach key support at 2575.61–2564.61 . If a reversal occurs, the price could rise to 2685.61 and potentially 2712.70–2701.70 . Correction Scenario: If another correction develops, the price may revisit 2575.61–2564.61 , followed by growth toward 2625.00 and 2685.00 .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
TRUMP vs BIDEN : These 7 Charts Reveal AllThese charts will point out not only the difference between 4 year terms, but also the effect of the worldwide Coronavirus on different sectors. Just so you know, I am not advising for or against either candidate solely on what they could do or have done for a certain industry. Instead, this post aims to inform and point out the market's response during each Presidential period. It's also important to consider the effect of Covid (marked by the purple line). 1) DXY / TVC:DXY The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the U.S. dollar's value relative to the majority of its most significant trading partners, including the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). Under President Trump, the DXY fell 14% the moment he took office. The DXY then recovered the 14% over the next two years, but dropped again as the Coronavirus crisis was declared a global pandemic in May 2020. Under President Biden, the DXY rose from post-covid lows by 27%, then retraced 12% unto where it is now trading steadily. I'll use the following chart below as a reference to how we will be measuring (the difference between inherited point to exit, as seen by the measuring tool). Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -13% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +19% 2) Consumer Confidence Index / ECONOMICS:USCCI This Index index measures Americans' assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The consumer confidence remained fairly stable under Trump, but fell drastically with the announcement of the Covid pandemic. Biden inherited a declining consumer confidence, but the CCI managed to recover with 57.6% after hitting the lowest lows during the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic. The CCI has not been able to recover to pre-covid highs, showing that consumers are not yet comfortable with the current state of economic affairs. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -19.5% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -2.4% 3) Inflation / ECONOMICS:USIRYY Initially the inflation rate was fairly stable under Trump, and then started to fall drastically, dropping -95%... until Covid. Since Biden took office, the inflation rate increased by 550%, but managed to drop back down by 62% after peaking during covid. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -44.8% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +141% 4) S&P 500 / SP:SPX Trump talked-up the stockmarket as a measure of his presidency when he was in office. (Not that the SPX is something presidents have much control over, but let's take a look at it anyway). The s&p 500 index of big American firms is higher since Biden took office, but it rose twice as much during Trump’s first 1,000 days in office. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +63% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +40.8% 5) United States Employment Rate / ECONOMICS:USEMR In United States, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population. The USEMR was increasing steadily up to 2% when Covid hit. Under the Biden administration, unlike many European countries, America decided to give money to workers, rather than pay companies to keep people in employment. The share in work fell, but America’s economy bounced back more quickly than Europe’s. Biden administration takes credit for a 4.8% increase since taking office. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: -14.5% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +4.8% 6) Unemployment Rate / FRED:UNRATE Trump inherited a steadily decreasing unemployment rate from the Obama administration. The UNRATE continued to drop until -25.8% after which, again, covid. It is true that the Biden administration inherited a tough one here, and there has been a 15% increase after bottoming out during April 2023. Unfortunately, this chart seems to be steadily increasing. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +36.4% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -39% 7) Money Supply / ECONOMICS:USM2 US M2 refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily-available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits. Historically, when the money supply dramatically increased in global economies, there would be a following dramatic increase in prices of goods and services, which would then follow monetary policy with the aim to maintain inflation levels low. Trump administration inherited a steeply increasing supply which kept increasing rapidly. Currently, under the Biden administration, the M2 seems to be moving towards an equilibrium. Change from inherited point to exit: TRUMP: +45% BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +7.7% ______________________ Note that these are not THE ONLY charts we can look at. In fact, I encourage you to post yours below! Which other measures are you looking at? Treasury, perhaps Bonds? Feel free to share them and lets compare!
TVC:DXY
by CryptoCheck-
6
TSLA - Weekly Inflection PointDaily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for consolidating momentum. In turn I watch for breaks that releases the built up energy. Previous Analysis:
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Mikhiavelli
Massive US Unemployment Move Inbound On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession. Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever since. Historically, this means that we can expect an aggressive move in unemployment in the following months.
