Uselections2020
Head and shoulders may be formingI'm expecting DXY strength in the next few days with stimulus hopes before elections in the US fall. The YM1!, NQ1! & ES1! are struggling to hold on to a critical support level and if they breach the supports, further downside will lead for more DXY demand
ES1! ->
YM1! - >
NQ1! ->
Parts of Europe are heading for lockdowns with some countries have already implemented lockdowns. The demand for the oil linked currency will be low as movement becomes more restricted.
S&P500 Ranging
From the CFTC COT Weekly Data, net positions remain negative at 2.4k. This shows weakness.
From a technical perspective, weakness is showing with price ranging within resistance and support levels. If a bear breakout happens, the February 2020 pivot high will be exposed. If a bullish breakout happens, the 3516.5 resistance will be open for a test.
From a fundamental perspective, stimulus negotiations are still on going with Nancy Pelosi saying that a deal is possible as they are making progress with the Secretary Mnuchin. However, the US elections weigh heavily on the US equity markets as it is a highly contested one. Analysts are expecting a blue wave which might mean more fiscal stimulus is on the way. I'm expecting volatility until the elections are concluded.
SPX500 update - short from 3500Hello traders and analysts,
Here is update to our outlook previous ideas posted below.
We have our confirmations - everything aligns - is the election the trigger?
or will we overextend?
We are holding sells - let's see how long this can go for.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Oct20,Wk3Rooting for a trend reversal trade, the head and shoulders do give a potential push to the upside. When the market opens on Monday, a break and close above the red box(sell zone) indicates a strong signal on a bull run on the technical side.
Traders have to watch closely the development of the US election as any other dramatic move can affect and influence the market movement.
Trump will win?despite of the news that Biden is leading i think Trump will get re-elected and will have the adequate acceptance rate by date 27 October.
Trump vs Biden - Who Will Win? -Elliott Wave Applied Hey traders,
Elliott wave theory tracks sentiment that moves from optimism to pessimism. These are cycles that occur everywhere in our life not only on the markets. So EW theory its a tool that can be applied even to politics. I will look at EW cycles on US Presidential elections and wondering if we can see a surprise here or shift in trend.
What are your thoughts, who will win? Please leave an answer in the commentary below.
Take care,
GH
AUD USD ShortHello traders and analysts,
We have our sells activated - the reason behind this is looking on the weekly timeframe - the wicks have been removed by the recent candle closes on the daily.
Trade 1 has been taken,
Trade 2 - un-activated - as price may attempt to settle around 72.XX
Upcoming
We will share our new analysis for DAX30 soon.
We cannot see a specific level holding for the future.
Why are we selling?
Aussie budget looked to really help alot of average Australians, but failing for Queensland to open to NSW and Tassie, WA for freedom of complete movement will be damaging as Summer season comes.
Stimulus is provided but Scomo's government is worried about the deficit.
USD side:
Price is volatile - during the election process in the US, the worlds relationships are affected
The election is coming closer <30 days.
The S&P500 and NAS100 are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers.
The stocks have recovered well from a V - shaped recovery, too fast with big price action gaps.
Dollar is strengthening.
Shift in presidential change of power?
Covid 19 - second wave has concerned EU governments - with further pumping of money to "control" the costs of job losses and curb closures.
We have established a great supply or essentially a strongly overvalued market again in quick succession, however price will be giving some good areas to sell this aligns with Commodity currencies like the Aussie.
This is a long term sell. price can and will invalidate.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
Thanks,
Team Lupa