FRED:UNRATE
by zkdev
Macro Monday 31 ~ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Key Levels)Macro Monday 31 U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index This Index is compiled from a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to assess the health of manufacturing activity in the state of Texas. It provides insight into factors such as production, employment, orders, and prices, offering a snapshot of economic conditions in the region. Why is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Important? ▫️ As stated above the index covers manufacturing activity in the state of Texas, the state of Texas ranks 2nd only to California in factory production & comes in at 1st as an exporter of manufactured goods, thus Texas is an important state for gauging manufacturing & production in the U.S. economy. ▫️ Texas also contributes an incredible c.10% towards the U.S. Manufacturing gross domestic product making the index an important metric to consider towards potential GDP trends in the U.S. ▫️ The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (DFMI) is one of several regional manufacturing surveys that feed into the national Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The PMI is released later this week on Thursday 1st Feb thus the DFMI on Monday will give us an early indication of the potential direction of the PMI later in the week. FYI, I will be covering the PMI for you on Thursday so stay tuned for that. How to read the index? A reading above 0 indicates an expansion of the factory activity compared to the previous month; below 0 represents a contraction; while 0 indicates no change. The Chart The chart only dates back to 2005 so we have a limited dataset however we can still see definitive levels of importance and trends over this shorter historic backdrop. A few findings from the chart: The + 36.8 Level Since December 2005 any time we have hit the +36.8 level on the chart it has typically represented a peak in manufacturing and production signaling that a decline would likely follow. This has occurred 3 times and each time within 20 – 23 months of this +36.8 peak we had a recession or a financial crisis. 1) December 2005 21 Months later we had the Great Financial Crisis. 2) June 2018 20 months later we had the COVID-19 Crash. 3) April 2021 23 months later the U.S Banking Crisis occurred in March 2023 resulting in 3 small to mid size banks failing. - The remaining banks being saved by the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) which appears to have successfully contained the contagion for now. The BTFP is ceasing in March 2024 👀 ▫️ We can see above that in the event we reach the +36.8 level in the future, history informs us that within 20 – 23 months major economic issues will likely present. If we had known this back in April 2022. After April 2022 the S&P500 fell 15% to its recent lows. ▫️ The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) could declare the current period we are in as a soft recession. For the last six recessions, on average, the announcement of when a recession started was declared 8 months after the fact meaning we will would only get confirmation of a recession once we are 6 - 8 months into it. Its worth noting that some recessions were confirmed by the NBER after the recession was over. - 36.8 Level A reading below the -36.8 level has historically confirmed a recession. We have not hit this level since the COVID-19 Crash with May 2020 being the last time we have been at this level. Periods in Contractionary Territory There have been 2 previous periods where we have remained in contractionary territory for greater than 6 months. These are worth reviewing as we have been in contractionary territory for the 20 months now (April 2022 - Present). 1) Sept 2007 – Nov 2009: We fell into contractionary territory during the Great Financial Crisis for 26 months. From 2009 to 2016 the index seemed week oscillating around the 0 level and not really breaking out into persistent expansionary territory until 2017 forward. 2) Jan 2015 – Oct 2016: We fell into contractionary territory for 21 months however there was no recession. 3) Apr 2022 – Present: We are currently on month 20 of contraction. Now this could be just like point 2 above whereby we recover to expansionary territory in month 21 or 22 (Jan - Feb 2024) however if we do not, we are moving towards a timeline similar to point 1 which was the 26 month Great Financial Crisis. Q1 of 2024 will be very revealing in terms of what we can expect next. In the event we end up in contraction for 26 months or if we hit the -36.8 level we can presume, based on history, that we likely have a recession on our hands. And, if we recover into expansionary territory maybe we have got away with it this time 🙂 You can clearly see that the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is significant for assessing the U.S. economy because it provides timely insights into the health of one of the nation's key economic sectors: manufacturing & production. Since Texas is a major hub for manufacturing activity, trends observed in the Dallas Fed index can offer valuable indications of broader economic trends. It is one of several regional indices that contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the manufacturing landscape, aiding policymakers, investors such as ourselves, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy. The current economic environment just gets more and more interesting every week Thanks for coming along again folks 🫡 PUKA
ECONOMICS:USDFMI
by PukaCharts
U.S Core PCE Price Index (MoM)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in December of 2023, aligned with market estimates, and picking up slightly from the 0.1% increase in November. From the previous year, Core PCE prices edged 2.9% higher, undershooting market estimates of 3% to mark the lowest reading since February 2021. The data extended the disinflation trend in prices measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, consistent with previous signals of rate cuts to be delivered this year. Regarding the whole national PCE that includes energy and food, prices rose by 0.2% from the prior month and 2.6% from the prior year, consistent with expectations. Prices for goods rose by less than 0.1% from 2022, while those for services remained elevated at 3.9%. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
The US Economy Has Flashed ResilienceThe potential for a stronger dollar looms ahead, driven by the robustness of the US economy, which enables Federal Reserve officials to pursue a more gradual reduction in interest rates compared to other major central banks. Despite the Federal Reserve's assertive approach to raising interest rates, the US economy has demonstrated resilience, with inflation gaining momentum toward the end of 2023. This defies expectations on Wall Street, where some anticipated an earlier initiation of interest rate cuts, possibly as early as March. Additionally, the dollar finds support in the persisting uncertainty surrounding significant global elections, particularly the impending US presidential showdown. By March, the candidates will be revealed, and unlike the scenario in 2016, the likelihood of a victory for former President Donald Trump is expected to be factored into the market well in advance.
TVC:DXYLong
by Elite_Forex
Dollar Index ($DXY): "The next Step"At the beginning of the year I already showed my idea about the upside potential of the US dollar (see chart below), and today I can only confirm what I said earlier. If from a technical point of view, my idea continues to be bearish on stocks markets, these considerations of mine could also have a logical sense and the scenario shown on chart could really happen. In my previous analysis (February 2023) I showed the potential dollar rally from the area around $101, hence the Price Action showed something like a "Double Bottom" Pattern on daily and intraday chart: (Click & Play on Chart below) If we look at the S&P500 index over the long term, from a technical point of view, it may have completed a first bull cycle that started way back in 1872: (Click & Play on Chart below) At the same time, this potential "Perfect Storm" should also affect the real estate sector in the mid-term, with a contraction in prices (U.S. Case Shiller Home Price): (Click & Play on Chart below) ...what's your opinion about this analysis? Trade with care! Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
TVC:DXYLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
16
$DJIA -Awaiting Apex's End *2WBig Move incoming for Dow Jones Industrial Average. AMEX:DJIA has created Triangle's Apex approaching the end . Note that this is a Neutral Pattern, it can go each ways ; Bearish and Bullish. (depending on TVC:DXY , Geo-Politics & Macro Economics conditions) For now, it's better to observe and stay sharp and await for further confirmations. Nothing is clear yet TA speaking for AMEX:DJIA AMEX:DJIA is one of the Heaviest Financial Sector for United States. That being said, it is very important to always have a lookout of its Price Action and Trends Directions for further clarification of how other US Financial Sectors will perform. A Change of Charachter would definetely bring more clarification of reaching levels of ATH or LOW At the time of this idea being released price is finding some support at S/R zone and 20-50EMA over maintaining their bullish crossover. For now, it's better to observe and stay sharp and await for further confirmations. Nothing is clear yet TA speaking for AMEX:DJIA , as well taking in to consideration The Debt Ceiling decision that is yet to take place. TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking any trading related activities based soly on this idea.
TVC:DJI
by Mr_J__fx
USDebtCeilingCrisis.ComLet’s make some noise for the 11th hour party people. Bipartisan talks between US President Biden and House Republicans over the debt ceiling crisis have finally come to a resolution. Well, in theory at least since there is the small matter of Congress having to vote on it later this week. US lawmakers might balk at the idea that this is an 11th hour deal since the much touted ‘hard deadline’ of the 1st of June has now moved to the 5th of June. Any chances we could see that pushed forward by a few more days in the event of further brinkmanship during the Congressional vote on the deal? Make no mistake. Regardless of the real hard deadline before the US technically defaults on its public debt, this will have been an 11th hour deal. The thing with 11th hour deals whether they’re related to business, divorce settlements, ransom/hostage negotiations or drug deals is that they tend to be equally bad for both parties but at least everyone walks away equally disappointed. A deal as critical as the one needed to tackle the debt ceiling crisis should have been done and dusted well before this game of chicken ended in both parties swerving just before the head on collision. The US debt ceiling issue is a bubble. The limit has been lifted 78 times since 1960 and is quite the magician’s trick. Raising the limit each time a ceiling is reached and then kicking the issue into the long grass until the next time negotiations need to take place is dangerous enough but the way in which this current deal has been tentatively reached has created micro tears in this bubble and only time will tell if the bubble bursts at some point in the not- too-distant future. Even a smooth run through Congress later this week will be short-term relief for markets as the possibility of a crash depends on the extent of any liquidity leaving the system and where exactly that liquidity drain comes from as soon as the US Treasury turns on the T-bill tap to full blast after a confirmed deal. These are exciting times for FX traders as we trade the bull runs, the bear runs and the crashes. Keep yourself educated and informed at all times. And remember that whenever you go to the market, be careful out there. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
4
"De-Dollarization" is coming...?The U.S. dollar has dominated global trade and capital flows over many decades. However, many nations are looking for alternatives to the greenback to reduce their dependence on the United States. This graphic catalogs the rise of the U.S. dollar as the dominant international reserve currency, and the recent efforts by various nations to de-dollarize and reduce their dependence on the U.S. financial system. The United States became, almost overnight, the leading financial power after World War I. The country entered the war only in 1917 and emerged far stronger than its European counterparts. As a result, the dollar began to displace the pound sterling as the international reserve currency and the U.S. also became a significant recipient of wartime gold inflows. The dollar then gained a greater role in 1944, when 44 countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement, creating a collective international currency exchange regime pegged to the U.S. dollar which was, in turn, pegged to the price of gold. By the late 1960s, European and Japanese exports became more competitive with U.S. exports. There was a large supply of dollars around the world, making it difficult to back dollars with gold. President Nixon ceased the direct convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971. This ended both the gold standard and the limit on the amount of currency that could be printed. Although it has remained the international reserve currency, the U.S. dollar has increasingly lost its purchasing power since then. Russia and China’s Steps Towards De-Dollarization Concerned about America’s dominance over the global financial system and the country’s ability to ‘weaponize’ it, other nations have been testing alternatives to reduce the dollar’s hegemony. As the United States and other Western nations imposed economic sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and the Chinese government have been teaming up to reduce reliance on the dollar and to establish cooperation between their financial systems. Since the invasion in 2022, the ruble-yuan trade has increased eighty-fold. Russia and Iran are also working together to launch a cryptocurrency backed by gold, according to Russian news agency Vedmosti. In addition, central banks (especially Russia’s and China’s) have bought gold at the fastest pace since 1967 as countries move to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. How Other Countries are Reducing Dollar Dependence De-dollarization it’s a theme in other parts of the world: - In recent months, Brazil and Argentina have discussed the creation of a common currency for the two largest economies in South America. - In a conference in Singapore in January, multiple former Southeast Asian officials spoke about de-dollarization efforts underway. - The UAE and India are in talks to use rupees to trade non-oil commodities in a shift away from the dollar, according to Reuters. - For the first time in 48 years, Saudi Arabia said that the oil-rich nation is open to trading in currencies besides the U.S. dollar. Despite these movements, few expect to see the end of the dollar’s global sovereign status anytime soon. Currently, central banks still hold about 60% of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars. What will happen to the dollar in the next few years? What is your opinion? Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
7
U.S. Case Shiller Home Price Index in contraction?As you can see from the Monthly Chart, U.S. Case Shiller Home Price Index could experience an interesting price contraction in short-medium term, could this also be a clear sign of a potential economic contraction, recession? If this happens, we shouldn't be surprised, the Fed is doing everything to fight inflation in the United States... Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
ECONOMICS:USCSHPI
by TheAnonymousBanker
3
Things are looking very ugly, day by dayRate hike will continue as Jerome has no way out now. 50 basis points is my projection. Experts cannot see any concrete signs that economy is under control, in which they are right. Wall St banker's narrative are switching from soft landing, to crash landing. US money supply has shrinked while yield curve remain heavily inverted. Uh ohh. Congress voted to end emergency allotment. This means millions of Americans will lose $3 Billion a month food stamp benefits. Debt levels across all segments & categories are at record high. Layoffs are still on-going and is not stopping. Stay liquid and conserve ammunition. The bottom is not in yet. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
CME_MINI:ESH2023
by XeroAcademy
Elliott Wave Science Meets the Consumer Price IndexIt would be awesome if TradingView offered a candlestick chart for CPI but considering its only updated once per month, maybe the line graph/chart is the best option (not sure how that works). As for the data available to me, I've done a best effort markup using the science of Elliott Wave Theory. Considering the fluctuations seen on the M(onthly) chart, I believe its possible that CPI is sitting in the midst of a shallow Wave 4 correction. With this in mind, I find it possible that the number stretches into the low-mid 7.xx range between now and March. From there we may see a 2023 low within the 4.xx level. I will share my thoughts here as I know there is much interest in "what will the CPI numbers be?"... Being that this CPI data is directly based on the actions of humans and the habits that we act on, it should work pretty well with Elliott Wave Theory. I will keep this post fluid and apply analytical updates as monthly results are publicly announced. Remember these three important things: 1) trade the chart instead of the news and 2) stay safe /3) don't drown!
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by DigitalSurfTrading
Reduce inflation rate from 6.5% to 3% this years, says WilliamsFOMC's Williams speech did not do much, as he was echoing what Jerome Powell already said 2 days ago. Rate hikes to resume, but at slower pace. Williams mentioned that inflation rate in the US should cool off to 3% this year, now at 6.5%. That's 50% lower. Question is, how much more rate hike is required to push inflation down by 50%? Will that be somehow somewhat slowdown the US economy as a whole? A whole lot more tightening will need to take place, as I see it. Lending has already begun to tighten and credit is more difficult to obtain due to stricter requirements by banks. Hmm... how will this play out? By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy #usdollar #usd #dxy #interestrates #useconomy #federalreserve #FOMC #inflation
TVC:DXY
by XeroAcademy